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Rule Morning Frost

Stow-on-the-Wold - Morning Frost - Cotswolds

Stow on the Wold, England, United Kingdom

Frost crystals on calm, cold mornings near sunrise

No opportunities right now
Here’s what usually blocks matches

No Morning Frost opportunities in the next 14 days

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Rule requirements (key thresholds)
Time Window · Sunrise -45m to +90m Frost Probability · ≥ 60.0% Wind Speed · ≤ 1.5m/s

Tip: Scroll down to the 72-hour table to see exactly which condition fails hour by hour.

Most common blockers (next 72 hours)
Frost Probability 100% failing
Wind Speed 93% failing
Time Window 88% failing

Currently

Real-time conditions
Soil Temperature11.9°C
Dew Point9.4°C (moderate dew point)
Wind Speed1.8m/s (calm conditions)
Cloud Cover47%

Upcoming Opportunities

When all conditions match, PhotoWeather marks an opportunity window.

Times shown in Europe/London

No opportunities in the next 10 days

See the blocker timeline below to understand which conditions are preventing matches.

What this forecast looks for

Plain-language explanation from the rule

This forecast identifies when hard frost transforms the Cotswolds' honey-stone architecture and pastoral landscapes into crystalline winter wonderlands. We track overnight minimum temperatures, clear sky conditions, and ground frost risk to predict optimal frosted morning photography.

The Cotswolds' inland position and elevation (typically 200-330m) create reliable frost conditions during winter anticyclones. Clear skies and light winds allow radiative cooling to create heavy frost deposits on thatched roofs, dry stone walls, and riverside vegetation—all set against honey-colored Jurassic limestone that glows warmly against frozen foregrounds.

What makes Cotswolds frost photography distinctive:

  • Frosted thatch - Castle Combe's thatched cottages with heavy frost on golden stone—quintessentially English winter scenes
  • Arlington Row ice - Bibury's iconic weavers' cottages with frosted rooflines and icy River Coln creating mirror reflections
  • Frozen waterways - Bourton-on-the-Water's bridges with icy stream edges, Lower Slaughter's mill with frozen mill race
  • Churchyard frost - Painswick's famous 99 yew trees with frost-laden branches surrounding ancient gravestones

The most photogenic frost occurs during settled high pressure periods (December-February), particularly after clear, calm nights. Arlington Row at Bibury is England's most photographed village for good reason—frost on the 17th-century weavers' cottages creates magazine-cover compositions. Castle Combe's compact valley setting traps cold air, producing reliable frost that highlights its honey-stone cottages and medieval market cross. Arrive at first light while frost remains intact—winter sunrise around 8:00am gives time to scout compositions in pre-dawn light. The contrast between warm honey-stone and cold blue frost works beautifully in morning light.

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72-hour requirements breakdown

