Rule
Morning Frost
North Conway - Morning Frost - New England, USA
North Conway, New Hampshire, United States
Frost crystals on calm, cold mornings near sunrise
Currently
Real-time conditionsSoil Temperature-2.6°C
Dew Point-4.9°C (low dew point)
Wind Speed2.5m/s (calm conditions)
Cloud Cover100%
Upcoming Opportunities
When all conditions match, PhotoWeather marks an opportunity window.
Times shown in America/New_York
Next opportunity
Moderate Frost at Sunrise
North Conway
Thu, Feb 26 · 06:00–07:56 · 2h window
Low confidence
30%
❄️Frost Probability69-71%
Soil Temperature: -3.7°C
Dew Point: -3.8°C (low dew point)
Wind Speed: 0.6m/s (calm conditions)
Cloud Cover: 100%
Light Frost at Dawn
North Conway
Sun, Mar 1 · 05:36–06:00
❄️Frost Probability:60%
Medium
Light Frost at Sunrise
North Conway
Sun, Mar 1 · 06:00–07:00
❄️Frost Probability:60%
Low
What this forecast looks for
Plain-language explanation from the ruleThis forecast predicts the first frost events that transform New England's fall foliage into crystalline masterpieces. We track overnight temperatures, dewpoint, and wind conditions to identify when frost will coat leaves, grasses, and stone walls with sparkling ice crystals.
The first hard frost of autumn is a cherished event in New England—it triggers the final phase of fall color and creates magical dawn conditions where ice crystals catch golden light. The region's iconic stone walls, covered bridges, and sugar maples take on new dimension when dusted with frost.
What makes New England frost photography exceptional:
- Foliage enhancement - Frost crystals on red and orange leaves create otherworldly textures and highlights
- Stone wall character - New England's ubiquitous dry-stacked stone walls gain definition and drama when frost-covered
- Sugar maple groves - Vermont and New Hampshire maple stands combine brilliant color with frost textures
- Historic elements - Colonial-era buildings, covered bridges, and farmsteads gain timeless quality under frost
Best conditions occur on clear, calm nights in October when temperatures drop to 28-32°F. Frost melts quickly after sunrise, so arrive before dawn for frost plus golden hour light. Protected valleys and hollows accumulate frost more heavily than exposed hilltops.
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72-hour requirements breakdown
What passed or failed, hour by hour0matching hours in the next 95 hours
AND logic: all conditions required
Meets requirement
Misses requirement
Time America/New_York | Time Window Sunrise -45m to +90m | Frost Probability ≥ 60.0% | Wind Speed ≤ 1.5m/s |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, Feb 21 | |||
| 20:00 | ✕ | 53% | 1.8m/s |
| 21:00 | ✕ | 54% | 1.6m/s |
| 22:00 | ✕ | 61% | 1.5m/s |
| 23:00 | ✕ | 61% | 1.5m/s |
| Sun, Feb 22 | |||
| 24:00 | ✕ | 65% | 1.5m/s |
