Rule
Morning Frost
Morning Frost Forecast for Thirlmere, Lake District
Penrith, England, United Kingdom
Thirlmere is a narrow reservoir held between the steep Helvellyn massif and the wooded slopes below Armboth Fell. Its engineered shoreline, conifer blocks, and fluctuating water edge create darker, more enclosed compositions than the Lake District’s open natural lakes.
0 matching opportunities in the 14-day forecast.
Hourly forecast scores
Forecast valid from Oct 5, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC (one hour; not an observation)Soil Temperature14.4°C
Dew Point14.4°C
Wind Speed4.4m/s
Cloud Cover99%
Upcoming Opportunities
When all conditions match, PhotoWeather marks an opportunity window.
Times shown in Europe/London
No matching opportunities in this 14-day forecast
See which requirements block the most forecast hours below.
71-hour requirements breakdown
When available, this detailed table covers only the stated 71-hour horizon (typically 72–168 hours, depending on available hourly data). Opportunity records above span the full 14-day forecast period, so this table does not explain that entire period. Times shown in Europe/London.
Most common blockers
Ranked across the 72-hour forecast horizon, not the full opportunity period.
- Frost Probability100% of hours
- Time Window88% of hours
- Wind Speed71% of hours
0matching hours in the displayed 71-hour forecast
AND logic: all conditions required
Meets requirement
Misses requirement
Time Europe/London | Time Window Sunrise -45m to +90m | Frost Probability ≥ 60.0% | Wind Speed ≤ 1.5m/s |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mon, Oct 5 | |||
| Rule fails. 07:00 | Time Window: Yes. Meets requirement | Frost Probability: 0%. Misses requirement | Wind Speed: 4.4m/s. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 08:00 | Time Window: Yes. Meets requirement | Frost Probability: 0%. Misses requirement | Wind Speed: 4.1m/s. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 09:00 | Time Window: No. Misses requirement | Frost Probability: 0%. Misses requirement | Wind Speed: 3.8m/s. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 10:00 | Time Window: No. Misses requirement | Frost Probability: 0%. Misses requirement | Wind Speed: 4.8m/s. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 11:00 | Time Window: No. Misses requirement | Frost Probability: 0%. Misses requirement | Wind Speed: 4.9m/s. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 12:00 | Time Window: No. Misses requirement | Frost Probability: 0%. Misses requirement | Wind Speed: 5.1m/s. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 13:00 | Time Window: No. Misses requirement | Frost Probability: 0%. Misses requirement | Wind Speed: 4.9m/s. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 14:00 | Time Window: No. Misses requirement | Frost Probability: 0%. Misses requirement | Wind Speed: 4.9m/s. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 15:00 | Time Window: No. Misses requirement | Frost Probability: 0%. Misses requirement | Wind Speed: 4.1m/s. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 16:00 | Time Window: No. Misses requirement | Frost Probability: 0%. Misses requirement | Wind Speed: 4.4m/s. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 17:00 | Time Window: No. Misses requirement | Frost Probability: 0%. Misses requirement | Wind Speed: 3.8m/s. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 18:00 | Time Window: No. Misses requirement | Frost Probability: 0%. Misses requirement | Wind Speed: 3.7m/s. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 19:00 | Time Window: No. Misses requirement | Frost Probability: 0%. Misses requirement | Wind Speed: 3.6m/s. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 20:00 | Time Window: No. Misses requirement | Frost Probability: 0%. Misses requirement | Wind Speed: 3.1m/s. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 21:00 | Time Window: No. Misses requirement | Frost Probability: 0%. Misses requirement | Wind Speed: 2.9m/s. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 22:00 | Time Window: No. Misses requirement | Frost Probability: 0%. Misses requirement | Wind Speed: 2.3m/s. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 23:00 | Time Window: No. Misses requirement | Frost Probability: 0%. Misses requirement | Wind Speed: 2.3m/s. Misses requirement |
| Tue, Oct 6 | |||