What passed or failed, hour by hour
0matching hours in the next 95 hours
AND logic: all conditions required
Meets requirement
Misses requirement
Time
Europe/London
Time Window
Sunrise -45m to +90m
Frost Probability
≥ 60.0%
Wind Speed
≤ 1.5m/s
Wed, Apr 8
02:000%1.9m/s
03:000%1.3m/s
04:000%1.8m/s
05:000%1.5m/s
06:000%1.6m/s
07:000%1.7m/s
08:000%1.5m/s
09:000%2m/s
10:000%2.4m/s
11:000%2.2m/s
12:000%2.8m/s
13:000%2.8m/s
14:000%3.3m/s
15:000%3.5m/s
16:000%3m/s
17:000%2.6m/s
18:000%1.6m/s
19:000%1.9m/s
20:000%2.5m/s
21:000%2.5m/s
22:000%2.4m/s
23:000%2.2m/s
Thu, Apr 9
24:000%2m/s
01:000%1.8m/s
02:000%1.8m/s
03:000%2m/s
04:000%2.1m/s
05:000%2.1m/s
06:000%2.8m/s
07:000%3.3m/s
08:000%4.1m/s
09:000%4.9m/s
10:000%5.9m/s
11:000%6.6m/s
12:000%6.8m/s
13:000%7.8m/s
14:000%6.5m/s
15:000%7.1m/s
16:000%7m/s
17:000%6.5m/s
18:000%6m/s
19:000%6.8m/s
20:000%6.6m/s
21:000%3.9m/s
22:000%4m/s
23:000%3.7m/s
Fri, Apr 10
24:000%3.7m/s
01:000%3.3m/s
02:000%2.8m/s
03:000%2m/s
04:000%2.1m/s
05:002.9%1.4m/s
06:002.9%1.2m/s
07:002.9%1.1m/s
08:003.4%0.93m/s
09:003.4%1.3m/s
10:003.2%1.8m/s
11:003.4%3m/s
12:003.2%4.1m/s
13:003%4.2m/s
14:003%4.7m/s
15:002.8%5.6m/s
16:002.6%6m/s
17:003%4m/s
18:002.8%5.3m/s
19:002.6%6.3m/s
20:002.8%5.4m/s
21:001.3%6.6m/s
22:001%6.4m/s
23:001.3%7.8m/s
Sat, Apr 11
24:001.3%8.3m/s
01:001.3%8.2m/s
02:001.3%7.7m/s
03:001.3%7.3m/s
04:001.3%7.6m/s
05:000.6%6.6m/s
06:001%8.3m/s
07:001%6.4m/s
08:002.2%7.3m/s
09:003.3%8.2m/s
10:004.3%9m/s
11:004.5%8.8m/s
12:004.1%8.6m/s
13:004.1%8.4m/s
14:003.7%8.1m/s
15:002.8%7.8m/s
16:002%7.5m/s
17:002%7.7m/s
18:002%7.8m/s
19:002%7.9m/s
20:002%7.7m/s
21:002%7.6m/s
22:002%7.5m/s
23:001.7%7.7m/s
Sun, Apr 12
24:001.4%8m/s
How to read: colored cells show whether each predicate requirement is met; highlighted rows mean the full rule matched (an opportunity).

What does Frost Probability mean?

Inputs that drive the score

This derived score summarizes multiple raw weather signals. The table below shows the supporting inputs hour by hour, so you can see what's pushing the score up or down.

