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Rule Morning Frost

Cape Cod - Morning Frost - New England, USA

Cape Cod, Massachusetts, United States

Frost crystals on calm, cold mornings near sunrise

No opportunities right now
Here’s what usually blocks matches

No Morning Frost opportunities in the next 14 days

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Rule requirements (key thresholds)
Time Window · Sunrise -45m to +90m Frost Probability · ≥ 60.0% Wind Speed · ≤ 1.5m/s

Tip: Scroll down to the 72-hour table to see exactly which condition fails hour by hour.

Most common blockers (next 72 hours)
Frost Probability 100% failing
Wind Speed 100% failing
Time Window 88% failing

Currently

Real-time conditions
Soil Temperature9725.9°C
Dew Point-1.8°C (low dew point)
Wind Speed5.2m/s (moderate winds)
Cloud Cover100%

Upcoming Opportunities

When all conditions match, PhotoWeather marks an opportunity window.

Times shown in America/New_York

No opportunities in the next 10 days

See the blocker timeline below to understand which conditions are preventing matches.

What this forecast looks for

Plain-language explanation from the rule

This forecast predicts the first frost events that transform New England's fall foliage into crystalline masterpieces. We track overnight temperatures, dewpoint, and wind conditions to identify when frost will coat leaves, grasses, and stone walls with sparkling ice crystals.

The first hard frost of autumn is a cherished event in New England—it triggers the final phase of fall color and creates magical dawn conditions where ice crystals catch golden light. The region's iconic stone walls, covered bridges, and sugar maples take on new dimension when dusted with frost.

What makes New England frost photography exceptional:

  • Foliage enhancement - Frost crystals on red and orange leaves create otherworldly textures and highlights
  • Stone wall character - New England's ubiquitous dry-stacked stone walls gain definition and drama when frost-covered
  • Sugar maple groves - Vermont and New Hampshire maple stands combine brilliant color with frost textures
  • Historic elements - Colonial-era buildings, covered bridges, and farmsteads gain timeless quality under frost

Best conditions occur on clear, calm nights in October when temperatures drop to 28-32°F. Frost melts quickly after sunrise, so arrive before dawn for frost plus golden hour light. Protected valleys and hollows accumulate frost more heavily than exposed hilltops.

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72-hour requirements breakdown

What passed or failed, hour by hour
0matching hours in the next 95 hours
AND logic: all conditions required
Meets requirement
Misses requirement
Time
America/New_York
Time Window
Sunrise -45m to +90m
Frost Probability
≥ 60.0%
Wind Speed
≤ 1.5m/s
Sat, Feb 21
14:000%4.5m/s
15:000%4.9m/s
16:000%4.8m/s
17:000%3.6m/s
18:000%2.6m/s
19:000%2.4m/s
20:000%1.9m/s
21:000%1.4m/s
22:000%1.6m/s
23:000%1.4m/s
Sun, Feb 22
24:000%1.4m/s
01:000%1.3m/s
02:000%1.1m/s
03:000%1.2m/s
04:000%1.8m/s
05:000%1.7m/s
06:000%0.98m/s
07:000%1.4m/s
08:000%2.3m/s
09:000%3.9m/s
10:000%4.2m/s
11:000%4.4m/s
12:000%4.4m/s
13:000%4.9m/s
14:000%5.2m/s
15:000%5m/s
16:000%5.4m/s
17:000%4.9m/s
18:000%7.1m/s
19:000%6m/s
20:000%8.6m/s
21:000%10m/s
22:000%10m/s
23:000%9.7m/s
Mon, Feb 23
24:000%10m/s
01:000%13m/s
02:000%15m/s
03:000%16m/s
04:000%18m/s
05:000%17m/s
06:000%19m/s
07:000%19m/s
08:000%21m/s
09:000%21m/s
10:000%19m/s
11:000%19m/s
12:000%20m/s
13:000%20m/s
14:000%20m/s
15:000%21m/s
16:000%21m/s
17:000%20m/s
18:000%19m/s
19:000%17m/s
20:000%15m/s
21:000%13m/s
22:000%10m/s
23:000%10m/s
Tue, Feb 24
24:000%9.4m/s
01:000%8.6m/s
02:000%7.9m/s
03:000%7.9m/s
04:000%8.4m/s
05:000%8.2m/s
06:000%7.7m/s
07:000%7.3m/s
08:000%7.1m/s
09:000%7.4m/s
10:000%7.2m/s
11:000%6.7m/s
12:000%6.1m/s
13:000%5.6m/s
14:000%4.9m/s
15:000%5.3m/s
16:000%5.5m/s
17:000%5.9m/s
18:000%6.5m/s
19:000%6.5m/s
20:000%6.7m/s
21:000%6.9m/s
22:000%7.1m/s
23:000%7.5m/s
Wed, Feb 25
24:000%7.9m/s
01:000%8.4m/s
02:000%9.4m/s
03:000%10m/s
04:000%11m/s
05:000%13m/s
06:000%14m/s
07:000%15m/s
08:000%14m/s
09:000%13m/s
10:000%12m/s
11:000%12m/s
12:000%12m/s
How to read: colored cells show whether each predicate requirement is met; highlighted rows mean the full rule matched (an opportunity).

