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More Morning Frost in New England, USA
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Rule Morning Frost

Stowe - Morning Frost - New England, USA

Stowe, Vermont, United States

Frost crystals on calm, cold mornings near sunrise

No opportunities right now
Here’s what usually blocks matches

No Morning Frost opportunities in the next 14 days

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Rule requirements (key thresholds)
Time Window · Sunrise -45m to +90m Frost Probability · ≥ 60.0% Wind Speed · ≤ 1.5m/s

Tip: Scroll down to the 72-hour table to see exactly which condition fails hour by hour.

Most common blockers (next 72 hours)
Time Window 88% failing
Wind Speed 82% failing
Frost Probability 69% failing

Currently

Real-time conditions
Frost Probability
77%
Soil Temperature-0.3°C
Dew Point-7.5°C (low dew point)
Wind Speed2.3m/s (calm conditions)
Cloud Cover5%

Upcoming Opportunities

When all conditions match, PhotoWeather marks an opportunity window.

Times shown in America/New_York

No opportunities in the next 10 days

See the blocker timeline below to understand which conditions are preventing matches.

What this forecast looks for

Plain-language explanation from the rule

This forecast predicts the first frost events that transform New England's fall foliage into crystalline masterpieces. We track overnight temperatures, dewpoint, and wind conditions to identify when frost will coat leaves, grasses, and stone walls with sparkling ice crystals.

The first hard frost of autumn is a cherished event in New England—it triggers the final phase of fall color and creates magical dawn conditions where ice crystals catch golden light. The region's iconic stone walls, covered bridges, and sugar maples take on new dimension when dusted with frost.

What makes New England frost photography exceptional:

  • Foliage enhancement - Frost crystals on red and orange leaves create otherworldly textures and highlights
  • Stone wall character - New England's ubiquitous dry-stacked stone walls gain definition and drama when frost-covered
  • Sugar maple groves - Vermont and New Hampshire maple stands combine brilliant color with frost textures
  • Historic elements - Colonial-era buildings, covered bridges, and farmsteads gain timeless quality under frost

Best conditions occur on clear, calm nights in October when temperatures drop to 28-32°F. Frost melts quickly after sunrise, so arrive before dawn for frost plus golden hour light. Protected valleys and hollows accumulate frost more heavily than exposed hilltops.

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72-hour requirements breakdown

What passed or failed, hour by hour
0matching hours in the next 74 hours
AND logic: all conditions required
Meets requirement
Misses requirement
Time
America/New_York
Time Window
Sunrise -45m to +90m
Frost Probability
≥ 60.0%
Wind Speed
≤ 1.5m/s
Thu, Apr 9
24:00✕77%2m/s
01:00✕80%2.1m/s
02:00✕80%2.2m/s
03:00✕80%2.2m/s
04:00✕77%2.3m/s
05:00✓77%2.3m/s
06:00✓77%2.3m/s
07:00✓80%2.2m/s
08:00✕89%2.7m/s
09:00✕87%3.2m/s
10:00✕83%3.5m/s
11:00✕80%3.9m/s
12:00✕72%4.2m/s
13:00✕72%4.6m/s
14:00✕70%5m/s
15:00✕61%5m/s
16:00✕72%4.4m/s
17:00✕66%4.1m/s
18:00✕82%4m/s
19:00✕76%3.2m/s
20:00✕52%2.8m/s
21:00✕52%2.9m/s
22:00✕60%2.9m/s
23:00✕60%2.9m/s
Fri, Apr 10
24:00✕73%2.7m/s
01:00✕41%2.7m/s
02:00✕44%2m/s
03:00✕55%2.3m/s
04:00✕44%2.4m/s
05:00✓38%2.3m/s
06:00✓47%2m/s
07:00✓62%1.8m/s
08:00✕44%1.8m/s
09:00✕52%2.1m/s
10:00✕57%2m/s
11:00✕42%1.9m/s
12:00✕31%1.1m/s
13:00✕15%2.1m/s
14:00✕21%1.2m/s
15:00✕21%1m/s
16:00✕20%1.8m/s
17:00✕11%3.1m/s
18:00✕13%2.5m/s
19:00✕15%1.7m/s
20:00✕13%1.8m/s
21:00✕15%2.3m/s
22:00✕15%2.1m/s
23:00✕15%2.2m/s
Sat, Apr 11
24:00✕15%2.4m/s
01:00✕15%2.1m/s
02:00✕22%2.2m/s
03:00✕22%2.2m/s
04:00✕22%2.3m/s
05:00✓22%2.5m/s
06:00✓22%2.6m/s
07:00✓22%2.7m/s
08:00✕35%3.3m/s
09:00✕27%3.6m/s
10:00✕35%3.8m/s
11:00✕44%4.1m/s
12:00✕41%3.3m/s
13:00✕44%2.5m/s
14:00✕46%1.7m/s
15:00✕43%1.6m/s
16:00✕43%1.5m/s
17:00✕43%1.4m/s
18:00✕43%1.2m/s
19:00✕43%1.1m/s
20:00✕43%0.88m/s
21:00✕35%0.98m/s
22:00✕29%1.1m/s
23:00✕28%1.2m/s
Sun, Apr 12
24:00✕39%1.3m/s
01:00✕39%1.4m/s
How to read: colored cells show whether each predicate requirement is met; highlighted rows mean the full rule matched (an opportunity).

