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Rule Storm Chaser

Wailea - Storm Chaser - Hawaii

Kīhei, Hawaii, United States

Dramatic storm conditions — from atmospheric builds to active thunderstorms

No opportunities right now
Here’s what usually blocks matches

No Storm Chaser opportunities in the next 14 days

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Rule requirements (key thresholds)
Storm Intensity · ≥ 55.0% Cloud Drama Score · ≥ 55.0% CAPE · ≥ 1200.0J/kg Lifted Index · ≤ -2.0°C

Tip: Scroll down to the 72-hour table to see exactly which condition fails hour by hour.

Most common blockers (next 72 hours)
Storm Intensity 100% failing
Cloud Drama Score 83% failing
CAPE 74% failing

Currently

Real-time conditions
Cloud Cover20%
Wind Gusts3.4m/s
Precipitation Chance92%
Air Pressure984.9hPa
CAPE563
Lifted Index-3.8°C
Wind Gusts3.4m/s
Precipitation0.0mm

Upcoming Opportunities

When all conditions match, PhotoWeather marks an opportunity window.

Times shown in Pacific/Honolulu

No opportunities in the next 10 days

See the blocker timeline below to understand which conditions are preventing matches.

What this forecast looks for

Plain-language explanation from the rule

This forecast tracks Hawaii's tropical storm conditions, focusing on the dramatic convective storms and rain squalls that create spectacular photography opportunities. We monitor atmospheric instability, trade wind patterns, and convective development to predict when tropical storms will produce dramatic skies and lighting conditions.

Hawaii's tropical location means storm systems behave differently than mainland storms. Trade wind showers create brief, intense rain squalls that pass quickly, often producing rainbows. Kona storms—winter low-pressure systems from the southwest—bring more widespread drama. Summer afternoon convection builds towering clouds over island mountains.

What makes Hawaii special for storm photography:

  • Tropical convection - Towering cumulus clouds develop over volcanic peaks in afternoon heat
  • Dramatic cloud formations - Trade winds create lenticular clouds and wave patterns
  • Kona storm drama - Winter southwest storms bring unusual widespread rain and dramatic conditions
  • Rain squalls with rainbows - Brief intense showers followed immediately by sunshine and rainbows

Hawaiian storm photography is unique because storms are rarely dangerous to photographers—most are brief convective cells or passing squalls rather than severe weather. The dramatic part is the towering cloud formations, not dangerous conditions. Afternoon convection over Mauna Kea and Haleakala creates spectacular anvil clouds and light shows. Kona storms, occurring October through April, bring the most widespread dramatic conditions with dark clouds, wind-driven rain, and spectacular clearing. The windward coasts see more frequent trade wind squalls—brief heavy showers that create dramatic light when sun breaks through. The combination of tropical moisture, volcanic terrain, and reliable sunshine means storm photography often includes rainbows as a bonus. Watch for conditions where dark storm clouds contrast with bright sunlit areas.

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72-hour requirements breakdown