What does Frost Probability mean?

Inputs that drive the score

This derived score summarizes multiple raw weather signals. The table below shows the supporting inputs hour by hour, so you can see what's pushing the score up or down.

Time
America/New_York
Dew Point
°C
Surface Temperature
°C
Temperature
°C
Time Window
Total Cloud Coverage
%
Vapor Pressure Deficit
kPa
Sun, Feb 22 Sunrise 06:26 Sunset 17:22
14:00
-1.8°C 9726°C 2.1°C - 100% 0.18kPa
15:00
-1.6°C 9726°C 1.7°C - 100% 0.15kPa
16:00
-1.8°C 9726°C 1.5°C - 100% 0.15kPa
17:00
-2°C 9726°C 1.2°C - 100% 0.14kPa
18:00
-1.4°C 9726°C 0.7°C - 100% 0.09kPa
19:00
-0.9°C 9726°C 0.5°C - 100% 0.06kPa
20:00
-0.8°C 9726°C 0.4°C - 100% 0.05kPa
21:00
-0.9°C 9726°C 0.24°C - 100% 0.05kPa
22:00
-1.1°C 9726°C 0.4°C - 100% 0.06kPa
23:00
-1°C 9726°C 0.64°C - 100% 0.07kPa
Mon, Feb 23 Sunrise 06:25 Sunset 17:24
24:00
-0.7°C 9726°C 0.66°C - 100% 0.06kPa
01:00
-0.5°C 9726°C 0.88°C - 100% 0.06kPa
02:00
-0.3°C 9726°C 0.82°C - 100% 0.05kPa
03:00
0°C 9726°C 0.49°C - 100% 0.02kPa
04:00
-0.1°C 9726°C 0.33°C - 100% 0.02kPa
05:00
-0.2°C 9726°C 0.27°C - 100% 0.02kPa
06:00
-0.3°C 9726°C 0.05°C - 100% 0.02kPa
07:00
-0.5°C 9726°C -0.04°C - 100% 0.02kPa
08:00
-0.6°C 9726°C -0.13°C - 100% 0.02kPa
09:00
-0.5°C 9726°C -0.12°C - 100% 0.02kPa
10:00
-0.4°C 9726°C 0.05°C - 100% 0.02kPa
11:00
-0.6°C 9726°C -0.11°C - 100% 0.02kPa
12:00
-1.1°C 9726°C -0.44°C - 100% 0.03kPa
13:00
-0.8°C 9726°C -0.32°C - 100% 0.02kPa
14:00
-0.7°C 9726°C -0.26°C - 100% 0.02kPa
15:00
-1.3°C 9726°C -0.69°C - 100% 0.03kPa
16:00
-1.6°C 9726°C -0.89°C - 100% 0.03kPa
17:00
-2.3°C 9726°C -1.3°C - 100% 0.04kPa
18:00
-2.4°C 9726°C -1.4°C - 100% 0.04kPa
19:00
-2.4°C 9726°C -1.6°C - 100% 0.03kPa
20:00
-2.5°C 9726°C -1.7°C - 100% 0.03kPa
21:00
-2.5°C 9726°C -1.8°C - 100% 0.03kPa
22:00
-2.9°C 9726°C -2°C - 100% 0.03kPa
