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Rule Morning Frost

Bibury - Morning Frost - Cotswolds

Bibury, England, United Kingdom

Frost crystals on calm, cold mornings near sunrise

No opportunities right now
Here’s what usually blocks matches

No Morning Frost opportunities in the next 14 days

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Rule requirements (key thresholds)
Time Window · Sunrise -45m to +90m Frost Probability · ≥ 60.0% Wind Speed · ≤ 1.5m/s

Tip: Scroll down to the 72-hour table to see exactly which condition fails hour by hour.

Most common blockers (next 72 hours)
Frost Probability 100% failing
Wind Speed 100% failing
Time Window 88% failing

Currently

Real-time conditions
Soil Temperature7.1°C
Dew Point9.7°C (moderate dew point)
Wind Speed5.7m/s (moderate winds)
Cloud Cover100%

Upcoming Opportunities

When all conditions match, PhotoWeather marks an opportunity window.

Times shown in Europe/London

No opportunities in the next 10 days

See the blocker timeline below to understand which conditions are preventing matches.

What this forecast looks for

Plain-language explanation from the rule

This forecast identifies when hard frost transforms the Cotswolds' honey-stone architecture and pastoral landscapes into crystalline winter wonderlands. We track overnight minimum temperatures, clear sky conditions, and ground frost risk to predict optimal frosted morning photography.

The Cotswolds' inland position and elevation (typically 200-330m) create reliable frost conditions during winter anticyclones. Clear skies and light winds allow radiative cooling to create heavy frost deposits on thatched roofs, dry stone walls, and riverside vegetation—all set against honey-colored Jurassic limestone that glows warmly against frozen foregrounds.

What makes Cotswolds frost photography distinctive:

  • Frosted thatch - Castle Combe's thatched cottages with heavy frost on golden stone—quintessentially English winter scenes
  • Arlington Row ice - Bibury's iconic weavers' cottages with frosted rooflines and icy River Coln creating mirror reflections
  • Frozen waterways - Bourton-on-the-Water's bridges with icy stream edges, Lower Slaughter's mill with frozen mill race
  • Churchyard frost - Painswick's famous 99 yew trees with frost-laden branches surrounding ancient gravestones

The most photogenic frost occurs during settled high pressure periods (December-February), particularly after clear, calm nights. Arlington Row at Bibury is England's most photographed village for good reason—frost on the 17th-century weavers' cottages creates magazine-cover compositions. Castle Combe's compact valley setting traps cold air, producing reliable frost that highlights its honey-stone cottages and medieval market cross. Arrive at first light while frost remains intact—winter sunrise around 8:00am gives time to scout compositions in pre-dawn light. The contrast between warm honey-stone and cold blue frost works beautifully in morning light.

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72-hour requirements breakdown

