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Rule Morning Frost

Burlington - Morning Frost - New England, USA

Burlington, Vermont, United States

Frost crystals on calm, cold mornings near sunrise

No opportunities right now
Here’s what usually blocks matches

No Morning Frost opportunities in the next 14 days

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Rule requirements (key thresholds)
Time Window · Sunrise -45m to +90m Frost Probability · ≥ 60.0% Wind Speed · ≤ 1.5m/s

Tip: Scroll down to the 72-hour table to see exactly which condition fails hour by hour.

Most common blockers (next 72 hours)
Frost Probability 100% failing
Time Window 88% failing
Wind Speed 75% failing

Currently

Real-time conditions
Soil Temperature9725.9°C
Dew Point9.4°C (moderate dew point)
Wind Speed1.8m/s (calm conditions)
Cloud Cover100%

Upcoming Opportunities

When all conditions match, PhotoWeather marks an opportunity window.

Times shown in America/New_York

No opportunities in the next 10 days

See the blocker timeline below to understand which conditions are preventing matches.

What this forecast looks for

Plain-language explanation from the rule

This forecast predicts the first frost events that transform New England's fall foliage into crystalline masterpieces. We track overnight temperatures, dewpoint, and wind conditions to identify when frost will coat leaves, grasses, and stone walls with sparkling ice crystals.

The first hard frost of autumn is a cherished event in New England—it triggers the final phase of fall color and creates magical dawn conditions where ice crystals catch golden light. The region's iconic stone walls, covered bridges, and sugar maples take on new dimension when dusted with frost.

What makes New England frost photography exceptional:

  • Foliage enhancement - Frost crystals on red and orange leaves create otherworldly textures and highlights
  • Stone wall character - New England's ubiquitous dry-stacked stone walls gain definition and drama when frost-covered
  • Sugar maple groves - Vermont and New Hampshire maple stands combine brilliant color with frost textures
  • Historic elements - Colonial-era buildings, covered bridges, and farmsteads gain timeless quality under frost

Best conditions occur on clear, calm nights in October when temperatures drop to 28-32°F. Frost melts quickly after sunrise, so arrive before dawn for frost plus golden hour light. Protected valleys and hollows accumulate frost more heavily than exposed hilltops.

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72-hour requirements breakdown

What passed or failed, hour by hour
0matching hours in the next 95 hours
AND logic: all conditions required
Meets requirement
Misses requirement
Time
America/New_York
Time Window
Sunrise -45m to +90m
Frost Probability
≥ 60.0%
Wind Speed
≤ 1.5m/s
Mon, Apr 13
15:000%9.4m/s
16:000%6.8m/s
17:000%3.7m/s
18:000%3.2m/s
19:000%4m/s
20:000%2.8m/s
21:000%2.4m/s
22:000%2.2m/s
23:000%3.7m/s
Tue, Apr 14
24:000%2.7m/s
01:000%2.7m/s
02:000%4.2m/s
03:000%4.9m/s
04:000%5.4m/s
05:000%4.7m/s
06:000%3m/s
07:000%1.4m/s
08:000%1.3m/s
09:000%1.7m/s
10:000%1.3m/s
11:000%0.86m/s
12:000%0.37m/s
13:000%2.3m/s
14:000%0.68m/s
15:000%1.8m/s
16:000%1.3m/s
17:000%0.8m/s
18:000%2.1m/s
19:000%2.8m/s
20:000%4.2m/s
21:000%5.3m/s
22:000%4.9m/s
23:000%3.7m/s
Wed, Apr 15
24:000%3.2m/s
01:000%2.3m/s
02:000%1.9m/s
03:000%0.95m/s
04:000%1.3m/s
05:000%0.71m/s
06:000%1.4m/s
07:000%1.7m/s
08:000%1.4m/s
09:000%1.6m/s
10:000%1.5m/s
11:000%1.3m/s
12:000%1.5m/s
13:000%1.6m/s
14:000%2.1m/s
15:000%3.5m/s
16:000%1.4m/s
17:000%2.2m/s
18:000%4m/s
19:000%2.7m/s
20:000%1.9m/s
21:000%1.4m/s
22:000%0.75m/s
23:000%1.5m/s
Thu, Apr 16
24:000%1.2m/s
01:000%1.6m/s
02:000%1.7m/s
03:000%2.9m/s
04:000%2.9m/s
05:000%3.3m/s
06:000%3.7m/s
07:000%4.2m/s
08:000%3.8m/s
09:000%4.2m/s
10:000%3.4m/s
11:000%3.4m/s
12:000%3.2m/s
13:000%3m/s
14:000%3.3m/s
15:000%2.6m/s
16:000%1.1m/s
17:000%2m/s
18:000%0.57m/s
19:000%3.4m/s
20:000%3m/s
21:000%2.6m/s
22:000%2.2m/s
23:000%1.8m/s
Fri, Apr 17
24:000%1.9m/s
01:000%2m/s
02:000%2.2m/s
03:000%2.1m/s
04:000%2.1m/s
05:000%2.1m/s
06:000%2.3m/s
07:000%2.5m/s
08:000%2.7m/s
09:000%3.1m/s
10:000%3.5m/s
11:000%3.8m/s
12:000%3.1m/s
13:000%2.4m/s
How to read: colored cells show whether each predicate requirement is met; highlighted rows mean the full rule matched (an opportunity).

What does Frost Probability mean?

Inputs that drive the score

This derived score summarizes multiple raw weather signals. The table below shows the supporting inputs hour by hour, so you can see what's pushing the score up or down.

