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Rule Morning Frost

Boone - Morning Frost - Smoky Mountains & Blue Ridge

Boone, North Carolina, United States

Frost crystals on calm, cold mornings near sunrise

No opportunities right now
Here’s what usually blocks matches

No Morning Frost opportunities in the next 14 days

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Rule requirements (key thresholds)
Time Window · Sunrise -45m to +90m Frost Probability · ≥ 60.0% Wind Speed · ≤ 1.5m/s

Tip: Scroll down to the 72-hour table to see exactly which condition fails hour by hour.

Most common blockers (next 72 hours)
Wind Speed 92% failing
Time Window 88% failing
Frost Probability 75% failing

Currently

Real-time conditions
Frost Probability
22%
Soil Temperature4.1°C
Dew Point-6.4°C (low dew point)
Wind Speed8.0m/s (moderate winds)
Cloud Cover82%

Upcoming Opportunities

When all conditions match, PhotoWeather marks an opportunity window.

Times shown in America/New_York

No opportunities in the next 10 days

See the blocker timeline below to understand which conditions are preventing matches.

What this forecast looks for

Plain-language explanation from the rule

This forecast predicts the first hard frost events that enhance the Smokies' autumn landscapes with crystalline textures. We track overnight temperatures, humidity, and elevation to identify when frost will coat mountain meadows, overlooks, and exposed vegetation with sparkling ice crystals at dawn.

The Smokies' elevation range means frost arrives at different times depending on altitude. Clingmans Dome and high overlooks can see frost as early as late September, while valleys may not freeze until late October or November. This staggered frost timing extends the season for frost photography and creates interesting elevation-based opportunities.

What makes Smoky Mountains frost photography exceptional:

  • Mountain meadows - High-elevation grassy areas like Andrews Bald develop heavy frost coverage on clear nights
  • Clingmans Dome conditions - At 6,643 feet, the highest point often experiences hoar frost creating alien landscapes
  • Frozen waterfalls - Later season frost leads to ice formations on the Smokies' countless waterfalls
  • Foliage combination - Early season frost can coincide with peak color, coating colorful leaves with ice crystals

Best frost photography requires clear, calm nights with temperatures dropping into the mid-20s Fahrenheit. High elevation locations experience frost most reliably, while valley locations need colder conditions. Arrive before dawn to catch frost plus first light—frost melts quickly after sunrise. Classic locations include Clingmans Dome observation tower, Grassy patches along Appalachian Trail, and roadside overlooks above 5,000 feet elevation.

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72-hour requirements breakdown

What passed or failed, hour by hour
0matching hours in the next 95 hours
AND logic: all conditions required
Meets requirement
Misses requirement
Time
America/New_York
Time Window
Sunrise -45m to +90m
Frost Probability
≥ 60.0%
Wind Speed
≤ 1.5m/s
Sat, Feb 21
14:00✕0%0.62m/s
15:00✕0%1.5m/s
16:00✕0%1.1m/s
17:00✕0%0.84m/s
18:00✕0%1.7m/s
19:00✕0%2m/s
20:00✕0%0.62m/s
21:00✕0%1.2m/s
22:00✕0%1m/s
23:00✕0%2.2m/s
Sun, Feb 22
24:00✕0%2.4m/s
01:00✕0%3.5m/s
02:00✕0%3.6m/s
03:00✕1%3.5m/s
04:00✕1%4m/s
05:00✕0.8%4.3m/s
06:00✓0.8%4.2m/s
07:00✓1.2%4.5m/s
08:00✓11%3.8m/s
09:00✕13%4.7m/s
10:00✕13%5m/s
11:00✕11%5.6m/s
12:00✕22%6.5m/s
13:00✕23%7.4m/s
14:00✕22%8m/s
15:00✕22%8.1m/s
16:00✕13%7.6m/s
17:00✕13%7m/s
18:00✕13%7.2m/s
19:00✕13%8.1m/s
20:00✕13%9.2m/s
21:00✕13%9.8m/s
22:00✕13%9.7m/s
23:00✕13%8.7m/s
Mon, Feb 23
24:00✕9%7.3m/s
01:00✕13%7m/s
02:00✕13%6.8m/s
03:00✕9%6.7m/s
04:00✕16%6.9m/s
05:00✕20%7.2m/s
06:00✓16%8m/s
07:00✓16%8.3m/s
08:00✓20%8.5m/s
09:00✕35%8.9m/s
10:00✕35%9m/s
11:00✕35%8.8m/s
12:00✕35%8.7m/s
13:00✕43%8.4m/s
14:00✕43%8.2m/s
15:00✕35%8m/s
16:00✕35%7.5m/s
17:00✕35%7.2m/s
18:00✕31%6.9m/s
19:00✕31%6.8m/s
20:00✕31%7m/s
21:00✕31%7m/s
22:00✕31%6.5m/s
23:00✕31%6m/s
Tue, Feb 24
24:00✕31%5.9m/s
01:00✕33%5.4m/s
02:00✕33%4.7m/s
03:00✕35%4.1m/s
04:00✕35%3m/s
05:00✕36%2.9m/s
06:00✓37%2.5m/s
07:00✓47%2.6m/s
08:00✓47%2.4m/s
09:00✕51%2.5m/s
10:00✕59%2.5m/s
11:00✕62%2.2m/s
12:00✕62%2.2m/s
13:00✕62%2.1m/s
14:00✕71%2.1m/s
15:00✕71%2.4m/s
16:00✕67%1.8m/s
17:00✕64%1.4m/s
18:00✕70%0.76m/s
19:00✕66%0.39m/s
20:00✕62%0.76m/s
21:00✕65%1.1m/s
22:00✕73%1.5m/s
23:00✕73%1.6m/s
Wed, Feb 25
24:00✕71%1.7m/s
01:00✕71%1.9m/s
02:00✕71%2.3m/s
03:00✕69%2.8m/s
04:00✕67%3.3m/s
05:00✕55%4.1m/s
06:00✓35%4.8m/s
07:00✓26%5.6m/s
08:00✓24%5.1m/s
09:00✕24%4.6m/s
10:00✕30%4.1m/s
11:00✕3.2%3m/s
12:00✕3.2%1.9m/s
How to read: colored cells show whether each predicate requirement is met; highlighted rows mean the full rule matched (an opportunity).

