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No opportunity windows are predicted in the next 10 days. Conditions can change quickly, so check back for updates.

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Rule Morning Frost

Maggie Valley - Morning Frost - Smoky Mountains & Blue Ridge

Q: What conditions does Morning Frost look for?

Time Window: Sunrise -45m to +90m. Frost Probability: ≥ 60.0%. Wind Speed: ≤ 1.5m/s

Maggie Valley, North Carolina, United States

Frost crystals on calm, cold mornings near sunrise

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Here’s what usually blocks matches

No Morning Frost opportunities in the next 14 days

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Rule requirements (key thresholds)

Time Window · Sunrise -45m to +90m Frost Probability · ≥ 60.0% Wind Speed · ≤ 1.5m/s

Tip: Scroll down to the 72-hour table to see exactly which condition fails hour by hour.

Most common blockers (next 72 hours)

Frost Probability 100% failing

Time Window 88% failing

Wind Speed 25% failing

Currently

Real-time conditions

Frost Probability

Soil Temperature7.4°C

Dew Point-2.9°C (low dew point)

Wind Speed1.5m/s (calm conditions)

Cloud Cover100%

Upcoming Opportunities

When all conditions match, PhotoWeather marks an opportunity window.

Times shown in America/New_York

No opportunities in the next 10 days

See the blocker timeline below to understand which conditions are preventing matches.

What this forecast looks for

Plain-language explanation from the rule

This forecast predicts the first hard frost events that enhance the Smokies' autumn landscapes with crystalline textures. We track overnight temperatures, humidity, and elevation to identify when frost will coat mountain meadows, overlooks, and exposed vegetation with sparkling ice crystals at dawn.

The Smokies' elevation range means frost arrives at different times depending on altitude. Clingmans Dome and high overlooks can see frost as early as late September, while valleys may not freeze until late October or November. This staggered frost timing extends the season for frost photography and creates interesting elevation-based opportunities.

What makes Smoky Mountains frost photography exceptional:

Mountain meadows - High-elevation grassy areas like Andrews Bald develop heavy frost coverage on clear nights
Clingmans Dome conditions - At 6,643 feet, the highest point often experiences hoar frost creating alien landscapes
Frozen waterfalls - Later season frost leads to ice formations on the Smokies' countless waterfalls
Foliage combination - Early season frost can coincide with peak color, coating colorful leaves with ice crystals

Best frost photography requires clear, calm nights with temperatures dropping into the mid-20s Fahrenheit. High elevation locations experience frost most reliably, while valley locations need colder conditions. Arrive before dawn to catch frost plus first light—frost melts quickly after sunrise. Classic locations include Clingmans Dome observation tower, Grassy patches along Appalachian Trail, and roadside overlooks above 5,000 feet elevation.

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72-hour requirements breakdown

