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Rule Fire Sky

Fire Sky Forecast for Manoa Falls, Hawaii

Honolulu, Hawaii, United States

Manoa Falls descends a dark basalt wall within dense rainforest, where bamboo, broad leaves, and the narrow trail create intimate vertical frames.

5 matching opportunities in the 14-day forecast.

Hourly forecast scores

Forecast valid from Oct 22, 2026, 9:00 PM UTC (one hour; not an observation)
Fiery Red Sky Potential
0%
Low Cloud Cover36%
Mid Cloud Cover0%
High Cloud Cover0%
Aerosol Optical Depth0.1
Sun Elevation52.5°

Upcoming Opportunities

When all conditions match, PhotoWeather marks an opportunity window.

Times shown in Pacific/Honolulu
fire-sky weather icon
First upcoming window
Excellent Fiery Red Sky at Sunrise
Manoa Falls
Fri, Oct 23 · 06:16–06:59 · 1h window
Medium confidence
64%
🔥Fiery Red Sky Potential84.6%
Low Cloud Cover: 1%
Mid Cloud Cover: 1%
High Cloud Cover: 33%
Aerosol Optical Depth: 0.1
fire-sky weather icon
Excellent Fiery Red Sky at Sunrise
Manoa Falls
Fri, Oct 23 · 18:00–18:14
🔥Fiery Red Sky Potential:82.9%
Medium
fire-sky weather icon
Excellent Fiery Red Sky at Sunrise
Manoa Falls
Sat, Oct 24 · 06:16–07:00
🔥Fiery Red Sky Potential:70%
Medium
fire-sky weather icon
Spectacular Fiery Red Sky at Sunset
Manoa Falls
Sun, Oct 25 · 18:00–18:13
🔥Fiery Red Sky Potential:85.4%
Medium
fire-sky weather icon
Excellent Fiery Red Sky at Sunset
Manoa Falls
Mon, Oct 26 · 18:00–18:12
🔥Fiery Red Sky Potential:73%
Low

71-hour requirements breakdown

When available, this detailed table covers only the stated 71-hour horizon (typically 72–168 hours, depending on available hourly data). Opportunity records above span the full 14-day forecast period, so this table does not explain that entire period. Times shown in Pacific/Honolulu.

Requirements breakdown is temporarily unavailable or expired. This does not mean no opportunities.

Supporting forecast inputs

Additional hourly values for interpreting the forecast and any derived scores. See the separate requirements breakdown for rule logic; missing values are unavailable.

