Rule
Morning Frost
Killington - Morning Frost - New England, USA
Killington, Vermont, United States
Frost crystals on calm, cold mornings near sunrise
Currently
Real-time conditionsSoil Temperature-0.2°C
Dew Point-9.4°C (low dew point)
Wind Speed1.9m/s (calm conditions)
Cloud Cover0%
Upcoming Opportunities
When all conditions match, PhotoWeather marks an opportunity window.
Times shown in America/New_York
Next opportunity
Moderate Frost (radiative) at Dawn
Killington
Tomorrow · 05:33–06:00 · 1h window
Medium confidence
57%
❄️Frost Probability82%
Soil Temperature: -0.1°C
Dew Point: -8.3°C (low dew point)
Wind Speed: 1.5m/s (calm conditions)
Cloud Cover: 0%
What this forecast looks for
Plain-language explanation from the ruleThis forecast predicts the first frost events that transform New England's fall foliage into crystalline masterpieces. We track overnight temperatures, dewpoint, and wind conditions to identify when frost will coat leaves, grasses, and stone walls with sparkling ice crystals.
The first hard frost of autumn is a cherished event in New England—it triggers the final phase of fall color and creates magical dawn conditions where ice crystals catch golden light. The region's iconic stone walls, covered bridges, and sugar maples take on new dimension when dusted with frost.
What makes New England frost photography exceptional:
- Foliage enhancement - Frost crystals on red and orange leaves create otherworldly textures and highlights
- Stone wall character - New England's ubiquitous dry-stacked stone walls gain definition and drama when frost-covered
- Sugar maple groves - Vermont and New Hampshire maple stands combine brilliant color with frost textures
- Historic elements - Colonial-era buildings, covered bridges, and farmsteads gain timeless quality under frost
Best conditions occur on clear, calm nights in October when temperatures drop to 28-32°F. Frost melts quickly after sunrise, so arrive before dawn for frost plus golden hour light. Protected valleys and hollows accumulate frost more heavily than exposed hilltops.
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72-hour requirements breakdown
What passed or failed, hour by hourAND logic: all conditions required
Meets requirement
Misses requirement
Time America/New_York | Time Window Sunrise -45m to +90m | Frost Probability ≥ 60.0% | Wind Speed ≤ 1.5m/s |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wed, Apr 8 | |||
| 24:00 | ✕ | 65% | 3.2m/s |
| 01:00 | ✕ | 65% | 3m/s |
| 02:00 | ✕ | 67% | 2.3m/s |
| 03:00 | ✕ | 81% | 1.9m/s |
| 04:00 | ✕ | 82% | 1.5m/s |
| 05:00 | ✓ | 82% | 1.4m/s |
| 06:00 | ✓ | 82% | 1.2m/s |
| 07:00 | ✓ | 82% | 1.1m/s |
