Rule
Northern Lights
Northern Lights Forecast for Riksgränsen, Swedish Lapland
Riksgränsen, Norrbotten, Sweden
Riksgränsen sits on the Norwegian border where the railway crosses a high, treeless mountain pass rather than a forested river valley. Rounded peaks, deep snowfields, and rapidly arriving maritime cloud give the settlement a distinctly alpine visual character.
3 matching opportunities in the 14-day forecast.
Hourly forecast scores
Forecast valid from Oct 8, 2026, 2:00 PM UTC (one hour; not an observation)Kp IndexKp 1
Sun Elevation7.7°
Cloud Cover86%
Upcoming Opportunities
When all conditions match, PhotoWeather marks an opportunity window.
Times shown in Europe/Stockholm
First upcoming window
Good Chance of Aurora
Riksgränsen
Fri, Oct 9 · 19:00–21:00 · 2h window
Low confidence
42%
🌌Aurora Quality62-75.9%
Kp Index: Kp 3 (Unsettled)
Sun Elevation: -8.3° (Nautical twilight)
Cloud Cover: 2%
Good Chance of Aurora
Riksgränsen
Sun, Oct 11 · 21:00–22:00
🌌Aurora Quality:64.5%
Low
Good Chance of Aurora
Riksgränsen
Mon, Oct 12 · 19:00–23:00
🌌Aurora Quality:66.2-75.9%
Low
71-hour requirements breakdown
When available, this detailed table covers only the stated 71-hour horizon (typically 72–168 hours, depending on available hourly data). Opportunity records above span the full 14-day forecast period, so this table does not explain that entire period. Times shown in Europe/Stockholm.
Most common blockers
Ranked across the 95-hour forecast horizon, not the full opportunity period.
- Aurora Quality83% of hours
- Total Cloud Coverage67% of hours
- Solar Elevation51% of hours
AND logic: all conditions required
Meets requirement
Misses requirement
Time Europe/Stockholm | Aurora Quality ≥ 50.0% | Solar Elevation ≤ -8.0° | Aurora Activity ≥ 50.0% | Total Cloud Coverage ≤ 30.0% | Visibility ≥ 8000.0m |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu, Oct 8 | |||||
| Rule fails. 16:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: 7.7°. Misses requirement | Aurora Activity: 21%. Misses requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 86%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 1060m. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 17:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: 3.1°. Misses requirement | Aurora Activity: 21%. Misses requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 94%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 2920m. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 18:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: -2.3°. Misses requirement | Aurora Activity: 7.2%. Misses requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 90%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 2420m. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 19:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: -7.9°. Misses requirement | Aurora Activity: 7.2%. Misses requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 80%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 1680m. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 20:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: -13°. Meets requirement | Aurora Activity: 7.2%. Misses requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 85%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 660m. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 21:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: -18°. Meets requirement | Aurora Activity: 7.2%. Misses requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 91%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 540m. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 22:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: -23°. Meets requirement | Aurora Activity: 7.2%. Misses requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 97%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 18220m. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 23:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: -26°. Meets requirement | Aurora Activity: 7.2%. Misses requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 98%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 5180m. Misses requirement |
| Fri, Oct 9 | |||||
| Rule fails. 24:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: -27°. Meets requirement | Aurora Activity: 7.2%. Misses requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 99%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 4360m. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 01:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: -28°. Meets requirement | Aurora Activity: 7.2%. Misses requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 97%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 6240m. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 02:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: -26°. Meets requirement | Aurora Activity: 7.2%. Misses requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 96%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 7860m. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 03:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: -23°. Meets requirement | Aurora Activity: 7.2%. Misses requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 87%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 480m. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 04:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: -19°. Meets requirement | Aurora Activity: 7.2%. Misses requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 78%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 400m. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 05:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: -14°. Meets requirement | Aurora Activity: 100%. Meets requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 88%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 200m. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 06:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: -9°. Meets requirement | Aurora Activity: 100%. Meets requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 90%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 600m. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 07:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: -3.4°. Misses requirement | Aurora Activity: 100%. Meets requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 91%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 36140m. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 08:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: 2.1°. Misses requirement | Aurora Activity: 100%. Meets requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 90%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 32140m. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 09:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: 6.7°. Misses requirement | Aurora Activity: 100%. Meets requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 82%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 20000m. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 10:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: 11°. Misses requirement | Aurora Activity: 100%. Meets requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 60%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 21040m. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 11:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: 13°. Misses requirement | Aurora Activity: 100%. Meets requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 33%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 3780m. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 12:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: 15°. Misses requirement | Aurora Activity: 100%. Meets requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 15%. Meets requirement | Visibility: 9640m. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 13:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: 15°. Misses requirement | Aurora Activity: 100%. Meets requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 4%. Meets requirement | Visibility: 17440m. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 14:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: 14°. Misses requirement | Aurora Activity: 96%. Meets requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 4%. Meets requirement | Visibility: 18460m. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 15:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: 11°. Misses requirement | Aurora Activity: 96%. Meets requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 3%. Meets requirement | Visibility: 15740m. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 16:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: 7.3°. Misses requirement | Aurora Activity: 96%. Meets requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 1%. Meets requirement | Visibility: 12560m. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 17:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: 2.7°. Misses requirement | Aurora Activity: 62%. Meets requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 0%. Meets requirement | Visibility: 11320m. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 18:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: -2.7°. Misses requirement | Aurora Activity: 62%. Meets requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 0%. Meets requirement | Visibility: 17340m. Meets requirement |
| Rule passes. 19:00 | Aurora Quality: 62%. Meets requirement | Solar Elevation: -8.3°. Meets requirement | Aurora Activity: 62%. Meets requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 2%. Meets requirement | Visibility: 68280m. Meets requirement |
| Rule passes. 20:00 | Aurora Quality: 76%. Meets requirement | Solar Elevation: -14°. Meets requirement | Aurora Activity: 62%. Meets requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 3%. Meets requirement | Visibility: 67640m. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 21:00 | Aurora Quality: 68%. Meets requirement | Solar Elevation: -19°. Meets requirement | Aurora Activity: 62%. Meets requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 0%. Meets requirement | Visibility: 2120m. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 22:00 | Aurora Quality: 68%. Meets requirement | Solar Elevation: -23°. Meets requirement | Aurora Activity: 62%. Meets requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 0%. Meets requirement | Visibility: 620m. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 23:00 | Aurora Quality: 85%. Meets requirement | Solar Elevation: -26°. Meets requirement | Aurora Activity: 96%. Meets requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 0%. Meets requirement | Visibility: 480m. Misses requirement |
| Sat, Oct 10 | |||||
| Rule fails. 24:00 | Aurora Quality: 85%. Meets requirement | Solar Elevation: -28°. Meets requirement | Aurora Activity: 96%. Meets requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 0%. Meets requirement | Visibility: 600m. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 01:00 | Aurora Quality: 85%. Meets requirement | Solar Elevation: -28°. Meets requirement | Aurora Activity: 96%. Meets requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 2%. Meets requirement | Visibility: 700m. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 02:00 | Aurora Quality: 85%. Meets requirement | Solar Elevation: -27°. Meets requirement | Aurora Activity: 96%. Meets requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 3%. Meets requirement | Visibility: 700m. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 03:00 | Aurora Quality: 85%. Meets requirement | Solar Elevation: -24°. Meets requirement | Aurora Activity: 96%. Meets requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 3%. Meets requirement | Visibility: 760m. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 04:00 | Aurora Quality: 85%. Meets requirement | Solar Elevation: -20°. Meets requirement | Aurora Activity: 96%. Meets requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 1%. Meets requirement | Visibility: 4440m. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 05:00 | Aurora Quality: 79%. Meets requirement | Solar Elevation: -15°. Meets requirement | Aurora Activity: 84%. Meets requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 0%. Meets requirement | Visibility: 5060m. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 06:00 | Aurora Quality: 69%. Meets requirement | Solar Elevation: -9.3°. Meets requirement | Aurora Activity: 84%. Meets requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 0%. Meets requirement | Visibility: 4000m. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 07:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: -3.8°. Misses requirement | Aurora Activity: 84%. Meets requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 0%. Meets requirement | Visibility: 2880m. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 08:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: 1.8°. Misses requirement | Aurora Activity: 62%. Meets requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 10%. Meets requirement | Visibility: 2160m. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 09:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: 6.4°. Misses requirement | Aurora Activity: 62%. Meets requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 41%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 540m. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 10:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: 10°. Misses requirement | Aurora Activity: 62%. Meets requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 24%. Meets requirement | Visibility: 1980m. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 11:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: 13°. Misses requirement | Aurora Activity: 62%. Meets requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 11%. Meets requirement | Visibility: 7440m. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 12:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: 15°. Misses requirement | Aurora Activity: 62%. Meets requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 17%. Meets requirement | Visibility: 76360m. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 13:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: 15°. Misses requirement | Aurora Activity: 62%. Meets requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 40%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 79240m. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 14:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: 13°. Misses requirement | Aurora Activity: 21%. Misses requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 52%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 79240m. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 15:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: 11°. Misses requirement | Aurora Activity: 21%. Misses requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 62%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 79240m. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 16:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: 6.9°. Misses requirement | Aurora Activity: 21%. Misses requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 87%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 79240m. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 17:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: 2.3°. Misses requirement | Aurora Activity: 15%. Misses requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 90%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 23020m. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 18:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: -3.1°. Misses requirement | Aurora Activity: 15%. Misses requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 89%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 8020m. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 19:00 | Aurora Quality: 21%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: -8.7°. Meets requirement | Aurora Activity: 15%. Misses requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 92%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 9920m. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 20:00 | Aurora Quality: 23%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: -14°. Meets requirement | Aurora Activity: 15%. Misses requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 94%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 6420m. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 21:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: -19°. Meets requirement | Aurora Activity: 15%. Misses requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 93%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 3160m. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 22:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: -23°. Meets requirement | Aurora Activity: 15%. Misses requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 89%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 5600m. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 23:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: -26°. Meets requirement | Aurora Activity: 21%. Misses requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 74%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 67780m. Meets requirement |
| Sun, Oct 11 | |||||
| Rule fails. 24:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: -28°. Meets requirement | Aurora Activity: 21%. Misses requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 65%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 68820m. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 01:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: -28°. Meets requirement | Aurora Activity: 21%. Misses requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 39%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 72440m. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 02:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: -27°. Meets requirement | Aurora Activity: 62%. Meets requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 85%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 75860m. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 03:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: -24°. Meets requirement | Aurora Activity: 62%. Meets requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 86%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 76140m. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 04:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: -20°. Meets requirement | Aurora Activity: 62%. Meets requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 76%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 75220m. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 05:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: -15°. Meets requirement | Aurora Activity: 62%. Meets requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 66%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 73300m. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 06:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: -9.6°. Meets requirement | Aurora Activity: 62%. Meets requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 80%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 67260m. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 07:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: -4.1°. Misses requirement | Aurora Activity: 62%. Meets requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 90%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 58900m. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 08:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: 1.5°. Misses requirement | Aurora Activity: 62%. Meets requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 94%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 11400m. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 09:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: 6°. Misses requirement | Aurora Activity: 62%. Meets requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 97%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 63300m. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 10:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: 9.9°. Misses requirement | Aurora Activity: 62%. Meets requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 95%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 73940m. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 11:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: 13°. Misses requirement | Aurora Activity: 62%. Meets requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 96%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 77240m. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 12:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: 14°. Misses requirement | Aurora Activity: 62%. Meets requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 91%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 77720m. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 13:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: 14°. Misses requirement | Aurora Activity: 62%. Meets requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 98%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 77680m. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 14:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: 13°. Misses requirement | Aurora Activity: 62%. Meets requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 99%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 78440m. Meets requirement |
How to read: colored cells show whether each predicate requirement is met; highlighted rows mean the full rule matched (an opportunity).
Supporting forecast inputs
Additional hourly values for interpreting the forecast and any derived scores. See the separate requirements breakdown for rule logic; missing values are unavailable.
Supporting inputs are unavailable for the displayed forecast period.
How this forecast is evaluated
See which weather signals PhotoWeather uses to identify Northern Lights conditions across Swedish Lapland. The requirements and hourly values above show how those signals apply at Riksgränsen.
Explore Northern Lights conditions across Swedish Lapland →Recorded match history
Completed PhotoWeather forecast matches recorded for this exact rule at Riksgränsen during the last 365 days.
Last 30 days
2
recorded matching windows · 57% average confidence
Last 90 days
3
recorded matching windows · 60% average confidence
Last 365 days
25
recorded matching windows · 67% average confidence
Most frequent recorded start hour
23:00 local time, shared by 5 of 25 matches recorded in the last 365 days.
Most represented month
January, with 10 of 25 matches recorded in the last 365 days.
These figures use completed PhotoWeather MatchEvent records from the previous 365 days only. They describe recorded forecast matches, not observations, climatological probability, or a guarantee of future conditions.
Create your own Northern Lights alerts
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How this forecast is made
Opportunities are threshold-based signals: PhotoWeather checks whether forecast conditions match the rules for a photography scenario. They are planning guidance, not guarantees. Forecasts can change as new model runs arrive, and confidence generally decreases farther into the forecast horizon, so recheck conditions before travelling.
The weather forecast foundation comes through Open-Meteo , which aggregates models from weather agencies. PhotoWeather applies condition-specific thresholds and derived calculations; not every condition uses every model or data input.
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