What passed or failed, hour by hour
0matching hours in the next 95 hours
OR logic: one branch per group is enough
Meets requirement
Misses requirement
Time
Pacific/Honolulu
Storm Intensity
≥ 55.0%
Cloud Drama Score
≥ 55.0%
CAPE
OR1·B1
≥ 1200.0J/kg
Lifted Index
OR1·B2
≤ -2.0°C
Visibility
≥ 2500.0m
Wind Gusts
≤ 22.0m/s
Sat, Feb 21
09:000%53%103J/kg0.4°C24135m2.1m/s
10:000%42%125J/kg-0.1°C24134m1.5m/s
11:0013%42%145J/kg-0.5°C24135m1.7m/s
12:000%42%189J/kg-0.8°C18708m2.6m/s
13:000%57%268J/kg-0.9°C18499m3.1m/s
14:0023%55%295J/kg-0.9°C24135m2.9m/s
15:000%47%74J/kg0.2°C24135m1.9m/s
16:000%55%143J/kg-0.5°C19913m2.4m/s
17:0013%67%116J/kg-0.4°C17445m2.5m/s
18:0012%74%71J/kg0.2°C19654m2.4m/s
19:0012%86%45J/kg-0.2°C24135m2.2m/s
20:0013%12%38J/kg-0.1°C22786m2.1m/s
21:000%13%73J/kg-0.2°C24134m1.5m/s
22:000%15%74J/kg-0.4°C20552m1.3m/s
23:000%15%92J/kg-0.8°C22445m1.8m/s
Sun, Feb 22
24:000%15%125J/kg-1.1°C24135m1.9m/s
01:000%15%177J/kg-1.1°C24135m2.8m/s
02:0012%13%254J/kg-1.4°C24134m3m/s
03:000%11%204J/kg-1.6°C24135m3.4m/s
04:000%9.9%269J/kg-1.9°C21211m3.7m/s
05:000%8.5%305J/kg-2.4°C19743m4.2m/s
06:000%9.2%341J/kg-2.4°C24135m4.3m/s
07:000%25%429J/kg-3°C17051m4.1m/s
08:000%22%494J/kg-3.4°C24135m3.9m/s
09:000%36%563J/kg-3.8°C24134m3.4m/s
10:000%35%618J/kg-4°C24134m3.1m/s
11:000%37%647J/kg-4.1°C24135m3.3m/s
12:000%44%692J/kg-4.1°C24135m3.5m/s
13:000%43%720J/kg-4.2°C24135m3.6m/s
14:000%49%762J/kg-4.2°C24135m3.8m/s
15:000%49%804J/kg-4°C24135m3.6m/s
16:000%57%797J/kg-4.2°C24135m3.4m/s
17:0024%66%687J/kg-4°C18482m3m/s
18:000%100%608J/kg-3.6°C24134m1.8m/s
19:000%82%551J/kg-3.2°C24135m2.3m/s
20:0026%15%504J/kg-2.9°C24134m3.3m/s
21:000%15%424J/kg-2.6°C24135m4.2m/s
22:000%15%339J/kg-2.1°C24134m4.3m/s
23:0014%15%218J/kg-1.5°C24135m4.5m/s
Mon, Feb 23
24:000%15%166J/kg-1.2°C24134m4.7m/s
01:000%15%162J/kg-1.4°C24134m4.5m/s
02:000%15%183J/kg-1.4°C24135m4m/s
03:000%15%148J/kg-1.2°C24134m4.4m/s
04:000%15%102J/kg-0.8°C24135m4.4m/s
05:000%15%80J/kg-0.6°C24135m4.1m/s