What does Frost Probability mean?

Inputs that drive the score

This derived score summarizes multiple raw weather signals. The table below shows the supporting inputs hour by hour, so you can see what's pushing the score up or down.

Time
America/New_York
Dew Point
°C
Surface Temperature
°C
Temperature
°C
Time Window
Total Cloud Coverage
%
Vapor Pressure Deficit
kPa
Sun, Feb 22 Sunrise 07:06 Sunset 18:14
14:00
-6.4°C 4.1°C -2.8°C - 82% 0.12kPa
15:00
-6.8°C 3.9°C -3.7°C - 74% 0.1kPa
16:00
-7°C 3.7°C -4.7°C - 84% 0.07kPa
17:00
-6.9°C 3.6°C -5.4°C - 98% 0.04kPa
18:00
-7.9°C 3.6°C -6.8°C - 98% 0.03kPa
19:00 ☾
-8.5°C 3.6°C -7.5°C - 96% 0.03kPa
20:00 ☾
-9.3°C 3.6°C -8.1°C - 93% 0.03kPa
21:00 ☾
-9.8°C 3.6°C -8.7°C - 89% 0.03kPa
22:00 ☾
-10°C 3.6°C -9°C - 94% 0.03kPa
23:00 ☾
-10°C 3.6°C -9.3°C - 98% 0.02kPa
Mon, Feb 23 Sunrise 07:04 Sunset 18:15
24:00 ☾
-11°C 3.6°C -9.6°C - 100% 0.02kPa
01:00 ☾
-11°C 3.6°C -9.7°C - 100% 0.03kPa
02:00 ☾
-11°C 3.4°C -9.8°C - 100% 0.03kPa
03:00 ☾
-11°C 3.1°C -9.9°C - 99% 0.02kPa
04:00 ☾
-11°C 2.9°C -10°C - 99% 0.02kPa
05:00 ☾
-11°C 2.6°C -10°C - 99% 0.02kPa
06:00 ☾
-11°C 2.5°C -10°C - 98% 0.02kPa
07:00 ☾
-11°C 2.3°C -10°C - 97% 0.02kPa
08:00
-11°C 2.2°C -10°C - 96% 0.02kPa
09:00
-11°C 2°C -9.3°C - 96% 0.03kPa
10:00
-9.9°C 1.9°C -8.1°C - 96% 0.04kPa
11:00
-9.3°C 1.8°C -7.1°C - 97% 0.06kPa
12:00
-9.2°C 1.7°C -6.4°C - 87% 0.08kPa
13:00
-8.9°C 1.7°C -5.7°C - 96% 0.09kPa
14:00
-8.6°C 1.7°C -5.4°C - 97% 0.09kPa
15:00
-8.1°C 1.7°C -5.4°C - 97% 0.08kPa
16:00
-7.6°C 1.6°C -5.7°C - 100% 0.05kPa
17:00
-7.7°C 1.6°C -6.3°C - 98% 0.04kPa
18:00
-8°C 1.5°C -7.1°C - 98% 0.03kPa
19:00 ☾
-8.6°C 1.4°C -7.7°C - 98% 0.02kPa
20:00 ☾
-9°C 1.4°C -8.1°C - 99% 0.02kPa
21:00 ☾
-9.3°C 1.3°C -8.4°C - 93% 0.02kPa
22:00 ☾
-9.6°C 1.3°C -8.9°C - 83% 0.02kPa
23:00 ☾
