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Rule Morning Frost

Bourton-on-the-Water - Morning Frost - Cotswolds

Bourton on the Water, England, United Kingdom

Frost crystals on calm, cold mornings near sunrise

No opportunities right now
Here’s what usually blocks matches

No Morning Frost opportunities in the next 14 days

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Rule requirements (key thresholds)
Time Window · Sunrise -45m to +90m Frost Probability · ≥ 60.0% Wind Speed · ≤ 1.5m/s

Tip: Scroll down to the 72-hour table to see exactly which condition fails hour by hour.

Most common blockers (next 72 hours)
Frost Probability 100% failing
Wind Speed 100% failing
Time Window 88% failing

Currently

Real-time conditions
Soil Temperature7.9°C
Dew Point10.4°C (moderate dew point)
Wind Speed4.9m/s (calm conditions)
Cloud Cover100%

Upcoming Opportunities

When all conditions match, PhotoWeather marks an opportunity window.

Times shown in Europe/London

No opportunities in the next 10 days

See the blocker timeline below to understand which conditions are preventing matches.

What this forecast looks for

Plain-language explanation from the rule

This forecast identifies when hard frost transforms the Cotswolds' honey-stone architecture and pastoral landscapes into crystalline winter wonderlands. We track overnight minimum temperatures, clear sky conditions, and ground frost risk to predict optimal frosted morning photography.

The Cotswolds' inland position and elevation (typically 200-330m) create reliable frost conditions during winter anticyclones. Clear skies and light winds allow radiative cooling to create heavy frost deposits on thatched roofs, dry stone walls, and riverside vegetation—all set against honey-colored Jurassic limestone that glows warmly against frozen foregrounds.

What makes Cotswolds frost photography distinctive:

  • Frosted thatch - Castle Combe's thatched cottages with heavy frost on golden stone—quintessentially English winter scenes
  • Arlington Row ice - Bibury's iconic weavers' cottages with frosted rooflines and icy River Coln creating mirror reflections
  • Frozen waterways - Bourton-on-the-Water's bridges with icy stream edges, Lower Slaughter's mill with frozen mill race
  • Churchyard frost - Painswick's famous 99 yew trees with frost-laden branches surrounding ancient gravestones

The most photogenic frost occurs during settled high pressure periods (December-February), particularly after clear, calm nights. Arlington Row at Bibury is England's most photographed village for good reason—frost on the 17th-century weavers' cottages creates magazine-cover compositions. Castle Combe's compact valley setting traps cold air, producing reliable frost that highlights its honey-stone cottages and medieval market cross. Arrive at first light while frost remains intact—winter sunrise around 8:00am gives time to scout compositions in pre-dawn light. The contrast between warm honey-stone and cold blue frost works beautifully in morning light.

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72-hour requirements breakdown