Time
Europe/London
Dew Point
°C
Surface Temperature
°C
Temperature
°C
Time Window
Total Cloud Coverage
%
Vapor Pressure Deficit
kPa
Thu, Apr 9 Sunrise 06:24 Sunset 19:53
02:00
9.4°C 12°C 10°C - 47% 0.08kPa
03:00
8.9°C 12°C 9.9°C - 58% 0.08kPa
04:00
8.4°C 11°C 9.5°C - 100% 0.08kPa
05:00
8.2°C 11°C 9.3°C - 100% 0.08kPa
06:00
8°C 11°C 9.2°C - 100% 0.09kPa
07:00
8.1°C 11°C 9.5°C - 100% 0.1kPa
08:00
8.3°C 11°C 11°C - 100% 0.18kPa
09:00
8.5°C 11°C 12°C - 100% 0.26kPa
10:00
7.1°C 11°C 12°C - 100% 0.41kPa
11:00
5.9°C 11°C 12°C - 100% 0.49kPa
12:00
8.6°C 11°C 13°C - 100% 0.39kPa
13:00
10°C 11°C 14°C - 100% 0.33kPa
14:00
9.1°C 11°C 12°C - 100% 0.21kPa
15:00
7.9°C 11°C 11°C - 100% 0.27kPa
16:00
5.1°C 11°C 9.3°C - 100% 0.29kPa
17:00
5.3°C 11°C 10°C - 100% 0.34kPa
18:00
4.9°C 11°C 9.4°C - 100% 0.31kPa
19:00
3.6°C 11°C 7.9°C - 98% 0.28kPa
20:00
2.5°C 11°C 6.4°C - 5% 0.23kPa
21:00
1.5°C 10°C 4.8°C - 7% 0.18kPa
22:00
0.9°C 9.9°C 3.9°C - 95% 0.15kPa
23:00
0.2°C 9.6°C 3.7°C - 90% 0.18kPa
Fri, Apr 10 Sunrise 06:24 Sunset 19:53
24:00
-0.1°C 9.3°C 3°C - 100% 0.15kPa
01:00
-0.3°C 9°C 3.1°C - 100% 0.16kPa
02:00
-0.5°C 8.7°C 3.2°C - 100% 0.18kPa
03:00
-0.7°C 8.4°C 2.7°C - 100% 0.16kPa
04:00
-0.7°C 8.2°C 3.3°C - 100% 0.19kPa
05:00
-0.7°C 7.9°C 3.1°C - 100% 0.18kPa
06:00
-0.8°C 7.7°C 3.3°C - 100% 0.19kPa
07:00
-0.4°C 7.5°C 3.4°C - 100% 0.18kPa
08:00
-0.2°C 7.4°C 4.2°C - 100% 0.23kPa
09:00
0°C 7.4°C 4.9°C - 100% 0.26kPa
10:00
0°C 7.4°C 6°C - 100% 0.32kPa
11:00
0.1°C 7.5°C 7.2°C - 100% 0.4kPa
12:00
0.3°C 7.6°C 7.9°C - 100% 0.44kPa
13:00
0.5°C 7.6°C 8.2°C - 100% 0.45kPa
14:00
0.8°C 7.8°C 8.6°C - 100% 0.47kPa
15:00
1.6°C 7.8°C 8.7°C - 100% 0.44kPa
16:00
2.8°C 7.8°C 6.6°C - 100% 0.23kPa
17:00
2.4°C 7.8°C 6.3°C - 100% 0.23kPa
18:00
2°C 7.7°C 6.9°C - 100% 0.28kPa
19:00
1.9°C 7.7°C 6.6°C - 100% 0.27kPa
20:00
1.9°C 7.6°C 5.7°C - 100% 0.21kPa
21:00
2.3°C 7.5°C 4.9°C - 100% 0.15kPa
22:00
2.8°C 7.3°C 4.1°C - 100% 0.07kPa
23:00
2.5°C 7.2°C 4.8°C - 100% 0.13kPa
Sat, Apr 11 Sunrise 06:21 Sunset 19:55
24:00
2.8°C 7.1°C 5.6°C - 100% 0.16kPa
01:00
3.2°C 7°C 5.9°C - 100% 0.16kPa
02:00
5.1°C 7°C 7.3°C - 100% 0.15kPa
03:00
6.6°C 7°C 8.6°C - 100% 0.14kPa
04:00
7.1°C 7.1°C 8.8°C - 100% 0.12kPa
05:00
7.5°C 7.1°C 8.5°C - 100% 0.07kPa
06:00
4.2°C 7.2°C 5.5°C - 100% 0.08kPa
07:00
3.2°C 7°C 4.5°C - 100% 0.07kPa
08:00
2.7°C 7.1°C 5.8°C - 68% 0.18kPa
09:00
1.9°C 7.2°C 7.2°C - 37% 0.31kPa
10:00
0.8°C 7.3°C 8.5°C - 5% 0.46kPa
11:00
1.1°C 7.3°C 7.9°C - 5% 0.4kPa
12:00
1.3°C 7.3°C 7.2°C - 5% 0.35kPa
13:00
1.5°C 7.4°C 6.6°C - 5% 0.29kPa
14:00
1.8°C 7.3°C 5.9°C - 16% 0.23kPa
15:00
2°C 7.1°C 5.2°C - 28% 0.18kPa
16:00
2.1°C 7°C 4.5°C - 39% 0.13kPa
17:00
2.1°C 6.9°C 4.6°C - 35% 0.14kPa
18:00
2.1°C 6.8°C 4.8°C - 32% 0.15kPa
19:00
2.1°C 6.7°C 4.9°C - 28% 0.16kPa
20:00
2.1°C 6.6°C 4.9°C - 32% 0.16kPa
21:00
2.1°C 6.5°C 4.8°C - 35% 0.15kPa
22:00
2.1°C 6.4°C 4.8°C - 38% 0.15kPa
23:00
2.2°C 6.3°C 5°C - 58% 0.16kPa
Sun, Apr 12 Sunrise 06:19 Sunset 19:57
24:00
2.3°C 6.3°C 5.2°C - 78% 0.16kPa
01:00
2.4°C 6.2°C 5.4°C - 97% 0.17kPa
How to read: these inputs help produce the derived score; they are not requirements by themselves.

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