| Rule fails. 24:00 | Time Window: No. Misses requirement | Frost Probability: 0%. Misses requirement | Wind Speed: 0.9m/s. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 01:00 | Time Window: No. Misses requirement | Frost Probability: 0%. Misses requirement | Wind Speed: 2.4m/s. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 02:00 | Time Window: No. Misses requirement | Frost Probability: 0%. Misses requirement | Wind Speed: 1.3m/s. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 03:00 | Time Window: No. Misses requirement | Frost Probability: 0%. Misses requirement | Wind Speed: 0.8m/s. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 04:00 | Time Window: No. Misses requirement | Frost Probability: 0%. Misses requirement | Wind Speed: 1.4m/s. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 05:00 | Time Window: No. Misses requirement | Frost Probability: 0%. Misses requirement | Wind Speed: 0.5m/s. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 06:00 | Time Window: Yes. Meets requirement | Frost Probability: 0%. Misses requirement | Wind Speed: 2.3m/s. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 07:00 | Time Window: Yes. Meets requirement | Frost Probability: 0%. Misses requirement | Wind Speed: 2.5m/s. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 08:00 | Time Window: Yes. Meets requirement | Frost Probability: 0%. Misses requirement | Wind Speed: 1.6m/s. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 09:00 | Time Window: No. Misses requirement | Frost Probability: 0%. Misses requirement | Wind Speed: 2.4m/s. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 10:00 | Time Window: No. Misses requirement | Frost Probability: 0%. Misses requirement | Wind Speed: 1.9m/s. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 11:00 | Time Window: No. Misses requirement | Frost Probability: 0%. Misses requirement | Wind Speed: 2m/s. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 12:00 | Time Window: No. Misses requirement | Frost Probability: 0%. Misses requirement | Wind Speed: 2.1m/s. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 13:00 | Time Window: No. Misses requirement | Frost Probability: 0%. Misses requirement | Wind Speed: 2.1m/s. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 14:00 | Time Window: No. Misses requirement | Frost Probability: 0%. Misses requirement | Wind Speed: 2.1m/s. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 15:00 | Time Window: No. Misses requirement | Frost Probability: 0%. Misses requirement | Wind Speed: 2m/s. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 16:00 | Time Window: No. Misses requirement | Frost Probability: 0%. Misses requirement | Wind Speed: 2m/s. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 17:00 | Time Window: No. Misses requirement | Frost Probability: 0%. Misses requirement | Wind Speed: 1.7m/s. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 18:00 | Time Window: No. Misses requirement | Frost Probability: 0%. Misses requirement | Wind Speed: 1.3m/s. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 19:00 | Time Window: No. Misses requirement | Frost Probability: 0%. Misses requirement | Wind Speed: 1.1m/s. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 20:00 | Time Window: No. Misses requirement | Frost Probability: 0%. Misses requirement | Wind Speed: 0.8m/s. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 21:00 | Time Window: No. Misses requirement | Frost Probability: 0%. Misses requirement | Wind Speed: 0.8m/s. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 22:00 | Time Window: No. Misses requirement | Frost Probability: 0%. Misses requirement | Wind Speed: 1.7m/s. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 23:00 | Time Window: No. Misses requirement | Frost Probability: 0%. Misses requirement | Wind Speed: 1.6m/s. Misses requirement |
| Wed, Oct 7 | |||
| Rule fails. 24:00 | Time Window: No. Misses requirement | Frost Probability: 0%. Misses requirement | Wind Speed: 1.2m/s. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 01:00 | Time Window: No. Misses requirement | Frost Probability: 0%. Misses requirement | Wind Speed: 1.3m/s. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 02:00 | Time Window: No. Misses requirement | Frost Probability: 4.9%. Misses requirement | Wind Speed: 1.1m/s. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 03:00 | Time Window: No. Misses requirement | Frost Probability: 3.6%. Misses requirement | Wind Speed: 1m/s. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 04:00 | Time Window: No. Misses requirement | Frost Probability: 3.6%. Misses requirement | Wind Speed: 1.1m/s. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 05:00 | Time Window: No. Misses requirement | Frost Probability: 37%. Misses requirement | Wind Speed: 1.2m/s. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 06:00 | Time Window: Yes. Meets requirement | Frost Probability: 25%. Misses requirement | Wind Speed: 1.2m/s. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 07:00 | Time Window: Yes. Meets requirement | Frost Probability: 25%. Misses requirement | Wind Speed: 1.3m/s. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 08:00 | Time Window: Yes. Meets requirement | Frost Probability: 16%. Misses requirement | Wind Speed: 1m/s. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 09:00 | Time Window: No. Misses requirement | Frost Probability: 2.1%. Misses requirement | Wind Speed: 0.8m/s. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 10:00 | Time Window: No. Misses requirement | Frost Probability: 0%. Misses requirement | Wind Speed: 0.8m/s. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 11:00 | Time Window: No. Misses requirement | Frost Probability: 0%. Misses requirement | Wind Speed: 1.2m/s. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 12:00 | Time Window: No. Misses requirement | Frost Probability: 0%. Misses requirement | Wind Speed: 1.9m/s. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 13:00 | Time Window: No. Misses requirement | Frost Probability: 0%. Misses requirement | Wind Speed: 2.6m/s. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 14:00 | Time Window: No. Misses requirement | Frost Probability: 0%. Misses requirement | Wind Speed: 3.6m/s. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 15:00 | Time Window: No. Misses requirement | Frost Probability: 0%. Misses requirement | Wind Speed: 4.7m/s. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 16:00 | Time Window: No. Misses requirement | Frost Probability: 0%. Misses requirement | Wind Speed: 5.3m/s. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 17:00 | Time Window: No. Misses requirement | Frost Probability: 0%. Misses requirement | Wind Speed: 4.9m/s. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 18:00 | Time Window: No. Misses requirement | Frost Probability: 2.1%. Misses requirement | Wind Speed: 3.9m/s. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 19:00 | Time Window: No. Misses requirement | Frost Probability: 2.4%. Misses requirement | Wind Speed: 3.3m/s. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 20:00 | Time Window: No. Misses requirement | Frost Probability: 29%. Misses requirement | Wind Speed: 3.4m/s. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 21:00 | Time Window: No. Misses requirement | Frost Probability: 29%. Misses requirement | Wind Speed: 3.8m/s. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 22:00 | Time Window: No. Misses requirement | Frost Probability: 29%. Misses requirement | Wind Speed: 4.2m/s. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 23:00 | Time Window: No. Misses requirement | Frost Probability: 27%. Misses requirement | Wind Speed: 4.4m/s. Misses requirement |
| Thu, Oct 8 | |||
| Rule fails. 24:00 | Time Window: No. Misses requirement | Frost Probability: 20%. Misses requirement | Wind Speed: 4.6m/s. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 01:00 | Time Window: No. Misses requirement | Frost Probability: 16%. Misses requirement | Wind Speed: 4.6m/s. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 02:00 | Time Window: No. Misses requirement | Frost Probability: 16%. Misses requirement | Wind Speed: 4.3m/s. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 03:00 | Time Window: No. Misses requirement | Frost Probability: 26%. Misses requirement | Wind Speed: 3.9m/s. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 04:00 | Time Window: No. Misses requirement | Frost Probability: 26%. Misses requirement | Wind Speed: 3.4m/s. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 05:00 | Time Window: No. Misses requirement | Frost Probability: 24%. Misses requirement | Wind Speed: 2.8m/s. Misses requirement |
How to read: colored cells show whether each predicate requirement is met; highlighted rows mean the full rule matched (an opportunity).
Supporting forecast inputs
Additional hourly values for interpreting the forecast and any derived scores. See the separate requirements breakdown for rule logic; missing values are unavailable.
