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Rule Morning Frost

Brevard - Morning Frost - Smoky Mountains & Blue Ridge

Brevard, North Carolina, United States

Frost crystals on calm, cold mornings near sunrise

No opportunities right now
Here’s what usually blocks matches

No Morning Frost opportunities in the next 14 days

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Rule requirements (key thresholds)
Time Window · Sunrise -45m to +90m Frost Probability · ≥ 60.0% Wind Speed · ≤ 1.5m/s

Tip: Scroll down to the 72-hour table to see exactly which condition fails hour by hour.

Most common blockers (next 72 hours)
Frost Probability 100% failing
Time Window 88% failing
Wind Speed 69% failing

Currently

Real-time conditions
Soil Temperature15.2°C
Dew Point4.1°C (low dew point)
Wind Speed1.9m/s (calm conditions)
Cloud Cover73%

Upcoming Opportunities

When all conditions match, PhotoWeather marks an opportunity window.

Times shown in America/New_York

No opportunities in the next 10 days

See the blocker timeline below to understand which conditions are preventing matches.

What this forecast looks for

Plain-language explanation from the rule

This forecast predicts the first hard frost events that enhance the Smokies' autumn landscapes with crystalline textures. We track overnight temperatures, humidity, and elevation to identify when frost will coat mountain meadows, overlooks, and exposed vegetation with sparkling ice crystals at dawn.

The Smokies' elevation range means frost arrives at different times depending on altitude. Clingmans Dome and high overlooks can see frost as early as late September, while valleys may not freeze until late October or November. This staggered frost timing extends the season for frost photography and creates interesting elevation-based opportunities.

What makes Smoky Mountains frost photography exceptional:

  • Mountain meadows - High-elevation grassy areas like Andrews Bald develop heavy frost coverage on clear nights
  • Clingmans Dome conditions - At 6,643 feet, the highest point often experiences hoar frost creating alien landscapes
  • Frozen waterfalls - Later season frost leads to ice formations on the Smokies' countless waterfalls
  • Foliage combination - Early season frost can coincide with peak color, coating colorful leaves with ice crystals

Best frost photography requires clear, calm nights with temperatures dropping into the mid-20s Fahrenheit. High elevation locations experience frost most reliably, while valley locations need colder conditions. Arrive before dawn to catch frost plus first light—frost melts quickly after sunrise. Classic locations include Clingmans Dome observation tower, Grassy patches along Appalachian Trail, and roadside overlooks above 5,000 feet elevation.

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72-hour requirements breakdown

What passed or failed, hour by hour
0matching hours in the next 95 hours
AND logic: all conditions required
Meets requirement
Misses requirement
Time
America/New_York
Time Window
Sunrise -45m to +90m
Frost Probability
≥ 60.0%
Wind Speed
≤ 1.5m/s
Fri, Apr 10
15:000%2.9m/s
16:000%3.2m/s
17:000%3.1m/s
18:000%2.6m/s
19:000%1.1m/s
20:000%0.45m/s
21:000%1.5m/s
22:000%1.6m/s
23:000%1.8m/s
Sat, Apr 11
24:000%1.8m/s
01:000%1.7m/s
02:000%1.9m/s
03:000%2m/s
04:000%2.1m/s
05:000%2.2m/s
06:000%2.2m/s
07:000%2.2m/s
08:000%2m/s
09:000%1.6m/s
10:000%1.7m/s
11:000%1.1m/s
12:000%0.95m/s
13:000%1m/s
14:000%1.4m/s
15:000%1.9m/s
16:000%2m/s
17:000%1.6m/s
18:000%0.56m/s
19:000%0.45m/s
20:000%0.93m/s
21:000%0.68m/s
22:000%0.96m/s
23:000%0.9m/s
Sun, Apr 12
24:000%1.2m/s
01:000%1.2m/s
02:000%1m/s
03:000%0.63m/s
04:000%0.73m/s
05:000%0.82m/s
06:000%0.78m/s
07:000%0.59m/s
08:000%0.11m/s
09:000%0.97m/s
10:000%1.8m/s
11:000%2.4m/s
12:000%3.1m/s
13:000%4.3m/s
14:000%4.6m/s
15:000%4.7m/s
16:000%4.6m/s
17:000%4.7m/s
18:000%4.4m/s
19:000%3.1m/s
20:000%1.6m/s
21:000%1.4m/s
22:000%1.5m/s
23:000%1.8m/s
Mon, Apr 13
24:000%1.9m/s
01:000%1.9m/s
02:000%2.5m/s
03:000%2.4m/s
04:000%2.3m/s
05:000%2.2m/s
06:000%2.3m/s
07:000%2.2m/s
08:000%1.9m/s
09:000%2.8m/s
10:000%3.5m/s
11:000%3.5m/s
12:000%3.7m/s
13:000%3.6m/s
14:000%3.4m/s
15:000%3.3m/s
16:000%3.1m/s
17:000%2.6m/s
18:000%2.7m/s
19:000%2.9m/s
20:000%2.5m/s
21:000%2.1m/s
22:000%1.6m/s
23:000%1.1m/s
Tue, Apr 14
24:000%1.2m/s
01:000%1.3m/s
02:000%1.4m/s
03:000%2.2m/s
04:000%2.9m/s
05:000%3.7m/s
06:000%3.9m/s
07:000%4.2m/s
08:000%4.5m/s
09:000%4.7m/s
10:000%4.9m/s
11:000%5.1m/s
12:000%4.2m/s
13:000%3.4m/s
How to read: colored cells show whether each predicate requirement is met; highlighted rows mean the full rule matched (an opportunity).

What does Frost Probability mean?

Inputs that drive the score

This derived score summarizes multiple raw weather signals. The table below shows the supporting inputs hour by hour, so you can see what's pushing the score up or down.

