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Rule Fog Hunter

Derwentwater - Fog Hunter - Lake District

Penrith, England, United Kingdom

Thick, moody fog for atmospheric forest and landscape shots

Upcoming Opportunities

When all conditions match, PhotoWeather marks an opportunity window.

Times shown in Europe/London
Next opportunity
Dense Fog (lingering)
Derwentwater
Thu, Jan 15 · 21:00–02:00 · 5h window
Medium confidence
47%
Dense Fog (lingering)
Derwentwater
Sat, Jan 17 · 23:00–06:00
Low
Dense Fog (lingering) at Sunrise
Derwentwater
Sun, Jan 18 · 07:00–10:00
Low
Dense Fog (lingering)
Derwentwater
Sun, Jan 18 · 10:00–13:00
Low

What this forecast looks for

Plain-language explanation from the rule

This forecast tracks the conditions that create the Lake District's legendary atmospheric photography. We combine fog probability, dewpoint spread, visibility, and wind data to predict when and where mist will form over these famous lakes and valleys.

The Lake District's combination of lakes, tarns, and enclosed valleys creates ideal conditions for fog formation. Cool, calm nights allow mist to pool in valley bottoms, creating ethereal scenes at dawn that have inspired poets and photographers for centuries.

What makes the Lake District special for fog photography:

  • Lake mist - Cold water surfaces generate fog that pools over the lakes at dawn
  • Valley inversions - Mountain-ringed valleys trap mist while fells rise above
  • Romantic landscapes - This is Wordsworth and Turner country, with timeless views
  • Accessible locations - Well-maintained paths reach viewpoints above the fog layer

Peak fog season runs from late August through October, when temperature differentials are greatest. The best conditions typically occur on calm, clear nights when temperatures drop near dewpoint. Arrive before dawn—lake mist often lifts within an hour or two of sunrise. Higher viewpoints like Catbells or Loughrigg offer shots looking down at fog-filled valleys.

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72-hour requirements breakdown

What passed or failed, hour by hour
0matching hours in the next 72 hours
AND logic: all conditions required
Meets requirement
Misses requirement
Time
Europe/London
Fog Probability
≥ 85.0%
Dewpoint Spread
≤ 2.0°C
Visibility
≤ 3000.0m
Wind Speed
≤ 2.0m/s
Sun, Jan 11
12:000%2.1°C17980m6m/s
13:000%2°C18040m5.9m/s
14:000%2°C17800m6m/s
15:000%1.8°C15220m6.8m/s
16:000%1.5°C10840m6.9m/s
17:000%1.4°C9820m6.8m/s
18:000%1.5°C11780m8m/s
19:000%1.7°C13180m8.8m/s
20:000%1.7°C14380m8.4m/s
21:000%1.9°C15920m7.8m/s
22:000%2.4°C21900m7.5m/s
23:000%2.4°C22020m8.4m/s
Mon, Jan 12
24:000%2.5°C23460m8.2m/s
01:000%2.5°C23500m7.7m/s
02:000%2.5°C23680m7m/s
03:000%2.4°C23580m6.7m/s
04:000%2.5°C24340m6.4m/s
05:000%2.5°C24300m5.4m/s
06:000%2.4°C23860m3.7m/s
07:000%2.3°C23200m2.7m/s
08:000%2.3°C22360m2.8m/s
09:000%2.2°C21940m3.2m/s
10:000%2.5°C25580m4.1m/s
11:000%3.1°C28780m5.5m/s
12:000%3.3°C29920m6m/s
13:000%3.1°C27920m5.9m/s
14:000%3.3°C28700m5.6m/s
15:000%3.1°C29660m6.1m/s
16:000%2.9°C28420m6m/s
17:000%2.7°C25740m5.2m/s
18:000%2.5°C25100m4.1m/s
19:000%2.5°C24800m3.2m/s
20:000%2.5°C25000m2.8m/s
21:000%2.7°C26160m2.6m/s
22:000%2.7°C27260m2.6m/s
23:000%2.7°C28000m1.4m/s
Tue, Jan 13
24:000%2.2°C21720m0.8m/s
01:000%1.8°C18180m0.3m/s
02:000%1.7°C15280m0.54m/s
03:000%1.5°C13200m0.41m/s
04:000%1°C8140m0.32m/s
05:0092%0.7°C4380m0.6m/s
06:0092%0.7°C4740m0.28m/s
07:0092%0.7°C4285m0.54m/s
08:0092%0.7°C4440m0.9m/s
09:0092%0.6°C3060m1.4m/s
10:0081%0.7°C5500m1.6m/s
11:000%1.2°C9940m2.1m/s
12:000%1.5°C14160m2.2m/s
13:000%1.7°C16100m2m/s
14:000%1.5°C13980m1.8m/s
15:000%1.4°C13140m1.4m/s
16:000%1.2°C10560m1m/s
17:000%1°C7480m1.3m/s
18:0038%0.9°C7020m1.6m/s
19:0038%0.9°C6220m0.81m/s
20:0046%0.6°C4300m0.76m/s
21:0047%0.4°C2780m0.5m/s
22:0054%0.1°C1760m0.36m/s
23:0097%0.3°C2340m2.2m/s
Wed, Jan 14
24:0092%0.6°C2800m2m/s
01:000%1°C8200m3.5m/s
02:000%1°C7420m4.1m/s
03:000%1.3°C11140m4.4m/s
04:000%1.3°C12000m3.7m/s
05:000%1.8°C18560m3.3m/s
06:000%1.6°C17140m2.7m/s
07:000%1.6°C17000m2.5m/s
08:000%1.6°C15900m2.3m/s
09:000%1.5°C13700m2m/s
10:000%1.8°C20220m1.9m/s
11:000%2.3°C26200m2.6m/s
How to read: colored cells show whether each predicate requirement is met; highlighted rows mean the full rule matched (an opportunity).