What passed or failed, hour by hour
0matching hours in the next 95 hours
AND logic: all conditions required
Meets requirement
Misses requirement
Time
Europe/London
Time Window
Sunrise -45m to +90m
Frost Probability
≥ 60.0%
Wind Speed
≤ 1.5m/s
Mon, Apr 13
20:003.4%1.9m/s
21:003.4%2m/s
22:003.1%2.3m/s
23:003.1%2.3m/s
Tue, Apr 14
24:003.1%2.3m/s
01:003.1%2.4m/s
02:003.1%2.5m/s
03:003.1%2.1m/s
04:0032%2.1m/s
05:0032%2.1m/s
06:0028%1.9m/s
07:0024%2.6m/s
08:0015%3.2m/s
09:0016%4.8m/s
10:0016%4.4m/s
11:0016%4.8m/s
12:0016%5m/s
13:0016%5.2m/s
14:001.3%6.5m/s
15:001%6.5m/s
16:001%6.6m/s
17:001%6.3m/s
18:001%5.9m/s
19:000.6%5.9m/s
20:000.6%5.7m/s
21:000.6%5.6m/s
22:000.8%5.5m/s
23:000.8%5.2m/s
Wed, Apr 15
24:000.8%5m/s
01:000.8%5.3m/s
02:000.8%5.5m/s
03:000.8%5.4m/s
04:000.8%5.1m/s
05:000%5.1m/s
06:000%5.1m/s
07:000%5.4m/s
08:000%5.8m/s
09:000%6.4m/s
10:000%6.6m/s
11:000%7.3m/s
12:000%8.7m/s
13:000%9.7m/s
14:000%10m/s
15:000%9.6m/s
16:000%9.4m/s
17:000%7.5m/s
18:000%6.7m/s
19:000%6.2m/s
20:000%5.3m/s
21:000%5.7m/s
22:000%6m/s
23:000%5.8m/s
Thu, Apr 16
24:000%5.9m/s
01:000%5.9m/s
02:000%5.8m/s
03:000%5.8m/s
04:000%5.4m/s
05:000%4.8m/s
06:000%4.6m/s
07:000%4.3m/s
08:000%4.7m/s
09:000%5.4m/s
10:000%5.7m/s
11:000%5.6m/s
12:000%5.7m/s
13:000%6.2m/s
14:000%6m/s
15:000%5.9m/s
16:000%5.4m/s
17:000%4m/s
18:000%3.2m/s
19:000%2.5m/s
20:000%2.3m/s
21:000%2.6m/s
22:000%2.9m/s
23:000%2.9m/s
Fri, Apr 17
24:000%3.1m/s
01:000%3.1m/s
02:000%4m/s
03:000%4.9m/s
04:000%5.8m/s
05:000%5.8m/s
06:000%5.7m/s
07:000%5.7m/s
08:000%5.8m/s
09:000%5.9m/s
10:000%6m/s
11:000%5.4m/s
12:000%4.9m/s
13:000%4.3m/s
14:000%4.5m/s
15:000%4.7m/s
16:000%4.9m/s
17:000%4.7m/s
18:000%4.6m/s
How to read: colored cells show whether each predicate requirement is met; highlighted rows mean the full rule matched (an opportunity).

What does Frost Probability mean?

Inputs that drive the score

This derived score summarizes multiple raw weather signals. The table below shows the supporting inputs hour by hour, so you can see what's pushing the score up or down.

