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Rule Morning Frost

Asheville - Morning Frost - Smoky Mountains & Blue Ridge

Asheville, North Carolina, United States

Frost crystals on calm, cold mornings near sunrise

No opportunities right now
Here’s what usually blocks matches

No Morning Frost opportunities in the next 14 days

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Rule requirements (key thresholds)
Time Window · Sunrise -45m to +90m Frost Probability · ≥ 60.0% Wind Speed · ≤ 1.5m/s

Tip: Scroll down to the 72-hour table to see exactly which condition fails hour by hour.

Most common blockers (next 72 hours)
Frost Probability 100% failing
Time Window 88% failing
Wind Speed 28% failing

Currently

Real-time conditions
Frost Probability
0%
Soil Temperature10.2°C
Dew Point-0.1°C (low dew point)
Wind Speed1.3m/s (calm conditions)
Cloud Cover100%

Upcoming Opportunities

When all conditions match, PhotoWeather marks an opportunity window.

Times shown in America/New_York

No opportunities in the next 10 days

See the blocker timeline below to understand which conditions are preventing matches.

What this forecast looks for

Plain-language explanation from the rule

This forecast predicts the first hard frost events that enhance the Smokies' autumn landscapes with crystalline textures. We track overnight temperatures, humidity, and elevation to identify when frost will coat mountain meadows, overlooks, and exposed vegetation with sparkling ice crystals at dawn.

The Smokies' elevation range means frost arrives at different times depending on altitude. Clingmans Dome and high overlooks can see frost as early as late September, while valleys may not freeze until late October or November. This staggered frost timing extends the season for frost photography and creates interesting elevation-based opportunities.

What makes Smoky Mountains frost photography exceptional:

  • Mountain meadows - High-elevation grassy areas like Andrews Bald develop heavy frost coverage on clear nights
  • Clingmans Dome conditions - At 6,643 feet, the highest point often experiences hoar frost creating alien landscapes
  • Frozen waterfalls - Later season frost leads to ice formations on the Smokies' countless waterfalls
  • Foliage combination - Early season frost can coincide with peak color, coating colorful leaves with ice crystals

Best frost photography requires clear, calm nights with temperatures dropping into the mid-20s Fahrenheit. High elevation locations experience frost most reliably, while valley locations need colder conditions. Arrive before dawn to catch frost plus first light—frost melts quickly after sunrise. Classic locations include Clingmans Dome observation tower, Grassy patches along Appalachian Trail, and roadside overlooks above 5,000 feet elevation.

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72-hour requirements breakdown