What does Fog Probability mean?

Inputs that drive the score

This derived score summarizes multiple raw weather signals. The table below shows the supporting inputs hour by hour, so you can see what's pushing the score up or down.

Time
Europe/London
Dew Point
°C
Rainfall
mm
Relative Humidity
%
Snowfall
cm
Temperature
°C
Total Precipitation
mm
Vapor Pressure Deficit
kPa
Wind Gusts
m/s
Sun, Jan 11 Sunrise 08:29 Sunset 16:09
13:00
3°C 0mm 87% 0cm 5°C 0mm 0.11kPa 11m/s
14:00
3.5°C 0mm 87% 0cm 5.5°C 0mm 0.12kPa 11m/s
15:00
3.9°C 0.2mm 88% 0cm 5.7°C 0.2mm 0.11kPa 12m/s
16:00
4.4°C 1mm 90% 0cm 5.9°C 1mm 0.09kPa 13m/s
17:00
4.9°C 2.5mm 91% 0cm 6.3°C 2.5mm 0.09kPa 12m/s
18:00
5.5°C 1.5mm 90% 0cm 7°C 1.5mm 0.1kPa 15m/s
19:00
5.9°C 1mm 89% 0cm 7.6°C 1mm 0.11kPa 16m/s
20:00
6.5°C 2.3mm 89% 0cm 8.2°C 2.3mm 0.12kPa 17m/s
21:00
6.8°C 1.8mm 88% 0cm 8.7°C 1.8mm 0.13kPa 16m/s
22:00
6.4°C 0.1mm 85% 0cm 8.8°C 0.1mm 0.17kPa 14m/s
23:00
6°C 0mm 85% 0cm 8.4°C 0mm 0.17kPa 16m/s
Mon, Jan 12 Sunrise 08:28 Sunset 16:10
24:00
5.7°C 0mm 84% 0cm 8.2°C 0mm 0.17kPa 16m/s
01:00
5.5°C 0mm 84% 0cm 8°C 0mm 0.17kPa 15m/s
02:00
5.4°C 0mm 84% 0cm 7.9°C 0mm 0.17kPa 14m/s
03:00
5.3°C 0mm 85% 0cm 7.7°C 0mm 0.16kPa 13m/s
04:00
5.1°C 0mm 84% 0cm 7.6°C 0mm 0.17kPa 12m/s
05:00
4.9°C 0mm 84% 0cm 7.4°C 0mm 0.16kPa 12m/s
06:00
4.8°C 0mm 85% 0cm 7.2°C 0mm 0.15kPa 9.5m/s
07:00
4.7°C 0mm 85% 0cm 7°C 0mm 0.15kPa 6.3m/s
08:00
4.7°C 0mm 85% 0cm 7°C 0mm 0.15kPa 4.9m/s
09:00
5°C 0mm 86% 0cm 7.2°C 0mm 0.14kPa 5.6m/s
10:00
5.3°C 0mm 84% 0cm 7.8°C 0mm 0.17kPa 7.4m/s
11:00
5.4°C 0mm 81% 0cm 8.5°C 0mm 0.21kPa 9.8m/s
12:00
5.6°C 0mm 80% 0cm 8.9°C 0mm 0.23kPa 11m/s
13:00
5.9°C 0mm 81% 0cm 9°C 0mm 0.22kPa 11m/s
14:00
5.6°C 0mm 80% 0cm 8.9°C 0mm 0.23kPa 11m/s
15:00
5.6°C 0mm 81% 0cm 8.7°C 0mm 0.21kPa 11m/s
16:00
5.3°C 0mm 82% 0cm 8.2°C 0mm 0.2kPa 11m/s
17:00
5.1°C 0mm 83% 0cm 7.8°C 0mm 0.18kPa 11m/s
18:00
5.1°C 0mm 84% 0cm 7.6°C 0mm 0.17kPa 9.2m/s
19:00
5°C 0mm 84% 0cm 7.5°C 0mm 0.17kPa 7.1m/s
20:00
5.1°C 0mm 84% 0cm 7.6°C 0mm 0.17kPa 5.4m/s
21:00
5.1°C 0mm 83% 0cm 7.8°C 0mm 0.18kPa 4.9m/s
22:00
5.2°C 0mm 83% 0cm 7.9°C 0mm 0.18kPa 4.7m/s
