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Rule Morning Frost

Buttermere - Morning Frost - Lake District

Workington, England, United Kingdom

Frost crystals on calm, cold mornings near sunrise

No opportunities right now
Here’s what usually blocks matches

No Morning Frost opportunities in the next 14 days

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Rule requirements (key thresholds)
Time Window · Sunrise -45m to +90m Frost Probability · ≥ 60.0% Wind Speed · ≤ 1.5m/s

Tip: Scroll down to the 72-hour table to see exactly which condition fails hour by hour.

Most common blockers (next 72 hours)
Frost Probability 100% failing
Wind Speed 100% failing
Time Window 88% failing

Currently

Real-time conditions
Soil Temperature9725.9°C
Dew Point4.7°C (low dew point)
Wind Speed12.5m/s (moderate winds)
Cloud Cover100%

Upcoming Opportunities

When all conditions match, PhotoWeather marks an opportunity window.

Times shown in Europe/London

No opportunities in the next 10 days

See the blocker timeline below to understand which conditions are preventing matches.

What this forecast looks for

Plain-language explanation from the rule

This forecast tracks the conditions that create the Lake District's enchanting frost photography opportunities. We combine temperature, dewpoint, wind, and humidity data to predict when hoar frost will transform England's most romantic landscapes into glittering winter scenes.

The Lake District's combination of lakes, tarns, and sheltered valleys creates ideal conditions for heavy frost formation. England's naturally high humidity combined with calm, cold nights produces thick hoar frost deposits that coat every surface. The region's intimate scale means frost-covered scenes retain the romantic quality that has drawn artists here for centuries.

What makes the Lake District special for frost photography:

  • Frozen tarns - Small tarns like Tarn Hows freeze solid, creating pristine ice skating scenes
  • Frosted fells - Grasses and bracken on fell sides become forests of ice crystals
  • Lake shore ice - Derwentwater and Windermere develop fascinating ice formations along their shores
  • Romantic compositions - Frost-covered stone walls, bare trees, and winter light evoke Wordsworth's poetry

Tarn Hows becomes a winter jewel when frozen and frost-covered—the small tarn surrounded by frosted woodland creates postcard-perfect scenes. Derwentwater's shores develop intricate ice patterns, particularly in sheltered bays like the view from Friars Crag. Higher tarns like Blea Tarn freeze reliably and hold frost longer, often remaining photogenic well into morning. Frosted bracken on the lower fells catches golden morning light beautifully. The key is arriving at dawn after clear, calm nights—our forecast identifies these conditions and predicts how long frost will persist after sunrise.

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72-hour requirements breakdown

