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Rule Morning Frost

Castle Combe - Morning Frost - Cotswolds

Castle Combe, England, United Kingdom

Frost crystals on calm, cold mornings near sunrise

No opportunities right now
Here’s what usually blocks matches

No Morning Frost opportunities in the next 14 days

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Rule requirements (key thresholds)
Time Window · Sunrise -45m to +90m Frost Probability · ≥ 60.0% Wind Speed · ≤ 1.5m/s

Tip: Scroll down to the 72-hour table to see exactly which condition fails hour by hour.

Most common blockers (next 72 hours)
Frost Probability 100% failing
Wind Speed 93% failing
Time Window 88% failing

Currently

Real-time conditions
Soil Temperature11.3°C
Dew Point8.7°C (moderate dew point)
Wind Speed2.9m/s (calm conditions)
Cloud Cover71%

Upcoming Opportunities

When all conditions match, PhotoWeather marks an opportunity window.

Times shown in Europe/London

No opportunities in the next 10 days

See the blocker timeline below to understand which conditions are preventing matches.

What this forecast looks for

Plain-language explanation from the rule

This forecast identifies when hard frost transforms the Cotswolds' honey-stone architecture and pastoral landscapes into crystalline winter wonderlands. We track overnight minimum temperatures, clear sky conditions, and ground frost risk to predict optimal frosted morning photography.

The Cotswolds' inland position and elevation (typically 200-330m) create reliable frost conditions during winter anticyclones. Clear skies and light winds allow radiative cooling to create heavy frost deposits on thatched roofs, dry stone walls, and riverside vegetation—all set against honey-colored Jurassic limestone that glows warmly against frozen foregrounds.

What makes Cotswolds frost photography distinctive:

  • Frosted thatch - Castle Combe's thatched cottages with heavy frost on golden stone—quintessentially English winter scenes
  • Arlington Row ice - Bibury's iconic weavers' cottages with frosted rooflines and icy River Coln creating mirror reflections
  • Frozen waterways - Bourton-on-the-Water's bridges with icy stream edges, Lower Slaughter's mill with frozen mill race
  • Churchyard frost - Painswick's famous 99 yew trees with frost-laden branches surrounding ancient gravestones

The most photogenic frost occurs during settled high pressure periods (December-February), particularly after clear, calm nights. Arlington Row at Bibury is England's most photographed village for good reason—frost on the 17th-century weavers' cottages creates magazine-cover compositions. Castle Combe's compact valley setting traps cold air, producing reliable frost that highlights its honey-stone cottages and medieval market cross. Arrive at first light while frost remains intact—winter sunrise around 8:00am gives time to scout compositions in pre-dawn light. The contrast between warm honey-stone and cold blue frost works beautifully in morning light.

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72-hour requirements breakdown

