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Rule Morning Frost

Derwentwater - Morning Frost - Lake District

Penrith, England, United Kingdom

Frost crystals on calm, cold mornings near sunrise

No opportunities right now
Here’s what usually blocks matches

No Morning Frost opportunities in the next 14 days

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Rule requirements (key thresholds)
Time Window · Sunrise -45m to +90m Frost Probability · ≥ 60.0% Wind Speed · ≤ 1.5m/s

Tip: Scroll down to the 72-hour table to see exactly which condition fails hour by hour.

Most common blockers (next 72 hours)
Frost Probability 100% failing
Wind Speed 97% failing
Time Window 88% failing

Currently

Real-time conditions
Soil Temperature9.2°C
Dew Point5.9°C (moderate dew point)
Wind Speed4.0m/s (calm conditions)
Cloud Cover100%

Upcoming Opportunities

When all conditions match, PhotoWeather marks an opportunity window.

Times shown in Europe/London

No opportunities in the next 10 days

See the blocker timeline below to understand which conditions are preventing matches.

What this forecast looks for

Plain-language explanation from the rule

This forecast tracks the conditions that create the Lake District's enchanting frost photography opportunities. We combine temperature, dewpoint, wind, and humidity data to predict when hoar frost will transform England's most romantic landscapes into glittering winter scenes.

The Lake District's combination of lakes, tarns, and sheltered valleys creates ideal conditions for heavy frost formation. England's naturally high humidity combined with calm, cold nights produces thick hoar frost deposits that coat every surface. The region's intimate scale means frost-covered scenes retain the romantic quality that has drawn artists here for centuries.

What makes the Lake District special for frost photography:

  • Frozen tarns - Small tarns like Tarn Hows freeze solid, creating pristine ice skating scenes
  • Frosted fells - Grasses and bracken on fell sides become forests of ice crystals
  • Lake shore ice - Derwentwater and Windermere develop fascinating ice formations along their shores
  • Romantic compositions - Frost-covered stone walls, bare trees, and winter light evoke Wordsworth's poetry

Tarn Hows becomes a winter jewel when frozen and frost-covered—the small tarn surrounded by frosted woodland creates postcard-perfect scenes. Derwentwater's shores develop intricate ice patterns, particularly in sheltered bays like the view from Friars Crag. Higher tarns like Blea Tarn freeze reliably and hold frost longer, often remaining photogenic well into morning. Frosted bracken on the lower fells catches golden morning light beautifully. The key is arriving at dawn after clear, calm nights—our forecast identifies these conditions and predicts how long frost will persist after sunrise.

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72-hour requirements breakdown

What passed or failed, hour by hour
0matching hours in the next 74 hours
AND logic: all conditions required
Meets requirement
Misses requirement
Time
Europe/London
Time Window
Sunrise -45m to +90m
Frost Probability
≥ 60.0%
Wind Speed
≤ 1.5m/s
Thu, Apr 9
05:000%4.2m/s
06:000%4.5m/s
07:000%4.4m/s
08:000%3.9m/s
09:000%4m/s
10:000%4.2m/s
11:000%3.5m/s
12:000%4.8m/s
13:000%6.7m/s
14:000%8.1m/s
15:000%5.4m/s
16:000%5.8m/s
17:000%7.7m/s
18:000%7.6m/s
19:000%7.5m/s
20:001%6.5m/s
21:001.1%6.6m/s
22:001.7%6.4m/s
23:002.1%6.8m/s
Fri, Apr 10
24:001.7%6m/s
01:002.1%5.7m/s
02:002.7%4.5m/s
03:002.7%4.5m/s
04:0030%3m/s
05:0034%1.6m/s
06:0023%1.7m/s
07:0032%1.9m/s
08:0022%1.2m/s
09:0028%2m/s
10:0033%2.4m/s
11:0035%2.9m/s
12:0035%3.4m/s
13:0033%3.9m/s
14:0031%5.4m/s
15:0029%5.7m/s
16:0032%5.4m/s
17:0029%6.4m/s
18:003%5.9m/s
19:002.6%6.9m/s
20:002.6%7.7m/s
21:0022%9m/s
22:007%7.8m/s
23:0011%6.4m/s
Sat, Apr 11
24:0014%9m/s
01:0022%9.4m/s
02:0011%8.7m/s
03:007%8.1m/s
04:007%6.8m/s
05:007%5.6m/s
06:0011%3.1m/s
07:0013%1.7m/s
08:0015%1.3m/s
09:0013%1.7m/s
10:0013%2.5m/s
11:0011%2.8m/s
12:0015%3.5m/s
13:0031%4.4m/s
14:0021%5.6m/s
15:0015%6.8m/s
16:0011%8.1m/s
17:0011%7.8m/s
18:0011%7.6m/s
19:007%7.3m/s
20:007%6.9m/s
21:007%6.5m/s
22:009%6.1m/s
23:009%6.9m/s
Sun, Apr 12
24:009%7.8m/s
01:009%8.7m/s
02:007%9.4m/s
03:007%10m/s
04:007%11m/s
05:007%11m/s
06:0011%12m/s
How to read: colored cells show whether each predicate requirement is met; highlighted rows mean the full rule matched (an opportunity).

