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Rule Morning Frost

Thirlmere - Morning Frost - Lake District

Penrith, England, United Kingdom

Frost crystals on calm, cold mornings near sunrise

No opportunities right now
Here’s what usually blocks matches

No Morning Frost opportunities in the next 14 days

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Rule requirements (key thresholds)
Time Window · Sunrise -45m to +90m Frost Probability · ≥ 60.0% Wind Speed · ≤ 1.5m/s

Tip: Scroll down to the 72-hour table to see exactly which condition fails hour by hour.

Most common blockers (next 72 hours)
Frost Probability 100% failing
Time Window 88% failing
Wind Speed 67% failing

Currently

Real-time conditions
Soil Temperature12.8°C
Dew Point12.3°C (moderate dew point)
Wind Speed2.3m/s (calm conditions)
Cloud Cover5%

Upcoming Opportunities

When all conditions match, PhotoWeather marks an opportunity window.

Times shown in Europe/London

No opportunities in the next 10 days

See the blocker timeline below to understand which conditions are preventing matches.

What this forecast looks for

Plain-language explanation from the rule

This forecast tracks the conditions that create the Lake District's enchanting frost photography opportunities. We combine temperature, dewpoint, wind, and humidity data to predict when hoar frost will transform England's most romantic landscapes into glittering winter scenes.

The Lake District's combination of lakes, tarns, and sheltered valleys creates ideal conditions for heavy frost formation. England's naturally high humidity combined with calm, cold nights produces thick hoar frost deposits that coat every surface. The region's intimate scale means frost-covered scenes retain the romantic quality that has drawn artists here for centuries.

What makes the Lake District special for frost photography:

  • Frozen tarns - Small tarns like Tarn Hows freeze solid, creating pristine ice skating scenes
  • Frosted fells - Grasses and bracken on fell sides become forests of ice crystals
  • Lake shore ice - Derwentwater and Windermere develop fascinating ice formations along their shores
  • Romantic compositions - Frost-covered stone walls, bare trees, and winter light evoke Wordsworth's poetry

Tarn Hows becomes a winter jewel when frozen and frost-covered—the small tarn surrounded by frosted woodland creates postcard-perfect scenes. Derwentwater's shores develop intricate ice patterns, particularly in sheltered bays like the view from Friars Crag. Higher tarns like Blea Tarn freeze reliably and hold frost longer, often remaining photogenic well into morning. Frosted bracken on the lower fells catches golden morning light beautifully. The key is arriving at dawn after clear, calm nights—our forecast identifies these conditions and predicts how long frost will persist after sunrise.

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72-hour requirements breakdown

What passed or failed, hour by hour
0matching hours in the next 80 hours
AND logic: all conditions required
Meets requirement
Misses requirement
Time
Europe/London
Time Window
Sunrise -45m to +90m
Frost Probability
≥ 60.0%
Wind Speed
≤ 1.5m/s
Sun, May 24
05:000%3m/s
06:000%3.1m/s
07:000%3.4m/s
08:000%3.4m/s
09:000%2.8m/s
10:000%2.7m/s
11:000%2.9m/s
12:000%2.6m/s
13:000%2.3m/s
14:000%2.3m/s
15:000%2.3m/s
16:000%2.3m/s
17:000%1.8m/s
18:000%0.94m/s
19:000%0.76m/s
20:000%1.1m/s
21:000%0.67m/s
22:000%1.2m/s
23:000%2.3m/s
Mon, May 25
24:000%3.1m/s
01:000%3.1m/s
02:000%3.1m/s
03:000%3.2m/s
04:000%3m/s
05:000%2.9m/s
06:000%3.2m/s
07:000%2.7m/s
08:000%2.1m/s
09:000%1.4m/s
10:000%1.4m/s
11:000%1.8m/s
12:000%2m/s
13:000%2.4m/s
14:000%2.5m/s
15:000%2.7m/s
16:000%2.3m/s
17:000%1.7m/s
18:000%1.6m/s
19:000%2.4m/s
20:000%2.4m/s
21:000%1.4m/s
22:000%0.78m/s
23:000%0.64m/s
Tue, May 26
24:000%0.94m/s
01:000%1.1m/s
02:000%1.1m/s
03:000%0.84m/s
04:000%0.45m/s
05:000%0.57m/s
06:000%0.55m/s
07:000%0.7m/s
08:000%1.2m/s
09:000%1.6m/s
10:000%1.9m/s
11:000%2m/s
12:000%1.9m/s
13:000%2.3m/s
14:000%2.6m/s
15:000%2.7m/s
16:000%2.5m/s
17:000%2.8m/s
18:000%2.9m/s
19:000%2.7m/s
20:000%2.3m/s
21:000%1.8m/s
22:000%1.4m/s
23:000%1.4m/s
Wed, May 27
24:000%1.4m/s
01:000%1.3m/s
02:000%1.5m/s
03:000%1.6m/s
04:000%1.7m/s
05:000%2m/s
06:000%2.2m/s
07:000%2.5m/s
08:000%2.5m/s
09:000%2.5m/s
10:000%2.5m/s
11:000%2.4m/s
12:000%2.2m/s
How to read: colored cells show whether each predicate requirement is met; highlighted rows mean the full rule matched (an opportunity).

What does Frost Probability mean?

Inputs that drive the score

This derived score summarizes multiple raw weather signals. The table below shows the supporting inputs hour by hour, so you can see what's pushing the score up or down.