23:00
5.1°C 0mm 83% 0cm 7.8°C 0mm 0.18kPa 4.6m/s
Tue, Jan 13 Sunrise 08:27 Sunset 16:12
24:00
5°C 0mm 86% 0cm 7.2°C 0mm 0.14kPa 2.2m/s
01:00
4.9°C 0mm 88% 0cm 6.7°C 0mm 0.12kPa 1.3m/s
02:00
4.4°C 0mm 89% 0cm 6.1°C 0mm 0.1kPa 0.8m/s
03:00
3.9°C 0mm 90% 0cm 5.4°C 0mm 0.09kPa 0.9m/s
04:00
3.4°C 0mm 93% 0cm 4.4°C 0mm 0.06kPa 0.4m/s
05:00
2.7°C 0mm 95% 0cm 3.4°C 0mm 0.04kPa 1m/s
06:00
2.6°C 0mm 95% 0cm 3.3°C 0mm 0.04kPa 1.1m/s
07:00
2.5°C 0mm 95% 0cm 3.2°C 0mm 0.04kPa 1.1m/s
08:00
2.6°C 0mm 95% 0cm 3.3°C 0mm 0.04kPa 1.6m/s
09:00
2.9°C 0mm 96% 0cm 3.5°C 0mm 0.03kPa 2.4m/s
10:00
4.2°C 0mm 95% 0cm 4.9°C 0mm 0.04kPa 2.8m/s
11:00
4.8°C 0mm 92% 0cm 6°C 0mm 0.07kPa 3.1m/s
12:00
5.2°C 0mm 90% 0cm 6.7°C 0mm 0.1kPa 3.5m/s
13:00
5.2°C 0mm 89% 0cm 6.9°C 0mm 0.11kPa 3.5m/s
14:00
5.4°C 0mm 90% 0cm 6.9°C 0.1mm 0.1kPa 3.1m/s
15:00
5.4°C 0.2mm 91% 0cm 6.8°C 0.2mm 0.09kPa 2.6m/s
16:00
5.2°C 0.4mm 92% 0cm 6.4°C 0.4mm 0.08kPa 2m/s
17:00
5.1°C 0.1mm 93% 0cm 6.1°C 0.1mm 0.07kPa 1.9m/s
18:00
5°C 0.4mm 94% 0cm 5.9°C 0.4mm 0.06kPa 2.5m/s
19:00
4.8°C 0.9mm 94% 0cm 5.7°C 0.9mm 0.05kPa 2.5m/s
20:00
4.7°C 0.7mm 96% 0cm 5.3°C 0.7mm 0.04kPa 1.2m/s
21:00
4.5°C 0.4mm 97% 0cm 4.9°C 0.4mm 0.03kPa 1m/s
22:00
4.5°C 0.3mm 99% 0cm 4.6°C 0.3mm 0.01kPa 0.7m/s
23:00
4.1°C 0.1mm 98% 0cm 4.4°C 0.1mm 0.02kPa 3.5m/s
Wed, Jan 14 Sunrise 08:26 Sunset 16:14
24:00
4.4°C 0.1mm 96% 0cm 5°C 0.1mm 0.03kPa 3.7m/s
01:00
4°C 0mm 93% 0cm 5°C 0mm 0.06kPa 5.7m/s
02:00
3.5°C 0mm 93% 0cm 4.5°C 0mm 0.06kPa 6.5m/s
03:00
2.8°C 0mm 91% 0cm 4.1°C 0mm 0.07kPa 7.1m/s
04:00
2.3°C 0mm 91% 0cm 3.6°C 0mm 0.07kPa 7.3m/s
05:00
1.3°C 0mm 88% 0cm 3.1°C 0mm 0.09kPa 6.2m/s
06:00
0.9°C 0mm 89% 0cm 2.5°C 0mm 0.08kPa 5.4m/s
07:00
0.4°C 0mm 89% 0cm 2°C 0mm 0.08kPa 4.3m/s
08:00
0.3°C 0mm 89% 0cm 1.9°C 0mm 0.08kPa 3.9m/s
09:00
0.3°C 0mm 90% 0cm 1.8°C 0mm 0.07kPa 3.6m/s
10:00
0.4°C 0mm 88% 0cm 2.2°C 0mm 0.09kPa 3.1m/s
11:00
0.8°C 0mm 85% 0cm 3.1°C 0mm 0.11kPa 4.3m/s
12:00
0.7°C 0mm 80% 0cm 3.8°C 0mm 0.16kPa 5.6m/s
How to read: these inputs help produce the derived score; they are not requirements by themselves.

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