What does Frost Probability mean?

Inputs that drive the score

This derived score summarizes multiple raw weather signals. The table below shows the supporting inputs hour by hour, so you can see what's pushing the score up or down.

Time
Europe/London
Dew Point
°C
Surface Temperature
°C
Temperature
°C
Time Window
Total Cloud Coverage
%
Vapor Pressure Deficit
kPa
Thu, Apr 9 Sunrise 06:23 Sunset 20:02
09:00
5.9°C 9.2°C 8.3°C - 100% 0.17kPa
10:00
5.9°C 9.1°C 7.9°C - 100% 0.14kPa
11:00
6.4°C 9.1°C 7.6°C - 100% 0.08kPa
12:00
6.4°C 9°C 8°C - 100% 0.11kPa
13:00
5°C 8.9°C 7.1°C - 100% 0.14kPa
14:00
4.4°C 8.8°C 5.8°C - 100% 0.08kPa
15:00
3.6°C 8.6°C 4.5°C - 100% 0.05kPa
16:00
2.7°C 8.5°C 5.8°C - 93% 0.18kPa
17:00
2.7°C 8.4°C 6.4°C - 94% 0.22kPa
18:00
1.8°C 8.3°C 5.6°C - 9% 0.21kPa
19:00
0.5°C 8.1°C 4.8°C - 5% 0.23kPa
20:00
1.9°C 7.8°C 3.2°C - 98% 0.06kPa
21:00
2.5°C 7.5°C 3.6°C - 79% 0.06kPa
22:00
2°C 7.3°C 3.9°C - 39% 0.1kPa
23:00
1.4°C 7.1°C 3.2°C - 25% 0.09kPa
Fri, Apr 10 Sunrise 06:23 Sunset 20:02
24:00
1.2°C 6.8°C 2.7°C - 25% 0.08kPa
01:00
0.8°C 6.6°C 2.5°C - 16% 0.08kPa
02:00
0.4°C 6.3°C 2.1°C - 8% 0.08kPa
03:00
0.1°C 6°C 1.6°C - 6% 0.07kPa
04:00
-0.5°C 5.8°C 0.8°C - 5% 0.06kPa
05:00
-1.3°C 5.6°C -0.04°C - 5% 0.05kPa
06:00
-1.5°C 5.5°C -0.25°C - 58% 0.05kPa
07:00
-1.2°C 5.4°C 0.16°C - 6% 0.06kPa
08:00
-0.2°C 5.3°C 2.2°C - 100% 0.11kPa
09:00
0.2°C 5.3°C 3.5°C - 100% 0.17kPa
10:00
-0.2°C 5.3°C 4.7°C - 100% 0.25kPa
11:00
-0.9°C 5.3°C 5.4°C - 100% 0.32kPa
12:00
-1.4°C 5.3°C 6.2°C - 100% 0.4kPa
13:00
-1.7°C 5.4°C 6.9°C - 100% 0.46kPa
14:00
-1.6°C 5.5°C 7.4°C - 100% 0.48kPa
15:00
-1.4°C 5.7°C 7.2°C - 92% 0.46kPa
16:00
-1.1°C 5.9°C 7.7°C - 75% 0.48kPa
17:00
-0.7°C 6°C 7.6°C - 84% 0.46kPa
