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No opportunity windows are predicted in the next 10 days. Conditions can change quickly, so check back for updates.

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Rule Morning Frost

Bryson City - Morning Frost - Smoky Mountains & Blue Ridge

Q: What conditions does Morning Frost look for?

Time Window: Sunrise -45m to +90m. Frost Probability: ≥ 60.0%. Wind Speed: ≤ 1.5m/s

Bryson City, North Carolina, United States

Frost crystals on calm, cold mornings near sunrise

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No Morning Frost opportunities in the next 14 days

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Rule requirements (key thresholds)

Time Window · Sunrise -45m to +90m Frost Probability · ≥ 60.0% Wind Speed · ≤ 1.5m/s

Tip: Scroll down to the 72-hour table to see exactly which condition fails hour by hour.

Most common blockers (next 72 hours)

Frost Probability 100% failing

Time Window 88% failing

Wind Speed 26% failing

Currently

Real-time conditions

Frost Probability

Soil Temperature10.5°C

Dew Point2.0°C (low dew point)

Wind Speed1.6m/s (calm conditions)

Cloud Cover100%

Upcoming Opportunities

When all conditions match, PhotoWeather marks an opportunity window.

Times shown in America/New_York

No opportunities in the next 10 days

See the blocker timeline below to understand which conditions are preventing matches.

What this forecast looks for

Plain-language explanation from the rule

This forecast predicts the first hard frost events that enhance the Smokies' autumn landscapes with crystalline textures. We track overnight temperatures, humidity, and elevation to identify when frost will coat mountain meadows, overlooks, and exposed vegetation with sparkling ice crystals at dawn.

The Smokies' elevation range means frost arrives at different times depending on altitude. Clingmans Dome and high overlooks can see frost as early as late September, while valleys may not freeze until late October or November. This staggered frost timing extends the season for frost photography and creates interesting elevation-based opportunities.

What makes Smoky Mountains frost photography exceptional:

Mountain meadows - High-elevation grassy areas like Andrews Bald develop heavy frost coverage on clear nights
Clingmans Dome conditions - At 6,643 feet, the highest point often experiences hoar frost creating alien landscapes
Frozen waterfalls - Later season frost leads to ice formations on the Smokies' countless waterfalls
Foliage combination - Early season frost can coincide with peak color, coating colorful leaves with ice crystals

Best frost photography requires clear, calm nights with temperatures dropping into the mid-20s Fahrenheit. High elevation locations experience frost most reliably, while valley locations need colder conditions. Arrive before dawn to catch frost plus first light—frost melts quickly after sunrise. Classic locations include Clingmans Dome observation tower, Grassy patches along Appalachian Trail, and roadside overlooks above 5,000 feet elevation.

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72-hour requirements breakdown

