Rule Fire Sky

Fire Sky Forecast for Haleakala, Hawaii

Makawao, Hawaii, United States

Haleakalā's summit overlooks a vast erosional crater filled with cinder cones, whose repeated forms lead toward the island and Pacific horizon.

Currently

Real-time conditions

Fiery Red Sky Potential

Low Cloud Cover75%

Mid Cloud Cover0%

High Cloud Cover3%

Aerosol Optical Depth0.1

Sun Elevation41.6° (Daylight)

Upcoming Opportunities

When all conditions match, PhotoWeather marks an opportunity window.

Times shown in Pacific/Honolulu

No opportunities in the next 14 days

See which requirements block the most forecast hours below.

Most common blockers (92-hour forecast)

Fiery Red Sky Potential100% of hours
Golden Hour83% of hours
Precipitation Chance60% of hours

How this forecast is evaluated

See which weather signals PhotoWeather uses to identify Fire Sky conditions across Hawaii. The requirements and hourly values below show how those signals apply at Haleakala.

Explore Fire Sky conditions across Hawaii →

Recorded match history

Completed PhotoWeather forecast matches recorded for this exact rule at Haleakala during the last 365 days.

Last 30 days

recorded matching window · 80% average confidence

Last 90 days

recorded matching windows · 69% average confidence

Last 365 days

recorded matching windows · 67% average confidence

Only 6 completed matches are recorded in the last 365 days—insufficient history to identify a reliable typical start time or month.

These figures use completed PhotoWeather MatchEvent records from the previous 365 days only. They describe recorded forecast matches, not observations, climatological probability, or a guarantee of future conditions.

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92-hour requirements breakdown

When available, the detailed table below covers only the stated 92-hour horizon (typically 72–168 hours, depending on available hourly data). Opportunity records above span the next 14 days, so this table does not explain that entire 14-day period.

