Rule
Fog Hunter
Fog Hunter Forecast for Thirlmere, Lake District
Penrith, England, United Kingdom
Thirlmere is a narrow reservoir held between the steep Helvellyn massif and the wooded slopes below Armboth Fell. Its engineered shoreline, conifer blocks, and fluctuating water edge create darker, more enclosed compositions than the Lake District’s open natural lakes.
10 matching opportunities in the 14-day forecast.
Hourly forecast scores
Forecast valid from Sep 20, 2026, 5:00 AM UTC (one hour; not an observation)Dewpoint Spread3.5°C
Visibility37440
Relative Humidity79%
Wind Speed4.1m/s
Upcoming Opportunities
When all conditions match, PhotoWeather marks an opportunity window.
Times shown in Europe/London
First upcoming window
Fog Potential at Sunset
Thirlmere
Mon, Sep 21 · 19:00–20:00 · 1h window
Low confidence
42%
🌫️Fog Probability77.1%
Dewpoint Spread: 0.3°C
Visibility: 8260 (Moderate)
Relative Humidity: 98%
Wind Speed: 2.8m/s (calm conditions)
Misty Conditions
Thirlmere
Mon, Sep 21 · 20:00–01:00
🌫️Fog Probability:82.2-91.1%
Medium
Fog Potential
Thirlmere
Tue, Sep 22 · 03:00–06:00
🌫️Fog Probability:91.1%
High
Fog Potential at Sunrise
Thirlmere
Tue, Sep 22 · 06:00–08:00
🌫️Fog Probability:86%
Medium
Misty Conditions
Thirlmere
Fri, Sep 25 · 22:00–02:00
🌫️Fog Probability:86-91.1%
Medium
Dense Fog
Thirlmere
Wed, Sep 30 · 23:00–03:00
🌫️Fog Probability:75-100%
Low
Fog Potential
Thirlmere
Fri, Oct 2 · 20:00–06:00
🌫️Fog Probability:75.8-91.1%
Low
+3 more windows in the next 14 days
72-hour requirements breakdown
When available, this detailed table covers only the stated 72-hour horizon (typically 72–168 hours, depending on available hourly data). Opportunity records above span the full 14-day forecast period, so this table does not explain that entire period. Times shown in Europe/London.
Most common blockers
Ranked across the 72-hour forecast horizon, not the full opportunity period.
- Fog Probability85% of hours
AND logic: all conditions required
Meets requirement
Misses requirement
Time Europe/London | Fog Probability ≥ 75.0% |
|---|---|
| Sun, Sep 20 | |
| Rule fails. 06:00 | Fog Probability: 0%. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 07:00 | Fog Probability: 0%. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 08:00 | Fog Probability: 0%. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 09:00 | Fog Probability: 0%. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 10:00 | Fog Probability: 0%. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 11:00 | Fog Probability: 0%. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 12:00 | Fog Probability: 0%. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 13:00 | Fog Probability: 0%. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 14:00 | Fog Probability: 0%. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 15:00 | Fog Probability: 0%. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 16:00 | Fog Probability: 0%. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 17:00 | Fog Probability: 0%. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 18:00 | Fog Probability: 0%. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 19:00 | Fog Probability: 0%. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 20:00 | Fog Probability: 0%. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 21:00 | Fog Probability: 0%. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 22:00 | Fog Probability: 0%. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 23:00 | Fog Probability: 0%. Misses requirement |
