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Rule Morning Frost

Bar Harbor - Morning Frost - New England, USA

Bar Harbor, Maine, United States

Frost crystals on calm, cold mornings near sunrise

No opportunities right now
Here’s what usually blocks matches

No Morning Frost opportunities in the next 14 days

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Rule requirements (key thresholds)
Time Window · Sunrise -45m to +90m Frost Probability · ≥ 60.0% Wind Speed · ≤ 1.5m/s

Tip: Scroll down to the 72-hour table to see exactly which condition fails hour by hour.

Most common blockers (next 72 hours)
Frost Probability 100% failing
Wind Speed 99% failing
Time Window 88% failing

Currently

Real-time conditions
Soil Temperature6.3°C
Dew Point-2.0°C (low dew point)
Wind Speed7.5m/s (moderate winds)
Cloud Cover89%

Upcoming Opportunities

When all conditions match, PhotoWeather marks an opportunity window.

Times shown in America/New_York

No opportunities in the next 10 days

See the blocker timeline below to understand which conditions are preventing matches.

What this forecast looks for

Plain-language explanation from the rule

This forecast predicts the first frost events that transform New England's fall foliage into crystalline masterpieces. We track overnight temperatures, dewpoint, and wind conditions to identify when frost will coat leaves, grasses, and stone walls with sparkling ice crystals.

The first hard frost of autumn is a cherished event in New England—it triggers the final phase of fall color and creates magical dawn conditions where ice crystals catch golden light. The region's iconic stone walls, covered bridges, and sugar maples take on new dimension when dusted with frost.

What makes New England frost photography exceptional:

  • Foliage enhancement - Frost crystals on red and orange leaves create otherworldly textures and highlights
  • Stone wall character - New England's ubiquitous dry-stacked stone walls gain definition and drama when frost-covered
  • Sugar maple groves - Vermont and New Hampshire maple stands combine brilliant color with frost textures
  • Historic elements - Colonial-era buildings, covered bridges, and farmsteads gain timeless quality under frost

Best conditions occur on clear, calm nights in October when temperatures drop to 28-32°F. Frost melts quickly after sunrise, so arrive before dawn for frost plus golden hour light. Protected valleys and hollows accumulate frost more heavily than exposed hilltops.

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72-hour requirements breakdown

What passed or failed, hour by hour
0matching hours in the next 95 hours
AND logic: all conditions required
Meets requirement
Misses requirement
Time
America/New_York
Time Window
Sunrise -45m to +90m
Frost Probability
≥ 60.0%
Wind Speed
≤ 1.5m/s
Fri, Apr 10
15:0027%6.2m/s
16:0042%6m/s
17:0044%5.5m/s
18:0024%4.7m/s
19:0018%4.1m/s
20:0022%3.5m/s
21:0015%3.3m/s
22:0018%4m/s
23:0018%3.9m/s
Sat, Apr 11
24:0019%3.1m/s
01:0017%2.5m/s
02:0017%1.7m/s
03:0019%1.1m/s
04:0013%1.7m/s
05:0011%3m/s
06:0013%4.5m/s
07:0011%5.8m/s
08:0014%5.9m/s
09:0029%6.6m/s
10:0042%6.9m/s
11:0033%7.5m/s
12:0029%7.9m/s
13:0024%7.7m/s
14:0024%8.1m/s
15:002.3%7.5m/s
16:003.4%7m/s
17:004.3%7.2m/s
18:004.3%7.1m/s
19:004.5%6.8m/s
20:0046%6.2m/s
21:0046%6.1m/s
22:0042%6m/s
23:0042%5.8m/s
Sun, Apr 12
24:0044%5.5m/s
01:0044%5.4m/s
02:0046%5.4m/s
03:0041%5m/s
04:0041%4.8m/s
05:0041%4.6m/s
06:0041%4.3m/s
07:0050%4.1m/s
08:0057%4.7m/s
09:0057%4.4m/s
10:0047%4.2m/s
11:0048%3.9m/s
12:0045%3.7m/s
13:0029%3.6m/s
14:0035%3.6m/s
15:0035%3.3m/s
16:0043%2.7m/s
17:002.7%3.2m/s
18:003%4.2m/s
19:0035%4m/s
20:0031%3.6m/s
21:0031%3.7m/s
22:0031%3.1m/s
23:0031%3m/s
Mon, Apr 13
24:0026%3.2m/s
01:0026%3.6m/s
02:0026%4.2m/s
03:0024%5.1m/s
04:0013%6.5m/s
05:0013%6.8m/s
06:009%6.6m/s
07:009%7.4m/s
08:009%7.4m/s
09:009%7.8m/s
10:009%7.1m/s
11:009%7m/s
12:009%6.5m/s
13:009%6.1m/s
14:0011%5m/s
15:009%4.5m/s
16:009%4.3m/s
17:009%4.5m/s
18:0011%4.1m/s
19:0011%3.6m/s
20:0011%3.3m/s
21:0012%3m/s
22:0017%2.7m/s
23:002.3%2.5m/s
Tue, Apr 14
24:001.9%2.6m/s
01:001.8%2.8m/s
02:001.8%3m/s
03:002.4%2.4m/s
04:003.2%1.7m/s
05:003.2%1.1m/s
06:000%1.7m/s
07:000%2.4m/s
08:000%3.1m/s
09:000%3.3m/s
10:000%3.6m/s
11:000%3.8m/s
12:000%3.6m/s
13:000%3.3m/s
How to read: colored cells show whether each predicate requirement is met; highlighted rows mean the full rule matched (an opportunity).

