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Rule Northern Lights

Northern Lights Forecast for Kiruna, Swedish Lapland

Kiruna, Norrbotten, Sweden

Kiruna sits amid low mountains, boreal forest, and mine-shaped terrain, with open country beyond town providing dark skies and winter forms.

3 matching opportunities in the 14-day forecast.

Hourly forecast scores

Forecast valid from Nov 4, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC (one hour; not an observation)
Kp IndexKp 2
Sun Elevation-5.4°
Cloud Cover9%

Upcoming Opportunities

When all conditions match, PhotoWeather marks an opportunity window.

Times shown in Europe/Stockholm
aurora weather icon
First upcoming window
Good Chance of Aurora
Kiruna
Tue, Nov 10 · 24:00–01:00 · 1h window
Low confidence
48%
🌌Aurora Quality78.4%
Kp Index: Kp 4 (Unsettled)
Sun Elevation: -38.9° (Astronomical night)
Cloud Cover: 21%
aurora weather icon
Excellent Chance of Aurora
Kiruna
Tue, Nov 17 · 06:00–07:00
🌌Aurora Quality:80.8%
Low
aurora weather icon
Good Chance of Aurora at Dawn
Kiruna
Tue, Nov 17 · 07:00–08:00
🌌Aurora Quality:71.1%
Low

72-hour requirements breakdown

When available, this detailed table covers only the stated 72-hour horizon (typically 72–168 hours, depending on available hourly data). Opportunity records above span the full 14-day forecast period, so this table does not explain that entire period. Times shown in Europe/Stockholm.

Requirements breakdown is temporarily unavailable or expired. This does not mean no opportunities.

Supporting forecast inputs

Additional hourly values for interpreting the forecast and any derived scores. See the separate requirements breakdown for rule logic; missing values are unavailable.

Supporting inputs are unavailable for the displayed forecast period.

How this forecast is evaluated

See which weather signals PhotoWeather uses to identify Northern Lights conditions across Swedish Lapland. The requirements and hourly values above show how those signals apply at Kiruna.

Explore Northern Lights conditions across Swedish Lapland →

Recorded match history

Completed PhotoWeather forecast matches recorded for this exact rule at Kiruna during the last 365 days.

Last 30 days
10
recorded matching windows · 70% average confidence
Last 90 days
20
recorded matching windows · 68% average confidence
Last 365 days
68
recorded matching windows · 67% average confidence
Most frequent recorded start hour

03:00 local time, shared by 7 of 68 matches recorded in the last 365 days.

Most represented month

January, with 17 of 68 matches recorded in the last 365 days.

These figures use completed PhotoWeather MatchEvent records from the previous 365 days only. They describe recorded forecast matches, not observations, climatological probability, or a guarantee of future conditions.

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How this forecast is made

Opportunities are threshold-based signals: PhotoWeather checks whether forecast conditions match the rules for a photography scenario. They are planning guidance, not guarantees. Forecasts can change as new model runs arrive, and confidence generally decreases farther into the forecast horizon, so recheck conditions before travelling.

The weather forecast foundation comes through Open-Meteo , which aggregates models from weather agencies. PhotoWeather applies condition-specific thresholds and derived calculations; not every condition uses every model or data input.

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