What passed or failed, hour by hour
0matching hours in the next 92 hours
AND logic: all conditions required
Meets requirement
Misses requirement
Time
America/New_York
Time Window
Sunrise -45m to +90m
Frost Probability
≥ 60.0%
Wind Speed
≤ 1.5m/s
Wed, Apr 8
24:00✕0%1.8m/s
01:00✕0%1.6m/s
02:00✕0%1.2m/s
03:00✕0%1m/s
04:00✕0%1m/s
05:00✕0%1.3m/s
06:00✓0%1.6m/s
07:00✓0%1.5m/s
08:00✓0%1.3m/s
09:00✕3.4%1.8m/s
10:00✕0%2.7m/s
11:00✕0%3.1m/s
12:00✕0%3.2m/s
13:00✕0%3.4m/s
14:00✕0%3.6m/s
15:00✕0%3.7m/s
16:00✕0%3.6m/s
17:00✕0%3.6m/s
18:00✕0%3.5m/s
19:00✕0%3m/s
20:00✕0%2.2m/s
21:00✕0%1.6m/s
22:00✕0%1.3m/s
23:00✕0%1.1m/s
Thu, Apr 9
24:00✕0%0.97m/s
01:00✕0%0.91m/s
02:00✕0%1.2m/s
03:00✕0%1.2m/s
04:00✕0%1.2m/s
05:00✕0%1.1m/s
06:00✓3.3%1.2m/s
07:00✓3%1m/s
08:00✓3.7%0.59m/s
09:00✕3.8%0.76m/s
10:00✕3.2%1.2m/s
11:00✕3.1%1.8m/s
12:00✕0%2.3m/s
13:00✕0%2.7m/s
14:00✕0%2.8m/s
15:00✕0%2.9m/s
16:00✕0%3m/s
17:00✕0%3.1m/s
18:00✕0%3.3m/s
19:00✕0%2.8m/s
20:00✕0%2m/s
21:00✕0%1.6m/s
22:00✕0%1.2m/s
23:00✕0%0.89m/s
Fri, Apr 10
24:00✕0%0.45m/s
01:00✕0%0.26m/s
02:00✕0%0.24m/s
03:00✕0%0.41m/s
04:00✕0%0.41m/s
05:00✕0%0.75m/s
06:00✓0%0.27m/s
07:00✓5%0.56m/s
08:00✓5%0.84m/s
09:00✕4.8%0.6m/s
10:00✕0%0.86m/s
11:00✕0%0.6m/s
12:00✕0%0.49m/s
13:00✕0%0.35m/s
14:00✕0%0.36m/s
15:00✕0%0.24m/s
16:00✕0%0.14m/s
17:00✕0%0.31m/s
18:00✕0%0.86m/s
19:00✕0%1.7m/s
20:00✕0%1.2m/s
21:00✕0%0.47m/s
22:00✕0%0.53m/s
23:00✕0%0.9m/s
Sat, Apr 11
24:00✕0%1.2m/s
01:00✕0%1.3m/s
02:00✕0%1.4m/s
03:00✕0%1.7m/s
04:00✕0%1.9m/s
05:00✕0%2.1m/s
06:00✓0%1.9m/s
07:00✓0%1.8m/s
08:00✓0%1.6m/s
09:00✕0%1.5m/s
10:00✕0%1.3m/s
11:00✕0%1.2m/s
12:00✕0%1.2m/s
13:00✕0%1.2m/s
14:00✕0%1.2m/s
15:00✕0%0.92m/s
16:00✕0%0.64m/s
17:00✕0%0.35m/s
18:00✕0%0.33m/s
19:00✕0%0.3m/s
How to read: colored cells show whether each predicate requirement is met; highlighted rows mean the full rule matched (an opportunity).

What does Frost Probability mean?

Inputs that drive the score

This derived score summarizes multiple raw weather signals. The table below shows the supporting inputs hour by hour, so you can see what's pushing the score up or down.

