Rule Fire Sky

Fire Sky Forecast for Haleakala, Hawaii

Makawao, Hawaii, United States

Haleakalā's summit overlooks a vast erosional crater filled with cinder cones, whose repeated forms lead toward the island and Pacific horizon.

Currently

Real-time conditions

Fiery Red Sky Potential

Low Cloud Cover75%

Mid Cloud Cover77%

High Cloud Cover46%

Aerosol Optical Depth0.1

Sun Elevation39.4° (Daylight)

Upcoming Opportunities

When all conditions match, PhotoWeather marks an opportunity window.

Times shown in Pacific/Honolulu

No opportunities in the next 14 days

See which requirements block the most forecast hours below.

Most common blockers (86-hour forecast)

Fiery Red Sky Potential100% of hours
Golden Hour83% of hours
Visibility58% of hours

How this forecast is evaluated

See which weather signals PhotoWeather uses to identify Fire Sky conditions across Hawaii. The requirements and hourly values below show how those signals apply at Haleakala.

Explore Fire Sky conditions across Hawaii →

Recorded match history

Completed PhotoWeather forecast matches recorded for this exact rule at Haleakala during the last 365 days.

Last 30 days

recorded matching windows · 70% average confidence

Last 90 days

recorded matching windows · 69% average confidence

Last 365 days

recorded matching windows · 67% average confidence

Most frequent recorded start hour

06:00 local time, shared by 11 of 11 matches recorded in the last 365 days.

Most represented month

August, with 4 of 11 matches recorded in the last 365 days.

These figures use completed PhotoWeather MatchEvent records from the previous 365 days only. They describe recorded forecast matches, not observations, climatological probability, or a guarantee of future conditions.

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86-hour requirements breakdown

When available, the detailed table below covers only the stated 86-hour horizon (typically 72–168 hours, depending on available hourly data). Opportunity records above span the next 14 days, so this table does not explain that entire 14-day period.