Time
America/New_York
Dew Point
°C
Surface Temperature
°C
Temperature
°C
Time Window
Total Cloud Coverage
%
Vapor Pressure Deficit
kPa
Sat, Apr 11 Sunrise 07:04 Sunset 20:00
15:00
4.1°C 15°C 24°C - 73% 2.1kPa
16:00
4.5°C 16°C 23°C - 99% 2kPa
17:00
7.3°C 16°C 21°C - 100% 1.4kPa
18:00
8.2°C 16°C 19°C - 97% 1.1kPa
19:00
8.3°C 16°C 18°C - 95% 0.94kPa
20:00
7.9°C 16°C 16°C - 65% 0.81kPa
21:00
8°C 16°C 15°C - 64% 0.65kPa
22:00
8°C 15°C 15°C - 51% 0.62kPa
23:00
7.8°C 15°C 14°C - 7% 0.58kPa
Sun, Apr 12 Sunrise 07:02 Sunset 20:00
24:00
7.3°C 15°C 13°C - 5% 0.5kPa
01:00
6.7°C 15°C 13°C - 4% 0.51kPa
02:00
5.9°C 14°C 12°C - 31% 0.52kPa
03:00
5.9°C 14°C 12°C - 72% 0.47kPa
04:00
6.5°C 14°C 11°C - 25% 0.35kPa
05:00
7.3°C 14°C 10°C - 12% 0.25kPa
06:00
7.7°C 13°C 10°C - 16% 0.2kPa
07:00
8.3°C 13°C 10°C - 5% 0.13kPa
08:00
9.3°C 13°C 12°C - 2% 0.22kPa
09:00
10°C 13°C 15°C - 3% 0.5kPa
10:00
9.5°C 13°C 17°C - 9% 0.77kPa
11:00
9.2°C 14°C 19°C - 100% 1kPa
12:00
8.8°C 14°C 20°C - 5% 1.2kPa
13:00
8.4°C 14°C 21°C - 9% 1.4kPa
14:00
7.8°C 15°C 21°C - 7% 1.5kPa
15:00
7.4°C 15°C 22°C - 13% 1.6kPa
16:00
7°C 16°C 22°C - 58% 1.6kPa
17:00
6.7°C 16°C 21°C - 33% 1.5kPa
18:00
7.2°C 16°C 20°C - 18% 1.3kPa
19:00
8.4°C 16°C 19°C - 36% 1kPa
20:00
8.2°C 16°C 15°C - 100% 0.57kPa
21:00
7.7°C 16°C 14°C - 5% 0.54kPa
22:00
7.4°C 16°C 13°C - 23% 0.5kPa
23:00
7.5°C 15°C 13°C - 56% 0.48kPa
Mon, Apr 13 Sunrise 07:01 Sunset 20:01
24:00
7.5°C 15°C 13°C - 31% 0.43kPa
01:00
7.5°C 15°C 12°C - 100% 0.39kPa
02:00
7.6°C 15°C 12°C - 100% 0.32kPa
03:00
7.9°C 14°C 11°C - 100% 0.27kPa
04:00
8.3°C 14°C 12°C - 100% 0.28kPa
05:00
8.4°C 14°C 11°C - 6% 0.18kPa
06:00
8.4°C 14°C 9.9°C - 100% 0.11kPa
07:00
8.5°C 13°C 9.9°C - 100% 0.11kPa
08:00
8.9°C 13°C 12°C - 100% 0.22kPa
09:00
8.9°C 13°C 15°C - 100% 0.51kPa
10:00
8.6°C 13°C 16°C - 100% 0.74kPa
11:00
8.1°C 14°C 18°C - 100% 0.96kPa
12:00
7.4°C 14°C 19°C - 100% 1.2kPa
13:00
7.1°C 14°C 20°C - 100% 1.3kPa
14:00
6.8°C 14°C 20°C - 100% 1.3kPa
15:00
6.6°C 15°C 20°C - 100% 1.4kPa
16:00
6.1°C 15°C 20°C - 100% 1.4kPa
17:00
6.9°C 15°C 19°C - 100% 1.3kPa
18:00
7.3°C 15°C 19°C - 100% 1.1kPa
19:00
8.4°C 15°C 17°C - 100% 0.86kPa
20:00
8.3°C 15°C 16°C - 100% 0.67kPa
21:00
8.9°C 16°C 15°C - 75% 0.53kPa
22:00
9.3°C 16°C 14°C - 51% 0.41kPa
23:00
9.6°C 16°C 13°C - 26% 0.3kPa
Tue, Apr 14 Sunrise 07:00 Sunset 20:01
24:00
9.8°C 16°C 13°C - 19% 0.33kPa
01:00
10°C 16°C 14°C - 12% 0.37kPa
02:00
10°C 15°C 15°C - 5% 0.4kPa
03:00
11°C 16°C 17°C - 7% 0.67kPa
04:00
11°C 16°C 20°C - 8% 1kPa
05:00
11°C 16°C 23°C - 10% 1.5kPa
06:00
11°C 17°C 24°C - 10% 1.8kPa
07:00
11°C 17°C 26°C - 10% 2kPa
08:00
11°C 18°C 28°C - 10% 2.4kPa
09:00
11°C 18°C 28°C - 40% 2.4kPa
10:00
11°C 19°C 28°C - 69% 2.5kPa
11:00
11°C 19°C 28°C - 99% 2.5kPa
12:00
12°C 19°C 26°C - 99% 1.9kPa
13:00
12°C 20°C 23°C - 99% 1.4kPa
14:00
12°C 20°C 21°C - 100% 1kPa
How to read: these inputs help produce the derived score; they are not requirements by themselves.

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