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Rule Morning Frost

Blea Tarn - Morning Frost - Lake District

Chapel Stile, England, United Kingdom

Frost crystals on calm, cold mornings near sunrise

No opportunities right now
Here’s what usually blocks matches

No Morning Frost opportunities in the next 14 days

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Rule requirements (key thresholds)
Time Window · Sunrise -45m to +90m Frost Probability · ≥ 60.0% Wind Speed · ≤ 1.5m/s

Tip: Scroll down to the 72-hour table to see exactly which condition fails hour by hour.

Most common blockers (next 72 hours)
Frost Probability 100% failing
Wind Speed 100% failing
Time Window 88% failing

Currently

Real-time conditions
Soil Temperature5.8°C
Dew Point6.7°C (moderate dew point)
Wind Speed2.1m/s (calm conditions)
Cloud Cover100%

Upcoming Opportunities

When all conditions match, PhotoWeather marks an opportunity window.

Times shown in Europe/London

No opportunities in the next 10 days

See the blocker timeline below to understand which conditions are preventing matches.

What this forecast looks for

Plain-language explanation from the rule

This forecast tracks the conditions that create the Lake District's enchanting frost photography opportunities. We combine temperature, dewpoint, wind, and humidity data to predict when hoar frost will transform England's most romantic landscapes into glittering winter scenes.

The Lake District's combination of lakes, tarns, and sheltered valleys creates ideal conditions for heavy frost formation. England's naturally high humidity combined with calm, cold nights produces thick hoar frost deposits that coat every surface. The region's intimate scale means frost-covered scenes retain the romantic quality that has drawn artists here for centuries.

What makes the Lake District special for frost photography:

  • Frozen tarns - Small tarns like Tarn Hows freeze solid, creating pristine ice skating scenes
  • Frosted fells - Grasses and bracken on fell sides become forests of ice crystals
  • Lake shore ice - Derwentwater and Windermere develop fascinating ice formations along their shores
  • Romantic compositions - Frost-covered stone walls, bare trees, and winter light evoke Wordsworth's poetry

Tarn Hows becomes a winter jewel when frozen and frost-covered—the small tarn surrounded by frosted woodland creates postcard-perfect scenes. Derwentwater's shores develop intricate ice patterns, particularly in sheltered bays like the view from Friars Crag. Higher tarns like Blea Tarn freeze reliably and hold frost longer, often remaining photogenic well into morning. Frosted bracken on the lower fells catches golden morning light beautifully. The key is arriving at dawn after clear, calm nights—our forecast identifies these conditions and predicts how long frost will persist after sunrise.

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72-hour requirements breakdown

