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Rule Morning Frost

Bibury - Morning Frost - Cotswolds

Bibury, England, United Kingdom

Frost crystals on calm, cold mornings near sunrise

No opportunities right now
Here’s what usually blocks matches

No Morning Frost opportunities in the next 14 days

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Rule requirements (key thresholds)
Time Window · Sunrise -45m to +90m Frost Probability · ≥ 60.0% Wind Speed · ≤ 1.5m/s

Tip: Scroll down to the 72-hour table to see exactly which condition fails hour by hour.

Most common blockers (next 72 hours)
Frost Probability 100% failing
Wind Speed 94% failing
Time Window 88% failing

Currently

Real-time conditions
Soil Temperature11.7°C
Dew Point8.7°C (moderate dew point)
Wind Speed3.4m/s (calm conditions)
Cloud Cover42%

Upcoming Opportunities

When all conditions match, PhotoWeather marks an opportunity window.

Times shown in Europe/London

No opportunities in the next 10 days

See the blocker timeline below to understand which conditions are preventing matches.

What this forecast looks for

Plain-language explanation from the rule

This forecast identifies when hard frost transforms the Cotswolds' honey-stone architecture and pastoral landscapes into crystalline winter wonderlands. We track overnight minimum temperatures, clear sky conditions, and ground frost risk to predict optimal frosted morning photography.

The Cotswolds' inland position and elevation (typically 200-330m) create reliable frost conditions during winter anticyclones. Clear skies and light winds allow radiative cooling to create heavy frost deposits on thatched roofs, dry stone walls, and riverside vegetation—all set against honey-colored Jurassic limestone that glows warmly against frozen foregrounds.

What makes Cotswolds frost photography distinctive:

  • Frosted thatch - Castle Combe's thatched cottages with heavy frost on golden stone—quintessentially English winter scenes
  • Arlington Row ice - Bibury's iconic weavers' cottages with frosted rooflines and icy River Coln creating mirror reflections
  • Frozen waterways - Bourton-on-the-Water's bridges with icy stream edges, Lower Slaughter's mill with frozen mill race
  • Churchyard frost - Painswick's famous 99 yew trees with frost-laden branches surrounding ancient gravestones

The most photogenic frost occurs during settled high pressure periods (December-February), particularly after clear, calm nights. Arlington Row at Bibury is England's most photographed village for good reason—frost on the 17th-century weavers' cottages creates magazine-cover compositions. Castle Combe's compact valley setting traps cold air, producing reliable frost that highlights its honey-stone cottages and medieval market cross. Arrive at first light while frost remains intact—winter sunrise around 8:00am gives time to scout compositions in pre-dawn light. The contrast between warm honey-stone and cold blue frost works beautifully in morning light.

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72-hour requirements breakdown