| 08:00 | ✕ | 91% | 1.2m/s |
| 09:00 | ✕ | 89% | 1.1m/s |
| 10:00 | ✕ | 89% | 1.2m/s |
| 11:00 | ✕ | 87% | 1.2m/s |
| 12:00 | ✕ | 83% | 1.2m/s |
| 13:00 | ✕ | 80% | 1.3m/s |
| 14:00 | ✕ | 80% | 1.6m/s |
| 15:00 | ✕ | 78% | 2.2m/s |
| 16:00 | ✕ | 78% | 2.5m/s |
| 17:00 | ✕ | 78% | 2.3m/s |
| 18:00 | ✕ | 87% | 1.6m/s |
| 19:00 | ✕ | 91% | 1.4m/s |
| 20:00 | ✕ | 91% | 1.4m/s |
| 21:00 | ✕ | 89% | 1.9m/s |
| 22:00 | ✕ | 91% | 1.7m/s |
| 23:00 | ✕ | 91% | 1.7m/s |
| Thu, Apr 9 | |||
| 24:00 | ✕ | 89% | 1.8m/s |
| 01:00 | ✕ | 89% | 1.9m/s |
| 02:00 | ✕ | 89% | 2m/s |
| 03:00 | ✕ | 91% | 1.6m/s |
| 04:00 | ✕ | 84% | 1.7m/s |
| 05:00 | ✓ | 82% | 1.5m/s |
| 06:00 | ✓ | 82% | 1.7m/s |
| 07:00 | ✓ | 89% | 1.8m/s |
| 08:00 | ✕ | 91% | 1.6m/s |
| 09:00 | ✕ | 85% | 1.8m/s |
| 10:00 | ✕ | 78% | 2.2m/s |
| 11:00 | ✕ | 72% | 2.8m/s |
| 12:00 | ✕ | 74% | 3.5m/s |
| 13:00 | ✕ | 70% | 4.6m/s |
| 14:00 | ✕ | 70% | 5.3m/s |
| 15:00 | ✕ | 62% | 5.3m/s |
| 16:00 | ✕ | 76% | 5.1m/s |
| 17:00 | ✕ | 60% | 4.6m/s |
| 18:00 | ✕ | 67% | 3.8m/s |
| 19:00 | ✕ | 67% | 2.7m/s |
| 20:00 | ✕ | 77% | 2.7m/s |
| 21:00 | ✕ | 62% | 2.5m/s |
| 22:00 | ✕ | 62% | 2.5m/s |
| 23:00 | ✕ | 62% | 2.4m/s |
| Fri, Apr 10 | |||
| 24:00 | ✕ | 62% | 2.4m/s |
| 01:00 | ✕ | 62% | 2.3m/s |
| 02:00 | ✕ | 62% | 2m/s |
| 03:00 | ✕ | 62% | 2m/s |
| 04:00 | ✕ | 54% | 2.1m/s |
| 05:00 | ✓ | 73% | 2.2m/s |
| 06:00 | ✓ | 55% | 2.1m/s |
| 07:00 | ✓ | 62% | 2m/s |
| 08:00 | ✕ | 69% | 1.6m/s |
| 09:00 | ✕ | 72% | 1.8m/s |
| 10:00 | ✕ | 44% | 2.1m/s |
| 11:00 | ✕ | 44% | 2.2m/s |
| 12:00 | ✕ | 37% | 2.8m/s |
| 13:00 | ✕ | 30% | 3.2m/s |
| 14:00 | ✕ | 28% | 4.3m/s |
| 15:00 | ✕ | 2.7% | 5.5m/s |
| 16:00 | ✕ | 2.5% | 5.6m/s |
| 17:00 | ✕ | 2.4% | 5.7m/s |
| 18:00 | ✕ | 2.6% | 5.8m/s |
| 19:00 | ✕ | 1.7% | 3.9m/s |
| 20:00 | ✕ | 1% | 2.9m/s |
| 21:00 | ✕ | 1.2% | 2.2m/s |
| 22:00 | ✕ | 1.2% | 2.3m/s |
| 23:00 | ✕ | 1.2% | 2.3m/s |
| Sat, Apr 11 | |||
| 24:00 | ✕ | 1.4% | 1.7m/s |
| 01:00 | ✕ | 1.4% | 1.6m/s |
| 02:00 | ✕ | 1.2% | 2m/s |
| 03:00 | ✕ | 17% | 2.7m/s |
| 04:00 | ✕ | 26% | 3.4m/s |
| 05:00 | ✓ | 33% | 4.1m/s |
| 06:00 | ✓ | 29% | 4.4m/s |
| 07:00 | ✓ | 33% | 4.7m/s |
| 08:00 | ✕ | 31% | 5m/s |
| 09:00 | ✕ | 32% | 4.8m/s |
| 10:00 | ✕ | 35% | 4.7m/s |
| 11:00 | ✕ | 35% | 4.5m/s |
| 12:00 | ✕ | 42% | 3.5m/s |
| 13:00 | ✕ | 44% | 2.4m/s |
| 14:00 | ✕ | 45% | 1.3m/s |
| 15:00 | ✕ | 45% | 1m/s |
| 16:00 | ✕ | 47% | 0.77m/s |
| 17:00 | ✕ | 47% | 0.49m/s |
| 18:00 | ✕ | 47% | 0.62m/s |
| 19:00 | ✕ | 47% | 0.75m/s |
How to read: colored cells show whether each predicate requirement is met; highlighted rows mean the full rule matched (an opportunity).
What does Frost Probability mean?