| 01:00 | ✕ | 65% | 1.7m/s |
| 02:00 | ✕ | 63% | 1.8m/s |
| 03:00 | ✕ | 63% | 1.8m/s |
| 04:00 | ✕ | 59% | 1.9m/s |
| 05:00 | ✓ | 52% | 2m/s |
| 06:00 | ✓ | 63% | 1.8m/s |
| 07:00 | ✓ | 58% | 1.7m/s |
| 08:00 | ✓ | 73% | 1.1m/s |
| 09:00 | ✕ | 73% | 1.1m/s |
| 10:00 | ✕ | 62% | 1.6m/s |
| 11:00 | ✕ | 57% | 1.9m/s |
| 12:00 | ✕ | 56% | 2m/s |
| 13:00 | ✕ | 56% | 1.8m/s |
| 14:00 | ✕ | 67% | 1.7m/s |
| 15:00 | ✕ | 58% | 1.7m/s |
| 16:00 | ✕ | 56% | 1.8m/s |
| 17:00 | ✕ | 58% | 1.5m/s |
| 18:00 | ✕ | 54% | 1.7m/s |
| 19:00 | ✕ | 52% | 1.8m/s |
| 20:00 | ✕ | 52% | 1.8m/s |
| 21:00 | ✕ | 52% | 2.5m/s |
| 22:00 | ✕ | 50% | 3m/s |
| 23:00 | ✕ | 50% | 2.9m/s |
| Mon, Feb 23 | |||
| 24:00 | ✕ | 50% | 3.4m/s |
| 01:00 | ✕ | 54% | 3.6m/s |
| 02:00 | ✕ | 54% | 3.4m/s |
| 03:00 | ✕ | 50% | 3.2m/s |
| 04:00 | ✕ | 50% | 4m/s |
| 05:00 | ✓ | 52% | 4.7m/s |
| 06:00 | ✓ | 52% | 4.8m/s |
| 07:00 | ✓ | 60% | 4.7m/s |
| 08:00 | ✓ | 60% | 4.6m/s |
| 09:00 | ✕ | 63% | 4.8m/s |
| 10:00 | ✕ | 63% | 5.1m/s |
| 11:00 | ✕ | 63% | 5.1m/s |
| 12:00 | ✕ | 60% | 4.6m/s |
| 13:00 | ✕ | 60% | 4.7m/s |
| 14:00 | ✕ | 63% | 4.5m/s |
| 15:00 | ✕ | 63% | 4.4m/s |
| 16:00 | ✕ | 54% | 4.2m/s |
| 17:00 | ✕ | 52% | 4.3m/s |
| 18:00 | ✕ | 54% | 4m/s |
| 19:00 | ✕ | 54% | 3.7m/s |
| 20:00 | ✕ | 54% | 3.6m/s |
| 21:00 | ✕ | 54% | 3.5m/s |
| 22:00 | ✕ | 54% | 3.6m/s |
| 23:00 | ✕ | 54% | 3.7m/s |
| Tue, Feb 24 | |||
| 24:00 | ✕ | 54% | 3.9m/s |
| 01:00 | ✕ | 54% | 3.8m/s |
| 02:00 | ✕ | 54% | 3.5m/s |
| 03:00 | ✕ | 54% | 3.3m/s |
| 04:00 | ✕ | 54% | 3m/s |
| 05:00 | ✓ | 54% | 2.9m/s |
| 06:00 | ✓ | 56% | 2.5m/s |
| 07:00 | ✓ | 56% | 2.4m/s |
| 08:00 | ✕ | 64% | 2.4m/s |
| 09:00 | ✕ | 64% | 2.6m/s |
| 10:00 | ✕ | 67% | 2.6m/s |
| 11:00 | ✕ | 67% | 2.4m/s |
| 12:00 | ✕ | 67% | 2.4m/s |
| 13:00 | ✕ | 71% | 2.6m/s |
| 14:00 | ✕ | 67% | 2.8m/s |
| 15:00 | ✕ | 67% | 2.7m/s |
| 16:00 | ✕ | 78% | 2.6m/s |
| 17:00 | ✕ | 71% | 2.5m/s |
| 18:00 | ✕ | 69% | 2.8m/s |
| 19:00 | ✕ | 63% | 2.8m/s |
| 20:00 | ✕ | 71% | 2.7m/s |
| 21:00 | ✕ | 56% | 2.5m/s |
| 22:00 | ✕ | 71% | 2.3m/s |
| 23:00 | ✕ | 71% | 2.2m/s |
| Wed, Feb 25 | |||
| 24:00 | ✕ | 71% | 2m/s |
| 01:00 | ✕ | 56% | 1.9m/s |
| 02:00 | ✕ | 55% | 1.5m/s |
| 03:00 | ✕ | 54% | 1.1m/s |
| 04:00 | ✕ | 56% | 0.7m/s |
| 05:00 | ✓ | 54% | 0.85m/s |
| 06:00 | ✓ | 54% | 1m/s |
| 07:00 | ✓ | 54% | 1.2m/s |
| 08:00 | ✕ | 58% | 0.87m/s |
| 09:00 | ✕ | 60% | 0.57m/s |
| 10:00 | ✕ | 60% | 0.27m/s |
| 11:00 | ✕ | 60% | 0.49m/s |
| 12:00 | ✕ | 56% | 0.7m/s |
| 13:00 | ✕ | 54% | 0.92m/s |
| 14:00 | ✕ | 54% | 0.89m/s |
| 15:00 | ✕ | 54% | 0.85m/s |
| 16:00 | ✕ | 54% | 0.82m/s |
| 17:00 | ✕ | 55% | 1.3m/s |
| 18:00 | ✕ | 56% | 1.9m/s |
How to read: colored cells show whether each predicate requirement is met; highlighted rows mean the full rule matched (an opportunity).
