Rule
Northern Lights
Northern Lights Forecast for Kiruna, Swedish Lapland
Kiruna, Norrbotten, Sweden
Kiruna sits amid low mountains, boreal forest, and mine-shaped terrain, with open country beyond town providing dark skies and winter forms.
3 matching opportunities in the 14-day forecast.
Hourly forecast scores
Forecast valid from Sep 20, 2026, 5:00 AM UTC (one hour; not an observation)Kp IndexKp 2
Sun Elevation3.8°
Cloud Cover100%
Upcoming Opportunities
When all conditions match, PhotoWeather marks an opportunity window.
Times shown in Europe/Stockholm
First upcoming window
Excellent Chance of Aurora
Kiruna
Thu, Sep 24 · 22:00–02:00 · 4h window
Low confidence
40%
🌌Aurora Quality80.8-95%
Kp Index: Kp 5 (Minor Storm)
Sun Elevation: -18.0° (Astronomical night)
Cloud Cover: 27%
Excellent Chance of Aurora
Kiruna
Sun, Sep 27 · 24:00–05:00
🌌Aurora Quality:80.8-90.2%
Low
Good Chance of Aurora at Dawn
Kiruna
Sun, Sep 27 · 05:00–06:00
🌌Aurora Quality:79.7%
Low
72-hour requirements breakdown
When available, this detailed table covers only the stated 72-hour horizon (typically 72–168 hours, depending on available hourly data). Opportunity records above span the full 14-day forecast period, so this table does not explain that entire period. Times shown in Europe/Stockholm.
Most common blockers
Ranked across the 95-hour forecast horizon, not the full opportunity period.
- Aurora Quality100% of hours
- Aurora Activity100% of hours
- Total Cloud Coverage79% of hours
0matching hours in the displayed 72-hour forecast
AND logic: all conditions required
Meets requirement
Misses requirement
Time Europe/Stockholm | Aurora Quality ≥ 50.0% | Solar Elevation ≤ -8.0° | Aurora Activity ≥ 50.0% | Total Cloud Coverage ≤ 30.0% | Visibility ≥ 8000.0m |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, Sep 20 | |||||
| Rule fails. 07:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: 3.8°. Misses requirement | Aurora Activity: 18%. Misses requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 100%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 120m. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 08:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: 9.2°. Misses requirement | Aurora Activity: 18%. Misses requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 100%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 120m. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 09:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: 14°. Misses requirement | Aurora Activity: 18%. Misses requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 100%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 200m. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 10:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: 18°. Misses requirement | Aurora Activity: 6.9%. Misses requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 100%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 320m. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 11:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: 21°. Misses requirement | Aurora Activity: 4.2%. Misses requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 97%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 1620m. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 12:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: 23°. Misses requirement | Aurora Activity: 4.2%. Misses requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 81%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 2880m. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 13:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: 23°. Misses requirement | Aurora Activity: 4.2%. Misses requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 91%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 8300m. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 14:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: 21°. Misses requirement | Aurora Activity: 0.94%. Misses requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 98%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 8880m. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 15:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: 19°. Misses requirement | Aurora Activity: 0.94%. Misses requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 96%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 13880m. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 16:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: 14°. Misses requirement | Aurora Activity: 0.94%. Misses requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 98%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 22900m. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 17:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: 9.5°. Misses requirement | Aurora Activity: 4.2%. Misses requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 95%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 79720m. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 18:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: 4.1°. Misses requirement | Aurora Activity: 4.2%. Misses requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 97%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 79700m. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 19:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: -1.6°. Misses requirement | Aurora Activity: 4.2%. Misses requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 98%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 76960m. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 20:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: -7.2°. Misses requirement | Aurora Activity: 4.2%. Misses requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 99%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 76900m. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 21:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: -12°. Meets requirement | Aurora Activity: 4.2%. Misses requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 99%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 73000m. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 22:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: -16°. Meets requirement | Aurora Activity: 4.2%. Misses requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 99%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 72960m. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 23:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: -19°. Meets requirement | Aurora Activity: 6.9%. Misses requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 99%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 72920m. Meets requirement |
| Mon, Sep 21 | |||||
| Rule fails. 24:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: -21°. Meets requirement | Aurora Activity: 6.9%. Misses requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 99%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 70620m. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 01:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: -21°. Meets requirement | Aurora Activity: 6.9%. Misses requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 99%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 68000m. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 02:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: -20°. Meets requirement | Aurora Activity: 6.9%. Misses requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 96%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 68920m. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 03:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: -17°. Meets requirement | Aurora Activity: 6.9%. Misses requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 96%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 70380m. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 04:00 | Aurora Quality: 18%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: -13°. Meets requirement | Aurora Activity: 6.9%. Misses requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 91%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 69500m. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 05:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: -7.8°. Misses requirement | Aurora Activity: 10%. Misses requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 85%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 69420m. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 06:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: -2.2°. Misses requirement | Aurora Activity: 10%. Misses requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 62%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 69360m. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 07:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: 3.5°. Misses requirement | Aurora Activity: 10%. Misses requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 65%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 69300m. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 08:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: 8.8°. Misses requirement | Aurora Activity: 6.9%. Misses requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 50%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 72500m. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 09:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: 14°. Misses requirement | Aurora Activity: 6.9%. Misses requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 13%. Meets requirement | Visibility: 76340m. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 10:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: 18°. Misses requirement | Aurora Activity: 6.9%. Misses requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 13%. Meets requirement | Visibility: 79060m. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 11:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: 21°. Misses requirement | Aurora Activity: 4.2%. Misses requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 53%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 79040m. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 12:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: 23°. Misses requirement | Aurora Activity: 4.2%. Misses requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 60%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 22840m. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 13:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: 23°. Misses requirement | Aurora Activity: 4.2%. Misses requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 50%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 81180m. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 14:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: 21°. Misses requirement | Aurora Activity: 0.94%. Misses requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 45%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 31220m. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 15:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: 18°. Misses requirement | Aurora Activity: 0.94%. Misses requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 80%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 81160m. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 16:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: 14°. Misses requirement | Aurora Activity: 0.94%. Misses requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 78%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 81140m. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 17:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: 9.1°. Misses requirement | Aurora Activity: 4.2%. Misses requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 69%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 81140m. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 18:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: 3.7°. Misses requirement | Aurora Activity: 4.2%. Misses requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 62%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 78940m. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 19:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: -2°. Misses requirement | Aurora Activity: 4.2%. Misses requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 45%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 76220m. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 20:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: -7.6°. Misses requirement | Aurora Activity: 4.2%. Misses requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 42%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 76220m. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 21:00 | Aurora Quality: 32%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: -13°. Meets requirement | Aurora Activity: 4.2%. Misses requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 57%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 71620m. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 22:00 | Aurora Quality: 26%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: -17°. Meets requirement | Aurora Activity: 4.2%. Misses requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 77%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 71540m. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 23:00 | Aurora Quality: 33%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: -20°. Meets requirement | Aurora Activity: 6.9%. Misses requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 58%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 72380m. Meets requirement |
| Tue, Sep 22 | |||||
| Rule fails. 24:00 | Aurora Quality: 33%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: -21°. Meets requirement | Aurora Activity: 6.9%. Misses requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 25%. Meets requirement | Visibility: 60740m. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 01:00 | Aurora Quality: 33%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: -22°. Meets requirement | Aurora Activity: 6.9%. Misses requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 27%. Meets requirement | Visibility: 69680m. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 02:00 | Aurora Quality: 37%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: -20°. Meets requirement | Aurora Activity: 6.9%. Misses requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 48%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 68740m. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 03:00 | Aurora Quality: 33%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: -17°. Meets requirement | Aurora Activity: 6.9%. Misses requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 21%. Meets requirement | Visibility: 58060m. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 04:00 | Aurora Quality: 33%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: -13°. Meets requirement | Aurora Activity: 6.9%. Misses requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 22%. Meets requirement | Visibility: 63860m. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 05:00 | Aurora Quality: 19%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: -8.1°. Meets requirement | Aurora Activity: 4.2%. Misses requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 23%. Meets requirement | Visibility: 66900m. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 06:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: -2.6°. Misses requirement | Aurora Activity: 4.2%. Misses requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 23%. Meets requirement | Visibility: 64220m. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 07:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: 3.2°. Misses requirement | Aurora Activity: 4.2%. Misses requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 22%. Meets requirement | Visibility: 15600m. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 08:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: 8.5°. Misses requirement | Aurora Activity: 4.2%. Misses requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 31%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 1440m. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 09:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: 13°. Misses requirement | Aurora Activity: 4.2%. Misses requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 22%. Meets requirement | Visibility: 69200m. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 10:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: 18°. Misses requirement | Aurora Activity: 4.2%. Misses requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 8%. Meets requirement | Visibility: 76260m. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 11:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: 21°. Misses requirement | Aurora Activity: 4.2%. Misses requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 1%. Meets requirement | Visibility: 78940m. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 12:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: 22°. Misses requirement | Aurora Activity: 4.2%. Misses requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 1%. Meets requirement | Visibility: 78960m. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 13:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: 22°. Misses requirement | Aurora Activity: 4.2%. Misses requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 30%. Meets requirement | Visibility: 78480m. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 14:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: 21°. Misses requirement | Aurora Activity: 4.2%. Misses requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 61%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 81140m. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 15:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: 18°. Misses requirement | Aurora Activity: 4.2%. Misses requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 91%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 23480m. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 16:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: 14°. Misses requirement | Aurora Activity: 4.2%. Misses requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 100%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 21460m. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 17:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: 8.7°. Misses requirement | Aurora Activity: 4.2%. Misses requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 100%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 79000m. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 18:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: 3.3°. Misses requirement | Aurora Activity: 4.2%. Misses requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 100%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 16900m. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 19:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: -2.4°. Misses requirement | Aurora Activity: 4.2%. Misses requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 100%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 49340m. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 20:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: -8°. Meets requirement | Aurora Activity: 6.9%. Misses requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 100%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 76340m. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 21:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: -13°. Meets requirement | Aurora Activity: 6.9%. Misses requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 100%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 72120m. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 22:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: -17°. Meets requirement | Aurora Activity: 6.9%. Misses requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 100%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 76360m. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 23:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: -20°. Meets requirement | Aurora Activity: 6.9%. Misses requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 99%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 72600m. Meets requirement |
| Wed, Sep 23 | |||||
| Rule fails. 24:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: -22°. Meets requirement | Aurora Activity: 6.9%. Misses requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 95%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 64940m. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 01:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: -22°. Meets requirement | Aurora Activity: 6.9%. Misses requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 100%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 55700m. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 02:00 | Aurora Quality: 38%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: -20°. Meets requirement | Aurora Activity: 10%. Misses requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 17%. Meets requirement | Visibility: 60280m. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 03:00 | Aurora Quality: 23%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: -17°. Meets requirement | Aurora Activity: 10%. Misses requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 41%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 8280m. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 04:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: -13°. Meets requirement | Aurora Activity: 10%. Misses requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 96%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 1420m. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 05:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: -8.4°. Meets requirement | Aurora Activity: 10%. Misses requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 81%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 2800m. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 06:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: -2.9°. Misses requirement | Aurora Activity: 10%. Misses requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 84%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 1900m. Misses requirement |
How to read: colored cells show whether each predicate requirement is met; highlighted rows mean the full rule matched (an opportunity).
Supporting forecast inputs
Additional hourly values for interpreting the forecast and any derived scores. See the separate requirements breakdown for rule logic; missing values are unavailable.
Supporting inputs are unavailable for the displayed forecast period.
How this forecast is evaluated
See which weather signals PhotoWeather uses to identify Northern Lights conditions across Swedish Lapland. The requirements and hourly values above show how those signals apply at Kiruna.
Explore Northern Lights conditions across Swedish Lapland →Recorded match history
Completed PhotoWeather forecast matches recorded for this exact rule at Kiruna during the last 365 days.
Last 30 days
10
recorded matching windows · 66% average confidence
Last 90 days
10
recorded matching windows · 66% average confidence
Last 365 days
58
recorded matching windows · 67% average confidence
Most represented month
January, with 17 of 58 matches recorded in the last 365 days.
These figures use completed PhotoWeather MatchEvent records from the previous 365 days only. They describe recorded forecast matches, not observations, climatological probability, or a guarantee of future conditions.
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How this forecast is made
Opportunities are threshold-based signals: PhotoWeather checks whether forecast conditions match the rules for a photography scenario. They are planning guidance, not guarantees. Forecasts can change as new model runs arrive, and confidence generally decreases farther into the forecast horizon, so recheck conditions before travelling.
The weather forecast foundation comes through Open-Meteo , which aggregates models from weather agencies. PhotoWeather applies condition-specific thresholds and derived calculations; not every condition uses every model or data input.
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