What passed or failed, hour by hour
0matching hours in the next 95 hours
AND logic: all conditions required
Meets requirement
Misses requirement
Time
Europe/London
Time Window
Sunrise -45m to +90m
Frost Probability
≥ 60.0%
Wind Speed
≤ 1.5m/s
Tue, Apr 14
03:002.7%2.8m/s
04:002.5%2.9m/s
05:0030%2.9m/s
06:0032%2.7m/s
07:0024%2.6m/s
08:0019%2.8m/s
09:0017%4.7m/s
10:0014%6.1m/s
11:0014%5.6m/s
12:001.3%6.1m/s
13:001.3%6.2m/s
14:001.3%7.1m/s
15:001.3%7.2m/s
16:001%7.4m/s
17:001%6.9m/s
18:001%6.6m/s
19:000.6%6.3m/s
20:000.6%5.9m/s
21:000.8%5.1m/s
22:000.8%4.9m/s
23:000.8%4.6m/s
Wed, Apr 15
24:000.8%4.8m/s
01:000.8%4.6m/s
02:000.8%4.8m/s
03:000.8%4.9m/s
04:000.8%5.1m/s
05:000%5.3m/s
06:000%4.9m/s
07:000%5.1m/s
08:000%5.5m/s
09:000%6.1m/s
10:000%6.8m/s
11:000%6.6m/s
12:000%8.6m/s
13:000%9.7m/s
14:000%9.7m/s
15:000%9.8m/s
16:000%9.8m/s
17:000%8.5m/s
18:000%7.2m/s
19:000%6.7m/s
20:000%5.7m/s
21:000%4.1m/s
22:000%4.8m/s
23:000%6.1m/s
Thu, Apr 16
24:000%6.2m/s
01:000%6.1m/s
02:000%5.8m/s
03:000%6.2m/s
04:000%6m/s
05:000%6m/s
06:000%5.9m/s
07:000%5.6m/s
08:000%5.5m/s
09:000%6.2m/s
10:000%6.8m/s
11:000%7m/s
12:000%7m/s
13:000%6.7m/s
14:000%6.9m/s
15:000%6.8m/s
16:000%6.3m/s
17:000%4.7m/s
18:000%4m/s
19:000%3m/s
20:000%2.7m/s
21:000%2.8m/s
22:000%2.5m/s
23:000%2.4m/s
Fri, Apr 17
24:000%2.5m/s
01:000%2.5m/s
02:000%2.8m/s
03:000%2.8m/s
04:000%2.9m/s
05:000%3.1m/s
06:000%3.3m/s
07:000%3.4m/s
08:000%4.1m/s
09:000%4.9m/s
10:000%5.6m/s
11:000%5.4m/s
12:000%5.2m/s
13:000%5m/s
14:000%4.7m/s
15:000%4.5m/s
16:000%4.3m/s
17:000%4.5m/s
18:000%4.7m/s
19:000%4.9m/s
20:000%4.8m/s
21:000%4.7m/s
22:000%4.6m/s
23:000%4.2m/s
Sat, Apr 18
24:000%3.7m/s
01:000%3.3m/s
How to read: colored cells show whether each predicate requirement is met; highlighted rows mean the full rule matched (an opportunity).

What does Frost Probability mean?

Inputs that drive the score

This derived score summarizes multiple raw weather signals. The table below shows the supporting inputs hour by hour, so you can see what's pushing the score up or down.