What does Frost Probability mean?
Inputs that drive the scoreThis derived score summarizes multiple raw weather signals. The table below shows the supporting inputs hour by hour, so you can see what's pushing the score up or down.
| Time America/New_York | Dew Point °C | Surface Temperature °C | Temperature °C | Time Window | Total Cloud Coverage % | Vapor Pressure Deficit kPa |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, Feb 22
Sunrise 06:31
Sunset 17:24 | ||||||
| 21:00 ☾ | -4.9°C | -2.6°C | -4.5°C | - | 100% | 0.01kPa |
| 22:00 ☾ | -4.7°C | -2.6°C | -4.2°C | - | 100% | 0.02kPa |
| 23:00 ☾ | -5°C | -2.6°C | -4.3°C | - | 100% | 0.02kPa |
| Mon, Feb 23
Sunrise 06:31
Sunset 17:24 | ||||||
| 24:00 ☾ | -5.4°C | -2.6°C | -4.5°C | - | 100% | 0.03kPa |
| 01:00 ☾ | -6.4°C | -2.6°C | -5°C | - | 100% | 0.04kPa |
| 02:00 ☾ | -6.5°C | -2.7°C | -5.4°C | - | 100% | 0.03kPa |
| 03:00 ☾ | -6.3°C | -2.7°C | -5.4°C | - | 100% | 0.02kPa |
| 04:00 ☾ | -6.5°C | -2.8°C | -5.6°C | - | 100% | 0.03kPa |
| 05:00 ☾ | -7.5°C | -2.8°C | -6°C | - | 100% | 0.04kPa |
| 06:00 ☾ | -9.2°C | -2.8°C | -6.6°C | - | 100% | 0.07kPa |
| 07:00 | -10°C | -2.9°C | -6.8°C | - | 100% | 0.09kPa |
| 08:00 | -11°C | -3°C | -6.5°C | - | 100% | 0.1kPa |
| 09:00 | -11°C | -3.1°C | -5.8°C | - | 100% | 0.12kPa |
| 10:00 | -11°C | -3.1°C | -5.3°C | - | 100% | 0.14kPa |
| 11:00 | -11°C | -3.1°C | -5.1°C | - | 100% | 0.15kPa |
| 12:00 | -8.8°C | -3.1°C | -5.2°C | - | 100% | 0.1kPa |
| 13:00 | -7.8°C | -3.1°C | -4.6°C | - | 100% | 0.1kPa |
| 14:00 | -7.7°C | -3.1°C | -3.8°C | - | 100% | 0.12kPa |
| 15:00 | -7.6°C | -3°C | -4°C | - | 100% | 0.11kPa |
| 16:00 | -8.1°C | -3°C | -5.2°C | - | 100% | 0.08kPa |
| 17:00 | -8.3°C | -3°C | -5.6°C | - | 100% | 0.08kPa |
| 18:00 ☾ | -8.7°C | -3°C | -5.8°C | - | 100% | 0.08kPa |
| 19:00 ☾ | -8.9°C | -3°C | -6.3°C | - | 100% | 0.07kPa |
| 20:00 ☾ | -9.6°C | -3.1°C | -7.2°C | - | 100% | 0.06kPa |
| 21:00 ☾ | -9.6°C | -3.1°C | -7.4°C | - | 100% | 0.06kPa |
| 22:00 ☾ | -9.8°C | -3.2°C | -7.6°C | - | 100% | 0.05kPa |
| 23:00 ☾ | -10°C | -3.3°C | -7.9°C | - | 100% | 0.05kPa |
| Tue, Feb 24
Sunrise 06:29
Sunset 17:26 | ||||||
| 24:00 ☾ | -10°C | -3.4°C | -8°C | - | 100% | 0.05kPa |
| 01:00 ☾ | -11°C | -3.4°C | -8.6°C | - | 100% | 0.06kPa |
| 02:00 ☾ | -11°C | -3.5°C | -9°C | - | 100% | 0.05kPa |
| 03:00 ☾ | -12°C | -3.6°C | -9.3°C | - | 100% | 0.05kPa |
| 04:00 ☾ | -12°C | -3.8°C | -9.5°C | - | 100% | 0.05kPa |