06:000%15%46J/kg-0.4°C24134m4.5m/s
07:000%63%33J/kg0°C24134m4.5m/s
08:000%53%18J/kg0.4°C24134m4.8m/s
09:000%46%27J/kg0.5°C24135m3.7m/s
10:000%41%55J/kg0.4°C24135m3.4m/s
11:0017%42%82J/kg0.1°C24135m3.2m/s
12:0016%48%113J/kg0.9°C12126m3.5m/s
13:0014%50%159J/kg0.5°C17322m4.3m/s
14:0028%74%191J/kg0.3°C24135m5.1m/s
15:000%48%223J/kg-0.8°C24134m5.4m/s
16:000%58%277J/kg-1.3°C24135m5.8m/s
17:0018%97%246J/kg-1.5°C19879m6.1m/s
18:000%72%165J/kg-1.3°C24135m6.5m/s
19:000%54%171J/kg-1.5°C24135m6.4m/s
20:0018%15%200J/kg-1.6°C24135m5.4m/s
21:000%15%262J/kg-2°C24134m5.3m/s
22:000%15%302J/kg-2°C24134m4.5m/s
23:0014%15%291J/kg-2.2°C24135m3.8m/s
Tue, Feb 24
24:000%15%220J/kg-2.3°C24135m3.5m/s
01:000%15%176J/kg-1.4°C24134m3.8m/s
02:0014%14%133J/kg0.1°C23871m3.8m/s
03:000%14%81J/kg0.6°C24134m4.7m/s
04:000%15%48J/kg0.9°C24135m5m/s
05:0015%15%29J/kg1.1°C24135m5.1m/s
06:000%15%18J/kg1.2°C24134m5.7m/s
07:000%60%14J/kg1.2°C24135m6.1m/s
08:0015%63%6J/kg1.3°C24135m6.2m/s
09:000%58%24J/kg0.6°C24134m6m/s
10:000%52%29J/kg0.6°C24134m6.5m/s
11:0017%52%10J/kg0.7°C24134m6.8m/s
12:000%51%2J/kg0.8°C24134m6.3m/s
13:000%48%1J/kg0.8°C24134m5.7m/s
14:0019%49%1J/kg0.8°C24135m5.4m/s
15:000%37%11J/kg1.8°C24135m5.8m/s
16:000%40%22J/kg2.9°C24135m6.2m/s
17:000%25%32J/kg3.9°C24135m6.6m/s
18:000%29%31J/kg4.2°C24135m6.6m/s
19:000%35%29J/kg4.5°C24135m6.6m/s
20:0016%0%28J/kg4.8°C24135m6.5m/s
21:000%0%22J/kg5.2°C24135m6.2m/s
22:000%0%17J/kg5.7°C24135m5.8m/s
23:0013%0%11J/kg6.1°C24135m5.4m/s
Wed, Feb 25
24:000%0%7.7J/kg6.8°C24135m5.2m/s
01:000%0%4.3J/kg7.4°C24135m5m/s
02:000%0%1J/kg8°C24135m4.8m/s
03:000%0%1J/kg8.4°C24135m4.8m/s
04:000%0%1J/kg8.7°C24135m4.9m/s
05:000%0%1J/kg9°C24135m4.9m/s
06:000%0%0.67J/kg9.2°C24135m5.2m/s
07:000%15%0.33J/kg9.4°C24135m5.5m/s
How to read: colored cells show whether each predicate requirement is met; highlighted rows mean the full rule matched (an opportunity). For OR groups, only one branch is required, so some OR-branch predicates can be ✕ even in a matching hour.