What passed or failed, hour by hour
0matching hours in the next 95 hours
AND logic: all conditions required
Meets requirement
Misses requirement
Time
Europe/London
Time Window
Sunrise -45m to +90m
Frost Probability
≥ 60.0%
Wind Speed
≤ 1.5m/s
Mon, Apr 13
20:004.9%1.6m/s
21:0045%1.3m/s
22:0045%0.9m/s
23:0045%0.87m/s
Tue, Apr 14
24:0045%1m/s
01:0045%1.1m/s
02:0045%1.1m/s
03:0037%1.2m/s
04:0037%1.2m/s
05:0034%1.3m/s
06:0034%1.4m/s
07:0036%1.5m/s
08:0039%1.5m/s
09:0039%2.2m/s
10:0033%3.2m/s
11:0032%4m/s
12:0029%4.7m/s
13:0029%5.5m/s
14:0016%4.5m/s
15:0015%4m/s
16:0011%3.6m/s
17:0011%3.2m/s
18:0013%2.6m/s
19:0013%2.4m/s
20:0013%2.1m/s
21:0013%1.9m/s
22:0013%1.8m/s
23:0013%1.9m/s
Wed, Apr 15
24:0013%2.3m/s
01:001.2%2.8m/s
02:001%3m/s
03:001%3.5m/s
04:001%3.7m/s
05:001%4.2m/s
06:001%3.8m/s
07:001%3.6m/s
08:001%3.8m/s
09:001%3.8m/s
10:001%4.2m/s
11:000.8%4.5m/s
12:000.6%5.8m/s
13:001.3%6.3m/s
14:001%6.2m/s
15:000.6%7.3m/s
16:001.2%4.4m/s
17:001.1%5.7m/s
18:000%6.9m/s
19:002%7.6m/s
20:001%7.4m/s
21:001.1%7.8m/s
22:000.6%7.8m/s
23:000.6%8.4m/s
Thu, Apr 16
24:000.6%8.7m/s
01:000.6%8.7m/s
02:001.1%9.9m/s
03:000.6%8.5m/s
04:001%7.3m/s
05:000.7%6.1m/s
06:000.6%6.4m/s
07:001%5.9m/s
08:001.1%5.8m/s
09:002%6.2m/s
10:001.7%7.5m/s
11:001.3%7.5m/s
12:003%6.6m/s
13:003.3%6.1m/s
14:003%6m/s
15:002.9%5.2m/s
16:000%5m/s
17:000%4.4m/s
18:000%3.7m/s
19:000%2.4m/s
20:000%2.5m/s
21:000%2.5m/s
22:001.2%2.6m/s
23:001.2%2.7m/s
Fri, Apr 17
24:001.2%2.4m/s
01:001.2%2.2m/s
02:001.2%2.6m/s
03:001%3m/s
04:001.4%3.4m/s
05:001%3.4m/s
06:001%3.5m/s
07:001%3.5m/s
08:001%3.7m/s
09:001.4%3.8m/s
10:001.4%4m/s
11:001.2%4.2m/s
12:001.2%4.4m/s
13:001.2%4.6m/s
14:000.8%4.4m/s
15:001%4.1m/s
16:001%3.8m/s
17:000.9%4.3m/s
18:001.2%4.7m/s
How to read: colored cells show whether each predicate requirement is met; highlighted rows mean the full rule matched (an opportunity).

What does Frost Probability mean?

Inputs that drive the score

This derived score summarizes multiple raw weather signals. The table below shows the supporting inputs hour by hour, so you can see what's pushing the score up or down.