| 05:00 ☾ | -11°C | -3.9°C | -8.9°C | - | 100% | 0.05kPa |
| 06:00 ☾ | -11°C | -3.9°C | -8.8°C | - | 100% | 0.05kPa |
| 07:00 | -11°C | -4°C | -8.7°C | - | 100% | 0.05kPa |
| 08:00 | -11°C | -4°C | -8°C | - | 100% | 0.08kPa |
| 09:00 | -12°C | -4.1°C | -7.4°C | - | 91% | 0.1kPa |
| 10:00 | -11°C | -4°C | -6.4°C | - | 96% | 0.12kPa |
| 11:00 | -11°C | -3.9°C | -5.5°C | - | 100% | 0.14kPa |
| 12:00 | -11°C | -3.8°C | -4.9°C | - | 100% | 0.16kPa |
| 13:00 | -11°C | -3.6°C | -4.6°C | - | 100% | 0.16kPa |
| 14:00 | -11°C | -3.4°C | -4.9°C | - | 100% | 0.16kPa |
| 15:00 | -11°C | -3.3°C | -5.4°C | - | 94% | 0.15kPa |
| 16:00 | -11°C | -3.3°C | -6.6°C | - | 14% | 0.12kPa |
| 17:00 | -12°C | -3.3°C | -8.7°C | - | 4% | 0.07kPa |
| 18:00 ☾ | -13°C | -3.3°C | -12°C | - | 5% | 0.03kPa |
| 19:00 ☾ | -15°C | -3.5°C | -13°C | - | 40% | 0.02kPa |
| 20:00 ☾ | -15°C | -3.8°C | -14°C | - | 5% | 0.02kPa |
| 21:00 ☾ | -16°C | -4°C | -14°C | - | 100% | 0.02kPa |
| 22:00 ☾ | -16°C | -4.3°C | -14°C | - | 7% | 0.02kPa |
| 23:00 ☾ | -16°C | -4.5°C | -15°C | - | 5% | 0.02kPa |
| Wed, Feb 25
Sunrise 06:28
Sunset 17:27 | ||||||
| 24:00 ☾ | -16°C | -4.7°C | -15°C | - | 5% | 0.02kPa |
| 01:00 ☾ | -17°C | -5°C | -16°C | - | 46% | 0.01kPa |
| 02:00 ☾ | -14°C | -4.8°C | -13°C | - | 64% | 0.02kPa |
| 03:00 ☾ | -12°C | -4.5°C | -11°C | - | 82% | 0.02kPa |
| 04:00 ☾ | -9.4°C | -4.3°C | -8.4°C | - | 100% | 0.02kPa |
| 05:00 ☾ | -8.1°C | -4.3°C | -7.1°C | - | 100% | 0.03kPa |
| 06:00 ☾ | -6.8°C | -4.3°C | -5.9°C | - | 100% | 0.03kPa |
| 07:00 | -5.5°C | -4.3°C | -4.6°C | - | 100% | 0.03kPa |
| 08:00 | -4.9°C | -4.2°C | -3.8°C | - | 100% | 0.04kPa |
| 09:00 | -4.2°C | -4.1°C | -3°C | - | 100% | 0.04kPa |
| 10:00 | -3.6°C | -4°C | -2.2°C | - | 100% | 0.05kPa |
| 11:00 | -4.7°C | -4°C | -3.6°C | - | 100% | 0.03kPa |
| 12:00 | -5.7°C | -3.9°C | -5°C | - | 100% | 0.02kPa |
| 13:00 | -6.7°C | -3.9°C | -6.4°C | - | 100% | 0.01kPa |
| 14:00 | -6.9°C | -3.8°C | -6.6°C | - | 100% | 0.01kPa |
| 15:00 | -7.1°C | -3.8°C | -6.9°C | - | 100% | 0.01kPa |
| 16:00 | -7.3°C | -3.8°C | -7.1°C | - | 100% | 0.01kPa |
| 17:00 | -7.6°C | -3.8°C | -7.2°C | - | 70% | 0.01kPa |
| 18:00 ☾ | -8°C | -3.8°C | -7.3°C | - | 41% | 0.02kPa |
| 19:00 ☾ | -8.3°C | -3.8°C | -7.4°C | - | 11% | 0.02kPa |
| 20:00 ☾ | -8.8°C | -3.8°C | -8°C | - | 10% | 0.02kPa |
How to read: these inputs help produce the derived score; they are not requirements by themselves.
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