Time
Europe/London
Dew Point
°C
Surface Temperature
°C
Temperature
°C
Time Window
Total Cloud Coverage
%
Vapor Pressure Deficit
kPa
Sun, May 24 Sunrise 04:51 Sunset 21:25
14:00
12°C 13°C 20°C - 5% 0.85kPa
15:00
12°C 13°C 20°C - 5% 0.91kPa
16:00
12°C 13°C 20°C - 5% 0.91kPa
17:00
12°C 13°C 19°C - 5% 0.82kPa
18:00
12°C 14°C 19°C - 5% 0.71kPa
19:00
13°C 14°C 17°C - 5% 0.52kPa
20:00
12°C 14°C 15°C - 4% 0.27kPa
21:00
10°C 13°C 12°C - 5% 0.15kPa
22:00
9.3°C 13°C 11°C - 4% 0.13kPa
23:00
8.7°C 13°C 10°C - 0% 0.14kPa
Mon, May 25 Sunrise 04:51 Sunset 21:25
24:00
7.2°C 13°C 9.5°C - 0% 0.17kPa
01:00
5.5°C 13°C 8.9°C - 0% 0.24kPa
02:00
4.7°C 12°C 9.1°C - 0% 0.3kPa
03:00
4.2°C 12°C 9.3°C - 0% 0.35kPa
04:00
3.9°C 12°C 9.3°C - 0% 0.36kPa
05:00
3.9°C 12°C 9.5°C - 0% 0.38kPa
06:00
5.5°C 12°C 10°C - 0% 0.32kPa
07:00
8.2°C 12°C 12°C - 0% 0.32kPa
08:00
9.2°C 12°C 15°C - 0% 0.49kPa
09:00
10°C 12°C 16°C - 0% 0.62kPa
10:00
11°C 12°C 18°C - 0% 0.74kPa
11:00
12°C 12°C 19°C - 0% 0.88kPa
12:00
12°C 13°C 21°C - 0% 1kPa
13:00
13°C 13°C 22°C - 0% 1.1kPa
14:00
13°C 13°C 22°C - 0% 1.1kPa
15:00
14°C 13°C 22°C - 0% 1.1kPa
16:00
14°C 14°C 22°C - 0% 1kPa
17:00
14°C 14°C 22°C - 0% 0.95kPa
18:00
15°C 14°C 21°C - 0% 0.84kPa
19:00
16°C 14°C 19°C - 0% 0.47kPa
20:00
14°C 14°C 17°C - 2% 0.26kPa
21:00
12°C 14°C 14°C - 4% 0.22kPa
22:00
10°C 14°C 13°C - 5% 0.28kPa
23:00
9.5°C 14°C 13°C - 5% 0.33kPa
Tue, May 26 Sunrise 04:50 Sunset 21:26
24:00
9.5°C 14°C 13°C - 6% 0.34kPa
01:00
9.8°C 14°C 13°C - 2% 0.32kPa
02:00
10°C 13°C 13°C - 5% 0.29kPa
03:00
10°C 13°C 13°C - 5% 0.27kPa
04:00
10°C 13°C 13°C - 5% 0.24kPa
05:00
9.9°C 13°C 13°C - 5% 0.23kPa
06:00
11°C 13°C 14°C - 50% 0.27kPa
07:00
12°C 13°C 16°C - 54% 0.39kPa
08:00
13°C 13°C 17°C - 10% 0.49kPa
09:00
14°C 13°C 19°C - 5% 0.58kPa
10:00
15°C 13°C 20°C - 5% 0.62kPa
11:00
16°C 14°C 21°C - 5% 0.66kPa
12:00
16°C 14°C 22°C - 9% 0.72kPa
13:00
17°C 14°C 22°C - 11% 0.76kPa
14:00
17°C 14°C 23°C - 35% 0.76kPa
15:00
17°C 15°C 23°C - 47% 0.74kPa
16:00
17°C 15°C 22°C - 51% 0.73kPa
17:00
17°C 15°C 22°C - 87% 0.62kPa
18:00
17°C 15°C 21°C - 87% 0.47kPa
19:00
17°C 15°C 19°C - 92% 0.33kPa
20:00
14°C 15°C 17°C - 81% 0.27kPa
21:00
12°C 15°C 14°C - 70% 0.22kPa
22:00
9.2°C 15°C 11°C - 59% 0.18kPa
23:00
9.4°C 14°C 12°C - 53% 0.18kPa
Wed, May 27 Sunrise 04:48 Sunset 21:28
24:00
9.6°C 14°C 12°C - 46% 0.19kPa
01:00
9.7°C 14°C 12°C - 40% 0.19kPa
02:00
11°C 14°C 13°C - 39% 0.25kPa
03:00
11°C 14°C 15°C - 38% 0.32kPa
04:00
12°C 14°C 16°C - 36% 0.4kPa
05:00
13°C 14°C 17°C - 57% 0.45kPa
06:00
14°C 14°C 18°C - 78% 0.51kPa
07:00
14°C 15°C 19°C - 98% 0.58kPa
08:00
14°C 15°C 19°C - 96% 0.55kPa
09:00
14°C 15°C 18°C - 94% 0.52kPa
10:00
14°C 15°C 18°C - 92% 0.48kPa
11:00
14°C 15°C 18°C - 85% 0.46kPa
12:00
14°C 15°C 18°C - 79% 0.43kPa
13:00
14°C 15°C 17°C - 73% 0.41kPa
How to read: these inputs help produce the derived score; they are not requirements by themselves.

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