What does Frost Probability mean?

Inputs that drive the score

This derived score summarizes multiple raw weather signals. The table below shows the supporting inputs hour by hour, so you can see what's pushing the score up or down.

Time
America/New_York
Dew Point
°C
Surface Temperature
°C
Temperature
°C
Time Window
Total Cloud Coverage
%
Vapor Pressure Deficit
kPa
Thu, Apr 9 Sunrise 06:17 Sunset 19:27
04:00 ☾
-7.5°C -0.29°C -4.1°C - 5% 0.1kPa
05:00 ☾
-7.3°C -0.35°C -4.1°C - 5% 0.1kPa
06:00 ☾
-7.2°C -0.35°C -4.2°C - 5% 0.09kPa
07:00
-7°C -0.35°C -3.4°C - 4% 0.11kPa
08:00
-6.8°C -0.35°C 0.14°C - 5% 0.25kPa
09:00
-6.1°C -0.31°C 3°C - 5% 0.37kPa
10:00
-5.5°C -0.33°C 5.6°C - 5% 0.51kPa
11:00
-5.3°C -0.33°C 8.2°C - 6% 0.68kPa
12:00
-5.2°C -0.33°C 10°C - 5% 0.84kPa
13:00
-5°C -0.23°C 12°C - 5% 0.97kPa
14:00
-4.4°C -0.23°C 13°C - 5% 1kPa
15:00
-3.1°C -0.15°C 13°C - 54% 1kPa
16:00
-1.2°C -0.12°C 12°C - 14% 0.88kPa
17:00
0.3°C -0.07°C 11°C - 78% 0.71kPa
18:00
0.3°C 0.05°C 9.3°C - 4% 0.55kPa
19:00
0.5°C 0.12°C 6°C - 20% 0.3kPa
20:00 ☾
-0.1°C 0.2°C 2.9°C - 100% 0.14kPa
21:00 ☾
0.3°C 0.37°C 3°C - 100% 0.13kPa
22:00 ☾
0.1°C 0.56°C 3.3°C - 100% 0.16kPa
23:00 ☾
0°C 0.78°C 3.4°C - 100% 0.17kPa
Fri, Apr 10 Sunrise 06:15 Sunset 19:29
24:00 ☾
0°C 0.97°C 3.3°C - 12% 0.16kPa
01:00 ☾
-0.5°C 1°C 1.6°C - 84% 0.09kPa
02:00 ☾
-0.1°C 1.1°C 2.3°C - 97% 0.11kPa
03:00 ☾
0.2°C 1.2°C 2.5°C - 16% 0.11kPa
04:00 ☾
-0.1°C 1.2°C 0.81°C - 34% 0.04kPa
05:00 ☾
0°C 1.1°C 0.88°C - 67% 0.04kPa
06:00 ☾
-0.2°C 0.97°C 0.57°C - 82% 0.04kPa
07:00
0.1°C 0.97°C 1.2°C - 23% 0.05kPa
08:00
1.7°C 1.1°C 4.5°C - 100% 0.15kPa
09:00
2.7°C 1.4°C 6.1°C - 100% 0.19kPa
10:00
3.9°C 1.9°C 7.9°C - 100% 0.26kPa
11:00
4.7°C 2.5°C 9.3°C - 100% 0.31kPa
12:00
5.7°C 3°C 8.5°C - 100% 0.19kPa
13:00
