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Rule Morning Frost

Broadway - Morning Frost - Cotswolds

Broadway, England, United Kingdom

Frost crystals on calm, cold mornings near sunrise

No opportunities right now
Here’s what usually blocks matches

No Morning Frost opportunities in the next 14 days

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Rule requirements (key thresholds)
Time Window · Sunrise -45m to +90m Frost Probability · ≥ 60.0% Wind Speed · ≤ 1.5m/s

Tip: Scroll down to the 72-hour table to see exactly which condition fails hour by hour.

Most common blockers (next 72 hours)
Frost Probability 100% failing
Wind Speed 100% failing
Time Window 88% failing

Currently

Real-time conditions
Soil Temperature9.0°C
Dew Point6.5°C (moderate dew point)
Wind Speed6.6m/s (moderate winds)
Cloud Cover100%

Upcoming Opportunities

When all conditions match, PhotoWeather marks an opportunity window.

Times shown in Europe/London

No opportunities in the next 10 days

See the blocker timeline below to understand which conditions are preventing matches.

What this forecast looks for

Plain-language explanation from the rule

This forecast identifies when hard frost transforms the Cotswolds' honey-stone architecture and pastoral landscapes into crystalline winter wonderlands. We track overnight minimum temperatures, clear sky conditions, and ground frost risk to predict optimal frosted morning photography.

The Cotswolds' inland position and elevation (typically 200-330m) create reliable frost conditions during winter anticyclones. Clear skies and light winds allow radiative cooling to create heavy frost deposits on thatched roofs, dry stone walls, and riverside vegetation—all set against honey-colored Jurassic limestone that glows warmly against frozen foregrounds.

What makes Cotswolds frost photography distinctive:

  • Frosted thatch - Castle Combe's thatched cottages with heavy frost on golden stone—quintessentially English winter scenes
  • Arlington Row ice - Bibury's iconic weavers' cottages with frosted rooflines and icy River Coln creating mirror reflections
  • Frozen waterways - Bourton-on-the-Water's bridges with icy stream edges, Lower Slaughter's mill with frozen mill race
  • Churchyard frost - Painswick's famous 99 yew trees with frost-laden branches surrounding ancient gravestones

The most photogenic frost occurs during settled high pressure periods (December-February), particularly after clear, calm nights. Arlington Row at Bibury is England's most photographed village for good reason—frost on the 17th-century weavers' cottages creates magazine-cover compositions. Castle Combe's compact valley setting traps cold air, producing reliable frost that highlights its honey-stone cottages and medieval market cross. Arrive at first light while frost remains intact—winter sunrise around 8:00am gives time to scout compositions in pre-dawn light. The contrast between warm honey-stone and cold blue frost works beautifully in morning light.

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72-hour requirements breakdown

