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Rule Morning Frost

Painswick - Morning Frost - Cotswolds

Painswick, England, United Kingdom

Frost crystals on calm, cold mornings near sunrise

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Here’s what usually blocks matches

No Morning Frost opportunities in the next 14 days

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Rule requirements (key thresholds)
Time Window · Sunrise -45m to +90m Frost Probability · ≥ 60.0% Wind Speed · ≤ 1.5m/s

Tip: Scroll down to the 72-hour table to see exactly which condition fails hour by hour.

Most common blockers (next 72 hours)
Frost Probability 100% failing
Wind Speed 93% failing
Time Window 88% failing

Currently

Real-time conditions
Soil Temperature11.4°C
Dew Point8.4°C (moderate dew point)
Wind Speed3.0m/s (calm conditions)
Cloud Cover33%

Upcoming Opportunities

When all conditions match, PhotoWeather marks an opportunity window.

Times shown in Europe/London

No opportunities in the next 10 days

See the blocker timeline below to understand which conditions are preventing matches.

What this forecast looks for

Plain-language explanation from the rule

This forecast identifies when hard frost transforms the Cotswolds' honey-stone architecture and pastoral landscapes into crystalline winter wonderlands. We track overnight minimum temperatures, clear sky conditions, and ground frost risk to predict optimal frosted morning photography.

The Cotswolds' inland position and elevation (typically 200-330m) create reliable frost conditions during winter anticyclones. Clear skies and light winds allow radiative cooling to create heavy frost deposits on thatched roofs, dry stone walls, and riverside vegetation—all set against honey-colored Jurassic limestone that glows warmly against frozen foregrounds.

What makes Cotswolds frost photography distinctive:

  • Frosted thatch - Castle Combe's thatched cottages with heavy frost on golden stone—quintessentially English winter scenes
  • Arlington Row ice - Bibury's iconic weavers' cottages with frosted rooflines and icy River Coln creating mirror reflections
  • Frozen waterways - Bourton-on-the-Water's bridges with icy stream edges, Lower Slaughter's mill with frozen mill race
  • Churchyard frost - Painswick's famous 99 yew trees with frost-laden branches surrounding ancient gravestones

The most photogenic frost occurs during settled high pressure periods (December-February), particularly after clear, calm nights. Arlington Row at Bibury is England's most photographed village for good reason—frost on the 17th-century weavers' cottages creates magazine-cover compositions. Castle Combe's compact valley setting traps cold air, producing reliable frost that highlights its honey-stone cottages and medieval market cross. Arrive at first light while frost remains intact—winter sunrise around 8:00am gives time to scout compositions in pre-dawn light. The contrast between warm honey-stone and cold blue frost works beautifully in morning light.

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72-hour requirements breakdown