What passed or failed, hour by hour

0matching hours in the next 92 hours

AND logic: all conditions required

Meets requirement

Misses requirement

Time Pacific/Honolulu	Golden Hour Any	Fiery Red Sky Potential ≥ 65.0%	Precipitation Chance ≤ 15.0%	Visibility ≥ 8000.0m
Tue, Jul 14
18:00	✓	22%	50%	1051m
19:00	✓	32%	57%	8365m
20:00	✕	20%	64%	10627m
21:00	✕	25%	24%	24134m
22:00	✕	29%	27%	24135m
23:00	✕	13%	29%	21596m
Wed, Jul 15
24:00	✕	13%	38%	10008m
01:00	✕	20%	47%	5335m
02:00	✕	9.4%	56%	24135m
03:00	✕	10%	38%	24135m
04:00	✕	14%	36%	24135m
05:00	✓	23%	35%	24135m
06:00	✓	46%	55%	24135m
07:00	✕	19%	75%	8366m
08:00	✕	25%	95%	8429m
09:00	✕	17%	65%	23957m
10:00	✕	14%	73%	23971m
11:00	✕	14%	82%	24134m
12:00	✕	14%	85%	24135m
13:00	✕	15%	87%	19202m
14:00	✕	9.4%	90%	15347m
15:00	✕	9.7%	79%	12528m
16:00	✕	7.4%	67%	1237m
17:00	✕	15%	56%	1481m
18:00	✓	12%	65%	14437m
19:00	✓	33%	73%	22249m
20:00	✕	17%	82%	10886m
21:00	✕	8.8%	54%	10135m
22:00	✕	9.2%	27%	7327m
23:00	✕	5.8%	0%	9952m
Thu, Jul 16
24:00	✕	5.2%	0%	14724m
01:00	✕	5%	0%	24135m
02:00	✕	4.7%	0%	24135m
03:00	✕	4.8%	8.7%	24134m
04:00	✕	15%	17%	8656m
05:00	✓	16%	26%	8299m
06:00	✓	49%	30%	12162m
07:00	✕	17%	34%	24135m
08:00	✕	17%	39%	726m
09:00	✕	17%	40%	9082m
10:00	✕	16%	42%	8705m
11:00	✕	17%	44%	7816m
12:00	✕	20%	56%	8147m
13:00	✕	20%	69%	7506m
14:00	✕	17%	82%	6868m
15:00	✕	16%	55%	4654m
16:00	✕	11%	27%	1196m
17:00	✕	18%	0%	6948m
18:00	✓	18%	13%	9579m
19:00	✓	53%	26%	21057m
20:00	✕	10%	39%	12565m
21:00	✕	13%	35%	13304m
22:00	✕	10%	31%	14158m
23:00	✕	9.5%	27%	17560m
Fri, Jul 17
24:00	✕	12%	26%	16893m
01:00	✕	16%	24%	14887m
02:00	✕	30%	22%	14870m
03:00	✕	34%	15%	24135m
04:00	✕	21%	7.4%	24135m
05:00	✓	21%	0%	24135m
06:00	✓	52%	13%	24134m
07:00	✕	28%	26%	24134m
08:00	✕	28%	39%	24134m
09:00	✕	29%	29%	8620m
10:00	✕	28%	19%	8911m
11:00	✕	18%	8.3%	10010m
12:00	✕	17%	5.5%	18986m
13:00	✕	12%	2.8%	19062m
14:00	✕	8.1%	0%	19704m
15:00	✕	17%	0%	8627m
16:00	✕	17%	0%	2005m
17:00	✕	17%	0%	5051m
18:00	✓	17%	13%	2942m
19:00	✓	40%	26%	656m
20:00	✕	9.8%	39%	1272m
21:00	✕	0%	39%	8893m
22:00	✕	0%	39%	16514m
23:00	✕	0%	39%	24135m
Sat, Jul 18
24:00	✕	0%	33%	24135m
01:00	✕	0%	28%	24135m
02:00	✕	0%	22%	24135m
03:00	✕	0%	15%	24135m
04:00	✕	0%	7.4%	24135m
05:00	✓	0%	0%	24135m
06:00	✓	30%	0%	24135m
07:00	✕	0%	0%	24135m
08:00	✕	0%	0%	24135m
09:00	✕	0%	0%	24135m
10:00	✕	0%	0%	24135m
11:00	✕	0%	0%	24135m
12:00	✕	0%	13%	24135m
13:00	✕	0%	26%	24135m

How to read: colored cells show whether each predicate requirement is met; highlighted rows mean the full rule matched (an opportunity).

What does Fiery Red Sky Potential mean?

Inputs that drive the score

This derived score summarizes multiple raw weather signals. The table below shows the supporting inputs hour by hour, so you can see what's pushing the score up or down.