| Forecast time (Europe/London) | Dew Point | Surface Temperature | Temperature | Time Window | Total Cloud Coverage | Vapor Pressure Deficit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon, Oct 5, 2026Sunrise · Sunset | ||||||
| Night | 14°C | 14°C | 15°C | Unavailable | 99% | 0.05kPa |
| 15°C | 15°C | 15°C | Unavailable | 100% | 0.03kPa | |
| 15°C | 15°C | 15°C | Unavailable | 100% | 0.07kPa | |
| 14°C | 15°C | 15°C | Unavailable | 100% | 0.1kPa | |
| 14°C | 15°C | 15°C | Unavailable | 100% | 0.1kPa | |
| 14°C | 16°C | 16°C | Unavailable | 100% | 0.18kPa | |
| 14°C | 15°C | 15°C | Unavailable | 100% | 0.08kPa | |
| 14°C | 15°C | 15°C | Unavailable | 100% | 0.08kPa | |
| 14°C | 15°C | 15°C | Unavailable | 100% | 0.08kPa | |
| 14°C | 15°C | 15°C | Unavailable | 100% | 0.1kPa | |
| 14°C | 15°C | 15°C | Unavailable | 100% | 0.07kPa | |
| 14°C | 14°C | 15°C | Unavailable | 100% | 0.05kPa | |
| Night | 14°C | 14°C | 15°C | Unavailable | 100% | 0.05kPa |
| Night | 14°C | 14°C | 15°C | Unavailable | 100% | 0.03kPa |
| Night | 14°C | 14°C | 15°C | Unavailable | 100% | 0.03kPa |
| Night | 14°C | 14°C | 15°C | Unavailable | 100% | 0.02kPa |
| Night | 13°C | 13°C | 13°C | Unavailable | 100% | 0kPa |
| Tue, Oct 6, 2026Sunrise · Sunset | ||||||
| Night | 13°C | 13°C | 13°C | Unavailable | 100% | 0.01kPa |
| Night | 12°C | 13°C | 13°C | Unavailable | 100% | 0.01kPa |
| Night | 12°C | 13°C | 12°C | Unavailable | 100% | 0.04kPa |
| Night | 11°C | 12°C | 12°C | Unavailable | 100% | 0.1kPa |
| Night | 11°C | 12°C | 12°C | Unavailable | 100% | 0.11kPa |
| Night | 11°C | 12°C | 11°C | Unavailable | 100% | 0.05kPa |
| Night | 11°C | 12°C | 11°C | Unavailable | 100% | 0.01kPa |
| Night | 10°C | 11°C | 11°C | Unavailable | 100% | 0.03kPa |
| 10°C | 12°C | 11°C | Unavailable | 100% | 0.05kPa | |
| 9.9°C | 12°C | 11°C | Unavailable | 100% | 0.06kPa | |
| 8.9°C | 11°C | 11°C | Unavailable | 100% | 0.13kPa | |
| 9°C | 13°C | 11°C | Unavailable | 99% | 0.16kPa | |
| 8.2°C | 13°C | 11°C | Unavailable | 100% | 0.22kPa | |
| 7.6°C | 12°C | 11°C | Unavailable | 100% | 0.29kPa | |
| 7.8°C | 13°C | 12°C | Unavailable | 100% | 0.3kPa | |
| 8.2°C | 12°C | 11°C | Unavailable | 100% | 0.22kPa | |
| 8°C | 12°C | 11°C | Unavailable | 100% | 0.27kPa | |
| 8.1°C | 12°C | 12°C | Unavailable | 100% | 0.29kPa | |
| 8.2°C | 12°C | 11°C | Unavailable | 100% | 0.25kPa | |
| Night | 8.7°C | 11°C | 11°C | Unavailable | 100% | 0.17kPa |
| Night | 8.8°C | 11°C | 11°C | Unavailable | 100% | 0.14kPa |
| Night | 8.8°C | 11°C | 11°C | Unavailable | 100% | 0.14kPa |
| Night | 8.1°C | 11°C | 10°C | Unavailable | 72% | 0.18kPa |
| Night | 6.3°C | 10°C | 9.8°C | Unavailable | 100% | 0.25kPa |
| Wed, Oct 7, 2026Sunrise · Sunset | ||||||
| Night | 6.3°C | 9.8°C | 9.6°C | Unavailable | 100% | 0.24kPa |
| Night | 5.8°C | 9.6°C | 9.3°C | Unavailable | 98% | 0.25kPa |
| Night | 5.5°C | 8°C | 8.6°C | Unavailable | 5% | 0.21kPa |
| Night | 4.3°C | 6.5°C | 7.2°C | Unavailable | 0% | 0.18kPa |
| Night | 3.9°C | 6.2°C | 6.8°C | Unavailable | 0% | 0.18kPa |
| Night | 3.6°C | 4.8°C | 5.6°C | Unavailable | 5% | 0.12kPa |
