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No opportunity windows are predicted in the next 10 days. Conditions can change quickly, so check back for updates.

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Rule Morning Frost

Gatlinburg - Morning Frost - Smoky Mountains & Blue Ridge

Q: What conditions does Morning Frost look for?

Time Window: Sunrise -45m to +90m. Frost Probability: ≥ 60.0%. Wind Speed: ≤ 1.5m/s

Gatlinburg, Tennessee, United States

Frost crystals on calm, cold mornings near sunrise

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Here’s what usually blocks matches

No Morning Frost opportunities in the next 14 days

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Rule requirements (key thresholds)

Time Window · Sunrise -45m to +90m Frost Probability · ≥ 60.0% Wind Speed · ≤ 1.5m/s

Tip: Scroll down to the 72-hour table to see exactly which condition fails hour by hour.

Most common blockers (next 72 hours)

Frost Probability 100% failing

Time Window 88% failing

Wind Speed 61% failing

Currently

Real-time conditions

Frost Probability

Soil Temperature10.6°C

Dew Point1.4°C (low dew point)

Wind Speed2.0m/s (calm conditions)

Cloud Cover96%

Upcoming Opportunities

When all conditions match, PhotoWeather marks an opportunity window.

Times shown in America/New_York

No opportunities in the next 10 days

See the blocker timeline below to understand which conditions are preventing matches.

What this forecast looks for

Plain-language explanation from the rule

This forecast predicts the first hard frost events that enhance the Smokies' autumn landscapes with crystalline textures. We track overnight temperatures, humidity, and elevation to identify when frost will coat mountain meadows, overlooks, and exposed vegetation with sparkling ice crystals at dawn.

The Smokies' elevation range means frost arrives at different times depending on altitude. Clingmans Dome and high overlooks can see frost as early as late September, while valleys may not freeze until late October or November. This staggered frost timing extends the season for frost photography and creates interesting elevation-based opportunities.

What makes Smoky Mountains frost photography exceptional:

Mountain meadows - High-elevation grassy areas like Andrews Bald develop heavy frost coverage on clear nights
Clingmans Dome conditions - At 6,643 feet, the highest point often experiences hoar frost creating alien landscapes
Frozen waterfalls - Later season frost leads to ice formations on the Smokies' countless waterfalls
Foliage combination - Early season frost can coincide with peak color, coating colorful leaves with ice crystals

Best frost photography requires clear, calm nights with temperatures dropping into the mid-20s Fahrenheit. High elevation locations experience frost most reliably, while valley locations need colder conditions. Arrive before dawn to catch frost plus first light—frost melts quickly after sunrise. Classic locations include Clingmans Dome observation tower, Grassy patches along Appalachian Trail, and roadside overlooks above 5,000 feet elevation.

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72-hour requirements breakdown