Time Pacific/Honolulu	Aerosol Optical Depth (550nm)	Clear Sky Probability (Ensemble) %	Cloud Cover Uncertainty (Ensemble) %	Dust AOD (550nm)	Golden Hour	High Clouds %	Low Clouds %	Mid-Level Clouds %	RH @ 700 hPa %	Smoke AOD (550nm)	Solar Elevation °	Sunshine Duration seconds
Wed, Jul 15 Sunrise 05:53 Sunset 19:09
16:00 ☾	0.08	45%	11%	0.001	-	3%	75%	0%	42%	0.004	42°	3600seconds
17:00 ☾	0.08	24%	12%	0.001	-	2%	60%	0%	45%	0.003	28°	3600seconds
18:00 ☾	0.08	24%	12%	0.001	-	2%	45%	0%	50%	0.003	14°	3600seconds
19:00 ☾	0.08	24%	13%	0.001	-	0%	43%	0%	55%	0.003	1.6°	3600seconds
20:00 ☾	0.08	24%	13%	0	-	1%	43%	0%	59%	0.003	-11°	3600seconds
21:00 ☾	0.08	41%	16%	0	-	2%	65%	0%	56%	0.003	-23°	0seconds
22:00 ☾	0.08	57%	18%	0	-	2%	39%	0%	52%	0.003	-34°	0seconds
23:00 ☾	0.09	74%	21%	0	-	0%	35%	0%	48%	0.003	-42°	0seconds
Thu, Jul 16 Sunrise 05:53 Sunset 19:09
24:00 ☾	0.09	69%	22%	0	-	0%	37%	0%	45%	0.002	-47°	0seconds
01:00 ☾	0.09	64%	22%	0	-	0%	32%	0%	41%	0.002	-47°	0seconds
02:00 ☾	0.09	59%	23%	0	-	0%	11%	0%	38%	0.002	-43°	0seconds
03:00 ☾	0.09	52%	28%	0	-	0%	3%	0%	35%	0.002	-34°	0seconds
04:00 ☾	0.08	46%	34%	0	-	1%	7%	0%	31%	0.002	-24°	0seconds
05:00 ☾	0.08	39%	39%	0	-	0%	12%	0%	28%	0.002	-12°	0seconds
06:00	0.08	36%	37%	0	-	0%	41%	0%	27%	0.002	1°	0seconds
07:00	0.07	34%	34%	0	-	0%	64%	0%	25%	0.002	14°	0seconds
08:00	0.07	31%	32%	0	-	0%	42%	0%	24%	0.002	27°	0seconds
09:00	0.06	39%	32%	0	-	2%	36%	0%	25%	0.002	41°	3600seconds
10:00	0.06	46%	33%	0	-	1%	18%	0%	26%	0.002	55°	3600seconds
11:00	0.07	54%	33%	0	-	4%	44%	0%	27%	0.003	69°	3600seconds
12:00	0.06	54%	30%	0	-	4%	46%	0%	34%	0.003	83°	3600seconds
13:00	0.07	53%	26%	0	-	6%	48%	0%	41%	0.003	83°	3600seconds
14:00 ☾	0.08	53%	23%	0	-	5%	72%	0%	48%	0.003	69°	3600seconds
15:00 ☾	0.08	58%	23%	0	-	5%	77%	0%	56%	0.003	55°	3600seconds
16:00 ☾	0.09	62%	23%	0	-	5%	65%	0%	63%	0.003	42°	3600seconds
17:00 ☾	0.1	67%	23%	0	-	5%	63%	0%	71%	0.003	28°	3600seconds
18:00 ☾	0.11	68%	22%	0	-	14%	54%	0%	68%	0.003	14°	3600seconds
19:00 ☾	0.11	68%	20%	0.001	-	4%	43%	0%	66%	0.003	1.5°	3600seconds
20:00 ☾	0.11	69%	19%	0.001	-	5%	31%	0%	63%	0.003	-11°	3600seconds
21:00 ☾	0.11	74%	18%	0.001	-	42%	45%	0%	56%	0.003	-23°	0seconds
22:00 ☾	0.11	80%	17%	0.001	-	5%	55%	0%	49%	0.003	-34°	0seconds
23:00 ☾	0.11	85%	16%	0.001	-	5%	52%	0%	41%	0.004	-42°	0seconds
Fri, Jul 17 Sunrise 05:53 Sunset 19:08
24:00 ☾	0.11	87%	15%	0.001	-	5%	49%	0%	37%	0.004	-47°	0seconds
01:00 ☾	0.1	88%	14%	0.001	-	11%	53%	0%	33%	0.004	-47°	0seconds
02:00 ☾	0.11	90%	13%	0.001	-	95%	43%	0%	29%	0.004	-43°	0seconds
03:00 ☾	-	86%	19%	-	-	33%	31%	0%	27%	-	-34°	0seconds
04:00 ☾	-	83%	24%	-	-	5%	30%	0%	25%	-	-24°	0seconds
05:00 ☾	-	79%	30%	-	-	36%	30%	0%	23%	-	-12°	0seconds
