Rule
Morning Frost
Maggie Valley - Morning Frost - Smoky Mountains & Blue Ridge
Maggie Valley, North Carolina, United States
Frost crystals on calm, cold mornings near sunrise
Currently
Real-time conditionsSoil Temperature4.8°C
Dew Point-11.4°C (low dew point)
Wind Speed4.2m/s (calm conditions)
Cloud Cover95%
Upcoming Opportunities
When all conditions match, PhotoWeather marks an opportunity window.
Times shown in America/New_York
Next opportunity
Light Frost at Sunrise
Maggie Valley
Tue, Feb 24 · 07:00–08:00 · 1h window
Medium confidence
46%
❄️Frost Probability66%
Soil Temperature: -3.0°C
Dew Point: -13.4°C (low dew point)
Wind Speed: 1.2m/s (calm conditions)
Cloud Cover: 100%
Light Frost
Maggie Valley
Tue, Feb 24 · 08:00–08:38
❄️Frost Probability:69%
Medium
What this forecast looks for
Plain-language explanation from the ruleThis forecast predicts the first hard frost events that enhance the Smokies' autumn landscapes with crystalline textures. We track overnight temperatures, humidity, and elevation to identify when frost will coat mountain meadows, overlooks, and exposed vegetation with sparkling ice crystals at dawn.
The Smokies' elevation range means frost arrives at different times depending on altitude. Clingmans Dome and high overlooks can see frost as early as late September, while valleys may not freeze until late October or November. This staggered frost timing extends the season for frost photography and creates interesting elevation-based opportunities.
What makes Smoky Mountains frost photography exceptional:
- Mountain meadows - High-elevation grassy areas like Andrews Bald develop heavy frost coverage on clear nights
- Clingmans Dome conditions - At 6,643 feet, the highest point often experiences hoar frost creating alien landscapes
- Frozen waterfalls - Later season frost leads to ice formations on the Smokies' countless waterfalls
- Foliage combination - Early season frost can coincide with peak color, coating colorful leaves with ice crystals
Best frost photography requires clear, calm nights with temperatures dropping into the mid-20s Fahrenheit. High elevation locations experience frost most reliably, while valley locations need colder conditions. Arrive before dawn to catch frost plus first light—frost melts quickly after sunrise. Classic locations include Clingmans Dome observation tower, Grassy patches along Appalachian Trail, and roadside overlooks above 5,000 feet elevation.
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72-hour requirements breakdown
What passed or failed, hour by hourAND logic: all conditions required
Meets requirement
Misses requirement
Time America/New_York | Time Window Sunrise -45m to +90m | Frost Probability ≥ 60.0% | Wind Speed ≤ 1.5m/s |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, Feb 21 | |||
| 20:00 | ✕ | 0% | 1.3m/s |
| 21:00 | ✕ | 0% | 0.79m/s |