What does Cloud Drama Score mean?

Inputs that drive the score

This derived score summarizes multiple raw weather signals. The table below shows the supporting inputs hour by hour, so you can see what's pushing the score up or down.

Time
Pacific/Honolulu
Air Pressure
hPa
CAPE
J/kg
High Clouds
%
Lifted Index
°C
Low Clouds
%
Mid-Level Clouds
%
Precipitation Chance
%
Rainfall
mm
Relative Humidity
%
Showers
mm
Simulated Reflectivity
dBZ
Solar Elevation
°
Total Cloud Coverage
%
Total Precipitation
mm
Wind Shear 0-3 km
m/s
Wind Shear 0-6 km
m/s
Wind Speed
m/s
Sun, Feb 22 Sunrise 06:51 Sunset 18:27
09:00
985hPa 563J/kg 0% -3.8°C 20% 0% 92% 0mm 75% 0.01mm -11dBZ 28° 20% 0mm - - 3m/s
10:00
985hPa 618J/kg 0% -4°C 22% 0% 88% 0mm 72% 0.17mm -11dBZ 40° 22% 0.06mm - - 3.1m/s
11:00
985hPa 647J/kg 0% -4.1°C 24% 0% 84% 0mm 71% 0.01mm -11dBZ 51° 24% 0.06mm 4.6m/s 7.1m/s 3.6m/s
12:00
984hPa 692J/kg 0% -4.1°C 30% 0% 83% 0mm 70% 0.01mm -2.6dBZ 58° 30% 0.13mm - - 3.8m/s
13:00
984hPa 720J/kg 0% -4.2°C 50% 0% 82% 0mm 69% 0.03mm 5.4dBZ 59° 50% 0.25mm - - 4.1m/s
14:00
983hPa 762J/kg 0% -4.2°C 46% 0% 81% 0mm 71% 0.06mm 13dBZ 53° 46% 0.38mm 8.3m/s 9.9m/s 4.2m/s
15:00
983hPa 804J/kg 0% -4°C 33% 0% 79% 0mm 73% 0.05mm 7dBZ 44° 33% 0.25mm - - 3.8m/s
16:00
983hPa 797J/kg 0% -4.2°C 32% 0% 77% 0mm 73% 0.05mm 0.65dBZ 32° 32% 0.56mm - - 3.6m/s
17:00
984hPa 687J/kg 0% -4°C 41% 0% 75% 0mm 71% 0.65mm -5.7dBZ 19° 41% 0.75mm 9.4m/s 12m/s 2.9m/s
18:00
984hPa 608J/kg 31% -3.6°C 39% 45% 77% 0mm 70% 0.11mm -1.7dBZ 5.7° 46% 0.81mm - - 1.2m/s
19:00
985hPa 551J/kg 74% -3.2°C 30% 70% 79% 0mm 72% 0.01mm 2.3dBZ -8.3° 80% 0.88mm - - 1.9m/s
20:00
985hPa 504J/kg 78% -2.9°C 30% 76% 82% 0mm 77% 0mm 6.3dBZ -22° 86% 0.88mm 11m/s 15m/s 3.5m/s
21:00
986hPa 424J/kg 34% -2.6°C 16% 76% 81% 0mm 80% 0mm 3dBZ -36° 76% 0mm - - 4.4m/s
22:00
987hPa 339J/kg 22% -2.1°C 0% 68% 80% 0mm 81% 0mm -0.29dBZ -50° 68% 0.06mm - - 4.1m/s
23:00
987hPa 218J/kg 51% -1.5°C 0% 18% 80% 0mm 82% 0mm -3.6dBZ -64° 61% 0.06mm 11m/s 13m/s 4.1m/s
Mon, Feb 23 Sunrise 06:50 Sunset 18:27
24:00
986hPa 166J/kg 0% -1.2°C 0% 50% 84% 0mm 83% 0mm -1.8dBZ -76° 50% 0.06mm - - 4.1m/s
01:00
986hPa 162J/kg 0% -1.4°C 0% 4% 88% 0mm 84% 0.02mm 0.02dBZ -78° 4% 0.06mm - - 4m/s
02:00
986hPa 183J/kg 0% -1.4°C 12% 14% 92% 0.01mm 85% 0.03mm 1.8dBZ -68° 23% 0.06mm 11m/s 8.6m/s 3.2m/s
03:00
986hPa 148J/kg 0% -1.2°C 12% 5% 90% 0mm 86% 0.02mm 2.1dBZ -54° 14% 0.06mm - - 3.7m/s
04:00
986hPa 102J/kg 0% -0.8°C 5% 5% 88% 0.01mm 87% 0.02mm 2.3dBZ -40° 7% 0.13mm - - 3.7m/s