What passed or failed, hour by hour
0matching hours in the next 91 hours
AND logic: all conditions required
Meets requirement
Misses requirement
Time
Europe/London
Time Window
Sunrise -45m to +90m
Frost Probability
≥ 60.0%
Wind Speed
≤ 1.5m/s
Wed, Apr 15
06:000%5.7m/s
07:000%5.9m/s
08:000%5.8m/s
09:000%6.2m/s
10:000%7.9m/s
11:000%8.2m/s
12:000%9.5m/s
13:000%9.9m/s
14:000%9.9m/s
15:000%10m/s
16:000%9.3m/s
17:000%8.2m/s
18:000%7.7m/s
19:000%7.2m/s
20:000%7.3m/s
21:000%6.4m/s
22:000%5.9m/s
23:000%5.5m/s
Thu, Apr 16
24:000%6.5m/s
01:000%6.8m/s
02:000%6.6m/s
03:000%6.6m/s
04:000%6.6m/s
05:000%6.4m/s
06:000%6.2m/s
07:000%6.3m/s
08:000%6m/s
09:000%6.6m/s
10:000%6.7m/s
11:000%6.6m/s
12:000%6.8m/s
13:000%6.9m/s
14:000%6.3m/s
15:000%5.5m/s
16:000%5m/s
17:000%4.7m/s
18:000%4.4m/s
19:000%4.9m/s
20:000%5m/s
21:000%4.1m/s
22:000%4.5m/s
23:000%4.3m/s
Fri, Apr 17
24:000%4.2m/s
01:000%4.2m/s
02:000%4.6m/s
03:000%4.7m/s
04:000%4.2m/s
05:000%4.2m/s
06:000%5m/s
07:000%6.2m/s
08:000%6.4m/s
09:000%7.1m/s
10:000%8.3m/s
11:000%8.3m/s
12:000%6.2m/s
13:000%7.3m/s
14:000%8.2m/s
15:000%6.7m/s
16:000%6.6m/s
17:000%6.4m/s
18:000%6m/s
19:000%5.2m/s
20:000%4.6m/s
21:000%4m/s
22:000%4.8m/s
23:000%4.8m/s
Sat, Apr 18
24:000%4.6m/s
01:000%4.4m/s
02:000%4.4m/s
03:000%4.4m/s
04:000%4.5m/s
05:000%4.3m/s
06:000%4.2m/s
07:000%4.1m/s
08:000%3.7m/s
09:000%3.3m/s
10:000%3m/s
11:000%2.8m/s
12:000%2.6m/s
13:000%2.4m/s
14:000%2.3m/s
15:000%2.3m/s
16:000%2.3m/s
17:000%2m/s
18:000%1.8m/s
19:000%1.6m/s
20:003.3%1.6m/s
21:003.3%1.5m/s
22:003.3%1.5m/s
23:003.3%1.6m/s
Sun, Apr 19
24:003.1%1.7m/s
How to read: colored cells show whether each predicate requirement is met; highlighted rows mean the full rule matched (an opportunity).

What does Frost Probability mean?

Inputs that drive the score

This derived score summarizes multiple raw weather signals. The table below shows the supporting inputs hour by hour, so you can see what's pushing the score up or down.