Time
America/New_York
Dew Point
°C
Surface Temperature
°C
Temperature
°C
Time Window
Total Cloud Coverage
%
Vapor Pressure Deficit
kPa
Wed, Apr 8 Sunrise 07:05 Sunset 19:58
22:00 ☾
-0.1°C 10°C 5.6°C - 100% 0.3kPa
23:00 ☾
-0.3°C 10°C 5.1°C - 100% 0.28kPa
Thu, Apr 9 Sunrise 07:05 Sunset 19:58
24:00 ☾
-0.5°C 9.7°C 4.6°C - 100% 0.26kPa
01:00 ☾
-0.8°C 9.4°C 4.2°C - 64% 0.25kPa
02:00 ☾
-1.1°C 9.1°C 3.5°C - 77% 0.22kPa
03:00 ☾
-1.4°C 8.8°C 2.8°C - 72% 0.2kPa
04:00 ☾
-1.6°C 8.5°C 2.5°C - 49% 0.19kPa
05:00 ☾
-1.9°C 8.1°C 1.8°C - 20% 0.17kPa
06:00 ☾
-2.1°C 7.9°C 1.4°C - 58% 0.15kPa
07:00 ☾
-2.3°C 7.5°C 1°C - 74% 0.14kPa
08:00
-2.2°C 7.3°C 2.9°C - 64% 0.23kPa
09:00
-2.5°C 7.3°C 6.3°C - 82% 0.44kPa
10:00
-2.6°C 7.5°C 9.1°C - 65% 0.65kPa
11:00
-2.5°C 7.9°C 11°C - 59% 0.83kPa
12:00
-2.3°C 8.3°C 13°C - 92% 1kPa
13:00
-2.1°C 8.8°C 15°C - 95% 1.1kPa
14:00
-1.8°C 9.4°C 16°C - 72% 1.3kPa
15:00
-1.4°C 9.9°C 17°C - 74% 1.3kPa
16:00
-1.1°C 10°C 17°C - 100% 1.3kPa
17:00
-0.9°C 11°C 16°C - 65% 1.3kPa
18:00
-0.7°C 11°C 15°C - 88% 1.1kPa
19:00
0.9°C 11°C 13°C - 75% 0.85kPa
20:00 ☾
0.5°C 11°C 8.9°C - 5% 0.51kPa
21:00 ☾
-0.2°C 11°C 7.1°C - 0% 0.4kPa
22:00 ☾
-0.6°C 11°C 6.1°C - 0% 0.36kPa
23:00 ☾
-1.1°C 10°C 5.4°C - 0% 0.33kPa
Fri, Apr 10 Sunrise 07:04 Sunset 19:59
24:00 ☾
-1.4°C 10°C 5°C - 0% 0.32kPa
01:00 ☾
-1.7°C 9.8°C 4.7°C - 0% 0.31kPa
02:00 ☾
-2°C 9.5°C 4.3°C - 0% 0.3kPa
03:00 ☾
-2°C 9.2°C 4°C - 0% 0.29kPa
04:00 ☾
-2.2°C 8.9°C 3.8°C - 0% 0.28kPa
05:00 ☾
-2.4°C 8.6°C 3.5°C - 0% 0.27kPa
06:00 ☾
-2.5°C 8.3°C 3.2°C - 0% 0.26kPa
07:00 ☾
-2.6°C 8°C 3.1°C - 0% 0.26kPa
08:00
-1.7°C 7.8°C 5.2°C - 0% 0.34kPa
09:00
-1.3°C 7.9°C 9.4°C - 0% 0.62kPa
10:00
-1°C 8.3°C 13°C - 0% 0.94kPa
11:00
-0.3°C 8.9°C 17°C - 0% 1.3kPa
12:00
0.6°C 9.7°C 19°C - 0% 1.6kPa
13:00
1.4°C 11°C 21°C - 0% 1.8kPa
14:00
1.7°C 11°C 22°C - 0% 2kPa
15:00
1.6°C 12°C 23°C - 0% 2kPa
16:00
1.5°C 13°C 22°C - 3% 2kPa
17:00
1.8°C 14°C 22°C - 1% 1.9kPa
18:00
2.8°C 14°C 21°C - 4% 1.7kPa
19:00
6.4°C 14°C 18°C - 5% 1.1kPa
20:00 ☾
5.3°C 14°C 13°C - 5% 0.57kPa
21:00 ☾
4.9°C 14°C 11°C - 5% 0.43kPa
22:00 ☾
4.8°C 14°C 10°C - 85% 0.36kPa
23:00 ☾
5.1°C 13°C 9.5°C - 87% 0.31kPa
Sat, Apr 11 Sunrise 07:02 Sunset 19:59
24:00 ☾
5.8°C 13°C 9.1°C - 88% 0.23kPa
01:00 ☾
6.4°C 13°C 8.7°C - 100% 0.16kPa
02:00 ☾
6.9°C 13°C 8.4°C - 83% 0.11kPa
03:00 ☾
7.2°C 12°C 12°C - 55% 0.38kPa
04:00 ☾
6.7°C 12°C 16°C - 28% 0.78kPa
05:00 ☾
4.7°C 12°C 19°C - 0% 1.4kPa
06:00 ☾
4.5°C 12°C 21°C - 1% 1.6kPa
07:00 ☾
4.1°C 13°C 22°C - 2% 1.8kPa
08:00
3.6°C 14°C 23°C - 4% 2.1kPa
09:00
3.5°C 14°C 23°C - 36% 2.1kPa
10:00
3.4°C 15°C 23°C - 68% 2.1kPa
11:00
3.2°C 15°C 23°C - 100% 2.1kPa
12:00
6°C 16°C 20°C - 68% 1.5kPa
13:00
7.3°C 16°C 18°C - 37% 0.99kPa
14:00
7.7°C 16°C 15°C - 5% 0.63kPa
15:00
7.4°C 16°C 14°C - 3% 0.55kPa
16:00
7°C 15°C 13°C - 2% 0.48kPa
17:00
6.7°C 15°C 12°C - 0% 0.42kPa
18:00
6.5°C 15°C 12°C - 25% 0.39kPa
19:00
6.3°C 15°C 11°C - 50% 0.37kPa
20:00
6.1°C 14°C 11°C - 75% 0.34kPa
21:00
6°C 14°C 10°C - 56% 0.33kPa
How to read: these inputs help produce the derived score; they are not requirements by themselves.

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