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Rule Morning Frost

Bryson City - Morning Frost - Smoky Mountains & Blue Ridge

Bryson City, North Carolina, United States

Frost crystals on calm, cold mornings near sunrise

Currently

Real-time conditions
Frost Probability
22%
Soil Temperature5.3°C
Dew Point-7.7°C (low dew point)
Wind Speed7.6m/s (moderate winds)
Cloud Cover100%

Upcoming Opportunities

When all conditions match, PhotoWeather marks an opportunity window.

Times shown in America/New_York
Next opportunity
Light Frost
Bryson City
Tue, Feb 24 · 08:00–08:39 · 1h window
Medium confidence
48%
❄️Frost Probability63%
Soil Temperature: 0.0°C
Dew Point: -12.8°C (low dew point)
Wind Speed: 0.7m/s (calm conditions)
Cloud Cover: 100%

What this forecast looks for

Plain-language explanation from the rule

This forecast predicts the first hard frost events that enhance the Smokies' autumn landscapes with crystalline textures. We track overnight temperatures, humidity, and elevation to identify when frost will coat mountain meadows, overlooks, and exposed vegetation with sparkling ice crystals at dawn.

The Smokies' elevation range means frost arrives at different times depending on altitude. Clingmans Dome and high overlooks can see frost as early as late September, while valleys may not freeze until late October or November. This staggered frost timing extends the season for frost photography and creates interesting elevation-based opportunities.

What makes Smoky Mountains frost photography exceptional:

  • Mountain meadows - High-elevation grassy areas like Andrews Bald develop heavy frost coverage on clear nights
  • Clingmans Dome conditions - At 6,643 feet, the highest point often experiences hoar frost creating alien landscapes
  • Frozen waterfalls - Later season frost leads to ice formations on the Smokies' countless waterfalls
  • Foliage combination - Early season frost can coincide with peak color, coating colorful leaves with ice crystals

Best frost photography requires clear, calm nights with temperatures dropping into the mid-20s Fahrenheit. High elevation locations experience frost most reliably, while valley locations need colder conditions. Arrive before dawn to catch frost plus first light—frost melts quickly after sunrise. Classic locations include Clingmans Dome observation tower, Grassy patches along Appalachian Trail, and roadside overlooks above 5,000 feet elevation.

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72-hour requirements breakdown

What passed or failed, hour by hour
1matching hours in the next 95 hoursJump to next match
AND logic: all conditions required
Meets requirement
Misses requirement
Time
America/New_York
Time Window
Sunrise -45m to +90m
Frost Probability
≥ 60.0%
Wind Speed
≤ 1.5m/s
Sat, Feb 21
14:00✕0%1.2m/s
15:00✕0%1.4m/s
16:00✕0%1.4m/s
17:00✕0%1.1m/s
18:00✕0%1.3m/s
19:00✕0%1.4m/s
20:00✕0%1.9m/s
21:00✕0%2.2m/s
22:00✕0%2.5m/s
23:00✕0%3.7m/s
Sun, Feb 22
24:00✕0%2.5m/s
01:00✕0%2.7m/s
02:00✕0%2.7m/s
03:00✕0%3m/s
04:00✕0%2.9m/s
05:00✕1%2.8m/s
06:00✓1%2.9m/s
07:00✓1.4%3.2m/s
08:00✓1.4%3m/s
09:00✕2.6%3.9m/s
10:00✕3.4%4.7m/s
11:00✕32%4.6m/s
12:00✕25%5.1m/s
13:00✕22%6.4m/s
14:00✕22%7.6m/s
15:00✕22%7.5m/s
16:00✕22%7.2m/s
17:00✕11%6.3m/s
18:00✕11%5.7m/s
19:00✕13%5.1m/s
20:00✕13%4.9m/s
21:00✕13%4.3m/s
22:00✕13%4.3m/s
23:00✕13%4.7m/s
Mon, Feb 23
24:00✕13%5m/s
01:00✕13%4.9m/s
02:00✕13%4.6m/s
03:00✕15%4.4m/s
04:00✕17%4.1m/s
05:00✕17%3.9m/s
06:00✓18%3.6m/s
07:00✓25%3.5m/s
08:00✓25%3.5m/s
09:00✕32%3.8m/s
10:00✕45%4.2m/s
11:00✕48%4.6m/s
12:00✕48%4.9m/s
13:00✕48%5.1m/s
14:00✕52%5.1m/s
15:00✕52%5.1m/s
16:00✕52%5.1m/s
17:00✕48%4.6m/s
18:00✕51%4.2m/s
19:00✕51%3.7m/s
20:00✕40%3.4m/s
21:00✕40%3.2m/s
22:00✕40%3m/s
23:00✕43%2.9m/s
Tue, Feb 24
24:00✕45%2.6m/s
01:00✕45%2.3m/s
02:00✕58%2.1m/s
03:00✕58%1.9m/s
04:00✕66%2m/s
05:00✕54%1.7m/s
06:00✓53%1.6m/s
07:00✓53%1.1m/s
08:00✓63%0.75m/s
09:00✕71%0.81m/s
10:00✕76%1.2m/s
11:00✕76%1.5m/s
12:00✕72%1.8m/s
13:00✕70%2.1m/s
14:00✕67%2.2m/s
15:00✕67%2m/s
16:00✕67%1.8m/s
17:00✕73%1.5m/s
18:00✕64%1.2m/s
19:00✕64%1.2m/s
20:00✕64%0.99m/s
21:00✕66%0.73m/s
22:00✕63%0.47m/s
23:00✕55%0.53m/s
Wed, Feb 25
24:00✕55%0.58m/s
01:00✕55%0.64m/s
02:00✕53%1.2m/s
03:00✕55%1.8m/s
04:00✕63%2.4m/s
05:00✕63%2.5m/s
06:00✓62%2.6m/s
07:00✓54%2.7m/s
08:00✓54%2.4m/s
09:00✕54%2.2m/s
10:00✕41%1.9m/s
11:00✕39%1.7m/s
12:00✕39%1.5m/s
How to read: colored cells show whether each predicate requirement is met; highlighted rows mean the full rule matched (an opportunity).