What passed or failed, hour by hour
0matching hours in the next 91 hours
AND logic: all conditions required
Meets requirement
Misses requirement
Time
Europe/London
Time Window
Sunrise -45m to +90m
Frost Probability
≥ 60.0%
Wind Speed
≤ 1.5m/s
Wed, Apr 8
06:000%0.88m/s
07:000%0.59m/s
08:000%0.68m/s
09:000%1.4m/s
10:000%1.4m/s
11:000%1.7m/s
12:000%2.3m/s
13:000%2.6m/s
14:000%3.5m/s
15:000%2.9m/s
16:000%2.7m/s
17:000%3m/s
18:000%2.8m/s
19:000%2.5m/s
20:000%3m/s
21:000%3m/s
22:000%2.7m/s
23:000%2.7m/s
Thu, Apr 9
24:000%2.9m/s
01:000%3m/s
02:000%3m/s
03:000%2.9m/s
04:000%3.1m/s
05:000%3.2m/s
06:000%3.5m/s
07:000%3.8m/s
08:000%4.1m/s
09:000%5.3m/s
10:000%6.3m/s
11:000%6.6m/s
12:000%7.7m/s
13:000%8.2m/s
14:000%6.8m/s
15:000%7.2m/s
16:000%5.4m/s
17:000%6m/s
18:000%6.1m/s
19:000%6.9m/s
20:000%6.5m/s
21:000%4.1m/s
22:000%3.4m/s
23:000%3.2m/s
Fri, Apr 10
24:000%2.9m/s
01:000%2.6m/s
02:000%2.6m/s
03:000%2m/s
04:000%1.8m/s
05:000%1.1m/s
06:003.6%0.21m/s
07:002.9%1m/s
08:003.4%1m/s
09:003.4%1m/s
10:003.6%2.1m/s
11:003.4%3.6m/s
12:003%4.6m/s
13:003%4.9m/s
14:002.8%5.8m/s
15:002.6%6.3m/s
16:003%3.9m/s
17:002.8%4.8m/s
18:002.6%6.5m/s
19:001.5%5.3m/s
20:001.2%5.4m/s
21:000.6%5.7m/s
22:001%6.6m/s
23:001.3%7.9m/s
Sat, Apr 11
24:001.3%7.8m/s
01:001.3%7.3m/s
02:001.3%7.8m/s
03:001.3%7.9m/s
04:001%6.9m/s
05:001%8.9m/s
06:001%6.3m/s
07:001.2%5.2m/s
08:002.2%6.4m/s
09:003%7.6m/s
10:003.9%8.9m/s
11:004.5%9m/s
12:004.1%9.2m/s
13:004.1%9.4m/s
14:002%9m/s
15:001.4%8.5m/s
16:001.3%8.1m/s
17:001.4%8.1m/s
18:001.7%8.2m/s
19:002%8.2m/s
20:002%8.3m/s
21:001.7%8.4m/s
22:001.7%8.5m/s
23:001.4%8.9m/s
Sun, Apr 12
24:002.1%9.2m/s
How to read: colored cells show whether each predicate requirement is met; highlighted rows mean the full rule matched (an opportunity).

What does Frost Probability mean?

Inputs that drive the score

This derived score summarizes multiple raw weather signals. The table below shows the supporting inputs hour by hour, so you can see what's pushing the score up or down.