What passed or failed, hour by hour

0matching hours in the next 86 hours

AND logic: all conditions required

Meets requirement

Misses requirement

Time Pacific/Honolulu	Golden Hour Any	Fiery Red Sky Potential ≥ 65.0%	Precipitation Chance ≤ 15.0%	Visibility ≥ 8000.0m
Sat, Aug 22
18:00	✓	29%	13%	10298m
19:00	✓	59%	26%	10545m
20:00	✕	31%	39%	24134m
21:00	✕	21%	0%	14554m
22:00	✕	17%	0%	13652m
23:00	✕	15%	0%	24134m
Sun, Aug 23
24:00	✕	9.5%	0%	8386m
01:00	✕	14%	0%	8490m
02:00	✕	29%	0%	12100m
03:00	✕	16%	0%	8346m
04:00	✕	20%	0%	8318m
05:00	✓	17%	0%	8429m
06:00	✓	40%	19%	13112m
07:00	✕	16%	37%	1776m
08:00	✕	11%	56%	8401m
09:00	✕	24%	62%	24135m
10:00	✕	18%	68%	20576m
11:00	✕	26%	74%	9545m
12:00	✕	26%	77%	8475m
13:00	✕	25%	80%	8356m
14:00	✕	19%	83%	357m
15:00	✕	19%	69%	211m
16:00	✕	19%	54%	128m
17:00	✕	22%	40%	243m
18:00	✓	12%	54%	1120m
19:00	✓	25%	68%	174m
20:00	✕	21%	82%	379m
21:00	✕	31%	74%	338m
22:00	✕	31%	66%	4915m
23:00	✕	33%	58%	7792m
Mon, Aug 24
24:00	✕	33%	61%	6696m
01:00	✕	29%	65%	7528m
02:00	✕	30%	69%	4203m
03:00	✕	23%	64%	1251m
04:00	✕	25%	60%	270m
05:00	✓	26%	56%	237m
06:00	✓	33%	61%	195m
07:00	✕	23%	66%	405m
08:00	✕	24%	72%	410m
09:00	✕	20%	57%	1373m
10:00	✕	21%	41%	3925m
11:00	✕	24%	26%	8312m
12:00	✕	22%	23%	8550m
13:00	✕	18%	20%	4688m
14:00	✕	14%	17%	12146m
15:00	✕	18%	11%	11918m
16:00	✕	16%	5.6%	1253m
17:00	✕	19%	0%	545m
18:00	✓	20%	0%	965m
19:00	✓	50%	0%	829m
20:00	✕	17%	0%	752m
21:00	✕	18%	0%	788m
22:00	✕	18%	0%	772m
23:00	✕	11%	0%	296m
Tue, Aug 25
24:00	✕	15%	13%	8823m
01:00	✕	18%	26%	4086m
02:00	✕	21%	39%	8284m
03:00	✕	21%	26%	6420m
04:00	✕	12%	13%	5392m
05:00	✓	12%	0%	8242m
06:00	✓	22%	0%	4912m
07:00	✕	10%	0%	5757m
08:00	✕	8.5%	0%	1289m
09:00	✕	2%	0%	147m
10:00	✕	0.8%	0%	312m
11:00	✕	2.3%	0%	328m
12:00	✕	0.5%	0%	495m
13:00	✕	5.1%	0%	526m
14:00	✕	14%	0%	693m
15:00	✕	0%	0%	8507m
16:00	✕	0%	0%	16321m
17:00	✕	0%	0%	24135m
18:00	✓	0%	13%	24135m
19:00	✓	27%	26%	24135m
20:00	✕	0%	39%	24135m
21:00	✕	0%	26%	24135m
22:00	✕	0%	13%	24135m
23:00	✕	0%	0%	24135m
Wed, Aug 26
24:00	✕	0%	7.4%	24135m
01:00	✕	0%	15%	24135m
02:00	✕	0%	22%	24135m
03:00	✕	0%	15%	24135m
04:00	✕	0%	7.4%	24135m
05:00	✓	0%	0%	24135m
06:00	✓	33%	13%	24135m
07:00	✕	0%	26%	24135m

How to read: colored cells show whether each predicate requirement is met; highlighted rows mean the full rule matched (an opportunity).

What does Fiery Red Sky Potential mean?

Inputs that drive the score

This derived score summarizes multiple raw weather signals. The table below shows the supporting inputs hour by hour, so you can see what's pushing the score up or down.