| Mon, Sep 21 | |
| Rule fails. 24:00 | Fog Probability: 0%. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 01:00 | Fog Probability: 0%. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 02:00 | Fog Probability: 0%. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 03:00 | Fog Probability: 0%. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 04:00 | Fog Probability: 0%. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 05:00 | Fog Probability: 0%. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 06:00 | Fog Probability: 0%. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 07:00 | Fog Probability: 0%. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 08:00 | Fog Probability: 0%. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 09:00 | Fog Probability: 0%. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 10:00 | Fog Probability: 0%. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 11:00 | Fog Probability: 0%. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 12:00 | Fog Probability: 0%. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 13:00 | Fog Probability: 0%. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 14:00 | Fog Probability: 46%. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 15:00 | Fog Probability: 51%. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 16:00 | Fog Probability: 69%. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 17:00 | Fog Probability: 56%. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 18:00 | Fog Probability: 60%. Misses requirement |
| Rule passes. 19:00 | Fog Probability: 77%. Meets requirement |
| Rule passes. 20:00 | Fog Probability: 91%. Meets requirement |
| Rule passes. 21:00 | Fog Probability: 91%. Meets requirement |
| Rule passes. 22:00 | Fog Probability: 91%. Meets requirement |
| Rule passes. 23:00 | Fog Probability: 91%. Meets requirement |
| Tue, Sep 22 | |
| Rule passes. 24:00 | Fog Probability: 82%. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 01:00 | Fog Probability: 71%. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 02:00 | Fog Probability: 71%. Misses requirement |
| Rule passes. 03:00 | Fog Probability: 91%. Meets requirement |
| Rule passes. 04:00 | Fog Probability: 91%. Meets requirement |
| Rule passes. 05:00 | Fog Probability: 91%. Meets requirement |
| Rule passes. 06:00 | Fog Probability: 86%. Meets requirement |
| Rule passes. 07:00 | Fog Probability: 86%. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 08:00 | Fog Probability: 71%. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 09:00 | Fog Probability: 59%. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 10:00 | Fog Probability: 0%. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 11:00 | Fog Probability: 0%. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 12:00 | Fog Probability: 0%. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 13:00 | Fog Probability: 0%. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 14:00 | Fog Probability: 0%. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 15:00 | Fog Probability: 0%. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 16:00 | Fog Probability: 0%. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 17:00 | Fog Probability: 0%. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 18:00 | Fog Probability: 0%. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 19:00 | Fog Probability: 0%. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 20:00 | Fog Probability: 0%. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 21:00 | Fog Probability: 60%. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 22:00 | Fog Probability: 67%. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 23:00 | Fog Probability: 67%. Misses requirement |