What passed or failed, hour by hour
0matching hours in the next 92 hours
AND logic: all conditions required
Meets requirement
Misses requirement
Time
Europe/London
Time Window
Sunrise -45m to +90m
Frost Probability
≥ 60.0%
Wind Speed
≤ 1.5m/s
Wed, Apr 8
05:000%1.2m/s
06:000%1.2m/s
07:000%1.5m/s
08:000%1.6m/s
09:000%1.6m/s
10:000%2.3m/s
11:000%2.2m/s
12:000%2.6m/s
13:000%2.8m/s
14:000%2.8m/s
15:000%3.6m/s
16:000%3.1m/s
17:000%3m/s
18:000%2.6m/s
19:000%2.5m/s
20:000%2.7m/s
21:000%3m/s
22:000%3.1m/s
23:000%3.2m/s
Thu, Apr 9
24:000%3.2m/s
01:000%3.2m/s
02:000%3.4m/s
03:000%3.5m/s
04:000%3.2m/s
05:000%3.4m/s
06:000%3.5m/s
07:000%4m/s
08:000%4.4m/s
09:000%5.3m/s
10:000%6.4m/s
11:000%7.2m/s
12:000%7.2m/s
13:000%8.1m/s
14:000%7.8m/s
15:000%7.2m/s
16:000%7.3m/s
17:000%5.8m/s
18:000%6m/s
19:000%7m/s
20:000%7.1m/s
21:000%4.6m/s
22:000%5m/s
23:000%4.6m/s
Fri, Apr 10
24:000%4.3m/s
01:000%4.2m/s
02:000%3.5m/s
03:000%3m/s
04:000%2.4m/s
05:000%1.9m/s
06:003.4%1.2m/s
07:002.9%1m/s
08:003.4%1.1m/s
09:003.4%1.1m/s
10:003.8%1.7m/s
11:003.4%3.2m/s
12:003.2%4.1m/s
13:003%4.5m/s
14:003%5.3m/s
15:003%6.2m/s
16:003%3.9m/s
17:003%4.1m/s
18:002.6%5.7m/s
19:002.8%5.6m/s
20:001.5%5m/s
21:001.2%4.8m/s
22:001.2%5.4m/s
23:001.3%6.5m/s
Sat, Apr 11
24:001.3%7.2m/s
01:001.3%7.4m/s
02:001.3%7.8m/s
03:001%8.1m/s
04:001.3%7.5m/s
05:001%7m/s
06:001%8m/s
07:001%6m/s
08:002.2%7m/s
09:003%7.9m/s
10:003.9%8.9m/s
11:004.5%9m/s
12:004.1%9.2m/s
13:004.1%9.4m/s
14:002%9m/s
15:001.4%8.5m/s
16:001.3%8.1m/s
17:001.4%8.1m/s
18:001.7%8.2m/s
19:002%8.2m/s
20:002%8.3m/s
21:001.7%8.4m/s
22:001.7%8.5m/s
23:001.4%8.9m/s
Sun, Apr 12
24:002.1%9.2m/s
How to read: colored cells show whether each predicate requirement is met; highlighted rows mean the full rule matched (an opportunity).

What does Frost Probability mean?

Inputs that drive the score

This derived score summarizes multiple raw weather signals. The table below shows the supporting inputs hour by hour, so you can see what's pushing the score up or down.

