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Rule Morning Frost

Thirlmere - Morning Frost - Lake District

Penrith, England, United Kingdom

Frost crystals on calm, cold mornings near sunrise

No opportunities right now
Here’s what usually blocks matches

No Morning Frost opportunities in the next 14 days

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Rule requirements (key thresholds)
Time Window · Sunrise -45m to +90m Frost Probability · ≥ 60.0% Wind Speed · ≤ 1.5m/s

Tip: Scroll down to the 72-hour table to see exactly which condition fails hour by hour.

Most common blockers (next 72 hours)
Frost Probability 100% failing
Wind Speed 99% failing
Time Window 88% failing

Currently

Real-time conditions
Soil Temperature9.9°C
Dew Point7.7°C (moderate dew point)
Wind Speed3.6m/s (calm conditions)
Cloud Cover100%

Upcoming Opportunities

When all conditions match, PhotoWeather marks an opportunity window.

Times shown in Europe/London

No opportunities in the next 10 days

See the blocker timeline below to understand which conditions are preventing matches.

What this forecast looks for

Plain-language explanation from the rule

This forecast tracks the conditions that create the Lake District's enchanting frost photography opportunities. We combine temperature, dewpoint, wind, and humidity data to predict when hoar frost will transform England's most romantic landscapes into glittering winter scenes.

The Lake District's combination of lakes, tarns, and sheltered valleys creates ideal conditions for heavy frost formation. England's naturally high humidity combined with calm, cold nights produces thick hoar frost deposits that coat every surface. The region's intimate scale means frost-covered scenes retain the romantic quality that has drawn artists here for centuries.

What makes the Lake District special for frost photography:

  • Frozen tarns - Small tarns like Tarn Hows freeze solid, creating pristine ice skating scenes
  • Frosted fells - Grasses and bracken on fell sides become forests of ice crystals
  • Lake shore ice - Derwentwater and Windermere develop fascinating ice formations along their shores
  • Romantic compositions - Frost-covered stone walls, bare trees, and winter light evoke Wordsworth's poetry

Tarn Hows becomes a winter jewel when frozen and frost-covered—the small tarn surrounded by frosted woodland creates postcard-perfect scenes. Derwentwater's shores develop intricate ice patterns, particularly in sheltered bays like the view from Friars Crag. Higher tarns like Blea Tarn freeze reliably and hold frost longer, often remaining photogenic well into morning. Frosted bracken on the lower fells catches golden morning light beautifully. The key is arriving at dawn after clear, calm nights—our forecast identifies these conditions and predicts how long frost will persist after sunrise.

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72-hour requirements breakdown