Time
America/New_York
Dew Point
°C
Surface Temperature
°C
Temperature
°C
Time Window
Total Cloud Coverage
%
Vapor Pressure Deficit
kPa
Tue, Apr 14 Sunrise 06:10 Sunset 19:36
15:00
9.4°C 9726°C 9.9°C - 100% 0.04kPa
16:00
10°C 9726°C 11°C - 100% 0.04kPa
17:00
10°C 9726°C 10°C - 100% 0.02kPa
18:00
11°C 9726°C 11°C - 100% 0.02kPa
19:00
11°C 9726°C 11°C - 100% 0.02kPa
20:00
8.9°C 9726°C 9°C - 100% 0kPa
21:00
8.4°C 9726°C 8.5°C - 100% 0.01kPa
22:00
7.7°C 9726°C 7.9°C - 100% 0.01kPa
23:00
7.3°C 9726°C 7.6°C - 100% 0.02kPa
Wed, Apr 15 Sunrise 06:09 Sunset 19:37
24:00
7.1°C 9726°C 7.4°C - 100% 0.02kPa
01:00
6.8°C 9726°C 7.1°C - 89% 0.02kPa
02:00
6.7°C 9726°C 6.9°C - 92% 0.02kPa
03:00
6.8°C 9726°C 7.1°C - 96% 0.02kPa
04:00
6.6°C 9726°C 6.8°C - 100% 0.01kPa
05:00
6.6°C 9726°C 6.9°C - 100% 0.02kPa
06:00
6.9°C 9726°C 7.2°C - 100% 0.02kPa
07:00
7.3°C 9726°C 7.8°C - 100% 0.03kPa
08:00
8°C 9726°C 8.6°C - 100% 0.05kPa
09:00
8.4°C 9726°C 8.9°C - 100% 0.04kPa
10:00
9°C 9726°C 9.4°C - 100% 0.03kPa
11:00
9.3°C 9726°C 9.4°C - 100% 0.01kPa
12:00
9.7°C 9726°C 9.8°C - 100% 0kPa
13:00
9.6°C 9726°C 9.6°C - 100% 0kPa
14:00
10°C 9726°C 10°C - 100% 0kPa
15:00
10°C 9726°C 10°C - 100% 0kPa
16:00
10°C 9726°C 10°C - 100% 0kPa
17:00
11°C 9726°C 11°C - 100% 0kPa
18:00
9.8°C 9726°C 9.9°C - 100% 0kPa
19:00
9.4°C 9726°C 9.4°C - 100% 0kPa
20:00
9.4°C 9726°C 9.5°C - 100% 0kPa
21:00
9.1°C 9726°C 9.1°C - 100% 0kPa
22:00
8.9°C 9726°C 8.9°C - 100% 0kPa
23:00
9°C 9726°C 9°C - 100% 0kPa
Thu, Apr 16 Sunrise 06:07 Sunset 19:38
24:00
9.2°C 9726°C 9.2°C - 100% 0kPa
01:00
9.3°C 9726°C 9.3°C - 100% 0kPa
02:00
9.4°C 9726°C 9.4°C - 100% 0kPa
03:00
10°C 9726°C 10°C - 100% 0kPa
04:00
11°C 9726°C 11°C - 100% 0kPa
05:00
11°C 9726°C 11°C - 100% 0kPa
06:00
11°C 9726°C 11°C - 100% 0kPa
07:00
12°C 9726°C 12°C - 99% 0.01kPa
08:00
12°C 9726°C 12°C - 68% 0.01kPa
09:00
13°C 9726°C 13°C - 100% 0.05kPa
10:00
13°C 9726°C 13°C - 94% 0.05kPa
11:00
13°C 9726°C 14°C - 100% 0.06kPa
12:00
14°C 9726°C 14°C - 100% 0.05kPa
13:00
14°C 9726°C 14°C - 100% 0kPa
14:00
14°C 9726°C 14°C - 100% 0kPa
15:00
13°C 9726°C 13°C - 100% 0.01kPa
16:00
13°C 9726°C 13°C - 100% 0kPa
17:00
13°C 9726°C 13°C - 100% 0kPa
18:00
12°C 9726°C 12°C - 100% 0kPa
19:00
12°C 9726°C 12°C - 100% 0kPa
20:00
11°C 9726°C 11°C - 100% 0kPa
21:00
10°C 6488°C 10°C - 100% 0.01kPa
22:00
9.7°C 3250°C 9.8°C - 100% 0.01kPa
23:00
9.2°C 13°C 9.5°C - 100% 0.02kPa
Fri, Apr 17 Sunrise 06:05 Sunset 19:39
24:00
8.9°C 12°C 9.1°C - 100% 0.02kPa
01:00
8.5°C 12°C 8.8°C - 100% 0.02kPa
02:00
8.1°C 12°C 8.4°C - 100% 0.02kPa
03:00
8.6°C 11°C 9.3°C - 100% 0.06kPa
04:00
9.1°C 11°C 10°C - 100% 0.09kPa
05:00
9.6°C 11°C 11°C - 100% 0.14kPa
06:00
9.7°C 11°C 13°C - 74% 0.25kPa
07:00
9.8°C 11°C 14°C - 48% 0.38kPa
08:00
9.7°C 11°C 15°C - 21% 0.53kPa
09:00
9.6°C 12°C 16°C - 24% 0.59kPa
10:00
9.5°C 12°C 16°C - 26% 0.65kPa
11:00
9.3°C 13°C 17°C - 28% 0.72kPa
12:00
9.3°C 13°C 15°C - 19% 0.5kPa
13:00
9.2°C 13°C 13°C - 10% 0.33kPa
14:00
8.8°C 12°C 11°C - 0% 0.19kPa
How to read: these inputs help produce the derived score; they are not requirements by themselves.

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