What does Frost Probability mean?

Inputs that drive the score

This derived score summarizes multiple raw weather signals. The table below shows the supporting inputs hour by hour, so you can see what's pushing the score up or down.

Time
America/New_York
Dew Point
°C
Surface Temperature
°C
Temperature
°C
Time Window
Total Cloud Coverage
%
Vapor Pressure Deficit
kPa
Sun, Feb 22 Sunrise 07:12 Sunset 18:22
14:00
-7.7°C 5.3°C -2.7°C - 100% 0.16kPa
15:00
-7.6°C 5°C -3.2°C - 100% 0.14kPa
16:00
-7.7°C 4.7°C -4°C - 92% 0.11kPa
17:00
-7.8°C 4.7°C -5°C - 85% 0.08kPa
18:00
-8.1°C 4.7°C -6°C - 87% 0.06kPa
19:00 ☾
-8.5°C 4.7°C -6.7°C - 92% 0.05kPa
20:00 ☾
-8.9°C 4.7°C -7.1°C - 97% 0.05kPa
21:00 ☾
-9.4°C 4.7°C -7.4°C - 94% 0.05kPa
22:00 ☾
-9.6°C 4.7°C -7.8°C - 88% 0.04kPa
23:00 ☾
-9.8°C 4.5°C -8.1°C - 97% 0.04kPa
Mon, Feb 23 Sunrise 07:11 Sunset 18:23
24:00 ☾
-10°C 4.4°C -8.5°C - 94% 0.04kPa
01:00 ☾
-11°C 4.3°C -8.8°C - 99% 0.04kPa
02:00 ☾
-11°C 4.1°C -9°C - 100% 0.04kPa
03:00 ☾
-11°C 3.8°C -9.1°C - 94% 0.04kPa
04:00 ☾
-11°C 3.6°C -9.4°C - 89% 0.04kPa
05:00 ☾
-11°C 3.3°C -9.6°C - 83% 0.04kPa
06:00 ☾
-11°C 3°C -9.8°C - 73% 0.04kPa
07:00 ☾
-12°C 2.8°C -10°C - 73% 0.03kPa
08:00
-12°C 2.4°C -9.6°C - 73% 0.05kPa
09:00
-12°C 2.1°C -8.7°C - 87% 0.07kPa
10:00
-12°C 2°C -7.5°C - 92% 0.1kPa
11:00
-11°C 1.9°C -6.4°C - 97% 0.12kPa
12:00
-10°C 1.9°C -5.7°C - 92% 0.12kPa
13:00
-10°C 1.9°C -5.1°C - 86% 0.14kPa
14:00
-11°C 1.9°C -4.5°C - 92% 0.17kPa
15:00
-11°C 1.9°C -3.9°C - 96% 0.19kPa
16:00
-10°C 1.9°C -3.8°C - 94% 0.19kPa
17:00
-10°C 1.8°C -4.2°C - 89% 0.16kPa
18:00
-10°C 1.7°C -5.7°C - 72% 0.11kPa
19:00 ☾
-10°C 1.6°C -6.9°C - 60% 0.08kPa
20:00 ☾
-10°C 1.6°C -7.5°C - 66% 0.06kPa
21:00 ☾
-9.9°C 1.5°C -7.9°C - 61% 0.05kPa
22:00 ☾
-9.7°C 1.4°C -8.2°C - 71% 0.04kPa
23:00 ☾
-10°C 1.3°C -8.8°C - 58% 0.03kPa