Time Pacific/Honolulu	Aerosol Optical Depth (550nm)	Clear Sky Probability (Ensemble) %	Cloud Cover Uncertainty (Ensemble) %	Dust AOD (550nm)	Golden Hour	High Clouds %	Low Clouds %	Mid-Level Clouds %	RH @ 700 hPa %	Smoke AOD (550nm)	Solar Elevation °	Sunshine Duration seconds
Sun, Aug 23 Sunrise 06:06 Sunset 18:48
09:00	0.09	35%	22%	0.001	-	46%	75%	77%	59%	0.005	39°	3600seconds
10:00	0.08	44%	30%	0.001	-	6%	50%	24%	71%	0.004	53°	3600seconds
11:00	0.09	52%	37%	0	-	14%	55%	48%	83%	0.003	67°	3600seconds
12:00	0.09	46%	34%	0	-	62%	54%	29%	86%	0.003	78°	3600seconds
13:00	0.1	39%	32%	0	-	89%	53%	14%	88%	0.003	78°	3600seconds
14:00 ☾	0.11	33%	29%	0	-	80%	58%	5%	91%	0.003	66°	3600seconds
15:00 ☾	0.11	23%	26%	0	-	73%	61%	5%	93%	0.003	52°	3600seconds
16:00 ☾	0.11	14%	22%	0	-	86%	81%	19%	94%	0.003	38°	3600seconds
17:00 ☾	0.11	4%	19%	0	-	100%	72%	14%	95%	0.003	24°	3600seconds
18:00 ☾	0.1	4%	18%	0	-	21%	76%	30%	93%	0.003	10°	3600seconds
19:00 ☾	0.1	3%	18%	0	-	5%	77%	11%	90%	0.003	-3.4°	3600seconds
20:00 ☾	0.1	3%	17%	0	-	8%	68%	16%	88%	0.003	-17°	3600seconds
21:00 ☾	0.1	14%	20%	0	-	68%	69%	13%	87%	0.003	-30°	0seconds
22:00 ☾	0.1	25%	24%	0	-	83%	64%	5%	85%	0.003	-42°	0seconds
23:00 ☾	0.1	36%	27%	0	-	100%	78%	5%	84%	0.003	-52°	0seconds
Mon, Aug 24 Sunrise 06:07 Sunset 18:47
24:00 ☾	0.1	33%	26%	0	-	100%	73%	10%	85%	0.003	-57°	0seconds
01:00 ☾	0.1	31%	24%	0	-	100%	62%	5%	86%	0.003	-57°	0seconds
02:00 ☾	0.11	28%	23%	0	-	100%	75%	5%	88%	0.003	-51°	0seconds
03:00 ☾	0.11	25%	23%	0	-	100%	78%	5%	87%	0.003	-41°	0seconds
04:00 ☾	0.12	22%	23%	0	-	93%	83%	6%	87%	0.003	-29°	0seconds
05:00 ☾	0.12	19%	23%	0	-	94%	84%	8%	87%	0.003	-16°	0seconds
06:00 ☾	0.12	17%	22%	0	-	95%	82%	34%	86%	0.003	-2.3°	0seconds
07:00	0.11	16%	20%	0	-	64%	75%	40%	86%	0.003	11°	0seconds
08:00	0.1	14%	19%	0	-	93%	72%	29%	85%	0.003	25°	0seconds
09:00	0.1	22%	19%	0	-	60%	56%	27%	85%	0.003	39°	3600seconds
10:00	0.11	30%	19%	0	-	29%	54%	35%	85%	0.003	53°	3600seconds
11:00	0.11	38%	19%	0	-	33%	48%	41%	85%	0.003	67°	3600seconds
12:00	0.12	44%	19%	0	-	10%	43%	42%	87%	0.003	78°	3600seconds
13:00	0.12	51%	18%	0	-	10%	49%	50%	89%	0.003	77°	3600seconds
14:00 ☾	0.13	57%	18%	0	-	8%	55%	65%	91%	0.003	66°	3600seconds
15:00 ☾	-	60%	21%	-	-	5%	54%	71%	87%	-	52°	3600seconds
16:00 ☾	-	64%	24%	-	-	5%	55%	62%	83%	-	38°	3600seconds
17:00 ☾	-	67%	27%	-	-	4%	59%	68%	79%	-	24°	3600seconds
18:00 ☾	-	65%	26%	-	-	4%	51%	65%	77%	-	10°	3600seconds
19:00 ☾	-	63%	26%	-	-	0%	54%	64%	75%	-	-3.6°	3600seconds
20:00 ☾	-	61%	25%	-	-	0%	49%	65%	74%	-	-17°	3600seconds
21:00 ☾	-	63%	24%	-	-	1%	46%	54%	73%	-	-30°	0seconds
22:00 ☾	-	64%	24%	-	-	5%	49%	9%	73%	-	-42°	0seconds
23:00 ☾	-	66%	23%	-	-	5%	60%	9%	72%	-	-52°	0seconds