Time
Europe/London
Dew Point
°C
Surface Temperature
°C
Temperature
°C
Time Window
Total Cloud Coverage
%
Vapor Pressure Deficit
kPa
Tue, Apr 14 Sunrise 06:13 Sunset 20:12
20:00
6.7°C 5.8°C 6.8°C - 100% 0.01kPa
21:00
6.7°C 5.8°C 6.9°C - 100% 0.01kPa
22:00
6.7°C 5.9°C 6.9°C - 100% 0.01kPa
23:00
6.7°C 5.9°C 6.9°C - 100% 0.01kPa
Wed, Apr 15 Sunrise 06:13 Sunset 20:12
24:00
7°C 6°C 7.1°C - 100% 0.01kPa
01:00
7.4°C 6.1°C 7.6°C - 100% 0.01kPa
02:00
7.9°C 6.2°C 8°C - 100% 0.01kPa
03:00
8.1°C 6.3°C 8.3°C - 100% 0.01kPa
04:00
8.4°C 6.4°C 8.6°C - 100% 0.01kPa
05:00
8.6°C 6.6°C 8.8°C - 100% 0.01kPa
06:00
8.6°C 6.7°C 8.8°C - 100% 0.01kPa
07:00
8.7°C 6.8°C 8.8°C - 100% 0.01kPa
08:00
8.6°C 6.9°C 8.9°C - 100% 0.02kPa
09:00
9°C 7°C 9.2°C - 100% 0.02kPa
10:00
9.4°C 7.2°C 9.6°C - 100% 0.02kPa
11:00
9.5°C 7.3°C 9.8°C - 100% 0.02kPa
12:00
9.6°C 7.5°C 10°C - 99% 0.06kPa
13:00
9.6°C 7.6°C 11°C - 100% 0.13kPa
14:00
9.3°C 7.8°C 11°C - 100% 0.1kPa
15:00
9.4°C 7.9°C 10°C - 100% 0.05kPa
16:00
7°C 8°C 8.1°C - 100% 0.08kPa
17:00
7.2°C 7.9°C 8.4°C - 79% 0.09kPa
18:00
7.4°C 8.1°C 8.9°C - 69% 0.1kPa
19:00
6.6°C 8°C 8.4°C - 36% 0.12kPa
20:00
5.7°C 7.9°C 7°C - 100% 0.08kPa
21:00
5.6°C 7.7°C 6.8°C - 80% 0.08kPa
22:00
5.6°C 7.6°C 6.4°C - 100% 0.05kPa
23:00
6.2°C 7.5°C 6.7°C - 100% 0.03kPa
Thu, Apr 16 Sunrise 06:10 Sunset 20:14
24:00
6°C 7.4°C 6.8°C - 100% 0.05kPa
01:00
6°C 7.3°C 6.7°C - 100% 0.04kPa
02:00
5.4°C 7.2°C 6.6°C - 80% 0.07kPa
03:00
5.4°C 7.1°C 6.4°C - 94% 0.06kPa
04:00
5.4°C 7°C 6.3°C - 50% 0.06kPa
05:00
4.9°C 6.9°C 5.6°C - 64% 0.04kPa
06:00
4.8°C 6.7°C 5.6°C - 96% 0.05kPa
07:00
5.1°C 6.7°C 6.1°C - 98% 0.07kPa
08:00
5°C 6.6°C 6.6°C - 78% 0.1kPa
09:00
5.2°C 6.7°C 7.1°C - 26% 0.12kPa
10:00
5.3°C 6.7°C 7.8°C - 48% 0.16kPa
11:00
5.5°C 7°C 8.1°C - 84% 0.18kPa
12:00
5.3°C 7.1°C 8.5°C - 55% 0.21kPa
13:00
5°C 7.5°C 9.1°C - 39% 0.28kPa
14:00
5°C 7.6°C 9.5°C - 50% 0.31kPa
15:00
5.1°C 8°C 9.6°C - 65% 0.31kPa
16:00
5.1°C 8.1°C 9.8°C - 45% 0.33kPa
17:00
5.1°C 8.4°C 9.6°C - 100% 0.31kPa
18:00
5.1°C 8.5°C 9.1°C - 100% 0.27kPa
19:00
5.6°C 8.5°C 8.3°C - 100% 0.18kPa
20:00
5.2°C 8.2°C 6.6°C - 100% 0.08kPa
21:00
5.3°C 8°C 5.9°C - 100% 0.04kPa
22:00
5.4°C 7.8°C 5.8°C - 100% 0.02kPa
23:00
5.6°C 7.6°C 6°C - 100% 0.02kPa
Fri, Apr 17 Sunrise 06:08 Sunset 20:16
24:00
5.6°C 7.5°C 6°C - 100% 0.02kPa
01:00
5.6°C 7.3°C 6.1°C - 100% 0.03kPa
02:00
5.7°C 7.1°C 6.4°C - 100% 0.05kPa
03:00
5.8°C 6.8°C 6.7°C - 100% 0.06kPa
04:00
5.9°C 6.6°C 7°C - 100% 0.08kPa
05:00
6.2°C 6.6°C 7.2°C - 100% 0.06kPa
06:00
6.6°C 6.6°C 7.3°C - 100% 0.05kPa
07:00
7°C 6.7°C 7.5°C - 100% 0.04kPa
08:00
7.3°C 6.8°C 8°C - 98% 0.05kPa
09:00
7.5°C 6.9°C 8.5°C - 95% 0.07kPa
10:00
7.8°C 7°C 9°C - 93% 0.09kPa
11:00
7.8°C 7.1°C 9°C - 95% 0.09kPa
12:00
7.9°C 7.2°C 9°C - 98% 0.09kPa
13:00
7.9°C 7.4°C 9°C - 100% 0.08kPa
14:00
7.3°C 7.3°C 8.1°C - 100% 0.06kPa
15:00
6.7°C 7.3°C 7.3°C - 100% 0.04kPa
16:00
6.1°C 7.3°C 6.4°C - 100% 0.02kPa
17:00
5.8°C 7.1°C 6.2°C - 74% 0.03kPa
18:00
5.5°C 7°C 6.1°C - 48% 0.03kPa
19:00
5.2°C 6.9°C 5.9°C - 22% 0.04kPa
How to read: these inputs help produce the derived score; they are not requirements by themselves.

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