Time
Europe/London
Dew Point
°C
Surface Temperature
°C
Temperature
°C
Time Window
Total Cloud Coverage
%
Vapor Pressure Deficit
kPa
Wed, Apr 15 Sunrise 06:11 Sunset 20:04
03:00
10°C 7.9°C 11°C - 100% 0.03kPa
04:00
11°C 8°C 11°C - 100% 0.03kPa
05:00
10°C 8.1°C 11°C - 100% 0.07kPa
06:00
10°C 8.1°C 11°C - 100% 0.05kPa
07:00
10°C 8.2°C 11°C - 100% 0.04kPa
08:00
11°C 8.4°C 11°C - 100% 0.05kPa
09:00
11°C 8.5°C 12°C - 100% 0.07kPa
10:00
11°C 8.6°C 12°C - 100% 0.1kPa
11:00
11°C 8.7°C 12°C - 100% 0.11kPa
12:00
12°C 9°C 14°C - 38% 0.23kPa
13:00
12°C 9.2°C 15°C - 34% 0.31kPa
14:00
12°C 9.5°C 15°C - 97% 0.28kPa
15:00
12°C 9.7°C 15°C - 95% 0.24kPa
16:00
11°C 9.7°C 13°C - 82% 0.16kPa
17:00
11°C 9.8°C 12°C - 1% 0.16kPa
18:00
9.3°C 10°C 12°C - 0% 0.21kPa
19:00
8.3°C 10°C 11°C - 0% 0.18kPa
20:00
7.3°C 9.9°C 9.1°C - 0% 0.14kPa
21:00
6.9°C 9.8°C 7.9°C - 0% 0.07kPa
22:00
6.8°C 9.6°C 7.5°C - 1% 0.05kPa
23:00
6.7°C 9.5°C 7.4°C - 18% 0.05kPa
Thu, Apr 16 Sunrise 06:11 Sunset 20:04
24:00
6.4°C 9.4°C 7.2°C - 100% 0.05kPa
01:00
6.3°C 9.2°C 7.2°C - 100% 0.06kPa
02:00
6.6°C 9.1°C 7.4°C - 100% 0.05kPa
03:00
7.1°C 9°C 8.2°C - 100% 0.08kPa
04:00
7°C 9°C 8.3°C - 100% 0.09kPa
05:00
6.8°C 8.9°C 8.1°C - 100% 0.09kPa
06:00
6.8°C 8.8°C 8.1°C - 100% 0.09kPa
07:00
6.9°C 8.8°C 8.3°C - 99% 0.11kPa
08:00
7.2°C 8.8°C 8.8°C - 57% 0.12kPa
09:00
7.3°C 8.8°C 10°C - 8% 0.2kPa
10:00
7.6°C 9°C 11°C - 72% 0.28kPa
11:00
7.5°C 9.1°C 12°C - 98% 0.36kPa
12:00
7.1°C 9.1°C 12°C - 86% 0.44kPa
13:00
7°C 9.4°C 13°C - 93% 0.48kPa
14:00
6.9°C 9.6°C 14°C - 100% 0.57kPa
15:00
7°C 9.7°C 14°C - 100% 0.56kPa
16:00
7°C 9.9°C 13°C - 100% 0.54kPa
17:00
8.1°C 10°C 13°C - 100% 0.45kPa
18:00
8.4°C 10°C 13°C - 100% 0.36kPa
19:00
8.4°C 10°C 11°C - 100% 0.25kPa
20:00
7.8°C 10°C 11°C - 100% 0.23kPa
21:00
7.3°C 10°C 10°C - 100% 0.23kPa
22:00
6.9°C 10°C 10°C - 100% 0.23kPa
23:00
6.8°C 10°C 9.8°C - 100% 0.22kPa
Fri, Apr 17 Sunrise 06:08 Sunset 20:05
24:00
6.8°C 9.9°C 9.2°C - 90% 0.17kPa
01:00
6.7°C 9.8°C 8.3°C - 63% 0.11kPa
02:00
6.2°C 9.7°C 7.2°C - 100% 0.07kPa
03:00
6°C 9.5°C 6.6°C - 100% 0.03kPa
04:00
5.8°C 9.3°C 6.3°C - 100% 0.03kPa
05:00
5.4°C 9.1°C 5.9°C - 100% 0.04kPa
06:00
5.5°C 9°C 6°C - 100% 0.04kPa
07:00
6.3°C 8.8°C 6.9°C - 100% 0.04kPa
08:00
7.4°C 9.3°C 8.7°C - 99% 0.09kPa
09:00
8.6°C 9.8°C 10°C - 98% 0.14kPa
10:00
9.7°C 10°C 12°C - 98% 0.21kPa
11:00
9.5°C 10°C 12°C - 98% 0.17kPa
12:00
9.3°C 10°C 11°C - 99% 0.14kPa
13:00
9.1°C 10°C 10°C - 100% 0.11kPa
14:00
8.3°C 10°C 9.7°C - 100% 0.1kPa
15:00
7.6°C 10°C 8.8°C - 100% 0.09kPa
16:00
6.8°C 10°C 8°C - 100% 0.08kPa
17:00
6.6°C 9.9°C 7.5°C - 71% 0.07kPa
18:00
6.3°C 9.8°C 7.1°C - 43% 0.05kPa
19:00
6°C 9.6°C 6.6°C - 14% 0.04kPa
20:00
5.7°C 9.4°C 6.3°C - 13% 0.04kPa
21:00
5.5°C 9.2°C 6°C - 12% 0.04kPa
22:00
5.2°C 9.1°C 5.7°C - 10% 0.03kPa
23:00
4.8°C 8.9°C 5.5°C - 19% 0.04kPa
Sat, Apr 18 Sunrise 06:06 Sunset 20:07
24:00
4.5°C 8.7°C 5.3°C - 28% 0.05kPa
01:00
4.1°C 8.5°C 5.1°C - 37% 0.06kPa
02:00
4.6°C 8.4°C 6.2°C - 58% 0.1kPa
How to read: these inputs help produce the derived score; they are not requirements by themselves.

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