| 22:00 | ✕ | 0% | 1.3m/s |
| 23:00 | ✕ | 0% | 2m/s |
| Sun, Feb 22 | |||
| 24:00 | ✕ | 0% | 3m/s |
| 01:00 | ✕ | 0% | 2.4m/s |
| 02:00 | ✕ | 0% | 2.3m/s |
| 03:00 | ✕ | 0% | 2.5m/s |
| 04:00 | ✕ | 0% | 2.6m/s |
| 05:00 | ✕ | 1.4% | 2.9m/s |
| 06:00 | ✓ | 1.4% | 2.9m/s |
| 07:00 | ✓ | 1.4% | 2.9m/s |
| 08:00 | ✓ | 1.5% | 3m/s |
| 09:00 | ✕ | 2.5% | 3.4m/s |
| 10:00 | ✕ | 39% | 3.4m/s |
| 11:00 | ✕ | 44% | 4.7m/s |
| 12:00 | ✕ | 48% | 5.4m/s |
| 13:00 | ✕ | 32% | 6.8m/s |
| 14:00 | ✕ | 31% | 7.2m/s |
| 15:00 | ✕ | 26% | 7.4m/s |
| 16:00 | ✕ | 22% | 6.9m/s |
| 17:00 | ✕ | 23% | 6.3m/s |
| 18:00 | ✕ | 21% | 4.3m/s |
| 19:00 | ✕ | 15% | 3.9m/s |
| 20:00 | ✕ | 23% | 4m/s |
| 21:00 | ✕ | 23% | 4.2m/s |
| 22:00 | ✕ | 23% | 4.1m/s |
| 23:00 | ✕ | 23% | 4m/s |
| Mon, Feb 23 | |||
| 24:00 | ✕ | 23% | 3.8m/s |
| 01:00 | ✕ | 23% | 3.6m/s |
| 02:00 | ✕ | 23% | 3.5m/s |
| 03:00 | ✕ | 25% | 3.4m/s |
| 04:00 | ✕ | 25% | 3.2m/s |
| 05:00 | ✕ | 32% | 3.2m/s |
| 06:00 | ✓ | 48% | 3.3m/s |
| 07:00 | ✓ | 48% | 3.3m/s |
| 08:00 | ✓ | 61% | 3.6m/s |
| 09:00 | ✕ | 68% | 3.9m/s |
| 10:00 | ✕ | 65% | 4.1m/s |
| 11:00 | ✕ | 69% | 4m/s |
| 12:00 | ✕ | 69% | 4m/s |
| 13:00 | ✕ | 69% | 4m/s |
| 14:00 | ✕ | 67% | 4.3m/s |
| 15:00 | ✕ | 69% | 4.2m/s |
| 16:00 | ✕ | 64% | 4.1m/s |
| 17:00 | ✕ | 67% | 3.7m/s |
| 18:00 | ✕ | 63% | 3.1m/s |
| 19:00 | ✕ | 54% | 2.7m/s |
| 20:00 | ✕ | 58% | 2.8m/s |
| 21:00 | ✕ | 58% | 2.7m/s |
| 22:00 | ✕ | 58% | 2.6m/s |
| 23:00 | ✕ | 61% | 2.2m/s |
| Tue, Feb 24 | |||
| 24:00 | ✕ | 63% | 1.6m/s |
| 01:00 | ✕ | 57% | 1.5m/s |
| 02:00 | ✕ | 57% | 1.5m/s |
| 03:00 | ✕ | 60% | 1.5m/s |
| 04:00 | ✕ | 69% | 1.6m/s |
| 05:00 | ✕ | 73% | 1.4m/s |
| 06:00 | ✓ | 58% | 1.3m/s |
| 07:00 | ✓ | 66% | 1.2m/s |
| 08:00 | ✓ | 69% | 1.1m/s |
| 09:00 | ✕ | 78% | 1.4m/s |
| 10:00 | ✕ | 76% | 1.2m/s |
| 11:00 | ✕ | 70% | 1.1m/s |
| 12:00 | ✕ | 70% | 1.5m/s |
| 13:00 | ✕ | 65% | 1.9m/s |
| 14:00 | ✕ | 76% | 2.2m/s |
| 15:00 | ✕ | 67% | 2.6m/s |
| 16:00 | ✕ | 61% | 3.1m/s |
| 17:00 | ✕ | 67% | 2.7m/s |
| 18:00 | ✕ | 72% | 2.1m/s |
| 19:00 | ✕ | 74% | 2.4m/s |
| 20:00 | ✕ | 74% | 2.8m/s |
| 21:00 | ✕ | 72% | 3m/s |
| 22:00 | ✕ | 72% | 3.6m/s |
| 23:00 | ✕ | 72% | 3.8m/s |
| Wed, Feb 25 | |||
| 24:00 | ✕ | 72% | 3.8m/s |
| 01:00 | ✕ | 72% | 4m/s |
| 02:00 | ✕ | 72% | 3.9m/s |
| 03:00 | ✕ | 73% | 3.8m/s |
| 04:00 | ✕ | 72% | 3.7m/s |
| 05:00 | ✕ | 69% | 3.6m/s |
| 06:00 | ✓ | 68% | 3.5m/s |
| 07:00 | ✓ | 68% | 3.4m/s |
| 08:00 | ✓ | 68% | 3.4m/s |
| 09:00 | ✕ | 68% | 3.3m/s |
| 10:00 | ✕ | 52% | 3.2m/s |
| 11:00 | ✕ | 52% | 3m/s |
| 12:00 | ✕ | 51% | 2.7m/s |
| 13:00 | ✕ | 47% | 2.5m/s |
| 14:00 | ✕ | 47% | 2.4m/s |
| 15:00 | ✕ | 37% | 2.2m/s |
| 16:00 | ✕ | 37% | 2.1m/s |
| 17:00 | ✕ | 37% | 2.1m/s |
| 18:00 | ✕ | 37% | 2.1m/s |
How to read: colored cells show whether each predicate requirement is met; highlighted rows mean the full rule matched (an opportunity).