What passed or failed, hour by hour

0matching hours in the next 95 hours

AND logic: all conditions required

Meets requirement

Misses requirement

Time America/New_York	Time Window Sunrise -45m to +90m	Frost Probability ≥ 60.0%	Wind Speed ≤ 1.5m/s
Wed, Apr 8
03:00	✕	0%	1.5m/s
04:00	✕	0%	1.9m/s
05:00	✕	0%	1.9m/s
06:00	✓	0%	1.7m/s
07:00	✓	0%	1.8m/s
08:00	✓	0%	1.7m/s
09:00	✕	0%	1.4m/s
10:00	✕	0%	0.89m/s
11:00	✕	0%	0.23m/s
12:00	✕	0%	0.7m/s
13:00	✕	0%	1.3m/s
14:00	✕	0%	1.7m/s
15:00	✕	0%	2.4m/s
16:00	✕	0%	2.9m/s
17:00	✕	0%	2.5m/s
18:00	✕	0%	2m/s
19:00	✕	0%	0.98m/s
20:00	✕	0%	0.8m/s
21:00	✕	0%	1.9m/s
22:00	✕	0%	2.3m/s
23:00	✕	0%	2.6m/s
Thu, Apr 9
24:00	✕	0%	2.6m/s
01:00	✕	0%	2.5m/s
02:00	✕	0%	2.4m/s
03:00	✕	0%	2.1m/s
04:00	✕	0%	2m/s
05:00	✕	0%	1.9m/s
06:00	✓	0%	1.9m/s
07:00	✓	0%	1.8m/s
08:00	✓	0%	1.5m/s
09:00	✕	0%	0.58m/s
10:00	✕	0%	0.74m/s
11:00	✕	0%	1.2m/s
12:00	✕	0%	1.6m/s
13:00	✕	0%	2m/s
14:00	✕	0%	2.2m/s
15:00	✕	0%	2.3m/s
16:00	✕	0%	2.4m/s
17:00	✕	0%	2.4m/s
18:00	✕	0%	2.3m/s
19:00	✕	0%	1.5m/s
20:00	✕	0%	0.78m/s
21:00	✕	0%	2m/s
22:00	✕	0%	2.2m/s
23:00	✕	0%	2.3m/s
Fri, Apr 10
24:00	✕	0%	2.3m/s
01:00	✕	0%	2.3m/s
02:00	✕	0%	2.4m/s
03:00	✕	0%	2.1m/s
04:00	✕	0%	2.2m/s
05:00	✕	0%	1.8m/s
06:00	✓	0%	1.8m/s
07:00	✓	0%	1.7m/s
08:00	✓	0%	1.1m/s
09:00	✕	0%	0.62m/s
10:00	✕	0%	0.8m/s
11:00	✕	0%	1.3m/s
12:00	✕	0%	2m/s
13:00	✕	0%	2.5m/s
14:00	✕	0%	2.5m/s
15:00	✕	0%	2.8m/s
16:00	✕	0%	2.7m/s
17:00	✕	0%	2.9m/s
18:00	✕	0%	2.4m/s
19:00	✕	0%	1.4m/s
20:00	✕	0%	0.81m/s
21:00	✕	0%	1.9m/s
22:00	✕	0%	2m/s
23:00	✕	0%	2.3m/s
Sat, Apr 11
24:00	✕	0%	2.3m/s
01:00	✕	0%	2m/s
02:00	✕	0%	1.9m/s
03:00	✕	0%	1.6m/s
04:00	✕	0%	1.8m/s
05:00	✕	0%	1.7m/s
06:00	✓	0%	1.6m/s
07:00	✓	0%	1.8m/s
08:00	✓	0%	1.4m/s
09:00	✕	0%	1.3m/s
10:00	✕	0%	1.1m/s
11:00	✕	0%	1m/s
12:00	✕	0%	1m/s
13:00	✕	0%	0.99m/s
14:00	✕	0%	0.96m/s
15:00	✕	0%	1.1m/s
16:00	✕	0%	1.2m/s
17:00	✕	0%	1.4m/s
18:00	✕	0%	1.3m/s
19:00	✕	0%	1.2m/s
20:00	✕	0%	1.1m/s
21:00	✕	0%	1.1m/s
22:00	✕	0%	1.2m/s
23:00	✕	0%	1.2m/s
Sun, Apr 12
24:00	✕	0%	1.2m/s
01:00	✕	0%	1.2m/s

How to read: colored cells show whether each predicate requirement is met; highlighted rows mean the full rule matched (an opportunity).

What does Frost Probability mean?

Inputs that drive the score

This derived score summarizes multiple raw weather signals. The table below shows the supporting inputs hour by hour, so you can see what's pushing the score up or down.