Tue, Feb 24 Sunrise 07:09 Sunset 18:24
24:00 ☾
-10°C 1.2°C -9.2°C - 56% 0.03kPa
01:00 ☾
-11°C 1.1°C -9.9°C - 46% 0.02kPa
02:00 ☾
-12°C 0.93°C -11°C - 39% 0.02kPa
03:00 ☾
-12°C 0.8°C -11°C - 31% 0.02kPa
04:00 ☾
-13°C 0.66°C -11°C - 9% 0.03kPa
05:00 ☾
-13°C 0.53°C -12°C - 73% 0.03kPa
06:00 ☾
-13°C 0.39°C -11°C - 100% 0.04kPa
07:00 ☾
-13°C 0.19°C -11°C - 100% 0.05kPa
08:00
-13°C 0.03°C -8.4°C - 100% 0.1kPa
09:00
-12°C -0.01°C -4.9°C - 100% 0.18kPa
10:00
-11°C -0.008°C -1.9°C - 100% 0.27kPa
11:00
-9.8°C -0.01°C 0.17°C - 100% 0.33kPa
12:00
-8.6°C -0.008°C 1.6°C - 100% 0.36kPa
13:00
-7.9°C -0.008°C 2.7°C - 100% 0.41kPa
14:00
-7.7°C 0.05°C 3.4°C - 100% 0.43kPa
15:00
-7.4°C 0.14°C 3.8°C - 100% 0.45kPa
16:00
-7.1°C 0.23°C 3.4°C - 93% 0.42kPa
17:00
-5.8°C 0.31°C 2.9°C - 100% 0.36kPa
18:00
-5.4°C 0.43°C -0.09°C - 90% 0.2kPa
19:00 ☾
-7.4°C 0.44°C -3.2°C - 100% 0.13kPa
20:00 ☾
-7.2°C 0.47°C -3.4°C - 98% 0.12kPa
21:00 ☾
-6.9°C 0.51°C -3.5°C - 96% 0.11kPa
22:00 ☾
-6.7°C 0.54°C -3.6°C - 94% 0.1kPa
23:00 ☾
-5.6°C 0.55°C -3.1°C - 96% 0.08kPa
Wed, Feb 25 Sunrise 07:08 Sunset 18:25
24:00 ☾
-4.5°C 0.56°C -2.6°C - 98% 0.07kPa
01:00 ☾
-3.3°C 0.57°C -2°C - 99% 0.05kPa
02:00 ☾
-2°C 0.58°C 0.08°C - 88% 0.08kPa
03:00 ☾
-0.6°C 0.58°C 2.2°C - 78% 0.13kPa
04:00 ☾
0.6°C 0.59°C 4.3°C - 67% 0.19kPa
05:00 ☾
2°C 0.59°C 5.4°C - 78% 0.19kPa
06:00 ☾
3.5°C 0.59°C 6.6°C - 89% 0.19kPa
07:00 ☾
4.9°C 0.59°C 7.7°C - 100% 0.19kPa
08:00
5°C 0.75°C 7.2°C - 100% 0.15kPa
09:00
5°C 0.92°C 6.7°C - 100% 0.11kPa
10:00
5.1°C 1.1°C 6.3°C - 100% 0.08kPa
11:00
4.6°C 1.2°C 5.4°C - 100% 0.05kPa
12:00
4.1°C 1.4°C 4.5°C - 100% 0.02kPa
13:00
3.6°C 1.5°C 3.6°C - 100% 0kPa
How to read: these inputs help produce the derived score; they are not requirements by themselves.

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