18:00
0.4°C 6.1°C 6.9°C - 89% 0.36kPa
19:00
0.4°C 6.1°C 5.9°C - 92% 0.3kPa
20:00
0°C 6°C 5.3°C - 100% 0.28kPa
21:00
1°C 6°C 4.8°C - 100% 0.2kPa
22:00
3.2°C 5.9°C 3.8°C - 100% 0.04kPa
23:00
3°C 5.8°C 4.4°C - 98% 0.08kPa
Sat, Apr 11 Sunrise 06:21 Sunset 20:04
24:00
1.8°C 5.8°C 4.7°C - 97% 0.16kPa
01:00
1.4°C 5.7°C 4.6°C - 98% 0.17kPa
02:00
2.9°C 5.6°C 4.3°C - 100% 0.08kPa
03:00
3.5°C 5.6°C 4.5°C - 100% 0.05kPa
04:00
3.9°C 5.5°C 4.6°C - 100% 0.04kPa
05:00
3°C 5.5°C 3.2°C - 100% 0.01kPa
06:00
0.5°C 5.3°C 0.53°C - 100% 0kPa
07:00
0.1°C 5.1°C 0.35°C - 100% 0.01kPa
08:00
-0.2°C 5°C 0.25°C - 100% 0.02kPa
09:00
0.1°C 4.9°C 0.58°C - 100% 0.02kPa
10:00
0.4°C 4.8°C 0.8°C - 100% 0.02kPa
11:00
0.7°C 4.7°C 1.4°C - 100% 0.03kPa
12:00
1.3°C 4.6°C 2.4°C - 86% 0.06kPa
13:00
1.7°C 4.8°C 4.2°C - 6% 0.13kPa
14:00
1.6°C 4.7°C 3.9°C - 37% 0.12kPa
15:00
1.5°C 4.6°C 3.6°C - 68% 0.11kPa
16:00
1.4°C 4.5°C 3.3°C - 99% 0.1kPa
17:00
1.5°C 4.4°C 3°C - 99% 0.08kPa
18:00
1.6°C 4.3°C 2.7°C - 100% 0.06kPa
19:00
1.6°C 4.2°C 2.4°C - 100% 0.04kPa
20:00
2.1°C 4.1°C 2.7°C - 100% 0.03kPa
21:00
2.6°C 4.1°C 3°C - 100% 0.02kPa
22:00
3.1°C 4°C 3.4°C - 100% 0.02kPa
23:00
3°C 4°C 3.4°C - 100% 0.02kPa
Sun, Apr 12 Sunrise 06:18 Sunset 20:06
24:00
3°C 4°C 3.5°C - 100% 0.03kPa
01:00
3°C 4°C 3.6°C - 100% 0.03kPa
02:00
3.2°C 4°C 3.8°C - 100% 0.03kPa
03:00
3.4°C 4.1°C 4°C - 100% 0.03kPa
04:00
3.5°C 4.1°C 4.1°C - 100% 0.03kPa
05:00
3.5°C 4.1°C 4.4°C - 99% 0.05kPa
06:00
3.5°C 4.2°C 4.7°C - 97% 0.07kPa
07:00
3.5°C 4.2°C 5°C - 96% 0.09kPa
08:00
3.6°C 4.3°C 5.3°C - 94% 0.1kPa
How to read: these inputs help produce the derived score; they are not requirements by themselves.

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