Time America/New_York	Dew Point °C	Surface Temperature °C	Temperature °C	Time Window	Total Cloud Coverage %	Vapor Pressure Deficit kPa
Thu, Apr 9 Sunrise 07:09 Sunset 20:01
04:00 ☾	1.4°C	11°C	6.6°C	-	96%	0.3kPa
05:00 ☾	1°C	10°C	6.2°C	-	100%	0.29kPa
06:00 ☾	0.5°C	10°C	5.8°C	-	100%	0.29kPa
07:00 ☾	-0.1°C	9.7°C	5.6°C	-	100%	0.3kPa
08:00 ☾	0.6°C	9.5°C	6.6°C	-	100%	0.34kPa
09:00 ☾	0.9°C	9.4°C	9.4°C	-	98%	0.53kPa
10:00 ☾	1.5°C	9.7°C	12°C	-	96%	0.73kPa
11:00 ☾	2.2°C	10°C	14°C	-	92%	0.89kPa
12:00 ☾	3°C	10°C	16°C	-	98%	1.1kPa
13:00 ☾	3.7°C	11°C	17°C	-	100%	1.2kPa
14:00 ☾	4.1°C	11°C	18°C	-	100%	1.2kPa
15:00 ☾	4.4°C	12°C	18°C	-	90%	1.3kPa
16:00 ☾	4.7°C	12°C	19°C	-	33%	1.3kPa
17:00 ☾	5.1°C	13°C	18°C	-	4%	1.2kPa
18:00 ☾	5.7°C	13°C	18°C	-	1%	1.1kPa
19:00 ☾	8.4°C	13°C	16°C	-	1%	0.67kPa
20:00 ☾	7.1°C	13°C	12°C	-	0%	0.36kPa
21:00 ☾	6.4°C	13°C	11°C	-	0%	0.33kPa
22:00 ☾	5.8°C	12°C	10°C	-	0%	0.33kPa
23:00 ☾	5.2°C	12°C	9.8°C	-	0%	0.33kPa
Fri, Apr 10 Sunrise 07:08 Sunset 20:02
24:00 ☾	4.4°C	12°C	9.4°C	-	0%	0.34kPa
01:00 ☾	3.6°C	12°C	9°C	-	0%	0.35kPa
02:00 ☾	2.9°C	12°C	8.6°C	-	0%	0.36kPa
03:00 ☾	2.5°C	11°C	8.1°C	-	0%	0.34kPa
04:00 ☾	2.1°C	11°C	7.7°C	-	0%	0.34kPa
05:00 ☾	1.8°C	11°C	7.5°C	-	0%	0.34kPa
06:00 ☾	1.5°C	11°C	7.3°C	-	0%	0.34kPa
07:00 ☾	1.2°C	10°C	7°C	-	0%	0.34kPa
08:00 ☾	2.4°C	10°C	8.4°C	-	0%	0.38kPa
09:00 ☾	3.2°C	10°C	12°C	-	0%	0.59kPa
10:00 ☾	4.5°C	10°C	14°C	-	5%	0.8kPa
11:00 ☾	5.4°C	11°C	17°C	-	4%	1kPa
12:00 ☾	5.8°C	11°C	18°C	-	4%	1.1kPa
13:00 ☾	6°C	12°C	19°C	-	0%	1.3kPa
14:00 ☾	6.2°C	12°C	20°C	-	5%	1.4kPa
15:00 ☾	6.4°C	13°C	20°C	-	0%	1.4kPa
16:00 ☾	6.4°C	13°C	20°C	-	0%	1.4kPa
17:00 ☾	6.6°C	14°C	20°C	-	0%	1.4kPa
18:00 ☾	6.6°C	14°C	19°C	-	0%	1.2kPa
19:00 ☾	8.7°C	14°C	17°C	-	0%	0.8kPa
20:00 ☾	6.6°C	14°C	13°C	-	5%	0.51kPa
21:00 ☾	5.8°C	14°C	12°C	-	18%	0.47kPa
22:00 ☾	5.4°C	13°C	11°C	-	22%	0.45kPa
23:00 ☾	5.1°C	13°C	11°C	-	7%	0.45kPa
Sat, Apr 11 Sunrise 07:06 Sunset 20:03
24:00 ☾	5°C	13°C	11°C	-	21%	0.44kPa
01:00 ☾	4.9°C	13°C	11°C	-	28%	0.41kPa
02:00 ☾	4.6°C	13°C	10°C	-	24%	0.41kPa
03:00 ☾	4.2°C	12°C	10°C	-	5%	0.4kPa
04:00 ☾	3.8°C	12°C	9.9°C	-	19%	0.42kPa
05:00 ☾	3.3°C	12°C	9.7°C	-	5%	0.43kPa
06:00 ☾	2.7°C	12°C	9.6°C	-	1%	0.45kPa
07:00 ☾	2.4°C	11°C	9.5°C	-	96%	0.46kPa
08:00 ☾	3.8°C	11°C	11°C	-	100%	0.49kPa
09:00 ☾	4.6°C	13°C	14°C	-	68%	0.8kPa
10:00 ☾	4.7°C	14°C	18°C	-	35%	1.2kPa
11:00 ☾	3.9°C	15°C	22°C	-	3%	1.8kPa
12:00 ☾	6.4°C	15°C	19°C	-	4%	1.2kPa
13:00 ☾	7.7°C	15°C	16°C	-	4%	0.81kPa
14:00 ☾	8.1°C	16°C	14°C	-	4%	0.48kPa
15:00 ☾	7.8°C	15°C	13°C	-	35%	0.42kPa
16:00 ☾	7.5°C	15°C	12°C	-	65%	0.37kPa
17:00 ☾	7.2°C	15°C	11°C	-	96%	0.32kPa
18:00 ☾	6.7°C	14°C	11°C	-	97%	0.31kPa
19:00 ☾	6.2°C	14°C	10°C	-	98%	0.31kPa
20:00 ☾	5.7°C	14°C	9.8°C	-	99%	0.3kPa
21:00 ☾	5.5°C	13°C	9.6°C	-	74%	0.29kPa
22:00 ☾	5.3°C	13°C	9.4°C	-	49%	0.29kPa
23:00 ☾	5.1°C	13°C	9.1°C	-	24%	0.28kPa
Sun, Apr 12 Sunrise 07:05 Sunset 20:03
24:00 ☾	5.2°C	13°C	9.5°C	-	39%	0.3kPa
01:00 ☾	5.2°C	12°C	9.8°C	-	53%	0.33kPa
02:00 ☾	5.3°C	12°C	10°C	-	68%	0.35kPa
03:00 ☾	5.8°C	12°C	13°C	-	78%	0.53kPa

How to read: these inputs help produce the derived score; they are not requirements by themselves.

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