Tue, Aug 25 Sunrise 06:07 Sunset 18:46
24:00 ☾	-	63%	24%	-	-	5%	59%	2%	72%	-	-58°	0seconds
01:00 ☾	-	59%	25%	-	-	5%	65%	1%	72%	-	-57°	0seconds
02:00 ☾	-	56%	26%	-	-	16%	78%	1%	72%	-	-51°	0seconds
03:00 ☾	-	54%	29%	-	-	99%	75%	0%	72%	-	-41°	0seconds
04:00 ☾	-	53%	33%	-	-	100%	75%	0%	71%	-	-29°	0seconds
05:00 ☾	-	51%	36%	-	-	96%	76%	0%	70%	-	-16°	0seconds
06:00 ☾	-	49%	35%	-	-	7%	78%	0%	70%	-	-2.4°	0seconds
07:00	-	48%	33%	-	-	22%	75%	0%	70%	-	11°	0seconds
08:00	-	46%	32%	-	-	6%	73%	0%	70%	-	25°	0seconds
09:00	-	51%	32%	-	-	5%	74%	0%	70%	-	39°	3600seconds
10:00	-	57%	31%	-	-	5%	71%	0%	70%	-	53°	3600seconds
11:00	-	62%	31%	-	-	5%	76%	0%	70%	-	67°	3600seconds
12:00	-	63%	30%	-	-	6%	79%	0%	69%	-	78°	3600seconds
13:00	-	64%	28%	-	-	4%	79%	0%	69%	-	77°	3600seconds
14:00 ☾	-	65%	27%	-	-	1%	76%	0%	69%	-	65°	3600seconds
15:00 ☾	-	66%	27%	-	-	3%	57%	0%	66%	-	52°	2400seconds
16:00 ☾	-	66%	27%	-	-	4%	38%	0%	63%	-	38°	1200seconds
17:00 ☾	-	67%	27%	-	-	5%	18%	0%	60%	-	24°	0seconds
18:00 ☾	-	68%	26%	-	-	3%	36%	0%	49%	-	10°	0seconds
19:00 ☾	-	68%	25%	-	-	2%	54%	0%	38%	-	-3.8°	0seconds
20:00 ☾	-	69%	24%	-	-	0%	72%	0%	26%	-	-17°	0seconds
21:00 ☾	-	70%	25%	-	-	2%	49%	0%	26%	-	-30°	0seconds
22:00 ☾	-	70%	26%	-	-	3%	26%	0%	25%	-	-42°	0seconds
23:00 ☾	-	71%	27%	-	-	5%	3%	0%	24%	-	-52°	0seconds
Wed, Aug 26 Sunrise 06:07 Sunset 18:45
24:00 ☾	-	72%	25%	-	-	3%	5%	0%	23%	-	-58°	0seconds
01:00 ☾	-	73%	24%	-	-	2%	6%	0%	22%	-	-58°	0seconds
02:00 ☾	-	74%	22%	-	-	0%	8%	0%	20%	-	-51°	0seconds
03:00 ☾	-	74%	22%	-	-	1%	5%	0%	20%	-	-41°	1200seconds
04:00 ☾	-	75%	23%	-	-	2%	3%	0%	19%	-	-29°	2400seconds
05:00 ☾	-	75%	23%	-	-	2%	0%	0%	18%	-	-16°	3600seconds
06:00 ☾	-	76%	22%	-	-	3%	3%	0%	18%	-	-2.4°	3600seconds
07:00	-	77%	20%	-	-	4%	6%	0%	19%	-	11°	3600seconds
08:00	-	78%	19%	-	-	5%	8%	0%	19%	-	25°	3600seconds

How to read: these inputs help produce the derived score; they are not requirements by themselves.

How this forecast is made

Opportunities are threshold-based signals: PhotoWeather checks whether forecast conditions match the rules for a photography scenario. They are planning guidance, not guarantees. Forecasts can change as new model runs arrive, and confidence generally decreases farther into the forecast horizon, so recheck conditions before travelling.

The weather forecast foundation comes through Open-Meteo , which aggregates models from weather agencies. PhotoWeather applies condition-specific thresholds and derived calculations; not every condition uses every model or data input.

How opportunities work → Weather data sources →

Forecast generated

Aug 23, 2026, 6:59 PM UTC

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