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Rule Morning Frost

Gatlinburg - Morning Frost - Smoky Mountains & Blue Ridge

Gatlinburg, Tennessee, United States

Frost crystals on calm, cold mornings near sunrise

No opportunities right now
Here’s what usually blocks matches

No Morning Frost opportunities in the next 14 days

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Rule requirements (key thresholds)
Time Window · Sunrise -45m to +90m Frost Probability · ≥ 60.0% Wind Speed · ≤ 1.5m/s

Tip: Scroll down to the 72-hour table to see exactly which condition fails hour by hour.

Most common blockers (next 72 hours)
Time Window 88% failing
Frost Probability 86% failing
Wind Speed 75% failing

Currently

Real-time conditions
Frost Probability
31%
Soil Temperature4.8°C
Dew Point-7.1°C (low dew point)
Wind Speed6.3m/s (moderate winds)
Cloud Cover100%

Upcoming Opportunities

When all conditions match, PhotoWeather marks an opportunity window.

Times shown in America/New_York

No opportunities in the next 10 days

See the blocker timeline below to understand which conditions are preventing matches.

What this forecast looks for

Plain-language explanation from the rule

This forecast predicts the first hard frost events that enhance the Smokies' autumn landscapes with crystalline textures. We track overnight temperatures, humidity, and elevation to identify when frost will coat mountain meadows, overlooks, and exposed vegetation with sparkling ice crystals at dawn.

The Smokies' elevation range means frost arrives at different times depending on altitude. Clingmans Dome and high overlooks can see frost as early as late September, while valleys may not freeze until late October or November. This staggered frost timing extends the season for frost photography and creates interesting elevation-based opportunities.

What makes Smoky Mountains frost photography exceptional:

  • Mountain meadows - High-elevation grassy areas like Andrews Bald develop heavy frost coverage on clear nights
  • Clingmans Dome conditions - At 6,643 feet, the highest point often experiences hoar frost creating alien landscapes
  • Frozen waterfalls - Later season frost leads to ice formations on the Smokies' countless waterfalls
  • Foliage combination - Early season frost can coincide with peak color, coating colorful leaves with ice crystals

Best frost photography requires clear, calm nights with temperatures dropping into the mid-20s Fahrenheit. High elevation locations experience frost most reliably, while valley locations need colder conditions. Arrive before dawn to catch frost plus first light—frost melts quickly after sunrise. Classic locations include Clingmans Dome observation tower, Grassy patches along Appalachian Trail, and roadside overlooks above 5,000 feet elevation.

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72-hour requirements breakdown

What passed or failed, hour by hour
0matching hours in the next 95 hours
AND logic: all conditions required
Meets requirement
Misses requirement
Time
America/New_York
Time Window
Sunrise -45m to +90m
Frost Probability
≥ 60.0%
Wind Speed
≤ 1.5m/s
Sat, Feb 21
14:00✕0%2.4m/s
15:00✕0%2.3m/s
16:00✕0%1.9m/s
17:00✕0%0.79m/s
18:00✕0%0.61m/s
19:00✕0%0.57m/s
20:00✕0%1.1m/s
21:00✕0%3.3m/s
22:00✕0%3.3m/s
23:00✕0%1.7m/s
Sun, Feb 22
24:00✕0%0.51m/s
01:00✕0%1.9m/s
02:00✕0%2.1m/s
03:00✕0%2m/s
04:00✕1.2%2m/s
05:00✕1.2%2.6m/s
06:00✓1.2%2.6m/s
07:00✓1.6%2.5m/s
08:00✓1.6%2m/s
09:00✕1.6%2.6m/s
10:00✕13%4.5m/s
11:00✕24%4.7m/s
12:00✕24%4.6m/s
13:00✕24%5.4m/s
14:00✕31%6.3m/s
15:00✕22%6.2m/s
16:00✕22%5.7m/s
17:00✕24%5.1m/s
18:00✕24%4.6m/s
19:00✕21%4.3m/s
20:00✕23%4.2m/s
21:00✕25%3.5m/s
22:00✕17%3.6m/s
23:00✕15%4.3m/s
Mon, Feb 23
24:00✕15%4.5m/s
01:00✕15%4.7m/s
02:00✕15%4.3m/s
03:00✕17%4.1m/s
04:00✕17%3.8m/s
05:00✕17%3.5m/s
06:00✓17%3.4m/s
07:00✓17%3.3m/s
08:00✓17%3m/s
09:00✕24%3.2m/s
10:00✕32%3.4m/s
11:00✕35%4m/s
12:00✕33%4.5m/s
13:00✕37%4.8m/s
14:00✕42%4.8m/s
15:00✕42%5.4m/s
16:00✕42%5.4m/s
17:00✕42%4.6m/s
18:00✕39%4m/s
19:00✕37%2.7m/s
20:00✕39%1.5m/s
21:00✕37%2.2m/s
22:00✕39%1.5m/s
23:00✕37%1.2m/s
Tue, Feb 24
24:00✕55%1.6m/s
01:00✕57%0.53m/s
02:00✕47%0.92m/s
03:00✕54%1.4m/s
04:00✕54%1.3m/s
05:00✕43%1.6m/s
06:00✓43%1.5m/s
07:00✓43%1.4m/s
08:00✓54%0.81m/s
09:00✕60%0.21m/s
10:00✕63%1.2m/s
11:00✕63%1.7m/s
12:00✕61%2m/s
13:00✕57%2.2m/s
14:00✕57%2.5m/s
15:00✕57%2.5m/s
16:00✕57%2.6m/s
17:00✕61%1.9m/s
18:00✕54%1.6m/s
19:00✕52%2.4m/s
20:00✕52%1.8m/s
21:00✕64%1.1m/s
22:00✕63%0.47m/s
23:00✕55%0.53m/s
Wed, Feb 25
24:00✕55%0.58m/s
01:00✕55%0.64m/s
02:00✕53%1.2m/s
03:00✕55%1.8m/s
04:00✕63%2.4m/s
05:00✕63%2.5m/s
06:00✓62%2.6m/s
07:00✓54%2.7m/s
08:00✓54%2.4m/s
09:00✕54%2.2m/s
10:00✕41%1.9m/s
11:00✕39%1.7m/s
12:00✕39%1.5m/s
How to read: colored cells show whether each predicate requirement is met; highlighted rows mean the full rule matched (an opportunity).