Time
Europe/London
Dew Point
°C
Surface Temperature
°C
Temperature
°C
Time Window
Total Cloud Coverage
%
Vapor Pressure Deficit
kPa
Tue, Apr 14 Sunrise 06:13 Sunset 20:02
20:00
9.7°C 7.1°C 10°C - 100% 0.04kPa
21:00
9.9°C 7.2°C 10°C - 100% 0.03kPa
22:00
10°C 7.3°C 10°C - 100% 0.02kPa
23:00
10°C 7.4°C 10°C - 100% 0.02kPa
Wed, Apr 15 Sunrise 06:13 Sunset 20:02
24:00
10°C 7.6°C 11°C - 100% 0.02kPa
01:00
10°C 7.7°C 11°C - 100% 0.02kPa
02:00
11°C 7.8°C 11°C - 100% 0.02kPa
03:00
10°C 7.9°C 11°C - 100% 0.04kPa
04:00
11°C 8°C 11°C - 100% 0.03kPa
05:00
11°C 8.1°C 11°C - 100% 0.03kPa
06:00
11°C 8.2°C 11°C - 100% 0.03kPa
07:00
11°C 8.3°C 11°C - 100% 0.04kPa
08:00
11°C 8.4°C 11°C - 100% 0.06kPa
09:00
11°C 8.5°C 12°C - 100% 0.08kPa
10:00
11°C 8.6°C 12°C - 100% 0.09kPa
11:00
11°C 8.8°C 13°C - 100% 0.14kPa
12:00
12°C 9°C 14°C - 6% 0.25kPa
13:00
12°C 9.1°C 15°C - 16% 0.29kPa
14:00
12°C 9.4°C 15°C - 100% 0.3kPa
15:00
12°C 9.6°C 14°C - 93% 0.17kPa
16:00
12°C 9.8°C 14°C - 30% 0.18kPa
17:00
11°C 9.9°C 13°C - 10% 0.19kPa
18:00
10°C 10°C 13°C - 5% 0.23kPa
19:00
9.1°C 10°C 11°C - 46% 0.19kPa
20:00
8.3°C 10°C 10°C - 67% 0.13kPa
21:00
7.9°C 9.9°C 9.3°C - 11% 0.11kPa
22:00
6.9°C 9.8°C 8°C - 0% 0.08kPa
23:00
6.7°C 9.7°C 7.6°C - 6% 0.06kPa
Thu, Apr 16 Sunrise 06:11 Sunset 20:04
24:00
6.8°C 9.5°C 7.4°C - 50% 0.04kPa
01:00
7°C 9.4°C 7.6°C - 100% 0.04kPa
02:00
7.2°C 9.3°C 7.7°C - 100% 0.04kPa
03:00
7.4°C 9.2°C 8.1°C - 100% 0.05kPa
04:00
7.2°C 9.2°C 7.9°C - 100% 0.05kPa
05:00
6.9°C 9.1°C 7.8°C - 100% 0.06kPa
06:00
6.7°C 9°C 7.4°C - 100% 0.05kPa
07:00
6.6°C 8.9°C 7.2°C - 99% 0.04kPa
08:00
7.3°C 8.9°C 8.3°C - 69% 0.07kPa
09:00
7.4°C 8.9°C 9.5°C - 67% 0.15kPa
10:00
7.2°C 9°C 11°C - 76% 0.27kPa
11:00
7.1°C 9.1°C 12°C - 55% 0.36kPa
12:00
7°C 9.1°C 13°C - 48% 0.47kPa
13:00
6.9°C 9.4°C 14°C - 29% 0.57kPa
14:00
6.9°C 9.6°C 14°C - 26% 0.61kPa
15:00
6.8°C 9.7°C 14°C - 93% 0.61kPa
16:00
7.1°C 10°C 14°C - 100% 0.57kPa
17:00
8.4°C 10°C 13°C - 100% 0.44kPa
18:00
8.8°C 10°C 13°C - 100% 0.33kPa
19:00
8.8°C 10°C 12°C - 100% 0.23kPa
20:00
8.1°C 10°C 10°C - 100% 0.16kPa
21:00
8°C 10°C 9.3°C - 100% 0.09kPa
22:00
7.9°C 9.9°C 8.6°C - 100% 0.05kPa
23:00
7.5°C 9.8°C 8.1°C - 100% 0.04kPa
Fri, Apr 17 Sunrise 06:09 Sunset 20:05
24:00
7.3°C 9.7°C 8.1°C - 100% 0.05kPa
01:00
7.3°C 9.6°C 8.1°C - 100% 0.05kPa
02:00
7.7°C 9.6°C 9.3°C - 100% 0.12kPa
03:00
8.1°C 9.5°C 11°C - 100% 0.2kPa
04:00
8.3°C 9.5°C 12°C - 100% 0.28kPa
05:00
8.5°C 9.7°C 13°C - 100% 0.35kPa
06:00
8.7°C 9.9°C 13°C - 100% 0.42kPa
07:00
8.8°C 10°C 14°C - 100% 0.49kPa
08:00
9.3°C 10°C 14°C - 100% 0.46kPa
09:00
9.7°C 10°C 14°C - 99% 0.43kPa
10:00
10°C 11°C 14°C - 99% 0.4kPa
11:00
10°C 11°C 14°C - 99% 0.3kPa
12:00
10°C 11°C 13°C - 100% 0.22kPa
13:00
10°C 11°C 12°C - 100% 0.14kPa
14:00
9.7°C 11°C 11°C - 100% 0.11kPa
15:00
9.2°C 11°C 10°C - 100% 0.08kPa
16:00
8.8°C 11°C 9.5°C - 100% 0.06kPa
17:00
8.4°C 11°C 9.3°C - 100% 0.07kPa
18:00
8°C 10°C 9.2°C - 100% 0.08kPa
19:00
7.7°C 10°C 9°C - 100% 0.1kPa
How to read: these inputs help produce the derived score; they are not requirements by themselves.

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