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Rule Morning Frost

Coniston Water - Morning Frost - Lake District

Coniston, England, United Kingdom

Frost crystals on calm, cold mornings near sunrise

No opportunities right now
Here’s what usually blocks matches

No Morning Frost opportunities in the next 14 days

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Rule requirements (key thresholds)
Time Window · Sunrise -45m to +90m Frost Probability · ≥ 60.0% Wind Speed · ≤ 1.5m/s

Tip: Scroll down to the 72-hour table to see exactly which condition fails hour by hour.

Most common blockers (next 72 hours)
Frost Probability 100% failing
Time Window 88% failing
Wind Speed 88% failing

Currently

Real-time conditions
Soil Temperature6.8°C
Dew Point4.7°C (low dew point)
Wind Speed9.6m/s (moderate winds)
Cloud Cover81%

Upcoming Opportunities

When all conditions match, PhotoWeather marks an opportunity window.

Times shown in Europe/London

No opportunities in the next 10 days

See the blocker timeline below to understand which conditions are preventing matches.

What this forecast looks for

Plain-language explanation from the rule

This forecast tracks the conditions that create the Lake District's enchanting frost photography opportunities. We combine temperature, dewpoint, wind, and humidity data to predict when hoar frost will transform England's most romantic landscapes into glittering winter scenes.

The Lake District's combination of lakes, tarns, and sheltered valleys creates ideal conditions for heavy frost formation. England's naturally high humidity combined with calm, cold nights produces thick hoar frost deposits that coat every surface. The region's intimate scale means frost-covered scenes retain the romantic quality that has drawn artists here for centuries.

What makes the Lake District special for frost photography:

  • Frozen tarns - Small tarns like Tarn Hows freeze solid, creating pristine ice skating scenes
  • Frosted fells - Grasses and bracken on fell sides become forests of ice crystals
  • Lake shore ice - Derwentwater and Windermere develop fascinating ice formations along their shores
  • Romantic compositions - Frost-covered stone walls, bare trees, and winter light evoke Wordsworth's poetry

Tarn Hows becomes a winter jewel when frozen and frost-covered—the small tarn surrounded by frosted woodland creates postcard-perfect scenes. Derwentwater's shores develop intricate ice patterns, particularly in sheltered bays like the view from Friars Crag. Higher tarns like Blea Tarn freeze reliably and hold frost longer, often remaining photogenic well into morning. Frosted bracken on the lower fells catches golden morning light beautifully. The key is arriving at dawn after clear, calm nights—our forecast identifies these conditions and predicts how long frost will persist after sunrise.

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72-hour requirements breakdown