What passed or failed, hour by hour
0matching hours in the next 91 hours
AND logic: all conditions required
Meets requirement
Misses requirement
Time
Europe/London
Time Window
Sunrise -45m to +90m
Frost Probability
≥ 60.0%
Wind Speed
≤ 1.5m/s
Wed, Apr 8
06:000%0.83m/s
07:000%0.8m/s
08:000%0.77m/s
09:000%1.1m/s
10:000%1.6m/s
11:000%1.4m/s
12:000%1.9m/s
13:000%2.3m/s
14:000%4m/s
15:000%4m/s
16:000%3.1m/s
17:000%2.9m/s
18:000%2.8m/s
19:000%2.7m/s
20:000%2.4m/s
21:000%2.4m/s
22:000%2.5m/s
23:000%2.6m/s
Thu, Apr 9
24:000%2.5m/s
01:000%2.8m/s
02:000%2.9m/s
03:000%3.1m/s
04:000%2.8m/s
05:000%3.2m/s
06:000%3m/s
07:000%4.3m/s
08:000%4.2m/s
09:000%5.5m/s
10:000%6.6m/s
11:000%6.9m/s
12:000%7.4m/s
13:000%8.1m/s
14:000%7.2m/s
15:000%7.7m/s
16:000%7.7m/s
17:000%7.5m/s
18:000%6.9m/s
19:000%6.4m/s
20:000%6.2m/s
21:000%4.1m/s
22:000%3.9m/s
23:000%4.1m/s
Fri, Apr 10
24:000%4.3m/s
01:000%4.3m/s
02:000%3.5m/s
03:000%2.9m/s
04:000%2m/s
05:000%1.1m/s
06:000%1.3m/s
07:000%0.84m/s
08:003.6%0.68m/s
09:003.5%1.1m/s
10:003.6%2.4m/s
11:003.4%3.5m/s
12:003%4.5m/s
13:000%4.8m/s
14:000%5.5m/s
15:000%4.1m/s
16:000%4.2m/s
17:000%5.3m/s
18:001.3%5.8m/s
19:001.4%4.1m/s
20:001.2%4.8m/s
21:000.6%5.6m/s
22:001%6.7m/s
23:001%7.8m/s
Sat, Apr 11
24:001.3%8.4m/s
01:001.3%8.1m/s
02:001.3%7.7m/s
03:001.3%7.5m/s
04:001%6.8m/s
05:001%9m/s
06:001%6.7m/s
07:001%5.6m/s
08:002.2%6.4m/s
09:003.3%7.2m/s
10:004.3%8m/s
11:000%8.7m/s
12:000%9.4m/s
13:000%10m/s
14:002%9.3m/s
15:001.7%8.6m/s
16:001.4%7.8m/s
17:001.7%8m/s
18:002.4%8.2m/s
19:002.8%8.4m/s
20:003.6%8.5m/s
21:003.6%8.5m/s
22:003.6%8.6m/s
23:003.2%8.8m/s
Sun, Apr 12
24:001.7%9m/s
How to read: colored cells show whether each predicate requirement is met; highlighted rows mean the full rule matched (an opportunity).

What does Frost Probability mean?

Inputs that drive the score

This derived score summarizes multiple raw weather signals. The table below shows the supporting inputs hour by hour, so you can see what's pushing the score up or down.