What does Frost Probability mean?

Inputs that drive the score

This derived score summarizes multiple raw weather signals. The table below shows the supporting inputs hour by hour, so you can see what's pushing the score up or down.

Time
America/New_York
Dew Point
°C
Surface Temperature
°C
Temperature
°C
Time Window
Total Cloud Coverage
%
Vapor Pressure Deficit
kPa
Sat, Apr 11 Sunrise 05:56 Sunset 19:12
15:00
-2°C 6.3°C 9.6°C - 89% 0.67kPa
16:00
-1.3°C 6.4°C 9.4°C - 21% 0.62kPa
17:00
-1.4°C 6.6°C 8.4°C - 5% 0.55kPa
18:00
-2.3°C 6.5°C 6.6°C - 1% 0.46kPa
19:00
-2.8°C 6.3°C 5°C - 1% 0.37kPa
20:00
-3°C 5.9°C 4.1°C - 5% 0.33kPa
21:00
-3°C 5.6°C 3.5°C - 5% 0.3kPa
22:00
-2.9°C 5.3°C 3.1°C - 5% 0.27kPa
23:00
-3.1°C 5°C 2.7°C - 1% 0.26kPa
Sun, Apr 12 Sunrise 05:54 Sunset 19:13
24:00
-3.2°C 4.6°C 2.4°C - 0% 0.24kPa
01:00
-3.5°C 4.3°C 2°C - 0% 0.24kPa
02:00
-3.6°C 4°C 1.7°C - 0% 0.22kPa
03:00
-3.5°C 3.6°C 1.1°C - 0% 0.19kPa
04:00
-3.6°C 3.4°C 0.67°C - 0% 0.17kPa
05:00
-4.1°C 3.2°C 0.2°C - 0% 0.17kPa
06:00
-4.3°C 3.1°C -0.24°C - 0% 0.15kPa
07:00
-4.2°C 3°C 0.46°C - 0% 0.18kPa
08:00
-4.7°C 2.9°C 2.2°C - 0% 0.28kPa
09:00
-5.4°C 2.9°C 3.9°C - 5% 0.4kPa
10:00
-5.5°C 3°C 5.6°C - 35% 0.5kPa
11:00
-5.3°C 3.2°C 6.8°C - 5% 0.58kPa
12:00
-5°C 3.6°C 8.1°C - 5% 0.66kPa
13:00
-4.6°C 4.2°C 9.1°C - 62% 0.73kPa
14:00
-4.2°C 4.7°C 10°C - 28% 0.78kPa
15:00
-3.8°C 5.3°C 10°C - 26% 0.8kPa
16:00
-3.4°C 5.7°C 11°C - 8% 0.81kPa
17:00
-2.5°C 6°C 10°C - 100% 0.74kPa
18:00
-1.2°C 6.1°C 7.2°C - 100% 0.46kPa
19:00
-1.3°C 6°C 5.2°C - 100% 0.33kPa
20:00
-1.7°C 5.7°C 4.2°C - 100% 0.28kPa
21:00
-1.7°C 5.4°C 4°C - 100% 0.28kPa
22:00
-1.6°C 5.1°C 3.7°C - 100% 0.25kPa
23:00
-1.5°C 4.9°C 3.4°C - 100% 0.23kPa