What does Frost Probability mean?
Inputs that drive the scoreThis derived score summarizes multiple raw weather signals. The table below shows the supporting inputs hour by hour, so you can see what's pushing the score up or down.
| Time America/New_York | Dew Point °C | Surface Temperature °C | Temperature °C | Time Window | Total Cloud Coverage % | Vapor Pressure Deficit kPa |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, Feb 22
Sunrise 07:09
Sunset 18:22 | ||||||
| 21:00 ☾ | -11°C | 4.8°C | -7.8°C | - | 95% | 0.08kPa |
| 22:00 ☾ | -12°C | 4.8°C | -8.3°C | - | 87% | 0.09kPa |
| 23:00 ☾ | -12°C | 4.8°C | -8.7°C | - | 95% | 0.08kPa |
| Mon, Feb 23
Sunrise 07:09
Sunset 18:22 | ||||||
| 24:00 ☾ | -13°C | 4.8°C | -8.8°C | - | 100% | 0.08kPa |
| 01:00 ☾ | -13°C | 4.7°C | -9.1°C | - | 100% | 0.09kPa |
| 02:00 ☾ | -13°C | 4.2°C | -9.3°C | - | 100% | 0.09kPa |
| 03:00 ☾ | -14°C | 3.6°C | -9.4°C | - | 99% | 0.09kPa |
| 04:00 ☾ | -14°C | 3°C | -9.5°C | - | 96% | 0.09kPa |
| 05:00 ☾ | -14°C | 2.5°C | -9.7°C | - | 86% | 0.09kPa |
| 06:00 ☾ | -14°C | 1.9°C | -9.8°C | - | 70% | 0.09kPa |
| 07:00 ☾ | -14°C | 1.4°C | -9.9°C | - | 60% | 0.08kPa |
| 08:00 | -14°C | 0.79°C | -9.6°C | - | 55% | 0.09kPa |
| 09:00 | -14°C | 0.34°C | -8.1°C | - | 55% | 0.13kPa |
| 10:00 | -14°C | 0.14°C | -6.5°C | - | 62% | 0.17kPa |
| 11:00 | -14°C | 0.12°C | -5°C | - | 82% | 0.21kPa |
| 12:00 | -13°C | 0.12°C | -4.1°C | - | 97% | 0.23kPa |
| 13:00 | -13°C | 0.12°C | -3.8°C | - | 99% | 0.23kPa |
| 14:00 | -12°C | 0.12°C | -3.8°C | - | 98% | 0.22kPa |
| 15:00 | -12°C | 0.12°C | -4.1°C | - | 97% | 0.21kPa |
| 16:00 | -12°C | 0.09°C | -4.7°C | - | 96% | 0.19kPa |
| 17:00 | -12°C | -0.008°C | -5.5°C | - | 99% | 0.16kPa |
| 18:00 | -11°C | -0.08°C | -6.7°C | - | 89% | 0.12kPa |
| 19:00 ☾ | -11°C | -0.08°C | -7.8°C | - | 85% | 0.07kPa |
| 20:00 ☾ | -11°C | -0.15°C | -8.1°C | - | 60% | 0.06kPa |
| 21:00 ☾ | -11°C | -0.27°C | -8.4°C | - | 53% | 0.05kPa |
| 22:00 ☾ | -11°C | -0.5°C | -8.8°C | - | 42% | 0.05kPa |
| 23:00 ☾ | -11°C | -0.76°C | -9.2°C | - | 27% | 0.04kPa |
| Tue, Feb 24
Sunrise 07:08
Sunset 18:22 | ||||||
| 24:00 ☾ | -11°C | -1°C | -9.6°C | - | 29% | 0.03kPa |
| 01:00 ☾ | -11°C | -1.3°C | -9.9°C | - | 60% | 0.03kPa |
| 02:00 ☾ | -12°C | -1.6°C | -10°C | - | 62% | 0.03kPa |
| 03:00 ☾ | -12°C | -1.9°C | -11°C | - | 51% | 0.03kPa |
| 04:00 ☾ | -12°C | -2.2°C | -11°C | - | 20% | 0.03kPa |
| 05:00 ☾ | -13°C | -2.5°C | -11°C | - | 9% | 0.03kPa |