Time
Europe/London
Dew Point
°C
Surface Temperature
°C
Temperature
°C
Time Window
Total Cloud Coverage
%
Vapor Pressure Deficit
kPa
Thu, Apr 9 Sunrise 06:26 Sunset 19:55
02:00
8.7°C 11°C 9.6°C - 71% 0.07kPa
03:00
8.5°C 11°C 9.3°C - 86% 0.06kPa
04:00
8.4°C 11°C 9.1°C - 100% 0.06kPa
05:00
8.5°C 11°C 9.1°C - 100% 0.05kPa
06:00
8.2°C 11°C 8.8°C - 100% 0.05kPa
07:00
7.8°C 11°C 9°C - 100% 0.09kPa
08:00
7.3°C 11°C 9.4°C - 100% 0.16kPa
09:00
7.5°C 11°C 10°C - 100% 0.23kPa
10:00
6.7°C 11°C 11°C - 100% 0.34kPa
11:00
7.4°C 11°C 11°C - 100% 0.32kPa
12:00
9.4°C 11°C 12°C - 100% 0.25kPa
13:00
8.9°C 11°C 11°C - 100% 0.19kPa
14:00
7.3°C 11°C 11°C - 100% 0.27kPa
15:00
7.1°C 11°C 11°C - 100% 0.28kPa
16:00
6.3°C 11°C 11°C - 100% 0.34kPa
17:00
5.5°C 11°C 10°C - 100% 0.34kPa
18:00
5.4°C 11°C 9.5°C - 100% 0.29kPa
19:00
4.5°C 10°C 8.3°C - 100% 0.25kPa
20:00
2.5°C 10°C 7°C - 100% 0.27kPa
21:00
1.4°C 10°C 5.5°C - 99% 0.23kPa
22:00
1.2°C 9.9°C 4.8°C - 100% 0.19kPa
23:00
0.7°C 9.6°C 4.5°C - 100% 0.2kPa
Fri, Apr 10 Sunrise 06:26 Sunset 19:55
24:00
0.2°C 9.4°C 4.5°C - 100% 0.22kPa
01:00
-0.2°C 9.2°C 4.8°C - 100% 0.26kPa
02:00
-0.5°C 9°C 4.8°C - 100% 0.27kPa
03:00
-0.6°C 8.8°C 4.6°C - 100% 0.26kPa
04:00
-0.7°C 8.6°C 4.3°C - 100% 0.25kPa
05:00
-0.8°C 8.4°C 4.1°C - 100% 0.24kPa
06:00
-0.8°C 8.2°C 4.2°C - 100% 0.25kPa
07:00
0°C 8.1°C 4.2°C - 100% 0.22kPa
08:00
0.2°C 7.9°C 5°C - 100% 0.25kPa
09:00
0.3°C 7.9°C 5.8°C - 70% 0.3kPa
10:00
0.6°C 7.9°C 6.8°C - 100% 0.35kPa
11:00
0.7°C 8°C 7.3°C - 100% 0.38kPa
12:00
1.1°C 8°C 8°C - 100% 0.41kPa
13:00
1.3°C 8.1°C 8.1°C - 100% 0.41kPa
14:00
1.7°C 8.1°C 8°C - 100% 0.38kPa
15:00
2.4°C 8.1°C 7.1°C - 100% 0.28kPa
16:00
2.6°C 8.1°C 7.8°C - 100% 0.32kPa
17:00
3°C 8.1°C 7.6°C - 100% 0.28kPa
18:00
3.8°C 8°C 6.2°C - 100% 0.14kPa
19:00
4.2°C 7.9°C 5.6°C - 100% 0.08kPa
20:00
4.1°C 7.8°C 5.2°C - 100% 0.06kPa
21:00
4°C 7.7°C 4.8°C - 100% 0.05kPa
22:00
3.8°C 7.5°C 4.9°C - 100% 0.06kPa
23:00
4.1°C 7.4°C 5.7°C - 100% 0.1kPa
Sat, Apr 11 Sunrise 06:24 Sunset 19:56
24:00
4.7°C 7.4°C 6.6°C - 100% 0.12kPa
01:00
5.9°C 7.4°C 7.8°C - 100% 0.13kPa
02:00
7°C 7.4°C 8.9°C - 100% 0.14kPa
03:00
7.2°C 7.4°C 8.7°C - 100% 0.11kPa
04:00
7.7°C 7.5°C 9°C - 100% 0.09kPa
05:00
5.3°C 7.5°C 6.6°C - 100% 0.08kPa
06:00
4°C 7.4°C 5.1°C - 100% 0.06kPa
07:00
4.1°C 7.3°C 5.2°C - 100% 0.06kPa
08:00
3.2°C 7.5°C 6.5°C - 69% 0.2kPa
09:00
1.9°C 7.8°C 7.8°C - 37% 0.36kPa
10:00
0.1°C 8°C 9.1°C - 6% 0.54kPa
11:00
1.3°C 8°C 8.2°C - 12% 0.41kPa
12:00
2.4°C 8°C 7.4°C - 17% 0.3kPa
13:00
3.2°C 8.1°C 6.5°C - 23% 0.2kPa
14:00
3°C 7.9°C 6°C - 36% 0.18kPa
15:00
2.9°C 7.8°C 5.5°C - 50% 0.15kPa
16:00
2.7°C 7.6°C 5°C - 64% 0.13kPa
17:00
2.6°C 7.5°C 5.2°C - 44% 0.14kPa
18:00
2.6°C 7.4°C 5.3°C - 25% 0.16kPa
19:00
2.6°C 7.3°C 5.5°C - 5% 0.17kPa
20:00
2.4°C 7.3°C 5.4°C - 5% 0.18kPa
21:00
2.1°C 7.2°C 5.4°C - 5% 0.18kPa
22:00
1.9°C 7.1°C 5.3°C - 5% 0.19kPa
23:00
2.2°C 7°C 5.4°C - 23% 0.18kPa
Sun, Apr 12 Sunrise 06:22 Sunset 19:58
24:00
2.6°C 7°C 5.5°C - 40% 0.17kPa
01:00
2.9°C 6.9°C 5.6°C - 58% 0.16kPa
How to read: these inputs help produce the derived score; they are not requirements by themselves.

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