Mon, Apr 13 Sunrise 05:52 Sunset 19:14
24:00
-0.7°C 4.6°C 3.4°C - 100% 0.2kPa
01:00
0.1°C 4.4°C 3.4°C - 100% 0.16kPa
02:00
0.7°C 4.2°C 3.7°C - 100% 0.15kPa
03:00
1.1°C 4.1°C 4.2°C - 100% 0.17kPa
04:00
2°C 4°C 3.9°C - 100% 0.1kPa
05:00
2.4°C 3.9°C 3.8°C - 100% 0.07kPa
06:00
3°C 3.7°C 3.8°C - 100% 0.04kPa
07:00
3.4°C 3.7°C 4°C - 100% 0.03kPa
08:00
3.8°C 3.6°C 4.4°C - 100% 0.03kPa
09:00
4.2°C 3.6°C 4.8°C - 100% 0.03kPa
10:00
4.7°C 3.6°C 5.3°C - 100% 0.03kPa
11:00
5°C 3.7°C 5.5°C - 100% 0.03kPa
12:00
5.3°C 3.7°C 5.9°C - 100% 0.04kPa
13:00
5.7°C 3.8°C 6.4°C - 100% 0.04kPa
14:00
6.3°C 3.9°C 6.9°C - 100% 0.04kPa
15:00
6.7°C 4.1°C 7.2°C - 100% 0.04kPa
16:00
7.4°C 4.3°C 7.9°C - 100% 0.03kPa
17:00
8°C 4.4°C 8.4°C - 100% 0.03kPa
18:00
8.2°C 4.6°C 8.6°C - 100% 0.03kPa
19:00
8.2°C 4.8°C 8.5°C - 100% 0.03kPa
20:00
8.5°C 5°C 8.7°C - 100% 0.02kPa
21:00
8.6°C 5.4°C 8.9°C - 70% 0.02kPa
22:00
8.7°C 5.8°C 9.1°C - 40% 0.02kPa
23:00
8.9°C 6.2°C 9.2°C - 11% 0.03kPa
Tue, Apr 14 Sunrise 05:50 Sunset 19:15
24:00
9.3°C 6.3°C 10°C - 31% 0.06kPa
01:00
9.7°C 6.4°C 11°C - 51% 0.09kPa
02:00
10°C 6.6°C 12°C - 71% 0.12kPa
03:00
9.9°C 7°C 12°C - 80% 0.21kPa
04:00
9.5°C 7.5°C 13°C - 90% 0.31kPa
05:00
9.1°C 8°C 14°C - 100% 0.42kPa
06:00
9.1°C 8.3°C 13°C - 100% 0.35kPa
07:00
9.1°C 8.5°C 12°C - 100% 0.28kPa
08:00
9°C 8.8°C 12°C - 99% 0.22kPa
09:00
8.5°C 8.9°C 11°C - 98% 0.17kPa
10:00
8°C 9°C 9.7°C - 97% 0.13kPa
11:00
7.4°C 9.2°C 8.7°C - 96% 0.09kPa
12:00
6.8°C 8.9°C 7.7°C - 98% 0.07kPa
13:00
6.1°C 8.7°C 6.8°C - 99% 0.04kPa
14:00
5.5°C 8.4°C 5.8°C - 100% 0.02kPa
How to read: these inputs help produce the derived score; they are not requirements by themselves.

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