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Rule Morning Frost

Tarn Hows - Morning Frost - Lake District

Hawkshead, England, United Kingdom

Frost crystals on calm, cold mornings near sunrise

No opportunities right now
Here’s what usually blocks matches

No Morning Frost opportunities in the next 14 days

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Rule requirements (key thresholds)
Time Window · Sunrise -45m to +90m Frost Probability · ≥ 60.0% Wind Speed · ≤ 1.5m/s

Tip: Scroll down to the 72-hour table to see exactly which condition fails hour by hour.

Most common blockers (next 72 hours)
Frost Probability 100% failing
Wind Speed 100% failing
Time Window 88% failing

Currently

Real-time conditions
Soil Temperature5.9°C
Dew Point4.2°C (low dew point)
Wind Speed8.7m/s (moderate winds)
Cloud Cover76%

Upcoming Opportunities

When all conditions match, PhotoWeather marks an opportunity window.

Times shown in Europe/London

No opportunities in the next 10 days

See the blocker timeline below to understand which conditions are preventing matches.

What this forecast looks for

Plain-language explanation from the rule

This forecast tracks the conditions that create the Lake District's enchanting frost photography opportunities. We combine temperature, dewpoint, wind, and humidity data to predict when hoar frost will transform England's most romantic landscapes into glittering winter scenes.

The Lake District's combination of lakes, tarns, and sheltered valleys creates ideal conditions for heavy frost formation. England's naturally high humidity combined with calm, cold nights produces thick hoar frost deposits that coat every surface. The region's intimate scale means frost-covered scenes retain the romantic quality that has drawn artists here for centuries.

What makes the Lake District special for frost photography:

  • Frozen tarns - Small tarns like Tarn Hows freeze solid, creating pristine ice skating scenes
  • Frosted fells - Grasses and bracken on fell sides become forests of ice crystals
  • Lake shore ice - Derwentwater and Windermere develop fascinating ice formations along their shores
  • Romantic compositions - Frost-covered stone walls, bare trees, and winter light evoke Wordsworth's poetry

Tarn Hows becomes a winter jewel when frozen and frost-covered—the small tarn surrounded by frosted woodland creates postcard-perfect scenes. Derwentwater's shores develop intricate ice patterns, particularly in sheltered bays like the view from Friars Crag. Higher tarns like Blea Tarn freeze reliably and hold frost longer, often remaining photogenic well into morning. Frosted bracken on the lower fells catches golden morning light beautifully. The key is arriving at dawn after clear, calm nights—our forecast identifies these conditions and predicts how long frost will persist after sunrise.

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72-hour requirements breakdown