| Wed, Sep 23 | |
| Rule fails. 24:00 | Fog Probability: 67%. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 01:00 | Fog Probability: 47%. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 02:00 | Fog Probability: 47%. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 03:00 | Fog Probability: 47%. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 04:00 | Fog Probability: 47%. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 05:00 | Fog Probability: 0%. Misses requirement |
How to read: colored cells show whether each predicate requirement is met; highlighted rows mean the full rule matched (an opportunity).
Supporting forecast inputs
Additional hourly values for interpreting the forecast and any derived scores. See the separate requirements breakdown for rule logic; missing values are unavailable.
| Forecast time (Europe/London) | Clear Sky Probability (Ensemble) | Dew Point | Rainfall | Relative Humidity | Snowfall | Solar Elevation | Temperature | Total Precipitation | Vapor Pressure Deficit | Visibility | Wind Gusts | Wind Speed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, Sep 20, 2026Sunrise · Sunset | ||||||||||||
| Night | 97% | 7.7°C | 0mm | 79% | 0cm | -8.5° | 11°C | 0mm | 0.28kPa | 37440m | 10m/s | 4.1m/s |
| 97% | 7.7°C | 0mm | 79% | 0cm | 0.51° | 11°C | 0mm | 0.28kPa | 40140m | 10m/s | 4.4m/s | |
| 87% | 8.1°C | 0mm | 80% | 0cm | 8.8° | 11°C | 0mm | 0.27kPa | 39840m | 10m/s | 4.3m/s | |
| 77% | 8.4°C | 0mm | 79% | 0cm | 17° | 12°C | 0mm | 0.29kPa | 43280m | 10m/s | 4.6m/s | |
| 67% | 8.1°C | 0mm | 75% | 0cm | 25° | 12°C | 0mm | 0.36kPa | 47940m | 12m/s | 5.6m/s | |
| 61% | 8.6°C | 0mm | 76% | 0cm | 31° | 13°C | 0mm | 0.35kPa | 48360m | 12m/s | 5.7m/s | |
| 55% | 8.4°C | 0mm | 73% | 0cm | 35° | 13°C | 0mm | 0.41kPa | 52620m | 13m/s | 5.9m/s | |
| 49% | 8.5°C | 0mm | 72% | 0cm | 36° | 13°C | 0mm | 0.43kPa | 53240m | 12m/s | 5.5m/s | |
| 44% | 8.6°C | 0mm | 70% | 0cm | 35° | 14°C | 0mm | 0.48kPa | 54800m | 12m/s | 5.5m/s | |
| 39% | 8.2°C | 0mm | 69% | 0cm | 32° | 14°C | 0mm | 0.49kPa | 56820m | 11m/s | 5.3m/s | |
| 34% | 8.1°C | 0mm | 68% | 0cm | 26° | 14°C | 0mm | 0.51kPa | 57780m | 11m/s | 5.1m/s | |
| 28% | 8.2°C | 0mm | 70% | 0cm | 18° | 14°C | 0mm | 0.47kPa | 58520m | 11m/s | 4.9m/s | |
| 23% | 8.2°C | 0mm | 71% | 0cm | 10° | 13°C | 0mm | 0.44kPa | 57280m | 8.3m/s | 3.6m/s | |
| 17% | 8.2°C | 0mm | 73% | 0cm | 1.8° | 13°C | 0mm | 0.4kPa | 54840m | 6.3m/s | 2.5m/s | |
| Night | 12% | 8.5°C | 0mm | 79% | 0cm | -7.1° | 12°C | 0mm | 0.29kPa | 50560m | 3.9m/s | 1.4m/s |
| Night | 8% | 8.2°C | 0mm | 83% | 0cm | -15° | 11°C | 0mm | 0.22kPa | 46040m | 3.8m/s | 1.3m/s |
| Night | 3% | 8.7°C | 0mm | 83% | 0cm | -23° | 12°C | 0mm | 0.23kPa | 45400m | 3.1m/s | 0.8m/s |
| Night | 4% | 8.7°C | 0mm | 82% | 0cm | -29° | 12°C | 0mm | 0.25kPa | 45480m | 3m/s | 1.3m/s |
| Mon, Sep 21, 2026Sunrise · Sunset | ||||||||||||
| Night | 4% | 8.8°C | 0mm | 83% | 0cm | -33° | 12°C | 0mm | 0.23kPa | 45320m | 4.2m/s | 1.8m/s |