What does Frost Probability mean?

Inputs that drive the score

This derived score summarizes multiple raw weather signals. The table below shows the supporting inputs hour by hour, so you can see what's pushing the score up or down.

Time
America/New_York
Dew Point
°C
Surface Temperature
°C
Temperature
°C
Time Window
Total Cloud Coverage
%
Vapor Pressure Deficit
kPa
Sun, Feb 22 Sunrise 07:12 Sunset 18:22
14:00
-7.1°C 4.8°C -1°C - 100% 0.21kPa
15:00
-6.7°C 4.6°C -0.92°C - 100% 0.2kPa
16:00
-6.8°C 4.4°C -1.8°C - 100% 0.17kPa
17:00
-6.8°C 4.2°C -2.5°C - 100% 0.14kPa
18:00
-7.2°C 4.1°C -3.4°C - 100% 0.12kPa
19:00 ☾
-7.4°C 4.1°C -4.2°C - 100% 0.1kPa
20:00 ☾
-8.1°C 4°C -4.9°C - 100% 0.09kPa
21:00 ☾
-8.4°C 4°C -5.3°C - 100% 0.09kPa
22:00 ☾
-8.5°C 4°C -5.6°C - 100% 0.08kPa
23:00 ☾
-8.6°C 3.9°C -6°C - 100% 0.07kPa
Mon, Feb 23 Sunrise 07:11 Sunset 18:23
24:00 ☾
-8.9°C 3.9°C -6.3°C - 100% 0.07kPa
01:00 ☾
-9.3°C 3.8°C -6.6°C - 100% 0.07kPa
02:00 ☾
-9.5°C 3.7°C -6.7°C - 100% 0.07kPa
03:00 ☾
-9.7°C 3.7°C -7°C - 98% 0.07kPa
04:00 ☾
-9.7°C 3.6°C -7.2°C - 100% 0.06kPa
05:00 ☾
-9.7°C 3.5°C -7.4°C - 100% 0.06kPa
06:00 ☾
-9.9°C 3.4°C -7.5°C - 100% 0.06kPa
07:00 ☾
-10°C 3.3°C -7.7°C - 100% 0.06kPa
08:00
-10°C 3.1°C -7.6°C - 100% 0.06kPa
09:00
-9.7°C 2.9°C -7°C - 100% 0.07kPa
10:00
-9.5°C 2.8°C -6.1°C - 100% 0.09kPa
11:00
-9.6°C 2.7°C -5°C - 100% 0.13kPa
12:00
-9.9°C 2.6°C -4.4°C - 100% 0.15kPa
13:00
-11°C 2.6°C -3.5°C - 99% 0.2kPa
14:00
-10°C 2.6°C -2.2°C - 97% 0.25kPa
15:00
-10°C 2.6°C -1.5°C - 91% 0.26kPa
16:00
-9.6°C 2.6°C -1.4°C - 94% 0.25kPa
17:00
-9.4°C 2.5°C -1.8°C - 94% 0.23kPa
18:00
-9.7°C 2.5°C -3°C - 93% 0.2kPa
19:00 ☾
-9.6°C 2.4°C -4°C - 91% 0.16kPa
20:00 ☾
-9.4°C 2.3°C -5.2°C - 99% 0.12kPa
21:00 ☾
-9.2°C 2.2°C -4.4°C - 92% 0.14kPa
22:00 ☾
-9°C 2.1°C -5.1°C - 81% 0.11kPa
23:00 ☾