23:00
-4.4°C 9726°C -2.8°C - 100% 0.05kPa
Tue, Feb 24 Sunrise 06:23 Sunset 17:25
24:00
-4.7°C 9726°C -2.8°C - 100% 0.07kPa
01:00
-5.4°C 9726°C -2.6°C - 100% 0.1kPa
02:00
-6.6°C 9726°C -3.2°C - 71% 0.11kPa
03:00
-7.2°C 9726°C -3.6°C - 36% 0.11kPa
04:00
-7°C 9726°C -3.2°C - 100% 0.12kPa
05:00
-7°C 9726°C -3.2°C - 14% 0.12kPa
06:00
-7.2°C 9726°C -3.7°C - 100% 0.11kPa
07:00
-7.2°C 9726°C -3.9°C - 100% 0.1kPa
08:00
-7°C 9726°C -3.8°C - 91% 0.1kPa
09:00
-6.7°C 9726°C -3.4°C - 66% 0.11kPa
10:00
-6.6°C 9726°C -2.9°C - 71% 0.12kPa
11:00
-6.3°C 9726°C -2.3°C - 86% 0.13kPa
12:00
-6.1°C 9726°C -1.7°C - 100% 0.15kPa
13:00
-5.5°C 9726°C -1.3°C - 98% 0.15kPa
14:00
-4.4°C 9726°C -0.73°C - 100% 0.14kPa
15:00
-3.5°C 9726°C -0.82°C - 100% 0.1kPa
16:00
-3.7°C 9726°C -1.2°C - 98% 0.09kPa
17:00
-4.5°C 9726°C -2°C - 100% 0.09kPa
18:00
-5.5°C 9726°C -3.4°C - 70% 0.07kPa
19:00
-7°C 9726°C -5.1°C - 100% 0.06kPa
20:00
-6.9°C 9726°C -4.4°C - 100% 0.08kPa
21:00
-6.9°C 9726°C -3.6°C - 100% 0.1kPa
22:00
-6.9°C 9726°C -2.8°C - 100% 0.13kPa
23:00
-6.1°C 9726°C -1.8°C - 100% 0.15kPa
Wed, Feb 25 Sunrise 06:22 Sunset 17:26
24:00
-5.3°C 9726°C -0.7°C - 100% 0.17kPa
01:00
-4.4°C 9726°C 0.37°C - 100% 0.19kPa
02:00
-2.9°C 9726°C 0.98°C - 100% 0.16kPa
03:00
-1.5°C 9726°C 1.6°C - 100% 0.14kPa
04:00
-0.1°C 9726°C 2.2°C - 100% 0.11kPa
05:00
0.7°C 9726°C 2.5°C - 100% 0.09kPa
06:00
1.4°C 9726°C 2.9°C - 100% 0.07kPa
07:00
2.2°C 9726°C 3.2°C - 100% 0.05kPa
08:00
2.1°C 9726°C 2.9°C - 100% 0.04kPa
09:00
2°C 9726°C 2.6°C - 100% 0.03kPa
10:00
1.9°C 9726°C 2.3°C - 100% 0.02kPa
11:00
1.6°C 9726°C 2.5°C - 100% 0.04kPa
12:00
1.3°C 9726°C 2.7°C - 100% 0.07kPa
13:00
1°C 9726°C 2.9°C - 100% 0.1kPa
How to read: these inputs help produce the derived score; they are not requirements by themselves.

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