What passed or failed, hour by hour
0matching hours in the next 91 hours
AND logic: all conditions required
Meets requirement
Misses requirement
Time
Europe/London
Time Window
Sunrise -45m to +90m
Frost Probability
≥ 60.0%
Wind Speed
≤ 1.5m/s
Wed, Apr 8
06:000%3.3m/s
07:000%2.8m/s
08:000%2.6m/s
09:000%2.8m/s
10:000%1.9m/s
11:000%1.4m/s
12:000%1.1m/s
13:000%1.2m/s
14:000%2.1m/s
15:000%3.2m/s
16:000%2.3m/s
17:000%1.3m/s
18:000%2.1m/s
19:000%2.2m/s
20:000%1.6m/s
21:000%0.79m/s
22:000%0.74m/s
23:000%1.6m/s
Thu, Apr 9
24:000%2.1m/s
01:000%3.1m/s
02:000%3.6m/s
03:000%3.4m/s
04:000%3.6m/s
05:000%4m/s
06:000%4.4m/s
07:000%4.3m/s
08:000%4.1m/s
09:000%4.7m/s
10:000%4.5m/s
11:000%4.5m/s
12:000%6.3m/s
13:000%8.6m/s
14:000%8.8m/s
15:000%7.3m/s
16:000%8.5m/s
17:000%8.3m/s
18:000%7.8m/s
19:000%7.5m/s
20:000%7.6m/s
21:001%7m/s
22:001%6m/s
23:002.1%7m/s
Fri, Apr 10
24:002%5.7m/s
01:002.7%4.9m/s
02:002.7%4.2m/s
03:002.9%3.6m/s
04:003.1%2.3m/s
05:0032%2m/s
06:0030%1.3m/s
07:0019%1.6m/s
08:0020%2.1m/s
09:0028%2m/s
10:0033%2.3m/s
11:0035%2.8m/s
12:0035%3.4m/s
13:0034%4.1m/s
14:0030%6m/s
15:0029%5.8m/s
16:0029%6.5m/s
17:0035%6.4m/s
18:002.6%6.1m/s
19:0027%6.8m/s
20:0027%7.7m/s
21:0028%8m/s
22:0022%9m/s
23:0022%9.8m/s
Sat, Apr 11
24:0027%11m/s
01:0011%10m/s
02:0011%11m/s
03:0011%9.7m/s
04:0011%9m/s
05:0013%5m/s
06:0013%5.5m/s
07:0021%7.6m/s
08:0025%7.6m/s
09:0033%7.7m/s
10:0037%7.7m/s
11:0029%8m/s
12:0023%8.3m/s
13:0022%8.6m/s
14:0011%8.3m/s
15:0011%8m/s
16:007%7.8m/s
17:009%8m/s
18:009%8.2m/s
19:009%8.4m/s
20:009%9m/s
21:009%9.6m/s
22:009%10m/s
23:009%9.3m/s
Sun, Apr 12
24:0010%8.4m/s
How to read: colored cells show whether each predicate requirement is met; highlighted rows mean the full rule matched (an opportunity).

What does Frost Probability mean?

Inputs that drive the score

This derived score summarizes multiple raw weather signals. The table below shows the supporting inputs hour by hour, so you can see what's pushing the score up or down.

