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No opportunity windows are predicted in the next 10 days. Conditions can change quickly, so check back for updates.

More Morning Frost in Smoky Mountains & Blue Ridge

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Rule Morning Frost

Asheville - Morning Frost - Smoky Mountains & Blue Ridge

Q: What conditions does Morning Frost look for?

Time Window: Sunrise -45m to +90m. Frost Probability: ≥ 60.0%. Wind Speed: ≤ 1.5m/s

Asheville, North Carolina, United States

Frost crystals on calm, cold mornings near sunrise

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Here’s what usually blocks matches

No Morning Frost opportunities in the next 14 days

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Rule requirements (key thresholds)

Time Window · Sunrise -45m to +90m Frost Probability · ≥ 60.0% Wind Speed · ≤ 1.5m/s

Tip: Scroll down to the 72-hour table to see exactly which condition fails hour by hour.

Most common blockers (next 72 hours)

Time Window 88% failing

Wind Speed 75% failing

Frost Probability 58% failing

Currently

Real-time conditions

Frost Probability

30%

Soil Temperature5.3°C

Dew Point-9.0°C (low dew point)

Wind Speed11.6m/s (moderate winds)

Cloud Cover24%

Upcoming Opportunities

When all conditions match, PhotoWeather marks an opportunity window.

Times shown in America/New_York

No opportunities in the next 10 days

See the blocker timeline below to understand which conditions are preventing matches.

What this forecast looks for

Plain-language explanation from the rule

This forecast predicts the first hard frost events that enhance the Smokies' autumn landscapes with crystalline textures. We track overnight temperatures, humidity, and elevation to identify when frost will coat mountain meadows, overlooks, and exposed vegetation with sparkling ice crystals at dawn.

The Smokies' elevation range means frost arrives at different times depending on altitude. Clingmans Dome and high overlooks can see frost as early as late September, while valleys may not freeze until late October or November. This staggered frost timing extends the season for frost photography and creates interesting elevation-based opportunities.

What makes Smoky Mountains frost photography exceptional:

Mountain meadows - High-elevation grassy areas like Andrews Bald develop heavy frost coverage on clear nights
Clingmans Dome conditions - At 6,643 feet, the highest point often experiences hoar frost creating alien landscapes
Frozen waterfalls - Later season frost leads to ice formations on the Smokies' countless waterfalls
Foliage combination - Early season frost can coincide with peak color, coating colorful leaves with ice crystals

Best frost photography requires clear, calm nights with temperatures dropping into the mid-20s Fahrenheit. High elevation locations experience frost most reliably, while valley locations need colder conditions. Arrive before dawn to catch frost plus first light—frost melts quickly after sunrise. Classic locations include Clingmans Dome observation tower, Grassy patches along Appalachian Trail, and roadside overlooks above 5,000 feet elevation.

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72-hour requirements breakdown