What passed or failed, hour by hour

0matching hours in the next 92 hours

AND logic: all conditions required

Meets requirement

Misses requirement

Time America/New_York	Time Window Sunrise -45m to +90m	Frost Probability ≥ 60.0%	Wind Speed ≤ 1.5m/s
Wed, Apr 8
24:00	✕	0%	1.7m/s
01:00	✕	0%	1.5m/s
02:00	✕	0%	1.3m/s
03:00	✕	0%	1.3m/s
04:00	✕	0%	1.4m/s
05:00	✕	0%	1.6m/s
06:00	✓	0%	1.6m/s
07:00	✓	2.9%	1.6m/s
08:00	✓	3.4%	1.6m/s
09:00	✕	3.6%	1.9m/s
10:00	✕	3.4%	2.2m/s
11:00	✕	0%	2.2m/s
12:00	✕	0%	2.1m/s
13:00	✕	0%	2.2m/s
14:00	✕	0%	2.2m/s
15:00	✕	0%	2.4m/s
16:00	✕	0%	2.8m/s
17:00	✕	0%	2.6m/s
18:00	✕	0%	1.8m/s
19:00	✕	0%	1.4m/s
20:00	✕	0%	1.5m/s
21:00	✕	0%	1.7m/s
22:00	✕	0%	1.6m/s
23:00	✕	0%	1.7m/s
Thu, Apr 9
24:00	✕	0%	1.8m/s
01:00	✕	0%	1.7m/s
02:00	✕	0%	1.8m/s
03:00	✕	0%	1.7m/s
04:00	✕	0%	1.7m/s
05:00	✕	0%	1.5m/s
06:00	✓	0%	1.6m/s
07:00	✓	2.9%	1.5m/s
08:00	✓	3.4%	1.3m/s
09:00	✕	3.8%	1.3m/s
10:00	✕	3.6%	1.3m/s
11:00	✕	3.1%	1.3m/s
12:00	✕	0%	1.3m/s
13:00	✕	0%	1.3m/s
14:00	✕	0%	1.4m/s
15:00	✕	0%	1.4m/s
16:00	✕	0%	1.4m/s
17:00	✕	0%	1.1m/s
18:00	✕	0%	0.88m/s
19:00	✕	0%	0.62m/s
20:00	✕	0%	0.49m/s
21:00	✕	0%	1.1m/s
22:00	✕	0%	1.4m/s
23:00	✕	0%	1.3m/s
Fri, Apr 10
24:00	✕	0%	1.2m/s
01:00	✕	0%	1.1m/s
02:00	✕	0%	1.4m/s
03:00	✕	0%	1.3m/s
04:00	✕	0%	1.1m/s
05:00	✕	0%	1.3m/s
06:00	✓	0%	1m/s
07:00	✓	0%	0.86m/s
08:00	✓	0%	0.9m/s
09:00	✕	0%	0.61m/s
10:00	✕	0%	0.83m/s
11:00	✕	0%	0.99m/s
12:00	✕	0%	1.1m/s
13:00	✕	0%	1.3m/s
14:00	✕	0%	1.4m/s
15:00	✕	0%	1.6m/s
16:00	✕	0%	1.5m/s
17:00	✕	0%	1.4m/s
18:00	✕	0%	1.3m/s
19:00	✕	0%	1.6m/s
20:00	✕	0%	2m/s
21:00	✕	0%	1.8m/s
22:00	✕	0%	1.5m/s
23:00	✕	0%	1m/s
Sat, Apr 11
24:00	✕	0%	0.58m/s
01:00	✕	0%	0.64m/s
02:00	✕	0%	0.8m/s
03:00	✕	0%	0.61m/s
04:00	✕	0%	0.42m/s
05:00	✕	0%	0.22m/s
06:00	✓	0%	0.59m/s
07:00	✓	0%	0.95m/s
08:00	✓	0%	1.3m/s
09:00	✕	0%	1.3m/s
10:00	✕	0%	1.2m/s
11:00	✕	0%	1.2m/s
12:00	✕	0%	1.4m/s
13:00	✕	0%	1.5m/s
14:00	✕	0%	1.7m/s
15:00	✕	0%	1.5m/s
16:00	✕	0%	1.4m/s
17:00	✕	0%	1.2m/s
18:00	✕	0%	1.2m/s
19:00	✕	0%	1.3m/s

How to read: colored cells show whether each predicate requirement is met; highlighted rows mean the full rule matched (an opportunity).

What does Frost Probability mean?

Inputs that drive the score

This derived score summarizes multiple raw weather signals. The table below shows the supporting inputs hour by hour, so you can see what's pushing the score up or down.