06:00	-	77%	29%	-	-	87%	38%	0%	20%	-	0.93°	0seconds
07:00	-	76%	28%	-	-	72%	40%	0%	18%	-	14°	0seconds
08:00	-	74%	27%	-	-	77%	42%	0%	15%	-	27°	0seconds
09:00	-	74%	27%	-	-	55%	41%	0%	14%	-	41°	3600seconds
10:00	-	75%	26%	-	-	88%	46%	0%	12%	-	55°	3600seconds
11:00	-	75%	26%	-	-	36%	55%	0%	10%	-	69°	3600seconds
12:00	-	74%	25%	-	-	5%	66%	0%	10%	-	83°	3600seconds
13:00	-	72%	25%	-	-	16%	72%	0%	10%	-	83°	3600seconds
14:00 ☾	-	71%	24%	-	-	3%	69%	0%	10%	-	69°	3600seconds
15:00 ☾	-	68%	26%	-	-	0%	62%	0%	11%	-	55°	3600seconds
16:00 ☾	-	66%	27%	-	-	1%	67%	0%	12%	-	42°	3600seconds
17:00 ☾	-	63%	29%	-	-	1%	70%	0%	13%	-	28°	3600seconds
18:00 ☾	-	64%	28%	-	-	0%	70%	0%	12%	-	14°	3600seconds
19:00 ☾	-	66%	28%	-	-	0%	61%	0%	12%	-	1.5°	3600seconds
20:00 ☾	-	67%	27%	-	-	0%	56%	0%	12%	-	-12°	3600seconds
21:00 ☾	-	71%	26%	-	-	0%	41%	0%	11%	-	-23°	2400seconds
22:00 ☾	-	75%	25%	-	-	0%	25%	0%	11%	-	-34°	1200seconds
23:00 ☾	-	79%	24%	-	-	0%	10%	0%	10%	-	-43°	0seconds
Sat, Jul 18 Sunrise 05:54 Sunset 19:08
24:00 ☾	-	78%	25%	-	-	0%	7%	0%	12%	-	-47°	0seconds
01:00 ☾	-	77%	27%	-	-	0%	3%	0%	13%	-	-48°	0seconds
02:00 ☾	-	76%	28%	-	-	0%	0%	0%	15%	-	-43°	0seconds
03:00 ☾	-	71%	29%	-	-	0%	0%	0%	20%	-	-35°	1200seconds
04:00 ☾	-	67%	31%	-	-	0%	0%	0%	25%	-	-24°	2400seconds
05:00 ☾	-	62%	32%	-	-	0%	0%	0%	31%	-	-12°	3600seconds
06:00	-	62%	31%	-	-	0%	0%	0%	33%	-	0.85°	3600seconds
07:00	-	63%	30%	-	-	0%	1%	0%	36%	-	14°	3600seconds
08:00	-	63%	29%	-	-	0%	1%	0%	39%	-	27°	3600seconds
09:00	-	60%	32%	-	-	0%	1%	0%	42%	-	41°	3600seconds
10:00	-	58%	35%	-	-	0%	1%	0%	45%	-	55°	3600seconds
11:00	-	55%	38%	-	-	0%	1%	0%	48%	-	69°	3600seconds
12:00	-	55%	36%	-	-	0%	4%	0%	46%	-	83°	3600seconds
13:00	-	54%	34%	-	-	0%	8%	0%	44%	-	83°	3600seconds
14:00 ☾	-	54%	32%	-	-	0%	11%	0%	42%	-	69°	3600seconds
15:00 ☾	-	57%	29%	-	-	3%	8%	0%	39%	-	55°	2400seconds

How to read: these inputs help produce the derived score; they are not requirements by themselves.

How this forecast is made

Opportunities are threshold-based signals: PhotoWeather checks whether forecast conditions match the rules for a photography scenario. They are planning guidance, not guarantees. Forecasts can change as new model runs arrive, and confidence generally decreases farther into the forecast horizon, so recheck conditions before travelling.

The weather forecast foundation comes through Open-Meteo , which aggregates models from weather agencies. PhotoWeather applies condition-specific thresholds and derived calculations; not every condition uses every model or data input.

How opportunities work → Weather data sources →

Forecast generated

Jul 16, 2026, 1:02 AM UTC

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