What passed or failed, hour by hour
0matching hours in the next 95 hours
AND logic: all conditions required
Meets requirement
Misses requirement
Time
Europe/London
Time Window
Sunrise -45m to +90m
Frost Probability
≥ 60.0%
Wind Speed
≤ 1.5m/s
Sun, Feb 22
01:000.8%5.5m/s
02:000.8%5.1m/s
03:000.6%5.9m/s
04:000.8%5.2m/s
05:001%4.2m/s
06:000.8%4.6m/s
07:000.8%5.1m/s
08:000.7%6m/s
09:001%7.7m/s
10:001.7%7.8m/s
11:002.4%8.9m/s
12:002.8%9.4m/s
13:002.8%8.9m/s
14:000%8.5m/s
15:000%8.4m/s
16:000%7.5m/s
17:000%6.9m/s
18:001.3%7.4m/s
19:001.4%7.3m/s
20:001.3%8.4m/s
21:002.8%8.5m/s
22:002.4%8.6m/s
23:002.4%8.8m/s
Mon, Feb 23
24:002%8.8m/s
01:001.7%9.4m/s
02:001.3%9.6m/s
03:001.3%9.2m/s
04:001.3%8.2m/s
05:001.3%9m/s
06:001.3%8.3m/s
07:001.3%8.4m/s
08:001.3%7.9m/s
09:001.3%8.2m/s
10:001.3%8.7m/s
11:001.3%8.6m/s
12:001.3%8.5m/s
13:002.4%8m/s
14:001.7%7.4m/s
15:001.3%5.9m/s
16:001.2%5.1m/s
17:000.8%4.5m/s
18:001.2%2.7m/s
19:001.2%2.1m/s
20:001.4%1.5m/s
21:001.2%2.1m/s
22:001.2%2.5m/s
23:001.2%2.6m/s
Tue, Feb 24
24:001%3.6m/s
01:000.8%4.7m/s
02:000.8%4.7m/s
03:000.8%5.1m/s
04:001%6.2m/s
05:001%5.9m/s
06:001.2%4.2m/s
07:001%2.9m/s
08:001%2.9m/s
09:001.4%3m/s
10:001.7%3.5m/s
11:001.5%4.4m/s
12:002.8%4.4m/s
13:000%4.5m/s
14:000%4.3m/s
15:000%4.6m/s
16:000%5.4m/s
17:000%4.9m/s
18:000%4.4m/s
19:000%3.9m/s
20:000%3.4m/s
21:000%2.4m/s
22:000%1.8m/s
23:001.4%1.4m/s
Wed, Feb 25
24:001.6%0.66m/s
01:001.6%0.47m/s
02:001.4%0.96m/s
03:001.4%1m/s
04:001.8%1.2m/s
05:003.1%0.78m/s
06:002.7%0.55m/s
07:001.8%1.7m/s
08:001.1%2.8m/s
09:001%4m/s
10:001%4m/s
11:001%4m/s
12:001%4.1m/s
13:001%4.1m/s
14:001%4m/s
15:001%4m/s
16:000.8%4.2m/s
17:000.8%4.5m/s
18:000.8%4.7m/s
19:000.8%5.2m/s
20:000.6%5.8m/s
21:000.6%6.3m/s
22:000.6%6.4m/s
23:000.6%6.5m/s
How to read: colored cells show whether each predicate requirement is met; highlighted rows mean the full rule matched (an opportunity).

What does Frost Probability mean?

Inputs that drive the score

This derived score summarizes multiple raw weather signals. The table below shows the supporting inputs hour by hour, so you can see what's pushing the score up or down.