05:00
986hPa 80J/kg 0% -0.6°C 12% 4% 86% 0mm 85% 0.04mm 2.5dBZ -26° 13% 0.19mm 8.6m/s 6.8m/s 3.6m/s
06:00
987hPa 46J/kg 0% -0.4°C 21% 4% 89% 0mm 85% 0.06mm 7.9dBZ -12° 23% 0.25mm - - 3.7m/s
07:00
987hPa 33J/kg 0% 0°C 21% 2% 92% 0mm 83% 0.02mm 13dBZ 1.7° 21% 0.25mm - - 3.9m/s
08:00
988hPa 18J/kg 0% 0.4°C 20% 0% 95% 0mm 79% 0.06mm 19dBZ 15° 20% 0.31mm 7.7m/s 9.8m/s 4.4m/s
09:00
989hPa 27J/kg 0% 0.5°C 17% 4% 92% 0mm 72% 0.08mm 20dBZ 28° 17% 0.06mm - - 3.9m/s
10:00
989hPa 55J/kg 0% 0.4°C 25% 4% 89% 0mm 68% 0.09mm 22dBZ 41° 25% 0.13mm - - 3.4m/s
11:00
989hPa 82J/kg 0% 0.1°C 28% 5% 87% 0mm 65% 0.1mm 24dBZ 51° 28% 0.25mm 9.5m/s 15m/s 3.2m/s
12:00
988hPa 113J/kg 0% 0.9°C 47% 5% 86% 0mm 67% 0.63mm 18dBZ 58° 47% 0.75mm - - 3.6m/s
13:00
987hPa 159J/kg 0% 0.5°C 52% 5% 84% 0mm 69% 0.43mm 12dBZ 59° 53% 1.1mm - - 4.9m/s
14:00
987hPa 191J/kg 0% 0.3°C 43% 42% 83% 0mm 71% 0.13mm 6.2dBZ 54° 54% 1.4mm 9.1m/s 18m/s 5.6m/s
15:00
987hPa 223J/kg 0% -0.8°C 38% 5% 67% 0mm 73% 0.07mm 5.8dBZ 44° 38% 0.19mm - - 5.8m/s
16:00
987hPa 277J/kg 0% -1.3°C 44% 5% 51% 0mm 77% 0.06mm 5.5dBZ 32° 44% 0.38mm - - 6.1m/s
17:00
987hPa 246J/kg 0% -1.5°C 38% 64% 35% 0mm 80% 0.41mm 5.1dBZ 19° 66% 0.63mm 8.5m/s 17m/s 6.2m/s
18:00
988hPa 165J/kg 0% -1.3°C 17% 94% 40% 0.01mm 81% 0.12mm 8.2dBZ 5.8° 94% 0.94mm - - 6.2m/s
19:00
988hPa 171J/kg 0% -1.5°C 14% 100% 46% 0.01mm 84% 0.02mm 11dBZ -8.2° 100% 1mm - - 5.7m/s
20:00
989hPa 200J/kg 0% -1.6°C 30% 78% 51% 0mm 84% 0.02mm 14dBZ -22° 78% 1mm 8.5m/s 18m/s 4.9m/s
21:00
990hPa 262J/kg 0% -2°C 22% 19% 49% 0mm 85% 0.03mm 12dBZ -36° 22% 0.06mm - - 4.7m/s
22:00
990hPa 302J/kg 0% -2°C 40% 27% 48% 0mm 84% 0.01mm 9dBZ -50° 40% 0.13mm - - 4m/s
23:00
990hPa 291J/kg 0% -2.2°C 8% 4% 46% 0mm 85% 0.08mm 6.4dBZ -64° 8% 0.13mm 8.6m/s 15m/s 3.5m/s
Tue, Feb 24 Sunrise 06:49 Sunset 18:27
24:00
989hPa 220J/kg 0% -2.3°C 7% 4% 47% 0.01mm 87% 0.02mm 7.2dBZ -75° 7% 0.13mm - - 3.3m/s
01:00
989hPa 176J/kg 0% -1.4°C 11% 1% 47% 0mm 88% 0.12mm 8.1dBZ -78° 11% 0.25mm - - 3.6m/s
02:00
989hPa 133J/kg 0% 0.1°C 7% 0% 48% 0mm 87% 0.08mm 8.9dBZ -67° 7% 0.31mm 9.5m/s 11m/s 3.6m/s
03:00
988hPa 81J/kg 0% 0.6°C 12% 0% 50% 0.01mm 88% 0.05mm 8.8dBZ -54° 12% 0.19mm - - 4.2m/s
04:00
988hPa 48J/kg 0% 0.9°C 11% 0% 51% 0mm 88% 0.06mm 8.8dBZ -40° 11% 0.31mm - - 4.3m/s
05:00
989hPa 29J/kg 0% 1.1°C 5% 0% 53% 0mm 87% 0.02mm 8.7dBZ -26° 6% 0.38mm 11m/s 14m/s 4.1m/s
06:00
989hPa 18J/kg 0% 1.2°C 10% 0% 57% 0mm 86% 0mm 4.9dBZ -12° 10% 0.44mm - - 4.7m/s
07:00
990hPa 14J/kg 0% 1.2°C 26% 0% 61% 0mm 86% 0.02mm 1.1dBZ 1.9° 26% 0.44mm - - 5.3m/s