-9.9°C 1.2°C -9.1°C - 98% 0.02kPa
Tue, Feb 24 Sunrise 07:03 Sunset 18:16
24:00 ☾
-10°C 1.2°C -9.4°C - 99% 0.02kPa
01:00 ☾
-10°C 1.2°C -9.6°C - 99% 0.02kPa
02:00 ☾
-11°C 1.1°C -10°C - 100% 0.01kPa
03:00 ☾
-11°C 1.1°C -10°C - 97% 0.01kPa
04:00 ☾
-11°C 1.1°C -11°C - 92% 0.01kPa
05:00 ☾
-12°C 1.1°C -12°C - 78% 0kPa
06:00 ☾
-12°C 1.1°C -12°C - 95% 0kPa
07:00 ☾
-12°C 0.99°C -12°C - 96% 0kPa
08:00
-11°C 0.85°C -10°C - 100% 0.02kPa
09:00
-10°C 0.77°C -8.2°C - 100% 0.05kPa
10:00
-9.7°C 0.74°C -6.3°C - 100% 0.09kPa
11:00
-9°C 0.74°C -4.2°C - 100% 0.14kPa
12:00
-8.4°C 0.74°C -2.5°C - 100% 0.18kPa
13:00
-7.6°C 0.74°C -1.7°C - 100% 0.2kPa
14:00
-6.6°C 0.74°C -0.63°C - 55% 0.21kPa
15:00
-5.9°C 0.75°C 0.18°C - 98% 0.23kPa
16:00
-5.4°C 0.76°C 0.29°C - 100% 0.22kPa
17:00
-4.7°C 0.76°C 0.006°C - 88% 0.18kPa
18:00
-4.6°C 0.77°C -3.3°C - 5% 0.04kPa
19:00 ☾
-7.5°C 0.76°C -6.7°C - 5% 0.02kPa
20:00 ☾
-7°C 0.66°C -4.6°C - 37% 0.07kPa
21:00 ☾
-6.8°C 0.56°C -2.5°C - 68% 0.14kPa
22:00 ☾
-6.9°C 0.46°C -0.45°C - 100% 0.23kPa
23:00 ☾
-6.8°C 0.46°C -0.44°C - 100% 0.22kPa
Wed, Feb 25 Sunrise 07:02 Sunset 18:17
24:00 ☾
-6.6°C 0.47°C -0.43°C - 100% 0.22kPa
01:00 ☾
-6.5°C 0.47°C -0.43°C - 100% 0.22kPa
02:00 ☾
-5°C 0.51°C 2.1°C - 98% 0.29kPa
03:00 ☾
-3.6°C 0.55°C 4.7°C - 96% 0.38kPa
04:00 ☾
-2.3°C 0.59°C 7.2°C - 94% 0.5kPa
05:00 ☾
-0.5°C 1.4°C 9.6°C - 96% 0.6kPa
06:00 ☾
1.3°C 2.3°C 12°C - 98% 0.72kPa
07:00 ☾
3°C 3.1°C 14°C - 100% 0.87kPa
08:00
3.8°C 4.1°C 14°C - 100% 0.84kPa
09:00
4.6°C 5°C 15°C - 100% 0.81kPa
10:00
5.3°C 5.9°C 15°C - 100% 0.79kPa
11:00
5.6°C 6.2°C 12°C - 100% 0.53kPa
12:00
5.4°C 6.5°C 10°C - 100% 0.33kPa
13:00
5°C 6.8°C 7.7°C - 100% 0.18kPa
How to read: these inputs help produce the derived score; they are not requirements by themselves.

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