Time
Europe/London
Dew Point
°C
Surface Temperature
°C
Temperature
°C
Time Window
Total Cloud Coverage
%
Vapor Pressure Deficit
kPa
Thu, Apr 9 Sunrise 06:26 Sunset 19:55
02:00
8.4°C 11°C 9°C - 33% 0.04kPa
03:00
8.3°C 11°C 8.8°C - 100% 0.04kPa
04:00
8.2°C 11°C 8.8°C - 100% 0.04kPa
05:00
8.1°C 11°C 8.6°C - 100% 0.04kPa
06:00
8.1°C 11°C 8.6°C - 100% 0.03kPa
07:00
8°C 11°C 8.8°C - 100% 0.06kPa
08:00
7.7°C 11°C 9.3°C - 100% 0.12kPa
09:00
7.4°C 11°C 10°C - 100% 0.22kPa
10:00
6.5°C 11°C 11°C - 100% 0.35kPa
11:00
7.9°C 11°C 12°C - 100% 0.32kPa
12:00
9.5°C 11°C 13°C - 100% 0.27kPa
13:00
9°C 11°C 12°C - 100% 0.21kPa
14:00
7.7°C 11°C 11°C - 100% 0.26kPa
15:00
7.7°C 11°C 11°C - 100% 0.29kPa
16:00
5.2°C 11°C 9.3°C - 100% 0.28kPa
17:00
6°C 11°C 11°C - 100% 0.34kPa
18:00
4.8°C 11°C 9.2°C - 100% 0.3kPa
19:00
3.8°C 10°C 8°C - 91% 0.27kPa
20:00
1.5°C 10°C 6.5°C - 87% 0.28kPa
21:00
0.5°C 10°C 4.9°C - 91% 0.23kPa
22:00
0.3°C 9.8°C 3.9°C - 92% 0.18kPa
23:00
0.3°C 9.5°C 3.3°C - 100% 0.15kPa
Fri, Apr 10 Sunrise 06:26 Sunset 19:55
24:00
0.1°C 9.2°C 3°C - 100% 0.14kPa
01:00
-0.2°C 8.9°C 3.4°C - 100% 0.18kPa
02:00
-0.4°C 8.7°C 3.9°C - 100% 0.21kPa
03:00
-0.7°C 8.5°C 3.9°C - 100% 0.22kPa
04:00
-0.7°C 8.3°C 4°C - 100% 0.23kPa
05:00
-0.8°C 8.1°C 3.8°C - 100% 0.23kPa
06:00
-0.9°C 7.9°C 3.8°C - 100% 0.23kPa
07:00
-0.2°C 7.7°C 3.7°C - 100% 0.2kPa
08:00
0°C 7.6°C 4.6°C - 100% 0.24kPa
09:00
0.1°C 7.5°C 5.4°C - 100% 0.28kPa
10:00
0.2°C 7.5°C 6.5°C - 99% 0.34kPa
11:00
0.5°C 7.6°C 7.3°C - 100% 0.39kPa
12:00
0.8°C 7.7°C 7.9°C - 100% 0.42kPa
13:00
1.1°C 7.8°C 8.4°C - 100% 0.44kPa
14:00
1.6°C 7.9°C 8.6°C - 100% 0.44kPa
15:00
2.3°C 7.9°C 7.4°C - 100% 0.31kPa
16:00
2.7°C 7.9°C 6.5°C - 100% 0.23kPa
17:00
3.1°C 7.8°C 7.3°C - 100% 0.26kPa
18:00
3.2°C 7.8°C 6.9°C - 100% 0.23kPa
19:00
3.7°C 7.8°C 5.9°C - 100% 0.13kPa
20:00
3.7°C 7.7°C 5.3°C - 100% 0.09kPa
21:00
3.6°C 7.5°C 4.5°C - 100% 0.05kPa
22:00
3.4°C 7.4°C 4.7°C - 100% 0.08kPa
23:00
3.4°C 7.3°C 5.6°C - 100% 0.13kPa
Sat, Apr 11 Sunrise 06:23 Sunset 19:57
24:00
3.9°C 7.2°C 6.4°C - 100% 0.15kPa
01:00
5°C 7.2°C 7.1°C - 82% 0.14kPa
02:00
6.4°C 7.2°C 8.3°C - 100% 0.13kPa
03:00
7°C 7.2°C 9°C - 100% 0.14kPa
04:00
7.5°C 7.3°C 8.9°C - 100% 0.1kPa
05:00
5.5°C 7.3°C 6.7°C - 100% 0.08kPa
06:00
3.6°C 7.2°C 4.8°C - 100% 0.07kPa
07:00
4.1°C 7.1°C 5.3°C - 100% 0.07kPa
08:00
3.2°C 7.3°C 6.5°C - 70% 0.2kPa
09:00
2.1°C 7.4°C 7.7°C - 40% 0.34kPa
10:00
0.5°C 7.5°C 8.9°C - 10% 0.51kPa
11:00
1.5°C 7.5°C 8.1°C - 9% 0.4kPa
12:00
2.2°C 7.5°C 7.2°C - 8% 0.3kPa
13:00
2.8°C 7.6°C 6.4°C - 7% 0.21kPa
14:00
2.8°C 7.4°C 5.8°C - 37% 0.18kPa
15:00
2.7°C 7.3°C 5.2°C - 67% 0.14kPa
16:00
2.6°C 7.2°C 4.6°C - 97% 0.11kPa
17:00
2.6°C 7.1°C 4.7°C - 75% 0.12kPa
18:00
2.5°C 7°C 4.8°C - 52% 0.13kPa
19:00
2.5°C 6.9°C 4.9°C - 30% 0.14kPa
20:00
2.4°C 6.8°C 4.9°C - 36% 0.14kPa
21:00
2.3°C 6.7°C 4.8°C - 43% 0.14kPa
22:00
2.2°C 6.6°C 4.8°C - 49% 0.15kPa
23:00
2.4°C 6.6°C 5.3°C - 66% 0.16kPa
Sun, Apr 12 Sunrise 06:21 Sunset 19:58
24:00
2.6°C 6.5°C 5.7°C - 83% 0.18kPa
01:00
2.8°C 6.5°C 6.2°C - 100% 0.2kPa
How to read: these inputs help produce the derived score; they are not requirements by themselves.

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