Time
Europe/London
Dew Point
°C
Surface Temperature
°C
Temperature
°C
Time Window
Total Cloud Coverage
%
Vapor Pressure Deficit
kPa
Thu, Apr 9 Sunrise 06:24 Sunset 19:54
02:00
8.7°C 12°C 9.6°C - 42% 0.07kPa
03:00
8.5°C 12°C 9.3°C - 67% 0.06kPa
04:00
8.2°C 11°C 9°C - 100% 0.06kPa
05:00
8.2°C 11°C 8.9°C - 100% 0.06kPa
06:00
8.2°C 11°C 8.9°C - 100% 0.05kPa
07:00
8.3°C 11°C 9.1°C - 100% 0.06kPa
08:00
8.2°C 11°C 10°C - 100% 0.14kPa
09:00
8°C 11°C 11°C - 100% 0.24kPa
10:00
7.1°C 11°C 12°C - 100% 0.38kPa
11:00
6.2°C 11°C 12°C - 100% 0.45kPa
12:00
9.2°C 11°C 13°C - 100% 0.33kPa
13:00
9.8°C 11°C 13°C - 100% 0.28kPa
14:00
8.7°C 11°C 12°C - 100% 0.27kPa
15:00
7.5°C 11°C 11°C - 100% 0.3kPa
16:00
7.1°C 11°C 11°C - 100% 0.27kPa
17:00
5.1°C 11°C 9.3°C - 85% 0.29kPa
18:00
5.8°C 11°C 9.7°C - 100% 0.28kPa
19:00
4°C 11°C 8.3°C - 100% 0.29kPa
20:00
2.6°C 10°C 7°C - 86% 0.26kPa
21:00
1.4°C 10°C 5.5°C - 100% 0.22kPa
22:00
0.5°C 10°C 5°C - 98% 0.23kPa
23:00
0°C 9.7°C 4°C - 100% 0.2kPa
Fri, Apr 10 Sunrise 06:24 Sunset 19:54
24:00
0°C 9.4°C 3.7°C - 100% 0.18kPa
01:00
-0.1°C 9.1°C 3.9°C - 100% 0.2kPa
02:00
-0.3°C 8.9°C 4°C - 100% 0.21kPa
03:00
-0.4°C 8.6°C 3.8°C - 100% 0.21kPa
04:00
-0.4°C 8.4°C 3.9°C - 100% 0.21kPa
05:00
-0.5°C 8.2°C 3.9°C - 100% 0.22kPa
06:00
-0.7°C 8°C 3.8°C - 100% 0.22kPa
07:00
-0.2°C 7.8°C 3.7°C - 100% 0.19kPa
08:00
0.1°C 7.6°C 4.5°C - 100% 0.23kPa
09:00
0.2°C 7.6°C 5.4°C - 100% 0.28kPa
10:00
0.2°C 7.6°C 6.4°C - 100% 0.34kPa
11:00
0.4°C 7.7°C 7.3°C - 99% 0.39kPa
12:00
0.6°C 7.8°C 8.1°C - 100% 0.44kPa
13:00
0.7°C 7.8°C 8.4°C - 100% 0.46kPa
14:00
1.3°C 7.9°C 8.6°C - 100% 0.45kPa
15:00
2°C 8°C 8.3°C - 100% 0.39kPa
16:00
2.2°C 7.9°C 6.6°C - 100% 0.26kPa
17:00
2.3°C 7.9°C 7.3°C - 100% 0.3kPa
18:00
2.3°C 7.9°C 7.1°C - 100% 0.29kPa
19:00
2.6°C 7.8°C 6.6°C - 100% 0.23kPa
20:00
2.6°C 7.7°C 5.5°C - 100% 0.16kPa
21:00
3.2°C 7.6°C 4.6°C - 100% 0.08kPa
22:00
3°C 7.4°C 4.4°C - 100% 0.08kPa
23:00
2.9°C 7.3°C 5.3°C - 100% 0.14kPa
Sat, Apr 11 Sunrise 06:22 Sunset 19:55
24:00
3.3°C 7.2°C 6°C - 100% 0.16kPa
01:00
4.4°C 7.1°C 7.2°C - 100% 0.18kPa
02:00
6°C 7.1°C 8.3°C - 100% 0.16kPa
03:00
7.1°C 7.1°C 8.6°C - 100% 0.1kPa
04:00
7.2°C 7.2°C 8.7°C - 100% 0.11kPa
05:00
7.8°C 7.3°C 8.9°C - 100% 0.08kPa
06:00
3.4°C 7.3°C 5°C - 100% 0.09kPa
07:00
3.6°C 7.1°C 4.8°C - 100% 0.07kPa
08:00
3°C 7.3°C 6.2°C - 70% 0.19kPa
09:00
2°C 7.4°C 7.5°C - 40% 0.33kPa
10:00
0.5°C 7.5°C 8.9°C - 10% 0.51kPa
11:00
1.5°C 7.5°C 8.1°C - 9% 0.4kPa
12:00
2.2°C 7.5°C 7.2°C - 8% 0.3kPa
13:00
2.8°C 7.6°C 6.4°C - 7% 0.21kPa
14:00
2.8°C 7.4°C 5.8°C - 37% 0.18kPa
15:00
2.7°C 7.3°C 5.2°C - 67% 0.14kPa
16:00
2.6°C 7.2°C 4.6°C - 97% 0.11kPa
17:00
2.6°C 7.1°C 4.7°C - 75% 0.12kPa
18:00
2.5°C 7°C 4.8°C - 52% 0.13kPa
19:00
2.5°C 6.9°C 4.9°C - 30% 0.14kPa
20:00
2.4°C 6.8°C 4.9°C - 36% 0.14kPa
21:00
2.3°C 6.7°C 4.8°C - 43% 0.14kPa
22:00
2.2°C 6.6°C 4.8°C - 49% 0.15kPa
23:00
2.4°C 6.6°C 5.3°C - 66% 0.16kPa
Sun, Apr 12 Sunrise 06:20 Sunset 19:57
24:00
2.6°C 6.5°C 5.7°C - 83% 0.18kPa
01:00
2.8°C 6.5°C 6.2°C - 100% 0.2kPa
How to read: these inputs help produce the derived score; they are not requirements by themselves.

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