What passed or failed, hour by hour
0matching hours in the next 95 hours
AND logic: all conditions required
Meets requirement
Misses requirement
Time
Europe/London
Time Window
Sunrise -45m to +90m
Frost Probability
≥ 60.0%
Wind Speed
≤ 1.5m/s
Sun, Feb 22
02:000%8.2m/s
03:000%7.9m/s
04:000%7.6m/s
05:000%6.5m/s
06:000%7.2m/s
07:000%8.5m/s
08:000%9.1m/s
09:000%10m/s
10:000%12m/s
11:000%12m/s
12:000%13m/s
13:000%12m/s
14:000%12m/s
15:000%12m/s
16:000%11m/s
17:000%11m/s
18:000%12m/s
19:000%11m/s
20:000%11m/s
21:000%12m/s
22:000%12m/s
23:000%12m/s
Mon, Feb 23
24:000%13m/s
01:000%13m/s
02:000%12m/s
03:000%12m/s
04:000%13m/s
05:000%12m/s
06:000%12m/s
07:000%11m/s
08:000%11m/s
09:000%12m/s
10:000%11m/s
11:000%11m/s
12:000%11m/s
13:000%9.9m/s
14:000%8.7m/s
15:000%7.7m/s
16:000%6.7m/s
17:000%5.6m/s
18:000%5.8m/s
19:000%5.4m/s
20:000%3.9m/s
21:000%3.5m/s
22:000%3.4m/s
23:000%5.1m/s
Tue, Feb 24
24:000%8m/s
01:000%9.1m/s
02:000%9.8m/s
03:000%11m/s
04:000%11m/s
05:000%12m/s
06:000%10m/s
07:000%10m/s
08:000%10m/s
09:000%11m/s
10:000%11m/s
11:000%11m/s
12:000%11m/s
13:000%8.9m/s
14:000%8.8m/s
15:000%8.5m/s
16:000%9m/s
17:000%8m/s
18:000%6m/s
19:000%5.2m/s
20:000%5m/s
21:000%5.1m/s
22:000%7.5m/s
23:000%8.6m/s
Wed, Feb 25
24:000%7.4m/s
01:000%7.8m/s
02:000%5.8m/s
03:000%4.8m/s
04:000%4.7m/s
05:000%4.4m/s
06:000%5.1m/s
07:000%5.1m/s
08:000%5.2m/s
09:000.8%5.3m/s
10:000%5.4m/s
11:000%5.5m/s
12:000%5.6m/s
13:000%5.5m/s
14:000%5.4m/s
15:000%5.3m/s
16:000%5.2m/s
17:000%5.2m/s
18:000.8%5.1m/s
19:000.8%5.5m/s
20:000.6%6m/s
21:000.6%6.4m/s
22:000.6%7.4m/s
23:000.6%8.4m/s
Thu, Feb 26
24:000.6%9.4m/s
How to read: colored cells show whether each predicate requirement is met; highlighted rows mean the full rule matched (an opportunity).

What does Frost Probability mean?

Inputs that drive the score

This derived score summarizes multiple raw weather signals. The table below shows the supporting inputs hour by hour, so you can see what's pushing the score up or down.