| Night | 3.5°C | 3.8°C | 4.7°C | Unavailable | 54% | 0.07kPa |
| Night | 3.2°C | 2.9°C | 3.8°C | Unavailable | 78% | 0.03kPa |
| 4.7°C | 5.3°C | 5.1°C | Unavailable | 78% | 0.03kPa | |
| 5.7°C | 8°C | 6.8°C | Unavailable | 77% | 0.07kPa | |
| 6.4°C | 10°C | 8.3°C | Unavailable | 75% | 0.13kPa | |
| 6.2°C | 12°C | 9.3°C | Unavailable | 72% | 0.22kPa | |
| 5.3°C | 14°C | 10°C | Unavailable | 70% | 0.35kPa | |
| 4.6°C | 14°C | 11°C | Unavailable | 69% | 0.42kPa | |
| 4.6°C | 13°C | 11°C | Unavailable | 74% | 0.42kPa | |
| 4.7°C | 12°C | 10°C | Unavailable | 81% | 0.38kPa | |
| 5°C | 10°C | 9.6°C | Unavailable | 81% | 0.32kPa | |
| 5.3°C | 8.8°C | 8.9°C | Unavailable | 66% | 0.25kPa | |
| 5.6°C | 7.3°C | 8.1°C | Unavailable | 45% | 0.17kPa | |
| Night | 5.5°C | 6.2°C | 7.4°C | Unavailable | 28% | 0.12kPa |
| Night | 5.2°C | 5.8°C | 7.1°C | Unavailable | 22% | 0.12kPa |
| Night | 4.9°C | 5.7°C | 6.9°C | Unavailable | 22% | 0.13kPa |
| Night | 4.5°C | 5.6°C | 6.7°C | Unavailable | 23% | 0.14kPa |
| Night | 4.8°C | 5.5°C | 6.6°C | Unavailable | 24% | 0.12kPa |
| Thu, Oct 8, 2026Sunrise · Sunset | ||||||
| Night | 5°C | 5.3°C | 6.4°C | Unavailable | 27% | 0.09kPa |
| Night | 5.3°C | 5.2°C | 6.3°C | Unavailable | 28% | 0.07kPa |
| Night | 5.2°C | 5.4°C | 6.2°C | Unavailable | 26% | 0.07kPa |
| Night | 5°C | 5.6°C | 6.2°C | Unavailable | 22% | 0.08kPa |
| Night | 4.7°C | 5.4°C | 5.9°C | Unavailable | 19% | 0.07kPa |
| Night | 4°C | 4.1°C | 4.9°C | Unavailable | 20% | 0.05kPa |
| Night | 3°C | 2.4°C | 3.6°C | Unavailable | 22% | 0.03kPa |
How this forecast is evaluated
See which weather signals PhotoWeather uses to identify Morning Frost conditions across Lake District. The requirements and hourly values above show how those signals apply at Thirlmere.
Explore Morning Frost conditions across Lake District →Recorded match history
Completed PhotoWeather forecast matches recorded for this exact rule at Thirlmere during the last 365 days.
Last 30 days
0
recorded matching windows
Last 90 days
0
recorded matching windows
Last 365 days
1
recorded matching window · 62% average confidence
Only 1 completed match is recorded in the last 365 days—insufficient history to identify a reliable typical start time or month.
These figures use completed PhotoWeather MatchEvent records from the previous 365 days only. They describe recorded forecast matches, not observations, climatological probability, or a guarantee of future conditions.
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How this forecast is made
Opportunities are threshold-based signals: PhotoWeather checks whether forecast conditions match the rules for a photography scenario. They are planning guidance, not guarantees. Forecasts can change as new model runs arrive, and confidence generally decreases farther into the forecast horizon, so recheck conditions before travelling.
The weather forecast foundation comes through Open-Meteo , which aggregates models from weather agencies. PhotoWeather applies condition-specific thresholds and derived calculations; not every condition uses every model or data input.
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