Time
Europe/London
Dew Point
°C
Surface Temperature
°C
Temperature
°C
Time Window
Total Cloud Coverage
%
Vapor Pressure Deficit
kPa
Thu, Apr 9 Sunrise 06:23 Sunset 20:02
02:00
7.7°C 9.9°C 8.4°C - 100% 0.05kPa
03:00
7.3°C 9.7°C 7.9°C - 100% 0.04kPa
04:00
7.6°C 9.5°C 7.9°C - 100% 0.02kPa
05:00
8.1°C 9.4°C 8.3°C - 100% 0.02kPa
06:00
8.4°C 9.3°C 8.7°C - 100% 0.02kPa
07:00
8.4°C 9.2°C 8.8°C - 100% 0.03kPa
08:00
7.6°C 9.2°C 9.1°C - 100% 0.11kPa
09:00
6°C 9.1°C 9°C - 100% 0.22kPa
10:00
6.2°C 9.1°C 8.2°C - 100% 0.14kPa
11:00
6.6°C 9.1°C 7.8°C - 100% 0.08kPa
12:00
4.5°C 8.9°C 6.3°C - 100% 0.11kPa
13:00
4.2°C 8.9°C 7.7°C - 76% 0.23kPa
14:00
4.1°C 8.9°C 6.5°C - 96% 0.15kPa
15:00
2.8°C 8.7°C 6.6°C - 90% 0.22kPa
16:00
2.1°C 8.7°C 7°C - 39% 0.29kPa
17:00
1.9°C 8.6°C 6.8°C - 9% 0.29kPa
18:00
1.6°C 8.5°C 6.1°C - 5% 0.26kPa
19:00
0.7°C 8.3°C 5.1°C - 5% 0.24kPa
20:00
0.5°C 8°C 4°C - 44% 0.18kPa
21:00
1.9°C 7.8°C 3.4°C - 81% 0.08kPa
22:00
1.4°C 7.6°C 3.3°C - 100% 0.1kPa
23:00
0.8°C 7.4°C 4°C - 99% 0.16kPa
Fri, Apr 10 Sunrise 06:23 Sunset 20:02
24:00
1.2°C 7.2°C 3.6°C - 30% 0.12kPa
01:00
0.7°C 6.9°C 2.6°C - 6% 0.09kPa
02:00
0.3°C 6.6°C 2°C - 5% 0.08kPa
03:00
-0.3°C 6.3°C 1.4°C - 5% 0.08kPa
04:00
-0.8°C 6°C 0.42°C - 5% 0.05kPa
05:00
-1.3°C 5.9°C -0.05°C - 5% 0.05kPa
06:00
-1.8°C 5.8°C -0.43°C - 21% 0.06kPa
07:00
-1.4°C 5.8°C -0.007°C - 98% 0.06kPa
08:00
-0.5°C 5.6°C 1.9°C - 100% 0.11kPa
09:00
-0.1°C 5.6°C 3.4°C - 100% 0.18kPa
10:00
-0.5°C 5.6°C 4.7°C - 100% 0.26kPa
11:00
-1.2°C 5.6°C 5.3°C - 100% 0.33kPa
12:00
-1.4°C 5.6°C 6.1°C - 100% 0.39kPa
13:00
-1.5°C 5.7°C 7.2°C - 70% 0.47kPa
14:00
-1.5°C 5.7°C 7.6°C - 70% 0.49kPa
15:00
-1.3°C 5.8°C 7.7°C - 90% 0.49kPa
16:00
-0.9°C 5.9°C 7.5°C - 96% 0.47kPa
17:00
-0.4°C 6°C 6.9°C - 48% 0.4kPa
18:00
0.9°C 6.1°C 6.7°C - 87% 0.33kPa
19:00
0.5°C 6°C 5.8°C - 100% 0.29kPa
20:00
-0.2°C 6°C 5.3°C - 99% 0.29kPa
21:00
0.2°C 5.9°C 4.6°C - 67% 0.23kPa
22:00
1°C 5.8°C 4.3°C - 100% 0.17kPa
23:00
1.1°C 5.8°C 4.7°C - 97% 0.19kPa
Sat, Apr 11 Sunrise 06:21 Sunset 20:04
24:00
0.4°C 5.7°C 4.9°C - 96% 0.24kPa
01:00
2.2°C 5.7°C 3.6°C - 100% 0.07kPa
02:00
3.1°C 5.6°C 4.8°C - 100% 0.09kPa
03:00
4°C 5.6°C 5.1°C - 100% 0.07kPa
04:00
4.4°C 5.5°C 5.6°C - 100% 0.07kPa
05:00
1.6°C 5.5°C 3°C - 100% 0.07kPa
06:00
2.3°C 5.4°C 3.5°C - 100% 0.06kPa
07:00
1.8°C 5.3°C 4.1°C - 26% 0.13kPa
08:00
1.4°C 4.9°C 4.1°C - 19% 0.14kPa
09:00
1°C 4.6°C 4°C - 12% 0.16kPa
10:00
0.7°C 4.2°C 4°C - 5% 0.17kPa
11:00
0.6°C 4.2°C 3.9°C - 37% 0.17kPa
12:00
0.6°C 4.2°C 3.8°C - 68% 0.16kPa
13:00
0.6°C 4.3°C 3.7°C - 100% 0.16kPa
14:00
1°C 4.2°C 3°C - 100% 0.1kPa
15:00
1.3°C 4.1°C 2.4°C - 100% 0.05kPa
16:00
1.5°C 4°C 1.7°C - 100% 0.01kPa
17:00
2.1°C 4°C 2.3°C - 100% 0.01kPa
18:00
2.7°C 3.9°C 3°C - 100% 0.01kPa
19:00
3.3°C 3.8°C 3.6°C - 100% 0.02kPa
20:00
3.4°C 3.9°C 3.7°C - 100% 0.02kPa
21:00
3.5°C 3.9°C 3.9°C - 100% 0.02kPa
22:00
3.6°C 3.9°C 4°C - 100% 0.03kPa
23:00
3.4°C 3.9°C 3.9°C - 87% 0.03kPa
Sun, Apr 12 Sunrise 06:18 Sunset 20:06
24:00
3.2°C 3.9°C 3.9°C - 73% 0.04kPa
01:00
3°C 4°C 3.8°C - 60% 0.04kPa
How to read: these inputs help produce the derived score; they are not requirements by themselves.

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