What passed or failed, hour by hour

0matching hours in the next 95 hours

AND logic: all conditions required

Meets requirement

Misses requirement

Time America/New_York	Time Window Sunrise -45m to +90m	Frost Probability ≥ 60.0%	Wind Speed ≤ 1.5m/s
Sat, Feb 21
20:00	✕	0%	0.46m/s
21:00	✕	0%	0.86m/s
22:00	✕	0%	1m/s
23:00	✕	0%	1.9m/s
Sun, Feb 22
24:00	✕	0%	4.9m/s
01:00	✕	0%	5.3m/s
02:00	✕	0%	6m/s
03:00	✕	0%	5.8m/s
04:00	✕	0%	6.2m/s
05:00	✕	0%	7.1m/s
06:00	✓	0%	7.2m/s
07:00	✓	0%	6.5m/s
08:00	✓	3.2%	7m/s
09:00	✕	2.5%	7.6m/s
10:00	✕	3.7%	7.4m/s
11:00	✕	3%	7.6m/s
12:00	✕	3%	7.9m/s
13:00	✕	3%	8.1m/s
14:00	✕	31%	8m/s
15:00	✕	32%	8.1m/s
16:00	✕	42%	8.4m/s
17:00	✕	33%	8.8m/s
18:00	✕	33%	8.8m/s
19:00	✕	30%	9.6m/s
20:00	✕	30%	11m/s
21:00	✕	30%	12m/s
22:00	✕	30%	11m/s
23:00	✕	23%	10m/s
Mon, Feb 23
24:00	✕	19%	8.8m/s
01:00	✕	19%	8.5m/s
02:00	✕	19%	8.4m/s
03:00	✕	19%	8.2m/s
04:00	✕	19%	8.3m/s
05:00	✕	21%	8.1m/s
06:00	✓	21%	8.4m/s
07:00	✓	28%	8.9m/s
08:00	✓	29%	8.9m/s
09:00	✕	47%	8.9m/s
10:00	✕	51%	9.1m/s
11:00	✕	56%	8.9m/s
12:00	✕	55%	8.9m/s
13:00	✕	55%	8.8m/s
14:00	✕	55%	8.6m/s
15:00	✕	55%	8.2m/s
16:00	✕	59%	7.9m/s
17:00	✕	59%	7.8m/s
18:00	✕	54%	7.8m/s
19:00	✕	60%	8.1m/s
20:00	✕	60%	8.1m/s
21:00	✕	63%	8.4m/s
22:00	✕	67%	8.3m/s
23:00	✕	60%	8.1m/s
Tue, Feb 24
24:00	✕	56%	7.1m/s
01:00	✕	53%	6.4m/s
02:00	✕	58%	5.3m/s
03:00	✕	58%	4.5m/s
04:00	✕	61%	3.8m/s
05:00	✕	56%	3.6m/s
06:00	✓	56%	3.2m/s
07:00	✓	54%	2.6m/s
08:00	✓	62%	2.3m/s
09:00	✕	69%	2m/s
10:00	✕	74%	2.1m/s
11:00	✕	72%	2.3m/s
12:00	✕	70%	2.1m/s
13:00	✕	68%	1.6m/s
14:00	✕	65%	1.3m/s
15:00	✕	80%	1.1m/s
16:00	✕	80%	1.6m/s
17:00	✕	82%	1.8m/s
18:00	✕	77%	1.2m/s
19:00	✕	76%	0.97m/s
20:00	✕	76%	0.89m/s
21:00	✕	78%	0.59m/s
22:00	✕	78%	0.49m/s
23:00	✕	78%	0.15m/s
Wed, Feb 25
24:00	✕	78%	0.18m/s
01:00	✕	78%	0.27m/s
02:00	✕	78%	0.71m/s
03:00	✕	76%	1.2m/s
04:00	✕	74%	1.6m/s
05:00	✕	72%	2.5m/s
06:00	✓	64%	3.4m/s
07:00	✓	62%	4.2m/s
08:00	✓	54%	3.9m/s
09:00	✕	39%	3.6m/s
10:00	✕	35%	3.2m/s
11:00	✕	35%	2.5m/s
12:00	✕	22%	1.8m/s
13:00	✕	19%	1.1m/s
14:00	✕	19%	0.83m/s
15:00	✕	21%	0.52m/s
16:00	✕	21%	0.21m/s
17:00	✕	17%	0.58m/s
18:00	✕	15%	0.95m/s

How to read: colored cells show whether each predicate requirement is met; highlighted rows mean the full rule matched (an opportunity).

What does Frost Probability mean?

Inputs that drive the score

This derived score summarizes multiple raw weather signals. The table below shows the supporting inputs hour by hour, so you can see what's pushing the score up or down.