Time America/New_York	Dew Point °C	Surface Temperature °C	Temperature °C	Time Window	Total Cloud Coverage %	Vapor Pressure Deficit kPa
Wed, Apr 8 Sunrise 07:09 Sunset 20:00
22:00 ☾	2°C	11°C	6.4°C	-	100%	0.26kPa
23:00 ☾	1.6°C	10°C	5.6°C	-	100%	0.22kPa
Thu, Apr 9 Sunrise 07:09 Sunset 20:00
24:00 ☾	1.4°C	9.9°C	5.1°C	-	100%	0.2kPa
01:00 ☾	1.2°C	9.6°C	4.6°C	-	100%	0.18kPa
02:00 ☾	1°C	9.3°C	4.2°C	-	90%	0.17kPa
03:00 ☾	0.6°C	9°C	3.5°C	-	100%	0.15kPa
04:00 ☾	0.2°C	8.7°C	3.1°C	-	99%	0.15kPa
05:00 ☾	-0.3°C	8.4°C	2.7°C	-	66%	0.15kPa
06:00 ☾	-1°C	8.1°C	2.2°C	-	55%	0.15kPa
07:00 ☾	-1.4°C	7.6°C	1.8°C	-	100%	0.15kPa
08:00 ☾	-1.4°C	7.4°C	3.2°C	-	100%	0.21kPa
09:00 ☾	-1.5°C	7.4°C	5.8°C	-	86%	0.37kPa
10:00 ☾	-1°C	7.5°C	9°C	-	86%	0.57kPa
11:00 ☾	0°C	8°C	12°C	-	94%	0.78kPa
12:00 ☾	0.9°C	8.5°C	14°C	-	78%	0.98kPa
13:00 ☾	1.6°C	9.2°C	16°C	-	57%	1.1kPa
14:00 ☾	2°C	9.9°C	17°C	-	100%	1.3kPa
15:00 ☾	2.3°C	10°C	18°C	-	100%	1.3kPa
16:00 ☾	2.6°C	11°C	18°C	-	76%	1.3kPa
17:00 ☾	2.9°C	12°C	18°C	-	10%	1.3kPa
18:00 ☾	3.4°C	12°C	17°C	-	7%	1.1kPa
19:00 ☾	6.4°C	12°C	15°C	-	2%	0.75kPa
20:00 ☾	5.4°C	12°C	10°C	-	0%	0.36kPa
21:00 ☾	4.7°C	12°C	8.5°C	-	0%	0.25kPa
22:00 ☾	3.6°C	12°C	7.3°C	-	0%	0.23kPa
23:00 ☾	2.5°C	11°C	6.3°C	-	0%	0.23kPa
Fri, Apr 10 Sunrise 07:08 Sunset 20:01
24:00 ☾	1.3°C	11°C	5.5°C	-	0%	0.23kPa
01:00 ☾	0.6°C	10°C	5°C	-	0%	0.23kPa
02:00 ☾	0.3°C	10°C	4.7°C	-	0%	0.23kPa
03:00 ☾	0°C	9.7°C	4.3°C	-	0%	0.22kPa
04:00 ☾	-0.3°C	9.4°C	4°C	-	0%	0.22kPa
05:00 ☾	-0.6°C	9.1°C	4°C	-	0%	0.23kPa
06:00 ☾	-1°C	8.7°C	3.8°C	-	0%	0.23kPa
07:00 ☾	-1.1°C	8.4°C	3.7°C	-	0%	0.24kPa
08:00 ☾	-0.1°C	8.2°C	5.7°C	-	0%	0.31kPa
09:00 ☾	0.5°C	8.3°C	9.4°C	-	0%	0.54kPa
10:00 ☾	1.5°C	8.6°C	13°C	-	0%	0.8kPa
11:00 ☾	2.2°C	9.2°C	15°C	-	0%	1kPa
12:00 ☾	2.8°C	9.8°C	17°C	-	0%	1.2kPa
13:00 ☾	3°C	11°C	19°C	-	1%	1.4kPa
14:00 ☾	3.1°C	11°C	20°C	-	4%	1.5kPa
15:00 ☾	3.1°C	12°C	20°C	-	2%	1.6kPa
16:00 ☾	3°C	13°C	20°C	-	4%	1.6kPa
17:00 ☾	3°C	13°C	20°C	-	5%	1.5kPa
18:00 ☾	3.6°C	13°C	19°C	-	4%	1.4kPa
19:00 ☾	7.4°C	14°C	17°C	-	5%	0.86kPa
20:00 ☾	6.7°C	14°C	12°C	-	5%	0.42kPa
21:00 ☾	6.2°C	13°C	10°C	-	34%	0.29kPa
22:00 ☾	5.6°C	13°C	9.5°C	-	95%	0.28kPa
23:00 ☾	5.2°C	13°C	9.2°C	-	78%	0.28kPa
Sat, Apr 11 Sunrise 07:06 Sunset 20:02
24:00 ☾	4.9°C	12°C	8.6°C	-	14%	0.25kPa
01:00 ☾	4.7°C	12°C	8.1°C	-	5%	0.22kPa
02:00 ☾	4.5°C	12°C	7.9°C	-	3%	0.22kPa
03:00 ☾	5.2°C	12°C	11°C	-	3%	0.47kPa
04:00 ☾	5.1°C	11°C	15°C	-	3%	0.82kPa
05:00 ☾	3.9°C	11°C	18°C	-	3%	1.3kPa
06:00 ☾	3.9°C	12°C	20°C	-	18%	1.5kPa
07:00 ☾	3.7°C	13°C	21°C	-	34%	1.6kPa
08:00 ☾	3.5°C	13°C	22°C	-	49%	1.8kPa
09:00 ☾	3.8°C	14°C	21°C	-	34%	1.8kPa
10:00 ☾	4°C	15°C	21°C	-	20%	1.7kPa
11:00 ☾	4.3°C	15°C	21°C	-	5%	1.7kPa
12:00 ☾	6.7°C	15°C	19°C	-	4%	1.1kPa
13:00 ☾	7.9°C	15°C	16°C	-	3%	0.74kPa
14:00 ☾	8.3°C	15°C	13°C	-	1%	0.43kPa
15:00 ☾	8°C	15°C	13°C	-	1%	0.38kPa
16:00 ☾	7.8°C	15°C	12°C	-	0%	0.32kPa
17:00 ☾	7.5°C	15°C	11°C	-	0%	0.28kPa
18:00 ☾	7.2°C	14°C	11°C	-	2%	0.27kPa
19:00 ☾	6.8°C	14°C	10°C	-	3%	0.26kPa
20:00 ☾	6.5°C	14°C	9.8°C	-	5%	0.25kPa
21:00 ☾	6°C	13°C	9.6°C	-	30%	0.26kPa

How to read: these inputs help produce the derived score; they are not requirements by themselves.

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