| Night | 5% | 8.8°C | 0mm | 85% | 0cm | -35° | 11°C | 0mm | 0.2kPa | 41160m | 4.6m/s | 1.9m/s |
| Night | 5% | 8.8°C | 0mm | 84% | 0cm | -34° | 11°C | 0mm | 0.22kPa | 41360m | 5.3m/s | 2.3m/s |
| Night | 5% | 9.1°C | 0mm | 85% | 0cm | -30° | 12°C | 0mm | 0.2kPa | 39900m | 5.4m/s | 2.3m/s |
| Night | 5% | 9.3°C | 0mm | 86% | 0cm | -24° | 12°C | 0mm | 0.19kPa | 38520m | 6.4m/s | 2.7m/s |
| Night | 3% | 10°C | 0mm | 88% | 0cm | -17° | 12°C | 0mm | 0.17kPa | 36320m | 6.8m/s | 2.8m/s |
| Night | 2% | 10°C | 0mm | 89% | 0cm | -8.8° | 12°C | 0mm | 0.16kPa | 34440m | 6.6m/s | 2.8m/s |
| 0% | 11°C | 0mm | 89% | 0cm | 0.28° | 13°C | 0mm | 0.16kPa | 34760m | 7.3m/s | 3.1m/s | |
| 0% | 11°C | 0mm | 87% | 0cm | 8.5° | 14°C | 0mm | 0.2kPa | 34840m | 8.6m/s | 3.6m/s | |
| 0% | 12°C | 0mm | 86% | 0cm | 17° | 14°C | 0mm | 0.22kPa | 36520m | 6.5m/s | 2.8m/s | |
| 0% | 12°C | 0mm | 89% | 0cm | 24° | 14°C | 0mm | 0.17kPa | 31320m | 7.4m/s | 3.4m/s | |
| 0% | 13°C | 0mm | 93% | 0cm | 30° | 14°C | 0mm | 0.11kPa | 17080m | 9.6m/s | 4.4m/s | |
| 0% | 14°C | 0mm | 89% | 0cm | 34° | 15°C | 0mm | 0.19kPa | 33460m | 8.6m/s | 3.8m/s | |
| 0% | 15°C | 0mm | 93% | 0cm | 36° | 16°C | 0mm | 0.12kPa | 24320m | 8.1m/s | 3.6m/s | |
| 0% | 15°C | 0mm | 97% | 0cm | 35° | 15°C | 0mm | 0.05kPa | 13540m | 7.6m/s | 3.4m/s | |
| 0% | 14°C | 0mm | 99% | 0cm | 31° | 14°C | 0mm | 0.02kPa | 4600m | 8.1m/s | 3.7m/s | |
| 0% | 14°C | 0.1mm | 98% | 0cm | 25° | 14°C | 0.1mm | 0.03kPa | 6520m | 7.3m/s | 3.4m/s | |
| 0% | 14°C | 0mm | 99% | 0cm | 18° | 14°C | 0mm | 0.02kPa | 4760m | 7.7m/s | 3.6m/s | |
| 0% | 14°C | 0mm | 96% | 0cm | 9.9° | 15°C | 0mm | 0.07kPa | 10920m | 6.3m/s | 2.8m/s | |
| 0% | 15°C | 0mm | 98% | 0cm | 1.5° | 15°C | 0mm | 0.03kPa | 8260m | 6.3m/s | 2.8m/s | |
| Night | 1% | 15°C | 0mm | 99% | 0cm | -7.5° | 15°C | 0mm | 0.02kPa | 6100m | 5.6m/s | 2.4m/s |
| Night | 3% | 15°C | 0mm | 99% | 0cm | -16° | 15°C | 0mm | 0.02kPa | 5120m | 5.1m/s | 2.3m/s |
| Night | 4% | 15°C | 0mm | 99% | 0cm | -23° | 15°C | 0mm | 0.02kPa | 4980m | 4.9m/s | 2m/s |
| Night | 3% | 15°C | 0mm | 99% | 0cm | -29° | 15°C | 0mm | 0.02kPa | 5880m | 5.2m/s | 2.2m/s |
| Tue, Sep 22, 2026Sunrise · Sunset | ||||||||||||
| Night | 2% | 15°C | 0mm | 99% | 0cm | -33° | 15°C | 0mm | 0.02kPa | 9220m | 4.1m/s | 1.6m/s |
| Night | 1% | 15°C | 0mm | 98% | 0cm | -35° | 15°C | 0mm | 0.03kPa | 12100m | 3.7m/s | 1.4m/s |
| Night | 1% | 15°C | 0mm | 98% | 0cm | -34° | 15°C | 0mm | 0.03kPa | 12730m | 4.8m/s | 2.2m/s |
| Night | 0% | 15°C | 0mm | 99% | 0cm | -30° | 15°C | 0mm | 0.02kPa | 5940m | 3.9m/s | 1.9m/s |
| Night | 0% | 14°C | 0mm | 99% | 0cm | -24° | 15°C | 0mm | 0.02kPa | 6230m | 3.5m/s | 1.8m/s |
| Night | 0% | 14°C | 0mm | 99% | 0cm | -17° | 14°C | 0mm | 0.02kPa | 5400m | 2.7m/s | 1.5m/s |
| Night | 1% | 14°C | 0mm | 98% | 0cm | -9.1° | 15°C | 0mm | 0.03kPa | 5680m | 2.3m/s | 1.3m/s |
| 1% | 14°C | 0mm | 98% | 0cm | 0.06° | 15°C | 0mm | 0.03kPa | 5960m | 2.1m/s | 1.1m/s | |
| 1% | 14°C | 0.1mm | 97% | 0cm | 8.3° | 15°C | 0.1mm | 0.05kPa | 5020m | 3.4m/s | 1.8m/s | |
| 2% | 15°C | 0.1mm | 96% | 0cm | 16° | 15°C | 0.1mm | 0.07kPa | 5060m | 4.8m/s | 2.6m/s | |
| 2% | 15°C | 0.1mm | 95% | 0cm | 24° | 16°C | 0.1mm | 0.09kPa | 5080m | 5.9m/s | 3.1m/s | |
| 2% | 16°C | 0.3mm | 94% | 0cm | 30° | 17°C | 0.3mm | 0.11kPa | 5060m | 6.4m/s | 3.3m/s | |
| 2% | 16°C | 0.3mm | 93% | 0cm | 34° | 17°C | 0.3mm | 0.14kPa | 5040m | 6.5m/s | 3.4m/s | |