What passed or failed, hour by hour

0matching hours in the next 95 hours

AND logic: all conditions required

Meets requirement

Misses requirement

Time America/New_York	Time Window Sunrise -45m to +90m	Frost Probability ≥ 60.0%	Wind Speed ≤ 1.5m/s
Wed, Apr 8
03:00	✕	0%	1.6m/s
04:00	✕	0%	1.6m/s
05:00	✕	4.5%	1.7m/s
06:00	✓	4.2%	1.6m/s
07:00	✓	3.6%	1.7m/s
08:00	✓	3.8%	1.6m/s
09:00	✕	3.6%	2m/s
10:00	✕	3.4%	2m/s
11:00	✕	3.4%	2m/s
12:00	✕	2.9%	2.2m/s
13:00	✕	0%	2.3m/s
14:00	✕	0%	2.3m/s
15:00	✕	0%	2.8m/s
16:00	✕	0%	2.8m/s
17:00	✕	0%	2.6m/s
18:00	✕	0%	2.5m/s
19:00	✕	0%	2.1m/s
20:00	✕	0%	1.8m/s
21:00	✕	0%	1.7m/s
22:00	✕	0%	1.7m/s
23:00	✕	0%	1.6m/s
Thu, Apr 9
24:00	✕	0%	1.7m/s
01:00	✕	0%	1.6m/s
02:00	✕	0%	1.5m/s
03:00	✕	2.9%	1.6m/s
04:00	✕	3.4%	1.5m/s
05:00	✕	4.9%	1.5m/s
06:00	✓	4%	1.4m/s
07:00	✓	2.9%	1.3m/s
08:00	✓	3.8%	0.93m/s
09:00	✕	3.6%	0.97m/s
10:00	✕	3.1%	1.1m/s
11:00	✕	3%	1.2m/s
12:00	✕	2.4%	1.3m/s
13:00	✕	0%	1.5m/s
14:00	✕	0%	1.8m/s
15:00	✕	0%	2.2m/s
16:00	✕	0%	2.4m/s
17:00	✕	0%	2.4m/s
18:00	✕	0%	2.5m/s
19:00	✕	0%	2.2m/s
20:00	✕	0%	1.7m/s
21:00	✕	0%	1.5m/s
22:00	✕	0%	1.4m/s
23:00	✕	0%	1.4m/s
Fri, Apr 10
24:00	✕	0%	1.3m/s
01:00	✕	0%	1.3m/s
02:00	✕	0%	1.3m/s
03:00	✕	0%	1.4m/s
04:00	✕	0%	1.2m/s
05:00	✕	0%	1.3m/s
06:00	✓	4.9%	1.3m/s
07:00	✓	5%	1.3m/s
08:00	✓	5%	1.3m/s
09:00	✕	4.6%	0.94m/s
10:00	✕	4.6%	0.71m/s
11:00	✕	0%	0.66m/s
12:00	✕	0%	0.75m/s
13:00	✕	0%	0.95m/s
14:00	✕	0%	1.2m/s
15:00	✕	0%	0.97m/s
16:00	✕	0%	0.69m/s
17:00	✕	0%	0.44m/s
18:00	✕	0%	0.75m/s
19:00	✕	0%	1m/s
20:00	✕	0%	1m/s
21:00	✕	0%	0.61m/s
22:00	✕	0%	0.78m/s
23:00	✕	0%	0.81m/s
Sat, Apr 11
24:00	✕	0%	0.9m/s
01:00	✕	0%	1.1m/s
02:00	✕	0%	1.2m/s
03:00	✕	0%	1.1m/s
04:00	✕	0%	1m/s
05:00	✕	0%	1m/s
06:00	✓	0%	0.99m/s
07:00	✓	0%	0.96m/s
08:00	✓	0%	0.7m/s
09:00	✕	0%	0.91m/s
10:00	✕	0%	1.1m/s
11:00	✕	0%	1.3m/s
12:00	✕	0%	0.96m/s
13:00	✕	0%	0.61m/s
14:00	✕	0%	0.26m/s
15:00	✕	0%	0.74m/s
16:00	✕	0%	1.2m/s
17:00	✕	0%	1.7m/s
18:00	✕	0%	1.7m/s
19:00	✕	0%	1.8m/s
20:00	✕	0%	1.9m/s
21:00	✕	0%	1.8m/s
22:00	✕	0%	1.8m/s
23:00	✕	0%	1.8m/s
Sun, Apr 12
24:00	✕	0%	1.7m/s
01:00	✕	0%	1.7m/s

How to read: colored cells show whether each predicate requirement is met; highlighted rows mean the full rule matched (an opportunity).

What does Frost Probability mean?

Inputs that drive the score

This derived score summarizes multiple raw weather signals. The table below shows the supporting inputs hour by hour, so you can see what's pushing the score up or down.