Time
Europe/London
Dew Point
°C
Surface Temperature
°C
Temperature
°C
Time Window
Total Cloud Coverage
%
Vapor Pressure Deficit
kPa
Mon, Feb 23 Sunrise 07:18 Sunset 17:37
02:00
4.7°C 9726°C 6.9°C - 100% 0.14kPa
03:00
4.8°C 9726°C 6.9°C - 100% 0.14kPa
04:00
4.6°C 9726°C 7.1°C - 100% 0.16kPa
05:00
4.4°C 9726°C 7.2°C - 99% 0.18kPa
06:00
4.4°C 9726°C 7.3°C - 100% 0.18kPa
07:00
4.5°C 9726°C 7.1°C - 100% 0.16kPa
08:00
4.2°C 9726°C 7.5°C - 100% 0.21kPa
09:00
4.4°C 9726°C 7.4°C - 100% 0.19kPa
10:00
4.6°C 9726°C 7.3°C - 100% 0.18kPa
11:00
4.6°C 9726°C 7.4°C - 100% 0.19kPa
12:00
4.9°C 9726°C 7.4°C - 100% 0.16kPa
13:00
5.3°C 9726°C 7.5°C - 100% 0.14kPa
14:00
5.5°C 9726°C 7.5°C - 99% 0.13kPa
15:00
6°C 9726°C 7.3°C - 93% 0.09kPa
16:00
6.3°C 9726°C 7.3°C - 90% 0.07kPa
17:00
6.3°C 9726°C 7.3°C - 100% 0.07kPa
18:00
6.7°C 9726°C 7.3°C - 100% 0.04kPa
19:00
6.9°C 9726°C 7.2°C - 100% 0.02kPa
20:00
6.8°C 9726°C 7.1°C - 100% 0.02kPa
21:00
6.8°C 9726°C 7.3°C - 100% 0.03kPa
22:00
6.8°C 9726°C 7.6°C - 100% 0.06kPa
23:00
7.1°C 9726°C 7.9°C - 100% 0.06kPa
Tue, Feb 24 Sunrise 07:15 Sunset 17:39
24:00
7.7°C 9726°C 8.3°C - 100% 0.04kPa
01:00
7.8°C 9726°C 8.4°C - 100% 0.04kPa
02:00
7.7°C 9726°C 8.1°C - 100% 0.03kPa
03:00
7°C 9726°C 7.9°C - 100% 0.06kPa
04:00
6.3°C 9726°C 7.9°C - 100% 0.11kPa
05:00
5.8°C 9726°C 8.1°C - 100% 0.16kPa
06:00
6.1°C 9726°C 7.9°C - 100% 0.12kPa
07:00
6.3°C 9726°C 7.9°C - 100% 0.11kPa
08:00
6.5°C 9726°C 7.9°C - 100% 0.1kPa
09:00
6.5°C 9726°C 8°C - 100% 0.1kPa
10:00
6.4°C 9726°C 8.4°C - 100% 0.14kPa
11:00
6.1°C 9726°C 8.8°C - 100% 0.18kPa
12:00
5.9°C 9726°C 9.1°C - 86% 0.23kPa
13:00
5.7°C 9726°C 9.4°C - 100% 0.26kPa
14:00
5.2°C 9726°C 9.8°C - 98% 0.33kPa
15:00
4.9°C 9726°C 10°C - 74% 0.37kPa
16:00
4.8°C 9726°C 10°C - 100% 0.39kPa
17:00
5°C 9726°C 10°C - 100% 0.35kPa
18:00
5.3°C 9726°C 9.1°C - 100% 0.27kPa
19:00
5.5°C 9726°C 8.5°C - 100% 0.2kPa
20:00
5.8°C 9726°C 8.5°C - 100% 0.18kPa
21:00
5.8°C 9726°C 8.6°C - 100% 0.2kPa
22:00
6.5°C 9726°C 9.5°C - 100% 0.22kPa
23:00
7.1°C 9726°C 9.7°C - 100% 0.2kPa
Wed, Feb 25 Sunrise 07:13 Sunset 17:41
24:00
6.6°C 9726°C 9.7°C - 100% 0.23kPa
01:00
6.4°C 9726°C 9.9°C - 100% 0.26kPa
02:00
6.3°C 9726°C 9.5°C - 99% 0.23kPa
03:00
6.1°C 9726°C 9.2°C - 96% 0.22kPa
04:00
5.9°C 9726°C 8.7°C - 92% 0.2kPa
05:00
5.9°C 9726°C 8.4°C - 100% 0.17kPa
06:00
6°C 9726°C 8.6°C - 62% 0.18kPa
07:00
6.8°C 6487°C 8.6°C - 75% 0.13kPa
08:00
7.5°C 3247°C 8.6°C - 87% 0.08kPa
09:00
8.2°C 8°C 8.6°C - 100% 0.03kPa
10:00
8.2°C 8°C 8.7°C - 100% 0.04kPa
11:00
8.1°C 8.1°C 8.8°C - 100% 0.05kPa
12:00
8.1°C 8.1°C 8.9°C - 100% 0.06kPa
13:00
7.9°C 8.1°C 8.8°C - 100% 0.07kPa
14:00
7.6°C 8.1°C 8.7°C - 99% 0.08kPa
15:00
7.4°C 8.1°C 8.6°C - 99% 0.08kPa
16:00
7.4°C 8°C 8.3°C - 99% 0.07kPa
17:00
7.4°C 8°C 8.1°C - 100% 0.06kPa
18:00
7.3°C 8°C 7.9°C - 100% 0.04kPa
19:00
7.3°C 7.9°C 7.7°C - 100% 0.03kPa
20:00
7.2°C 7.8°C 7.5°C - 100% 0.02kPa
21:00
7.1°C 7.7°C 7.3°C - 100% 0.01kPa
22:00
7.1°C 7.7°C 7.3°C - 100% 0.01kPa
23:00
7°C 7.6°C 7.2°C - 100% 0.01kPa
Thu, Feb 26 Sunrise 07:11 Sunset 17:43
24:00
7°C 7.5°C 7.2°C - 100% 0.01kPa
01:00
6.9°C 7.3°C 7.1°C - 99% 0.01kPa
How to read: these inputs help produce the derived score; they are not requirements by themselves.

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