Time
Europe/London
Dew Point
°C
Surface Temperature
°C
Temperature
°C
Time Window
Total Cloud Coverage
%
Vapor Pressure Deficit
kPa
Mon, Feb 23 Sunrise 07:15 Sunset 17:36
02:00
4.7°C 6.8°C 6.6°C - 81% 0.12kPa
03:00
4.6°C 6.7°C 6.7°C - 100% 0.13kPa
04:00
4.8°C 6.7°C 6.7°C - 100% 0.12kPa
05:00
4.3°C 6.6°C 7.1°C - 100% 0.18kPa
06:00
4.1°C 6.6°C 6.9°C - 98% 0.18kPa
07:00
4.6°C 6.5°C 7°C - 100% 0.15kPa
08:00
4.9°C 6.5°C 7.1°C - 100% 0.15kPa
09:00
5°C 6.5°C 7.5°C - 100% 0.16kPa
10:00
5.4°C 6.6°C 8.1°C - 100% 0.19kPa
11:00
5.7°C 6.8°C 8.5°C - 100% 0.19kPa
12:00
6.1°C 7°C 8.8°C - 88% 0.19kPa
13:00
6.5°C 7.2°C 8.9°C - 20% 0.17kPa
14:00
6.8°C 7.4°C 9.1°C - 56% 0.17kPa
15:00
6.9°C 7.5°C 8.8°C - 99% 0.13kPa
16:00
7.1°C 7.6°C 8.2°C - 100% 0.07kPa
17:00
7.3°C 7.6°C 7.9°C - 100% 0.05kPa
18:00
7.3°C 7.6°C 7.7°C - 100% 0.03kPa
19:00
7.2°C 7.5°C 7.5°C - 100% 0.02kPa
20:00
7°C 7.5°C 7.2°C - 100% 0.01kPa
21:00
7°C 7.4°C 7.1°C - 100% 0.01kPa
22:00
7.1°C 7.4°C 7.2°C - 100% 0.01kPa
23:00
7.3°C 7.3°C 7.5°C - 100% 0.01kPa
Tue, Feb 24 Sunrise 07:13 Sunset 17:38
24:00
7.6°C 7.3°C 7.8°C - 100% 0.01kPa
01:00
8.1°C 7.4°C 8.3°C - 100% 0.02kPa
02:00
8°C 7.4°C 8.4°C - 100% 0.02kPa
03:00
7.3°C 7.4°C 8°C - 100% 0.05kPa
04:00
6.5°C 7.4°C 7.9°C - 100% 0.1kPa
05:00
6.4°C 7.4°C 7.9°C - 100% 0.1kPa
06:00
6.6°C 7.4°C 7.7°C - 100% 0.08kPa
07:00
6.5°C 7.3°C 7.4°C - 100% 0.06kPa
08:00
6.2°C 7.3°C 7°C - 100% 0.05kPa
09:00
6.3°C 7.2°C 7.4°C - 100% 0.07kPa
10:00
6.5°C 7.3°C 8.2°C - 94% 0.12kPa
11:00
6.7°C 7.5°C 9.2°C - 82% 0.18kPa
12:00
6.7°C 7.8°C 10°C - 99% 0.26kPa
13:00
6.4°C 8.1°C 11°C - 100% 0.33kPa
14:00
7°C 8.3°C 11°C - 77% 0.31kPa
15:00
7.3°C 8.6°C 11°C - 47% 0.32kPa
16:00
7°C 8.8°C 11°C - 31% 0.31kPa
17:00
6.6°C 8.8°C 10°C - 75% 0.25kPa
18:00
6.3°C 8.7°C 9.1°C - 82% 0.2kPa
19:00
6.7°C 8.5°C 8.5°C - 65% 0.13kPa
20:00
6.8°C 8.4°C 8°C - 99% 0.08kPa
21:00
6.6°C 8.2°C 7.4°C - 100% 0.06kPa
22:00
6.4°C 8°C 7.2°C - 100% 0.05kPa
23:00
6°C 7.8°C 6.8°C - 100% 0.05kPa
Wed, Feb 25 Sunrise 07:11 Sunset 17:40
24:00
5.9°C 7.6°C 6.7°C - 100% 0.05kPa
01:00
5.8°C 7.4°C 6.6°C - 100% 0.05kPa
02:00
5.6°C 7.2°C 6.4°C - 100% 0.05kPa
03:00
5.3°C 7°C 6.1°C - 94% 0.05kPa
04:00
5.1°C 6.8°C 5.8°C - 41% 0.05kPa
05:00
5°C 6.6°C 5.8°C - 8% 0.05kPa
06:00
5°C 6.4°C 5.6°C - 24% 0.04kPa
07:00
5.8°C 6.5°C 6.3°C - 49% 0.03kPa
08:00
6.7°C 6.5°C 7.1°C - 74% 0.02kPa
09:00
7.6°C 6.6°C 7.8°C - 100% 0.01kPa
10:00
7.7°C 6.7°C 7.9°C - 100% 0.01kPa
11:00
7.8°C 6.7°C 8°C - 100% 0.01kPa
12:00
7.9°C 6.8°C 8.1°C - 100% 0.01kPa
13:00
7.8°C 6.9°C 8°C - 100% 0.01kPa
14:00
7.7°C 6.9°C 7.9°C - 100% 0.01kPa
15:00
7.5°C 7°C 7.8°C - 100% 0.01kPa
16:00
7.2°C 7°C 7.5°C - 100% 0.02kPa
17:00
6.9°C 6.9°C 7.3°C - 100% 0.02kPa
18:00
6.6°C 6.9°C 7°C - 100% 0.03kPa
19:00
6.6°C 6.9°C 7°C - 100% 0.03kPa
20:00
6.6°C 6.8°C 7°C - 100% 0.02kPa
21:00
6.6°C 6.8°C 6.9°C - 100% 0.02kPa
22:00
6.5°C 6.8°C 6.9°C - 100% 0.02kPa
23:00
6.5°C 6.7°C 6.9°C - 100% 0.03kPa
Thu, Feb 26 Sunrise 07:08 Sunset 17:42
24:00
6.4°C 6.7°C 6.9°C - 100% 0.03kPa
01:00
6°C 6.6°C 6.7°C - 96% 0.05kPa
How to read: these inputs help produce the derived score; they are not requirements by themselves.

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