| 06:00 ☾ | -13°C | -2.8°C | -11°C | - | 100% | 0.04kPa |
| 07:00 ☾ | -13°C | -3°C | -10°C | - | 100% | 0.07kPa |
| 08:00 | -14°C | -3.3°C | -8.4°C | - | 100% | 0.12kPa |
| 09:00 | -15°C | -3.3°C | -5.5°C | - | 100% | 0.22kPa |
| 10:00 | -16°C | -3.3°C | -2.2°C | - | 100% | 0.34kPa |
| 11:00 | -15°C | -3.3°C | 1.1°C | - | 100% | 0.47kPa |
| 12:00 | -14°C | -3.1°C | 3.3°C | - | 100% | 0.57kPa |
| 13:00 | -13°C | -2.5°C | 4.5°C | - | 100% | 0.62kPa |
| 14:00 | -12°C | -2.1°C | 4.9°C | - | 12% | 0.63kPa |
| 15:00 | -12°C | -1.7°C | 5.4°C | - | 54% | 0.66kPa |
| 16:00 | -13°C | -1.5°C | 4.8°C | - | 87% | 0.63kPa |
| 17:00 | -12°C | -1.2°C | 3.8°C | - | 71% | 0.55kPa |
| 18:00 | -10°C | -0.97°C | 0.22°C | - | 100% | 0.35kPa |
| 19:00 ☾ | -11°C | -0.9°C | -1.5°C | - | 100% | 0.27kPa |
| 20:00 ☾ | -10°C | -0.84°C | -1.4°C | - | 100% | 0.27kPa |
| 21:00 ☾ | -10°C | -0.79°C | -1.7°C | - | 100% | 0.25kPa |
| 22:00 ☾ | -11°C | -0.73°C | -1.6°C | - | 100% | 0.28kPa |
| 23:00 ☾ | -11°C | -0.67°C | -1.9°C | - | 100% | 0.27kPa |
| Wed, Feb 25
Sunrise 07:07
Sunset 18:23 | ||||||
| 24:00 ☾ | -11°C | -0.64°C | -2.2°C | - | 100% | 0.25kPa |
| 01:00 ☾ | -10°C | -0.61°C | -1.9°C | - | 100% | 0.25kPa |
| 02:00 ☾ | -7°C | -0.56°C | 0.5°C | - | 86% | 0.27kPa |
| 03:00 ☾ | -3.8°C | -0.51°C | 2.9°C | - | 73% | 0.29kPa |
| 04:00 ☾ | -0.7°C | -0.46°C | 5.3°C | - | 59% | 0.31kPa |
| 05:00 ☾ | 0.3°C | -0.46°C | 5.8°C | - | 73% | 0.3kPa |
| 06:00 ☾ | 1.3°C | -0.46°C | 6.4°C | - | 86% | 0.29kPa |
| 07:00 ☾ | 2.2°C | -0.46°C | 6.9°C | - | 100% | 0.28kPa |
| 08:00 | 2.7°C | -0.26°C | 6.8°C | - | 100% | 0.24kPa |
| 09:00 | 3.2°C | -0.07°C | 6.6°C | - | 100% | 0.21kPa |
| 10:00 | 3.7°C | 0.13°C | 6.5°C | - | 100% | 0.17kPa |
| 11:00 | 3.4°C | 0.34°C | 5.3°C | - | 100% | 0.11kPa |
| 12:00 | 3.1°C | 0.55°C | 4.2°C | - | 100% | 0.06kPa |
| 13:00 | 2.8°C | 0.76°C | 3°C | - | 100% | 0.01kPa |
| 14:00 | 3°C | 0.96°C | 3.2°C | - | 100% | 0.01kPa |
| 15:00 | 3.3°C | 1.2°C | 3.4°C | - | 100% | 0.01kPa |
| 16:00 | 3.5°C | 1.4°C | 3.6°C | - | 100% | 0.01kPa |
| 17:00 | 3.9°C | 1.6°C | 4°C | - | 100% | 0.01kPa |
| 18:00 | 4.2°C | 1.8°C | 4.4°C | - | 100% | 0.01kPa |
| 19:00 ☾ | 4.6°C | 2°C | 4.8°C | - | 100% | 0.01kPa |
| 20:00 ☾ | 4.9°C | 2.3°C | 5.1°C | - | 100% | 0.01kPa |
How to read: these inputs help produce the derived score; they are not requirements by themselves.
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