Inputs that drive the scoreThis derived score summarizes multiple raw weather signals. The table below shows the supporting inputs hour by hour, so you can see what's pushing the score up or down.
| Time America/New_York | Dew Point °C | Surface Temperature °C | Temperature °C | Time Window | Total Cloud Coverage % | Vapor Pressure Deficit kPa |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wed, Apr 8
Sunrise 06:18
Sunset 19:27 | ||||||
| 21:00 ☾ | -9.4°C | -0.16°C | -1.2°C | - | 0% | 0.26kPa |
| 22:00 ☾ | -9.4°C | -0.16°C | -1.4°C | - | 0% | 0.25kPa |
| 23:00 ☾ | -9.4°C | -0.16°C | -1.4°C | - | 0% | 0.25kPa |
| Thu, Apr 9
Sunrise 06:18
Sunset 19:27 | ||||||
| 24:00 ☾ | -9.5°C | -0.16°C | -1.4°C | - | 0% | 0.25kPa |
| 01:00 ☾ | -9.5°C | -0.16°C | -1.6°C | - | 0% | 0.25kPa |
| 02:00 ☾ | -9.1°C | -0.16°C | -1.9°C | - | 5% | 0.22kPa |
| 03:00 ☾ | -8.6°C | -0.16°C | -2.1°C | - | 0% | 0.21kPa |
| 04:00 ☾ | -8.4°C | -0.16°C | -2.4°C | - | 0% | 0.19kPa |
| 05:00 ☾ | -8.3°C | -0.15°C | -2.4°C | - | 0% | 0.19kPa |
| 06:00 ☾ | -8.2°C | -0.15°C | -2.3°C | - | 5% | 0.19kPa |
| 07:00 | -7.9°C | -0.15°C | -1.6°C | - | 5% | 0.21kPa |
| 08:00 | -7.4°C | -0.11°C | 1.8°C | - | 5% | 0.34kPa |
| 09:00 | -7.7°C | -0.11°C | 4.7°C | - | 5% | 0.51kPa |
| 10:00 | -7.8°C | -0.11°C | 7.2°C | - | 4% | 0.68kPa |
| 11:00 | -7.6°C | -0.13°C | 9.1°C | - | 17% | 0.81kPa |
| 12:00 | -7.1°C | -0.13°C | 11°C | - | 9% | 0.93kPa |
| 13:00 | -6.4°C | -0.03°C | 12°C | - | 5% | 1kPa |
| 14:00 | -5.4°C | -0.03°C | 13°C | - | 5% | 1.1kPa |
| 15:00 | -4.6°C | -0.03°C | 13°C | - | 38% | 1kPa |
| 16:00 | -2.1°C | -0.03°C | 13°C | - | 8% | 0.93kPa |
| 17:00 | -0.1°C | 0.17°C | 12°C | - | 99% | 0.76kPa |
| 18:00 | 0.4°C | 0.34°C | 9.5°C | - | 83% | 0.56kPa |
| 19:00 | 0.4°C | 0.64°C | 5.5°C | - | 80% | 0.27kPa |
| 20:00 ☾ | -0.4°C | 0.75°C | 2.9°C | - | 5% | 0.16kPa |
| 21:00 ☾ | -1.4°C | 0.76°C | 2.2°C | - | 96% | 0.16kPa |
| 22:00 ☾ | -1.9°C | 0.74°C | 1.8°C | - | 96% | 0.16kPa |
| 23:00 ☾ | -2.2°C | 0.75°C | 1.9°C | - | 100% | 0.18kPa |
| Fri, Apr 10
Sunrise 06:16
Sunset 19:28 | ||||||
| 24:00 ☾ | -2.6°C | 0.73°C | 1.6°C | - | 100% | 0.18kPa |
| 01:00 ☾ | -2.8°C | 0.68°C | 1.5°C | - | 84% | 0.18kPa |
| 02:00 ☾ | -2.6°C | 0.64°C | 1.5°C | - | 88% | 0.18kPa |
| 03:00 ☾ | -1.4°C | 0.69°C | 2.3°C | - | 94% | 0.17kPa |
| 04:00 ☾ | -1.8°C | 0.67°C | 1.1°C | - | 99% | 0.13kPa |