5.9°C 3.1°C 6.6°C - 100% 0.05kPa
14:00
6.6°C 3.5°C 7.7°C - 100% 0.08kPa
15:00
6.8°C 3.7°C 8°C - 100% 0.08kPa
16:00
7.8°C 4.1°C 9.6°C - 100% 0.14kPa
17:00
6.2°C 4.3°C 6.5°C - 100% 0.02kPa
18:00
4.1°C 4.3°C 4.3°C - 100% 0.01kPa
19:00
3.3°C 4.2°C 3.5°C - 100% 0.01kPa
20:00 ☾
2.9°C 4°C 3.1°C - 100% 0.01kPa
21:00 ☾
2.6°C 3.9°C 2.8°C - 100% 0.01kPa
22:00 ☾
2.2°C 3.7°C 2.5°C - 100% 0.01kPa
23:00 ☾
1.6°C 3.5°C 1.8°C - 100% 0.01kPa
Sat, Apr 11 Sunrise 06:13 Sunset 19:30
24:00 ☾
1.3°C 3.4°C 1.4°C - 100% 0.01kPa
01:00 ☾
1.1°C 3.1°C 1.1°C - 100% 0kPa
02:00 ☾
0.7°C 2.9°C 0.75°C - 100% 0kPa
03:00 ☾
0.6°C 2.8°C 0.65°C - 100% 0kPa
04:00 ☾
0.5°C 2.6°C 0.58°C - 100% 0.01kPa
05:00 ☾
0.2°C 2.5°C 0.4°C - 100% 0.01kPa
06:00 ☾
-0.7°C 2.3°C -0.05°C - 96% 0.03kPa
07:00
-1.2°C 2°C -0.21°C - 100% 0.04kPa
08:00
-0.7°C 1.9°C 0.29°C - 100% 0.04kPa
09:00
-1.3°C 2.1°C 1.3°C - 99% 0.12kPa
10:00
-2.2°C 2.2°C 2.4°C - 99% 0.2kPa
11:00
-3.3°C 2.4°C 3.4°C - 99% 0.3kPa
12:00
-3.2°C 2.4°C 2°C - 68% 0.22kPa
13:00
-3.3°C 2.4°C 0.61°C - 36% 0.16kPa
14:00
-3.5°C 2.4°C -0.78°C - 5% 0.11kPa
15:00
-3.7°C 2.4°C -1.1°C - 5% 0.1kPa
16:00
-3.9°C 2.3°C -1.5°C - 5% 0.09kPa
17:00
-4°C 2.3°C -1.8°C - 5% 0.08kPa
18:00
-4.2°C 2.3°C -2°C - 5% 0.08kPa
19:00
-4.3°C 2.4°C -2.1°C - 5% 0.08kPa
20:00 ☾
-4.5°C 2.4°C -2.3°C - 4% 0.08kPa
21:00 ☾
-4.5°C 2.4°C -2.3°C - 36% 0.08kPa
22:00 ☾
-4.5°C 2.4°C -2.3°C - 68% 0.08kPa
23:00 ☾
-4.4°C 2.4°C -2.4°C - 100% 0.07kPa
Sun, Apr 12 Sunrise 06:12 Sunset 19:31
24:00 ☾
-4.2°C 2.3°C -1.1°C - 100% 0.11kPa
01:00 ☾
-4.1°C 2.3°C 0.1°C - 100% 0.16kPa
02:00 ☾
-4°C 2.2°C 1.3°C - 100% 0.22kPa
03:00 ☾
-4°C 2.2°C 2.9°C - 100% 0.3kPa
How to read: these inputs help produce the derived score; they are not requirements by themselves.

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