Time
Europe/London
Dew Point
°C
Surface Temperature
°C
Temperature
°C
Time Window
Total Cloud Coverage
%
Vapor Pressure Deficit
kPa
Thu, Apr 16 Sunrise 06:08 Sunset 20:06
03:00
6.5°C 9°C 7.3°C - 100% 0.06kPa
04:00
6.8°C 8.9°C 8.1°C - 100% 0.09kPa
05:00
6.7°C 8.9°C 8.6°C - 100% 0.13kPa
06:00
5.9°C 8.8°C 9.1°C - 100% 0.22kPa
07:00
6.2°C 8.8°C 9.2°C - 100% 0.22kPa
08:00
6.8°C 8.9°C 9.1°C - 62% 0.16kPa
09:00
7°C 8.9°C 10°C - 12% 0.23kPa
10:00
7.1°C 9°C 11°C - 42% 0.32kPa
11:00
7.5°C 9.1°C 12°C - 55% 0.39kPa
12:00
7.6°C 9.3°C 13°C - 100% 0.44kPa
13:00
7.7°C 9.5°C 13°C - 100% 0.42kPa
14:00
7.5°C 9.6°C 13°C - 100% 0.46kPa
15:00
7.8°C 9.7°C 13°C - 100% 0.43kPa
16:00
8.3°C 9.8°C 13°C - 100% 0.39kPa
17:00
8.9°C 10°C 13°C - 100% 0.32kPa
18:00
9.3°C 10°C 12°C - 100% 0.2kPa
19:00
9.1°C 10°C 11°C - 100% 0.17kPa
20:00
8.8°C 10°C 10°C - 100% 0.12kPa
21:00
8.1°C 9.9°C 9°C - 100% 0.07kPa
22:00
7.5°C 9.8°C 8.3°C - 100% 0.06kPa
23:00
7.1°C 9.7°C 7.7°C - 100% 0.04kPa
Fri, Apr 17 Sunrise 06:08 Sunset 20:06
24:00
7.2°C 9.6°C 7.7°C - 100% 0.04kPa
01:00
7.1°C 9.5°C 7.7°C - 100% 0.05kPa
02:00
7.3°C 9.4°C 8.1°C - 100% 0.06kPa
03:00
6.8°C 9.2°C 7.3°C - 100% 0.04kPa
04:00
6.6°C 9.1°C 7.1°C - 100% 0.03kPa
05:00
6.8°C 9°C 7.2°C - 98% 0.03kPa
06:00
6.8°C 8.9°C 7.2°C - 100% 0.03kPa
07:00
7.6°C 8.9°C 8.7°C - 100% 0.08kPa
08:00
8.4°C 8.8°C 9.6°C - 97% 0.09kPa
09:00
9.4°C 8.8°C 11°C - 82% 0.13kPa
10:00
9.6°C 9°C 12°C - 92% 0.21kPa
11:00
9.8°C 9.1°C 13°C - 100% 0.27kPa
12:00
9.4°C 9.2°C 11°C - 92% 0.15kPa
13:00
10°C 9.4°C 13°C - 87% 0.19kPa
14:00
11°C 9.6°C 14°C - 88% 0.26kPa
15:00
11°C 9.7°C 13°C - 96% 0.21kPa
16:00
10°C 9.8°C 14°C - 41% 0.33kPa
17:00
9.7°C 10°C 14°C - 5% 0.37kPa
18:00
9.1°C 10°C 13°C - 64% 0.33kPa
19:00
7.8°C 10°C 11°C - 64% 0.29kPa
20:00
6.7°C 10°C 9.9°C - 11% 0.23kPa
21:00
6.1°C 10°C 7.7°C - 5% 0.11kPa
22:00
5.7°C 9.8°C 7.2°C - 11% 0.1kPa
23:00
5.9°C 9.6°C 6.7°C - 7% 0.05kPa
Sat, Apr 18 Sunrise 06:06 Sunset 20:08
24:00
5.9°C 9.5°C 6.5°C - 30% 0.04kPa
01:00
5.7°C 9.3°C 6.4°C - 86% 0.04kPa
02:00
5.5°C 9.2°C 6.1°C - 5% 0.04kPa
03:00
5.1°C 9°C 5.7°C - 5% 0.04kPa
04:00
4.8°C 8.8°C 5.4°C - 2% 0.04kPa
05:00
4.5°C 8.6°C 5.1°C - 1% 0.04kPa
06:00
4.3°C 8.5°C 5°C - 0% 0.04kPa
07:00
4.6°C 8.3°C 5.3°C - 0% 0.04kPa
08:00
5.5°C 8.5°C 7.7°C - 25% 0.15kPa
09:00
6.1°C 8.8°C 10°C - 50% 0.3kPa
10:00
6.5°C 9.1°C 13°C - 75% 0.49kPa
11:00
7°C 9.1°C 12°C - 82% 0.37kPa
12:00
7.3°C 9.2°C 11°C - 88% 0.27kPa
13:00
7.5°C 9.3°C 9.9°C - 94% 0.18kPa
14:00
6.2°C 9.2°C 8.4°C - 64% 0.15kPa
15:00
5°C 9.1°C 7°C - 34% 0.13kPa
16:00
3.7°C 9°C 5.6°C - 4% 0.11kPa
17:00
3.3°C 8.7°C 5°C - 3% 0.1kPa
18:00
2.8°C 8.5°C 4.3°C - 1% 0.08kPa
19:00
2.4°C 8.2°C 3.7°C - 0% 0.07kPa
20:00
2.1°C 8°C 3.4°C - 0% 0.07kPa
21:00
1.7°C 7.7°C 3°C - 0% 0.07kPa
22:00
1.4°C 7.5°C 2.7°C - 0% 0.07kPa
23:00
1.4°C 7.2°C 2.8°C - 0% 0.07kPa
Sun, Apr 19 Sunrise 06:04 Sunset 20:10
24:00
1.5°C 7°C 2.9°C - 0% 0.07kPa
01:00
1.5°C 6.7°C 3°C - 0% 0.08kPa
02:00
2.3°C 6.8°C 5°C - 0% 0.15kPa
How to read: these inputs help produce the derived score; they are not requirements by themselves.

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