Time America/New_York	Dew Point °C	Surface Temperature °C	Temperature °C	Time Window	Total Cloud Coverage %	Vapor Pressure Deficit kPa
Sun, Feb 22 Sunrise 07:07 Sunset 18:19
21:00 ☾	-9°C	5.3°C	-5.5°C	-	24%	0.1kPa
22:00 ☾	-9.5°C	5.3°C	-5.9°C	-	22%	0.1kPa
23:00 ☾	-9.8°C	5.3°C	-6.2°C	-	55%	0.1kPa
Mon, Feb 23 Sunrise 07:07 Sunset 18:19
24:00 ☾	-9.9°C	5.3°C	-6.4°C	-	97%	0.09kPa
01:00 ☾	-10°C	5.3°C	-6.6°C	-	91%	0.09kPa
02:00 ☾	-10°C	5.2°C	-6.7°C	-	94%	0.09kPa
03:00 ☾	-11°C	4.7°C	-6.9°C	-	100%	0.09kPa
04:00 ☾	-11°C	4.1°C	-7.1°C	-	100%	0.09kPa
05:00 ☾	-11°C	3.6°C	-7.2°C	-	91%	0.09kPa
06:00 ☾	-11°C	3.1°C	-7.4°C	-	92%	0.09kPa
07:00 ☾	-11°C	2.6°C	-7.6°C	-	86%	0.09kPa
08:00	-12°C	2°C	-7.5°C	-	72%	0.1kPa
09:00	-12°C	1.6°C	-6.2°C	-	71%	0.13kPa
10:00	-11°C	1.4°C	-4.7°C	-	66%	0.17kPa
11:00	-11°C	1.3°C	-3.3°C	-	80%	0.21kPa
12:00	-11°C	1.3°C	-2.5°C	-	100%	0.24kPa
13:00	-10°C	1.3°C	-2°C	-	98%	0.24kPa
14:00	-10°C	1.3°C	-1.4°C	-	89%	0.27kPa
15:00	-11°C	1.3°C	-1.5°C	-	83%	0.28kPa
16:00	-10°C	1.3°C	-1.7°C	-	50%	0.26kPa
17:00	-9.9°C	1.3°C	-2.4°C	-	51%	0.22kPa
18:00	-9.9°C	1.1°C	-3.8°C	-	46%	0.17kPa
19:00 ☾	-10°C	0.89°C	-4.5°C	-	60%	0.15kPa
20:00 ☾	-10°C	0.76°C	-4.8°C	-	44%	0.14kPa
21:00 ☾	-9.8°C	0.63°C	-5.1°C	-	34%	0.13kPa
22:00 ☾	-9.9°C	0.5°C	-5.5°C	-	24%	0.12kPa
23:00 ☾	-10°C	0.35°C	-5.8°C	-	51%	0.11kPa
Tue, Feb 24 Sunrise 07:06 Sunset 18:20
24:00 ☾	-10°C	0.2°C	-6.1°C	-	100%	0.11kPa
01:00 ☾	-10°C	0.01°C	-6.4°C	-	100%	0.1kPa
02:00 ☾	-10°C	-0.18°C	-6.6°C	-	91%	0.1kPa
03:00 ☾	-10°C	-0.34°C	-6.9°C	-	82%	0.09kPa
04:00 ☾	-10°C	-0.52°C	-7.2°C	-	73%	0.08kPa
05:00 ☾	-10°C	-0.74°C	-7.5°C	-	57%	0.07kPa
06:00 ☾	-11°C	-0.96°C	-7.8°C	-	48%	0.07kPa
07:00 ☾	-11°C	-1.2°C	-8.2°C	-	100%	0.06kPa
08:00	-11°C	-1.5°C	-7.2°C	-	100%	0.09kPa
09:00	-12°C	-1.6°C	-5.7°C	-	100%	0.15kPa
10:00	-12°C	-1.6°C	-3.4°C	-	100%	0.24kPa
11:00	-13°C	-1.6°C	-0.94°C	-	100%	0.34kPa
12:00	-13°C	-1.6°C	1.7°C	-	100%	0.46kPa
13:00	-12°C	-1.6°C	3.6°C	-	100%	0.56kPa
14:00	-12°C	-1.6°C	5°C	-	84%	0.62kPa
15:00	-11°C	-1.5°C	6.4°C	-	5%	0.69kPa
16:00	-10°C	-1.2°C	6.6°C	-	6%	0.69kPa
17:00	-8.6°C	-1°C	6°C	-	5%	0.61kPa
18:00	-7.8°C	-0.81°C	1.7°C	-	61%	0.35kPa
19:00 ☾	-8.4°C	-0.73°C	-1.1°C	-	91%	0.24kPa
20:00 ☾	-8.4°C	-0.72°C	-1.5°C	-	100%	0.22kPa
21:00 ☾	-8.3°C	-0.71°C	-1.4°C	-	100%	0.22kPa
22:00 ☾	-8.2°C	-0.66°C	-1.1°C	-	100%	0.23kPa
23:00 ☾	-8.2°C	-0.59°C	-0.86°C	-	100%	0.24kPa
Wed, Feb 25 Sunrise 07:05 Sunset 18:21
24:00 ☾	-8.5°C	-0.57°C	-1.3°C	-	100%	0.23kPa
01:00 ☾	-8.7°C	-0.56°C	-1.5°C	-	100%	0.23kPa
02:00 ☾	-6.3°C	-0.49°C	1.5°C	-	96%	0.3kPa
03:00 ☾	-3.9°C	-0.42°C	4.4°C	-	91%	0.38kPa
04:00 ☾	-1.6°C	-0.35°C	7.4°C	-	87%	0.48kPa
05:00 ☾	0.1°C	-0.15°C	9.4°C	-	90%	0.56kPa
06:00 ☾	1.8°C	0.04°C	11°C	-	93%	0.65kPa
07:00 ☾	3.5°C	0.24°C	13°C	-	97%	0.75kPa
08:00	4°C	1.2°C	13°C	-	98%	0.69kPa
09:00	4.6°C	2.2°C	13°C	-	99%	0.63kPa
10:00	5.1°C	3.1°C	13°C	-	100%	0.58kPa
11:00	5.3°C	3.5°C	10°C	-	100%	0.36kPa
12:00	5.1°C	3.9°C	8.1°C	-	100%	0.2kPa
13:00	4.7°C	4.3°C	5.9°C	-	100%	0.07kPa
14:00	4.8°C	4.4°C	5.9°C	-	100%	0.07kPa
15:00	4.8°C	4.5°C	6°C	-	100%	0.07kPa
16:00	4.9°C	4.6°C	6°C	-	100%	0.07kPa
17:00	5.2°C	4.8°C	6.1°C	-	100%	0.06kPa
18:00	5.5°C	4.9°C	6.2°C	-	100%	0.04kPa
19:00 ☾	5.9°C	5°C	6.4°C	-	100%	0.03kPa
20:00 ☾	6.2°C	5.1°C	6.6°C	-	100%	0.03kPa

How to read: these inputs help produce the derived score; they are not requirements by themselves.

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