What passed or failed, hour by hour
0matching hours in the next 95 hours
AND logic: all conditions required
Meets requirement
Misses requirement
Time
Europe/London
Time Window
Sunrise -45m to +90m
Frost Probability
≥ 60.0%
Wind Speed
≤ 1.5m/s
Sat, Feb 21
19:0013%2.5m/s
20:0011%2.9m/s
21:0011%3.6m/s
22:0011%3.7m/s
23:0011%4m/s
Sun, Feb 22
24:001%4.1m/s
01:001%3.9m/s
02:001%3.6m/s
03:001.2%2.6m/s
04:001%3m/s
05:001.2%2.4m/s
06:001.2%2.3m/s
07:0013%2.8m/s
08:0014%4.3m/s
09:0011%6.4m/s
10:0012%8.4m/s
11:0014%10m/s
12:001.4%11m/s
13:001.3%10m/s
14:001.3%9.9m/s
15:001.3%10m/s
16:001.3%8.6m/s
17:001.3%8.1m/s
18:0011%7.8m/s
19:0012%8.7m/s
20:0011%8.4m/s
21:0015%8.9m/s
22:0012%9.2m/s
23:0011%9.4m/s
Mon, Feb 23
24:0011%10m/s
01:0011%11m/s
02:0011%10m/s
03:0011%9.7m/s
04:0011%9.6m/s
05:0011%9.6m/s
06:0011%9.2m/s
07:0011%9m/s
08:0014%9m/s
09:0014%9.1m/s
10:0014%9.3m/s
11:0014%9.2m/s
12:0014%9.1m/s
13:0014%8.7m/s
14:0015%8m/s
15:001.3%6.6m/s
16:001.7%3.4m/s
17:001.2%2.3m/s
18:001.2%1.8m/s
19:001.2%2.4m/s
20:001.2%2.6m/s
21:001%3.1m/s
22:0011%3.8m/s
23:0011%3.6m/s
Tue, Feb 24
24:009%4.4m/s
01:0011%4.1m/s
02:000.8%4.3m/s
03:000.8%4.5m/s
04:001.2%5.4m/s
05:001%6m/s
06:000.8%5.2m/s
07:001.2%4.9m/s
08:009%5m/s
09:009%4.9m/s
10:007%5.7m/s
11:001.3%6.2m/s
12:002.6%6.5m/s
13:002.6%6.2m/s
14:002.6%6.5m/s
15:002.6%6.2m/s
16:002.6%5.7m/s
17:001.5%4.7m/s
18:001.5%4.3m/s
19:001.2%4.4m/s
20:001.2%4.6m/s
21:000.8%5.2m/s
22:001%6m/s
23:001.2%5.3m/s
Wed, Feb 25
24:000.8%4.4m/s
01:001.1%4m/s
02:0015%3.7m/s
03:0018%3.3m/s
04:0019%3.8m/s
05:001.6%4.3m/s
06:002%4.8m/s
07:001.5%5.1m/s
08:001.5%5.4m/s
09:001.3%5.6m/s
10:001.5%5.1m/s
11:001.5%4.6m/s
12:001.4%4.1m/s
13:000.8%4.3m/s
14:000.8%4.5m/s
15:000.8%4.7m/s
16:000.8%4.7m/s
17:000.8%4.8m/s
How to read: colored cells show whether each predicate requirement is met; highlighted rows mean the full rule matched (an opportunity).

What does Frost Probability mean?

Inputs that drive the score

This derived score summarizes multiple raw weather signals. The table below shows the supporting inputs hour by hour, so you can see what's pushing the score up or down.