-9°C 2.1°C -5.7°C - 77% 0.09kPa
Tue, Feb 24 Sunrise 07:10 Sunset 18:24
24:00 ☾
-9.9°C 2°C -5.6°C - 70% 0.11kPa
01:00 ☾
-10°C 1.9°C -6.6°C - 58% 0.09kPa
02:00 ☾
-11°C 1.9°C -8°C - 44% 0.07kPa
03:00 ☾
-11°C 1.9°C -9.1°C - 19% 0.05kPa
04:00 ☾
-12°C 1.9°C -9.5°C - 17% 0.04kPa
05:00 ☾
-12°C 1.9°C -9.6°C - 93% 0.05kPa
06:00 ☾
-12°C 1.8°C -9.3°C - 100% 0.05kPa
07:00 ☾
-11°C 1.7°C -8.7°C - 100% 0.06kPa
08:00
-11°C 1.6°C -6.6°C - 100% 0.11kPa
09:00
-10°C 1.5°C -3.7°C - 100% 0.19kPa
10:00
-10°C 1.5°C -1.3°C - 100% 0.27kPa
11:00
-9.1°C 1.5°C 0.47°C - 100% 0.32kPa
12:00
-8.2°C 1.5°C 1.8°C - 100% 0.36kPa
13:00
-7.2°C 1.5°C 3.3°C - 100% 0.42kPa
14:00
-6.5°C 1.5°C 4.5°C - 100% 0.46kPa
15:00
-6.1°C 1.5°C 5°C - 100% 0.48kPa
16:00
-5.5°C 1.5°C 4.9°C - 100% 0.46kPa
17:00
-3.1°C 1.5°C 4.2°C - 100% 0.34kPa
18:00
-2.7°C 1.5°C 1.4°C - 100% 0.18kPa
19:00 ☾
-4°C 1.5°C -0.61°C - 100% 0.13kPa
20:00 ☾
-4.9°C 1.2°C -1.6°C - 98% 0.12kPa
21:00 ☾
-5.8°C 0.87°C -2.6°C - 96% 0.11kPa
22:00 ☾
-6.7°C 0.54°C -3.6°C - 94% 0.1kPa
23:00 ☾
-5.6°C 0.55°C -3.1°C - 96% 0.08kPa
Wed, Feb 25 Sunrise 07:09 Sunset 18:25
24:00 ☾
-4.5°C 0.56°C -2.6°C - 98% 0.07kPa
01:00 ☾
-3.3°C 0.57°C -2°C - 99% 0.05kPa
02:00 ☾
-2°C 0.58°C 0.08°C - 88% 0.08kPa
03:00 ☾
-0.6°C 0.58°C 2.2°C - 78% 0.13kPa
04:00 ☾
0.6°C 0.59°C 4.3°C - 67% 0.19kPa
05:00 ☾
2°C 0.59°C 5.4°C - 78% 0.19kPa
06:00 ☾
3.5°C 0.59°C 6.6°C - 89% 0.19kPa
07:00 ☾
4.9°C 0.59°C 7.7°C - 100% 0.19kPa
08:00
5°C 0.75°C 7.2°C - 100% 0.15kPa
09:00
5°C 0.92°C 6.7°C - 100% 0.11kPa
10:00
5.1°C 1.1°C 6.3°C - 100% 0.08kPa
11:00
4.6°C 1.2°C 5.4°C - 100% 0.05kPa
12:00
4.1°C 1.4°C 4.5°C - 100% 0.02kPa
13:00
3.6°C 1.5°C 3.6°C - 100% 0kPa
How to read: these inputs help produce the derived score; they are not requirements by themselves.

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