| 2% | 16°C | 0.3mm | 93% | 0cm | 36° | 17°C | 0.3mm | 0.14kPa | 5020m | 6.6m/s | 3.4m/s | |
| 3% | 16°C | 0.2mm | 93% | 0cm | 35° | 17°C | 0.2mm | 0.14kPa | 5580m | 6.7m/s | 3.5m/s | |
| 3% | 16°C | 0.2mm | 93% | 0cm | 31° | 17°C | 0.2mm | 0.13kPa | 6140m | 6.8m/s | 3.6m/s | |
| 4% | 15°C | 0.2mm | 93% | 0cm | 25° | 17°C | 0.2mm | 0.13kPa | 6700m | 6.6m/s | 3.6m/s | |
| 4% | 15°C | 0.1mm | 94% | 0cm | 18° | 16°C | 0.1mm | 0.11kPa | 9760m | 5.8m/s | 3.2m/s | |
| 3% | 15°C | 0.1mm | 94% | 0cm | 9.5° | 16°C | 0.1mm | 0.11kPa | 12820m | 4.7m/s | 2.6m/s | |
| 3% | 15°C | 0.1mm | 95% | 0cm | 1.2° | 15°C | 0.1mm | 0.09kPa | 15880m | 4.1m/s | 2.3m/s | |
| Night | 5% | 14°C | 0.1mm | 95% | 0cm | -7.8° | 15°C | 0.1mm | 0.09kPa | 12480m | 4.4m/s | 2.5m/s |
| Night | 7% | 14°C | 0.1mm | 96% | 0cm | -16° | 15°C | 0.1mm | 0.07kPa | 9060m | 5.1m/s | 2.9m/s |
| Night | 9% | 14°C | 0.1mm | 96% | 0cm | -24° | 15°C | 0.1mm | 0.07kPa | 5660m | 5.8m/s | 3.2m/s |
| Night | 8% | 14°C | 0mm | 96% | 0cm | -30° | 15°C | 0mm | 0.07kPa | 6080m | 6.2m/s | 3.4m/s |
| Wed, Sep 23, 2026Sunrise · Sunset | ||||||||||||
| Night | 6% | 14°C | 0mm | 96% | 0cm | -34° | 14°C | 0mm | 0.07kPa | 6500m | 6.4m/s | 3.4m/s |
| Night | 5% | 14°C | 0mm | 96% | 0cm | -35° | 14°C | 0mm | 0.06kPa | 6920m | 6.8m/s | 3.6m/s |
| Night | 4% | 14°C | 0.1mm | 96% | 0cm | -34° | 14°C | 0.1mm | 0.07kPa | 6260m | 7.4m/s | 3.9m/s |
| Night | 2% | 14°C | 0.1mm | 95% | 0cm | -31° | 15°C | 0.1mm | 0.08kPa | 5600m | 8.1m/s | 4.4m/s |
| Night | 1% | 14°C | 0.1mm | 95% | 0cm | -25° | 15°C | 0.1mm | 0.08kPa | 4940m | 8.5m/s | 4.5m/s |
| Night | 1% | 13°C | 2.7mm | 95% | 0cm | -18° | 14°C | 2.7mm | 0.08kPa | 4420m | 8m/s | 4m/s |
How this forecast is evaluated
See which weather signals PhotoWeather uses to identify Fog Hunter conditions across Lake District. The requirements and hourly values above show how those signals apply at Thirlmere.
Explore Fog Hunter conditions across Lake District →Recorded match history
Completed PhotoWeather forecast matches recorded for this exact rule at Thirlmere during the last 365 days.
Last 30 days
7
recorded matching windows · 83% average confidence
Last 90 days
15
recorded matching windows · 81% average confidence
Last 365 days
17
recorded matching windows · 80% average confidence
Most frequent recorded start hour
02:00 local time, shared by 4 of 17 matches recorded in the last 365 days.
Most represented month
July, with 7 of 17 matches recorded in the last 365 days.
These figures use completed PhotoWeather MatchEvent records from the previous 365 days only. They describe recorded forecast matches, not observations, climatological probability, or a guarantee of future conditions.
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How this forecast is made
Opportunities are threshold-based signals: PhotoWeather checks whether forecast conditions match the rules for a photography scenario. They are planning guidance, not guarantees. Forecasts can change as new model runs arrive, and confidence generally decreases farther into the forecast horizon, so recheck conditions before travelling.
The weather forecast foundation comes through Open-Meteo , which aggregates models from weather agencies. PhotoWeather applies condition-specific thresholds and derived calculations; not every condition uses every model or data input.
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