08:00
990hPa 6J/kg 0% 1.3°C 41% 0% 65% 0mm 82% 0mm -2.7dBZ 15° 41% 0.44mm 10m/s 16m/s 5.5m/s
09:00
991hPa 24J/kg 0% 0.6°C 52% 0% 71% 0.01mm 79% 0.07mm 1.4dBZ 28° 52% 0.06mm - - 5.8m/s
10:00
991hPa 29J/kg 0% 0.6°C 48% 0% 76% 0mm 78% 0.02mm 5.4dBZ 41° 48% 0.13mm - - 6.3m/s
11:00
991hPa 10J/kg 0% 0.7°C 38% 0% 82% 0.01mm 76% 0.01mm 9.4dBZ 51° 38% 0.19mm 13m/s 19m/s 6.5m/s
12:00
990hPa 2J/kg 0% 0.8°C 59% 0% 85% 0mm 72% 0.01mm 9dBZ 59° 59% 0.19mm - - 6.2m/s
13:00
989hPa 1J/kg 0% 0.8°C 48% 0% 88% 0mm 70% 0mm 8.5dBZ 60° 48% 0.19mm - - 5.9m/s
14:00
989hPa 1J/kg 0% 0.8°C 32% 0% 92% 0mm 66% 0mm 8dBZ 54° 32% 0.25mm 12m/s 19m/s 5.9m/s
15:00
994hPa 11J/kg 0% 1.8°C 51% 0% 82% 0mm 68% 0.02mm 8.3dBZ 44° 51% 0.21mm - - 6.1m/s
16:00
1000hPa 22J/kg 0% 2.9°C 70% 0% 73% 0mm 71% 0.04mm 8.6dBZ 32° 70% 0.17mm - - 6.2m/s
17:00
1006hPa 32J/kg 0% 3.9°C 89% 0% 64% 0mm 74% 0.06mm 8.8dBZ 19° 89% 0.13mm 11m/s 18m/s 6.3m/s
18:00
1005hPa 31J/kg 0% 4.2°C 86% 0% 70% 0.01mm 73% 0.04mm 9.5dBZ 5.9° 86% 0.19mm - - 6.5m/s
19:00
1005hPa 29J/kg 0% 4.5°C 82% 0% 77% 0.02mm 73% 0.03mm 10dBZ -8.1° 82% 0.25mm - - 6.6m/s
20:00
1004hPa 28J/kg 0% 4.8°C 78% 0% 83% 0.03mm 72% 0.01mm 11dBZ -22° 78% 0.31mm 9.4m/s 18m/s 6.7m/s
21:00
1004hPa 22J/kg 0% 5.2°C 76% 0% 71% 0.02mm 70% 0.007mm 13dBZ -36° 76% 0.23mm - - 6.4m/s
22:00
1004hPa 17J/kg 0% 5.7°C 74% 0% 58% 0.01mm 67% 0.003mm 14dBZ -50° 74% 0.15mm - - 6m/s
23:00
1004hPa 11J/kg 0% 6.1°C 72% 0% 46% 0mm 65% 0mm 16dBZ -63° 72% 0.06mm 9.5m/s 13m/s 5.6m/s
Wed, Feb 25 Sunrise 06:48 Sunset 18:28
24:00
1004hPa 7.7J/kg 16% 6.8°C 66% 0% 43% 0mm 63% 0mm 13dBZ -75° 74% 0.06mm - - 5.4m/s
01:00
1005hPa 4.3J/kg 31% 7.4°C 60% 0% 40% 0mm 61% 0mm 11dBZ -77° 76% 0.06mm - - 5.1m/s
02:00
1005hPa 1J/kg 47% 8°C 55% 0% 38% 0mm 59% 0mm 8.2dBZ -67° 78% 0.06mm 10m/s 16m/s 4.9m/s
03:00
1005hPa 1J/kg 64% 8.4°C 38% 0% 38% 0mm 58% 0mm 3.6dBZ -54° 85% 0.04mm - - 5m/s
04:00
1005hPa 1J/kg 82% 8.7°C 21% 0% 39% 0mm 57% 0mm -0.88dBZ -40° 92% 0.02mm - - 5m/s
05:00
1006hPa 1J/kg 99% 9°C 4% 0% 39% 0mm 56% 0mm -5.4dBZ -26° 99% 0mm 9.1m/s 15m/s 5.1m/s
06:00
1005hPa 0.67J/kg 99% 9.2°C 4% 0% 39% 0mm 57% 0mm -10dBZ -12° 99% 0mm - - 5.2m/s
07:00
1004hPa 0.33J/kg 100% 9.4°C 4% 0% 39% 0mm 59% 0mm -15dBZ 2.1° 100% 0mm - - 5.4m/s
08:00
1003hPa 0J/kg 100% 9.6°C 4% 0% 39% 0mm 60% 0mm -20dBZ 15° 100% 0mm 7.5m/s 19m/s 5.5m/s
How to read: these inputs help produce the derived score; they are not requirements by themselves.

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