OVATION Aurora Probability

The OVATION Prime (Oval Variation, Assessment, Tracking, Intensity, and Online Nowcasting) aurora model represents the cutting edge of real-time auroral activity monitoring, providing photographers with up-to-the-minute data on aurora probability worldwide. Developed and operated by NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center, OVATION differs fundamentally from forecast-based aurora metrics: rather than predicting geomagnetic activity hours or days ahead, it ingests live solar wind data from the DSCOVR and ACE satellites positioned at the L1 Lagrange point approximately 1.5 million kilometers sunward of Earth. These satellites measure the density, velocity, and magnetic field orientation of the solar wind plasma currently streaming toward Earth, allowing OVATION to calculate auroral energy deposition and predict the aurora oval's position and intensity with unprecedented nowcasting accuracy.

For aurora photographers, OVATION probability values ranging from 0-100% indicate the likelihood of visible aurora at your exact location right now: 0-20% suggests no auroral activity, 30-50% indicates possible faint auroras visible to cameras, 60-75% suggests moderate auroras visible to the naked eye, while 80-100% indicates strong auroral displays in progress. The key advantage of OVATION over Kp-based forecasts is temporal precision—when a coronal mass ejection or high-speed solar wind stream reaches Earth, OVATION updates within minutes to reflect the actual aurora response, while Kp values are computed hourly and represent 3-hour averages.

This makes OVATION essential for opportunistic aurora photography: even if the 3-day Kp forecast showed marginal conditions, a sudden spike in OVATION probability means active auroras are occurring right now and you should immediately head to your chosen dark sky location. PhotoWeather's Pro tier integrates OVATION Prime data for 0-2 hour nowcasting windows, complementing longer-term Kp forecasts to provide complete aurora intelligence from planning days ahead through real-time detection of active displays.