Time America/New_York	Dew Point °C	Surface Temperature °C	Temperature °C	Time Window	Total Cloud Coverage %	Vapor Pressure Deficit kPa
Thu, Apr 9 Sunrise 07:07 Sunset 20:00
04:00	-2.9°C	7.4°C	2.1°C	-	100%	0.22kPa
05:00	-3.2°C	7.1°C	1.9°C	-	10%	0.22kPa
06:00	-3.8°C	6.7°C	0.92°C	-	16%	0.19kPa
07:00	-4.2°C	6.5°C	0.65°C	-	100%	0.19kPa
08:00	-4°C	6.1°C	2.7°C	-	100%	0.29kPa
09:00	-3.9°C	6.2°C	5.6°C	-	100%	0.45kPa
10:00	-3.1°C	6.5°C	8.7°C	-	100%	0.64kPa
11:00	-2.2°C	6.9°C	12°C	-	66%	0.86kPa
12:00	-1.4°C	7.5°C	14°C	-	63%	1.1kPa
13:00	-0.9°C	8.2°C	16°C	-	97%	1.2kPa
14:00	-0.6°C	8.9°C	17°C	-	98%	1.3kPa
15:00	-0.4°C	9.5°C	17°C	-	100%	1.3kPa
16:00	-0.1°C	10°C	17°C	-	94%	1.3kPa
17:00	0.2°C	10°C	16°C	-	96%	1.2kPa
18:00	0.8°C	11°C	15°C	-	25%	1.1kPa
19:00	2.7°C	11°C	13°C	-	1%	0.74kPa
20:00 ☾	1.6°C	11°C	8.1°C	-	0%	0.39kPa
21:00 ☾	0.8°C	11°C	6.6°C	-	0%	0.32kPa
22:00 ☾	0.4°C	10°C	5.7°C	-	0%	0.29kPa
23:00 ☾	0°C	9.9°C	5.2°C	-	0%	0.27kPa
Fri, Apr 10 Sunrise 07:06 Sunset 20:00
24:00 ☾	-0.3°C	9.5°C	4.9°C	-	0%	0.26kPa
01:00 ☾	-0.5°C	9.2°C	4.7°C	-	0%	0.26kPa
02:00 ☾	-0.8°C	8.9°C	4.5°C	-	0%	0.26kPa
03:00 ☾	-1.1°C	8.6°C	4.4°C	-	0%	0.27kPa
04:00 ☾	-1.5°C	8.4°C	4.1°C	-	0%	0.27kPa
05:00 ☾	-1.7°C	8.1°C	4.1°C	-	0%	0.28kPa
06:00 ☾	-2°C	7.8°C	4°C	-	0%	0.28kPa
07:00 ☾	-2.1°C	7.6°C	3.9°C	-	0%	0.29kPa
08:00 ☾	-0.9°C	7.5°C	6°C	-	0%	0.37kPa
09:00 ☾	0.2°C	7.6°C	10°C	-	0%	0.63kPa
10:00 ☾	1.3°C	8°C	14°C	-	0%	0.88kPa
11:00 ☾	2.1°C	8.6°C	16°C	-	2%	1.1kPa
12:00 ☾	2.2°C	9.4°C	18°C	-	2%	1.3kPa
13:00 ☾	2.1°C	10°C	19°C	-	0%	1.5kPa
14:00 ☾	2.2°C	11°C	20°C	-	1%	1.6kPa
15:00 ☾	2.2°C	12°C	20°C	-	4%	1.7kPa
16:00 ☾	2.3°C	12°C	20°C	-	5%	1.7kPa
17:00 ☾	2.5°C	13°C	20°C	-	5%	1.6kPa
18:00 ☾	3.2°C	13°C	19°C	-	4%	1.4kPa
19:00 ☾	6.9°C	13°C	16°C	-	3%	0.84kPa
20:00 ☾	6.4°C	13°C	11°C	-	1%	0.37kPa
21:00 ☾	6.3°C	13°C	9.5°C	-	1%	0.23kPa
22:00 ☾	6.1°C	13°C	8.9°C	-	5%	0.19kPa
23:00 ☾	6°C	12°C	8.4°C	-	10%	0.17kPa
Sat, Apr 11 Sunrise 07:05 Sunset 20:01
24:00 ☾	5.9°C	12°C	8.3°C	-	5%	0.16kPa
01:00 ☾	5.6°C	12°C	8.1°C	-	5%	0.17kPa
02:00 ☾	5.2°C	12°C	8.1°C	-	5%	0.19kPa
03:00 ☾	4.9°C	11°C	7.8°C	-	5%	0.19kPa
04:00 ☾	4.7°C	11°C	7.5°C	-	2%	0.18kPa
05:00 ☾	4.5°C	11°C	7.4°C	-	2%	0.19kPa
06:00 ☾	4°C	10°C	7.1°C	-	5%	0.19kPa
07:00 ☾	3.3°C	10°C	6.8°C	-	0%	0.22kPa
08:00 ☾	3.4°C	10°C	8.6°C	-	97%	0.33kPa
09:00 ☾	4.4°C	11°C	13°C	-	83%	0.64kPa
10:00 ☾	4.6°C	13°C	17°C	-	70%	1.1kPa
11:00 ☾	3.2°C	14°C	21°C	-	56%	1.7kPa
12:00 ☾	5.7°C	14°C	19°C	-	39%	1.2kPa
13:00 ☾	6.9°C	15°C	16°C	-	23%	0.83kPa
14:00 ☾	7.4°C	15°C	14°C	-	6%	0.52kPa
15:00 ☾	6.8°C	14°C	13°C	-	6%	0.47kPa
16:00 ☾	6.2°C	14°C	12°C	-	5%	0.43kPa
17:00 ☾	5.6°C	14°C	11°C	-	5%	0.39kPa
18:00 ☾	5.2°C	14°C	11°C	-	16%	0.4kPa
19:00 ☾	4.7°C	13°C	10°C	-	28%	0.4kPa
20:00 ☾	4.2°C	13°C	10°C	-	39%	0.41kPa
21:00 ☾	3.9°C	13°C	9.9°C	-	33%	0.41kPa
22:00 ☾	3.7°C	13°C	9.6°C	-	26%	0.4kPa
23:00 ☾	3.4°C	12°C	9.3°C	-	19%	0.4kPa
Sun, Apr 12 Sunrise 07:03 Sunset 20:02
24:00 ☾	3.9°C	12°C	9.6°C	-	15%	0.39kPa
01:00 ☾	4.4°C	12°C	9.9°C	-	10%	0.38kPa
02:00 ☾	5°C	12°C	10°C	-	6%	0.38kPa
03:00 ☾	5.2°C	12°C	13°C	-	37%	0.59kPa

How to read: these inputs help produce the derived score; they are not requirements by themselves.

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