| 05:00 ☾ | -2°C | 0.57°C | 1.1°C | - | 12% | 0.13kPa |
| 06:00 ☾ | -2°C | 0.57°C | 0.92°C | - | 67% | 0.12kPa |
| 07:00 | -1.1°C | 0.57°C | 2.1°C | - | 89% | 0.15kPa |
| 08:00 | 0.3°C | 0.87°C | 4.9°C | - | 100% | 0.24kPa |
| 09:00 | 1.2°C | 1.4°C | 7.2°C | - | 12% | 0.35kPa |
| 10:00 | 2.6°C | 2.1°C | 10°C | - | 100% | 0.51kPa |
| 11:00 | 4°C | 3°C | 12°C | - | 97% | 0.55kPa |
| 12:00 | 5°C | 3.8°C | 12°C | - | 100% | 0.56kPa |
| 13:00 | 6.2°C | 4.7°C | 14°C | - | 100% | 0.63kPa |
| 14:00 | 6.9°C | 5.6°C | 14°C | - | 100% | 0.64kPa |
| 15:00 | 7.3°C | 6.3°C | 15°C | - | 100% | 0.67kPa |
| 16:00 | 8.3°C | 7°C | 16°C | - | 100% | 0.67kPa |
| 17:00 | 8.6°C | 7.4°C | 14°C | - | 100% | 0.49kPa |
| 18:00 | 8.9°C | 7.7°C | 13°C | - | 100% | 0.34kPa |
| 19:00 | 9.6°C | 7.8°C | 11°C | - | 100% | 0.12kPa |
| 20:00 ☾ | 9.5°C | 7.9°C | 10°C | - | 100% | 0.08kPa |
| 21:00 ☾ | 7.7°C | 7.8°C | 8.1°C | - | 100% | 0.03kPa |
| 22:00 ☾ | 6.2°C | 7.7°C | 6.5°C | - | 100% | 0.02kPa |
| 23:00 ☾ | 4.7°C | 7.4°C | 5.1°C | - | 100% | 0.02kPa |
| Sat, Apr 11
Sunrise 06:15
Sunset 19:29 | ||||||
| 24:00 ☾ | 3.9°C | 7.1°C | 4.4°C | - | 100% | 0.02kPa |
| 01:00 ☾ | 3.5°C | 6.7°C | 4.1°C | - | 100% | 0.03kPa |
| 02:00 ☾ | 3.2°C | 6.4°C | 3.7°C | - | 100% | 0.03kPa |
| 03:00 ☾ | 1.9°C | 5.6°C | 3.8°C | - | 98% | 0.1kPa |
| 04:00 ☾ | 0.6°C | 4.8°C | 3.8°C | - | 97% | 0.17kPa |
| 05:00 ☾ | -1°C | 4°C | 3.9°C | - | 95% | 0.24kPa |
| 06:00 ☾ | -1.4°C | 4.1°C | 4.6°C | - | 91% | 0.29kPa |
| 07:00 | -1.9°C | 4.2°C | 5.3°C | - | 87% | 0.36kPa |
| 08:00 | -2.5°C | 4.4°C | 6°C | - | 83% | 0.42kPa |
| 09:00 | -2.7°C | 4.6°C | 6.1°C | - | 69% | 0.44kPa |
| 10:00 | -2.9°C | 4.8°C | 6.3°C | - | 56% | 0.46kPa |
| 11:00 | -3.1°C | 5°C | 6.4°C | - | 42% | 0.47kPa |
| 12:00 | -2.8°C | 4.8°C | 4.6°C | - | 30% | 0.35kPa |
| 13:00 | -2.8°C | 4.6°C | 2.9°C | - | 17% | 0.25kPa |
| 14:00 | -3°C | 4.5°C | 1.1°C | - | 5% | 0.17kPa |
| 15:00 | -3.3°C | 4.4°C | 0.64°C | - | 5% | 0.16kPa |
| 16:00 | -3.7°C | 4.3°C | 0.18°C | - | 5% | 0.15kPa |
| 17:00 | -4°C | 4.2°C | -0.28°C | - | 5% | 0.14kPa |
| 18:00 | -4.2°C | 4.2°C | -0.39°C | - | 3% | 0.15kPa |
| 19:00 | -4.4°C | 4.2°C | -0.49°C | - | 2% | 0.15kPa |
| 20:00 ☾ | -4.5°C | 4.2°C | -0.59°C | - | 0% | 0.15kPa |
How to read: these inputs help produce the derived score; they are not requirements by themselves.
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