Forecast time (Pacific/Honolulu)Aerosol Optical Depth (550nm)Clear Sky Probability (Ensemble)Cloud Cover Uncertainty (Ensemble)Dust AOD (550nm)Golden HourHigh CloudsLow CloudsMid-Level CloudsRH @ 700 hPaSmoke AOD (550nm)Solar ElevationSunshine Duration
Thu, Oct 22, 2026Sunrise · Sunset
0.0999%6%0.002Unavailable0%36%0%18%0.00852°3600seconds
0.181%6%0.002Unavailable0%41%10%17%0.00757°3600seconds
0.164%7%0.002Unavailable0%41%17%17%0.00756°3600seconds
0.146%7%0.002Unavailable0%34%3%17%0.00749°3600seconds
0.0934%10%0.002Unavailable0%22%0%18%0.00738°3600seconds
0.0923%14%0.001Unavailable0%22%1%18%0.00726°3600seconds
0.0911%17%0.001Unavailable1%2%0%19%0.00713°3600seconds
0.0911%16%0.001Unavailable5%4%1%24%0.0060.05°3471seconds
Night0.0910%16%0.001Unavailable0%4%1%30%0.006-14°0seconds
Night0.0910%15%0.001Unavailable0%4%2%35%0.006-28°0seconds
Night0.0929%18%0.001Unavailable2%2%2%39%0.006-42°0seconds
Night0.0949%22%0.001Unavailable67%3%2%42%0.006-56°0seconds
Night0.0968%25%0.001Unavailable64%3%1%45%0.006-69°0seconds
Fri, Oct 23, 2026Sunrise · Sunset
Night0.0960%24%0.001Unavailable35%3%1%42%0.005-79°0seconds
Night0.0953%23%0.001Unavailable50%5%3%39%0.005-76°0seconds
Night0.0945%22%0.001Unavailable29%1%3%36%0.005-63°0seconds
Night0.0941%26%0.001Unavailable61%0%4%38%0.005-50°0seconds
Night0.137%29%0.001Unavailable38%1%2%40%0.005-36°0seconds
Night0.133%33%0.001Unavailable32%1%2%42%0.005-22°0seconds
Night0.1130%31%0.001Unavailable33%1%1%44%0.005-7.7°0seconds
0.1126%29%0.001Unavailable9%2%5%45%0.0056°492seconds
0.1123%27%0.001Unavailable31%3%13%47%0.00519°3600seconds
0.1119%27%0.001Unavailable77%7%2%45%0.00532°3600seconds
0.1114%27%0.001Unavailable82%7%3%44%0.00543°3600seconds
0.1110%27%0.001Unavailable100%8%4%43%0.00652°3600seconds
0.117%24%0.001Unavailable90%13%4%41%0.00657°3600seconds
0.115%22%0.001Unavailable98%9%2%40%0.00655°3600seconds
0.112%19%0.001Unavailable98%7%2%38%0.00648°3600seconds
Unavailable1%16%UnavailableUnavailable87%9%2%38%Unavailable38°3600seconds
Unavailable1%12%UnavailableUnavailable87%11%0%37%Unavailable26°3600seconds
Unavailable0%9%UnavailableUnavailable95%9%0%37%Unavailable13°3600seconds
Unavailable0%11%UnavailableUnavailable87%5%0%35%Unavailable-0.18°3428seconds
NightUnavailable1%12%UnavailableUnavailable67%5%0%33%Unavailable-14°0seconds
NightUnavailable1%14%UnavailableUnavailable38%9%0%31%Unavailable-28°0seconds
NightUnavailable1%14%UnavailableUnavailable87%6%0%27%Unavailable-42°0seconds
NightUnavailable0%13%UnavailableUnavailable88%5%0%24%Unavailable-56°0seconds
NightUnavailable0%13%UnavailableUnavailable87%5%0%21%Unavailable-70°0seconds
Sat, Oct 24, 2026Sunrise · Sunset
NightUnavailable0%12%UnavailableUnavailable85%5%0%20%Unavailable-80°0seconds
NightUnavailable0%11%UnavailableUnavailable100%8%0%19%Unavailable-76°0seconds
NightUnavailable0%10%UnavailableUnavailable96%3%0%18%Unavailable-63°0seconds
NightUnavailable1%12%UnavailableUnavailable93%3%0%18%Unavailable-50°0seconds
NightUnavailable1%14%UnavailableUnavailable100%3%0%18%Unavailable-36°0seconds
NightUnavailable2%16%UnavailableUnavailable98%6%0%18%Unavailable-22°0seconds
NightUnavailable1%15%UnavailableUnavailable90%8%0%17%Unavailable-7.8°0seconds
Unavailable1%13%UnavailableUnavailable100%12%0%17%Unavailable5.9°0seconds
Unavailable0%12%UnavailableUnavailable100%10%0%16%Unavailable19°3600seconds
Unavailable0%13%UnavailableUnavailable100%12%0%16%Unavailable32°3600seconds
Unavailable1%13%UnavailableUnavailable100%23%0%15%Unavailable43°3600seconds
Unavailable1%14%UnavailableUnavailable100%45%0%14%Unavailable52°3600seconds
Unavailable1%14%UnavailableUnavailable100%45%0%15%Unavailable56°3600seconds
Unavailable1%14%UnavailableUnavailable96%49%0%16%Unavailable55°3600seconds
Unavailable1%14%UnavailableUnavailable98%23%0%16%Unavailable48°3600seconds
Unavailable1%15%UnavailableUnavailable98%16%0%16%Unavailable38°3600seconds
Unavailable2%16%UnavailableUnavailable87%5%0%16%Unavailable26°3600seconds
Unavailable2%17%UnavailableUnavailable100%30%0%16%Unavailable13°3600seconds
NightUnavailable2%16%UnavailableUnavailable100%20%0%14%Unavailable-0.43°3163seconds
NightUnavailable1%16%UnavailableUnavailable99%16%2%13%Unavailable-15°0seconds
NightUnavailable1%15%UnavailableUnavailable98%18%2%11%Unavailable-29°0seconds
NightUnavailable2%16%UnavailableUnavailable99%17%1%11%Unavailable-42°0seconds
NightUnavailable2%18%UnavailableUnavailable59%30%2%11%Unavailable-56°0seconds
NightUnavailable3%19%UnavailableUnavailable8%27%4%10%Unavailable-70°0seconds
Sun, Oct 25, 2026Sunrise · Sunset
NightUnavailable3%20%UnavailableUnavailable0%24%2%10%Unavailable-80°0seconds
NightUnavailable4%20%UnavailableUnavailable0%20%2%10%Unavailable-76°0seconds
NightUnavailable4%21%UnavailableUnavailable0%19%2%11%Unavailable-63°0seconds
NightUnavailable6%24%UnavailableUnavailable0%24%3%10%Unavailable-50°0seconds
NightUnavailable8%26%UnavailableUnavailable0%11%4%9.5%Unavailable-36°0seconds
NightUnavailable10%29%UnavailableUnavailable0%16%2%9%Unavailable-22°0seconds
NightUnavailable9%28%UnavailableUnavailable0%20%1%8.8%Unavailable-7.9°0seconds
Unavailable9%27%UnavailableUnavailable0%15%1%8.5%Unavailable5.8°268seconds
Unavailable8%26%UnavailableUnavailable0%9%0%8.3%Unavailable19°3600seconds
Unavailable9%27%UnavailableUnavailable0%5%0%7.1%Unavailable31°3600seconds
Unavailable10%27%UnavailableUnavailable0%5%0%6%Unavailable43°3600seconds

How this forecast is evaluated

See which weather signals PhotoWeather uses to identify Fire Sky conditions across Hawaii. The requirements and hourly values above show how those signals apply at Manoa Falls.

Explore Fire Sky conditions across Hawaii →

Recorded match history

Completed PhotoWeather forecast matches recorded for this exact rule at Manoa Falls during the last 365 days.

Last 30 days
3
recorded matching windows · 68% average confidence
Last 90 days
10
recorded matching windows · 71% average confidence
Last 365 days
18
recorded matching windows · 69% average confidence
Most frequent recorded start hour

06:00 local time, shared by 18 of 18 matches recorded in the last 365 days.

Most represented month

August, with 6 of 18 matches recorded in the last 365 days.

These figures use completed PhotoWeather MatchEvent records from the previous 365 days only. They describe recorded forecast matches, not observations, climatological probability, or a guarantee of future conditions.

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How this forecast is made

Opportunities are threshold-based signals: PhotoWeather checks whether forecast conditions match the rules for a photography scenario. They are planning guidance, not guarantees. Forecasts can change as new model runs arrive, and confidence generally decreases farther into the forecast horizon, so recheck conditions before travelling.

The weather forecast foundation comes through Open-Meteo , which aggregates models from weather agencies. PhotoWeather applies condition-specific thresholds and derived calculations; not every condition uses every model or data input.

How opportunities work → Weather data sources →

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