Time
Europe/London
Dew Point
°C
Surface Temperature
°C
Temperature
°C
Time Window
Total Cloud Coverage
%
Vapor Pressure Deficit
kPa
Sun, Feb 22 Sunrise 07:17 Sunset 17:34
19:00
4.2°C 5.9°C 5.9°C - 76% 0.1kPa
20:00
3.8°C 5.7°C 4.9°C - 94% 0.06kPa
21:00
3.5°C 5.4°C 4.6°C - 48% 0.07kPa
22:00
3.4°C 5.3°C 4.5°C - 72% 0.06kPa
23:00
3.5°C 5.1°C 4.6°C - 98% 0.06kPa
Mon, Feb 23 Sunrise 07:15 Sunset 17:36
24:00
3.3°C 5°C 4.8°C - 100% 0.09kPa
01:00
3.1°C 4.9°C 4.7°C - 100% 0.09kPa
02:00
3.5°C 4.9°C 4.7°C - 100% 0.07kPa
03:00
3.2°C 4.8°C 4.8°C - 100% 0.09kPa
04:00
3.3°C 4.7°C 4.7°C - 100% 0.08kPa
05:00
3°C 4.7°C 4.9°C - 99% 0.1kPa
06:00
3.1°C 4.6°C 4.9°C - 100% 0.1kPa
07:00
3.1°C 4.6°C 4.9°C - 100% 0.1kPa
08:00
3.1°C 4.6°C 5.1°C - 100% 0.11kPa
09:00
3.3°C 4.6°C 5.6°C - 100% 0.13kPa
10:00
4.1°C 4.7°C 6°C - 100% 0.12kPa
11:00
4°C 5°C 6.6°C - 100% 0.16kPa
12:00
4.4°C 5.2°C 7°C - 100% 0.16kPa
13:00
5.1°C 5.5°C 7.2°C - 87% 0.14kPa
14:00
5.3°C 5.8°C 7.5°C - 77% 0.14kPa
15:00
5.4°C 6°C 7.5°C - 92% 0.13kPa
16:00
5.6°C 6.1°C 7.3°C - 100% 0.11kPa
17:00
5.8°C 6.2°C 6.8°C - 100% 0.06kPa
18:00
6°C 6.1°C 6.4°C - 100% 0.03kPa
19:00
6°C 6.1°C 6.2°C - 100% 0.02kPa
20:00
6°C 6°C 6.1°C - 100% 0.01kPa
21:00
6°C 6°C 6.2°C - 100% 0.01kPa
22:00
6.1°C 6°C 6.3°C - 100% 0.01kPa
23:00
6.1°C 6°C 6.3°C - 100% 0.01kPa
Tue, Feb 24 Sunrise 07:13 Sunset 17:38
24:00
6.3°C 6°C 6.5°C - 100% 0.01kPa
01:00
6.7°C 6°C 6.9°C - 100% 0.01kPa
02:00
7.1°C 6°C 7.3°C - 100% 0.01kPa
03:00
6.7°C 6.1°C 7.4°C - 100% 0.05kPa
04:00
5.4°C 6°C 6.5°C - 100% 0.07kPa
05:00
5.2°C 6°C 6.6°C - 100% 0.09kPa
06:00
5.6°C 6°C 6.5°C - 100% 0.06kPa
07:00
5.5°C 6°C 6.8°C - 100% 0.08kPa
08:00
5.5°C 5.9°C 6.2°C - 100% 0.05kPa
09:00
5.6°C 5.9°C 6.3°C - 100% 0.04kPa
10:00
6°C 6°C 7°C - 100% 0.06kPa
11:00
6.2°C 6.2°C 8.2°C - 93% 0.14kPa
12:00
5.6°C 6.6°C 9.2°C - 100% 0.25kPa
13:00
5.8°C 6.9°C 9.3°C - 96% 0.25kPa
14:00
5.8°C 7.2°C 9.9°C - 99% 0.29kPa
15:00
6.2°C 7.4°C 10°C - 100% 0.28kPa
16:00
6.1°C 7.6°C 9.6°C - 99% 0.25kPa
17:00
5.9°C 7.5°C 8.7°C - 100% 0.19kPa
18:00
5.3°C 7.4°C 7.2°C - 100% 0.13kPa
19:00
5.5°C 7.2°C 7°C - 100% 0.1kPa
20:00
6.3°C 7.1°C 7.7°C - 98% 0.09kPa
21:00
6.7°C 7.1°C 7.5°C - 100% 0.05kPa
22:00
6.6°C 7.1°C 7.8°C - 100% 0.08kPa
23:00
6.8°C 7°C 8°C - 100% 0.09kPa
Wed, Feb 25 Sunrise 07:10 Sunset 17:40
24:00
6.5°C 7°C 7.1°C - 100% 0.04kPa
01:00
6.5°C 6.4°C 7.2°C - 76% 0.04kPa
02:00
6.6°C 5.9°C 7.3°C - 52% 0.04kPa
03:00
6.7°C 5.3°C 7.4°C - 27% 0.05kPa
04:00
7°C 5.8°C 8.3°C - 52% 0.1kPa
05:00
7.2°C 6.2°C 9.3°C - 76% 0.16kPa
06:00
7.4°C 6.7°C 10°C - 100% 0.22kPa
07:00
7.7°C 6.9°C 10°C - 100% 0.2kPa
08:00
8°C 7.2°C 10°C - 100% 0.18kPa
09:00
8.2°C 7.4°C 10°C - 100% 0.15kPa
10:00
8°C 7.5°C 9.7°C - 100% 0.13kPa
11:00
7.8°C 7.6°C 9.3°C - 100% 0.11kPa
12:00
7.6°C 7.7°C 8.8°C - 100% 0.09kPa
13:00
7.5°C 7.6°C 8.4°C - 96% 0.07kPa
14:00
7.4°C 7.5°C 8°C - 92% 0.04kPa
15:00
7.3°C 7.4°C 7.6°C - 89% 0.02kPa
16:00
7.1°C 7.4°C 7.4°C - 89% 0.02kPa
17:00
6.9°C 7.3°C 7.3°C - 90% 0.03kPa
18:00
6.8°C 7.3°C 7.2°C - 91% 0.03kPa
How to read: these inputs help produce the derived score; they are not requirements by themselves.

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