Rule Fire Sky

Fire Sky Forecast for Malibu, California Coast

Malibu, California, United States

Malibu’s coves, tilted rock layers, sea stacks, and the Santa Monica Mountains provide varied foregrounds for winter surf and low western light.

Currently

Real-time conditions

Fiery Red Sky Potential

Low Cloud Cover14%

Mid Cloud Cover0%

High Cloud Cover0%

Aerosol Optical Depth0.1

Sun Elevation64.0° (Daylight)

Upcoming Opportunities

When all conditions match, PhotoWeather marks an opportunity window.

Times shown in America/Los_Angeles

Next opportunity

Excellent Fiery Red Sky at Sunrise

Malibu

Mon, Aug 31 · 06:12–07:00 · 1h window

Medium confidence

42%

🔥Fiery Red Sky Potential72.9%

Low Cloud Cover: 10%

Mid Cloud Cover: 0%

High Cloud Cover: 96%

Sun Elevation: -6.5° (Nautical twilight)

How this forecast is evaluated

See which weather signals PhotoWeather uses to identify Fire Sky conditions across California Coast. The requirements and hourly values below show how those signals apply at Malibu.

Explore Fire Sky conditions across California Coast →

Recorded match history

Completed PhotoWeather forecast matches recorded for this exact rule at Malibu during the last 365 days.

Last 30 days

recorded matching windows · 75% average confidence

Last 90 days

recorded matching windows · 71% average confidence

Last 365 days

recorded matching windows · 70% average confidence

Most frequent recorded start hour

06:00 local time, shared by 35 of 35 matches recorded in the last 365 days.

Most represented month

April, with 10 of 35 matches recorded in the last 365 days.

These figures use completed PhotoWeather MatchEvent records from the previous 365 days only. They describe recorded forecast matches, not observations, climatological probability, or a guarantee of future conditions.

Create your own Fire Sky alerts

Get notified when these conditions match at your own locations.

Get this template

85-hour requirements breakdown

When available, the detailed table below covers only the stated 85-hour horizon (typically 72–168 hours, depending on available hourly data). Opportunity records above span the next 14 days, so this table does not explain that entire 14-day period.

What passed or failed, hour by hour

0matching hours in the next 85 hours

AND logic: all conditions required

Meets requirement

Misses requirement

Time America/Los_Angeles	Golden Hour Any	Fiery Red Sky Potential ≥ 65.0%	Precipitation Chance ≤ 15.0%	Visibility ≥ 8000.0m
Fri, Aug 21
22:00	✕	7.6%	0%	24134m
23:00	✕	14%	0%	24134m
Sat, Aug 22
24:00	✕	40%	0%	24134m
01:00	✕	24%	0%	24135m
02:00	✕	36%	0%	24135m
03:00	✕	13%	0%	24134m
04:00	✕	6.3%	0%	24134m
05:00	✕	7%	0%	24134m
06:00	✓	29%	0%	24135m
07:00	✕	6.1%	0%	24134m
08:00	✕	8.1%	0%	24134m
09:00	✕	8.7%	0%	24135m
10:00	✕	5.1%	0%	24134m
11:00	✕	9.3%	0%	24134m
12:00	✕	4.7%	0%	9537m
13:00	✕	4.7%	0%	24135m
14:00	✕	4.7%	0%	24135m
15:00	✕	6.3%	0%	24134m
16:00	✕	4.7%	0%	24134m
17:00	✕	4.8%	0%	24134m
18:00	✕	4.7%	0%	24134m
19:00	✓	4.7%	0%	24134m
20:00	✕	32%	0%	24134m
21:00	✕	4.7%	0%	24134m
22:00	✕	4.7%	0%	24135m
23:00	✕	4.7%	0%	24135m
Sun, Aug 23
24:00	✕	4.7%	0%	24135m
01:00	✕	4.7%	0%	24134m
02:00	✕	4.7%	0%	24134m
03:00	✕	4.7%	0%	24134m
04:00	✕	4.7%	0%	24135m
05:00	✕	4.7%	0%	24135m
06:00	✓	29%	0%	24135m
07:00	✕	4.7%	0%	24134m
08:00	✕	4.8%	0%	24135m
09:00	✕	4.9%	0%	24135m
10:00	✕	5%	0%	24134m
11:00	✕	5%	0%	24135m
12:00	✕	7%	0%	24134m
13:00	✕	4.9%	0%	24134m
14:00	✕	6.3%	0%	24134m
15:00	✕	7.3%	0%	24134m
16:00	✕	11%	0%	24134m
17:00	✕	30%	0%	24134m
18:00	✓	30%	0%	24134m
19:00	✓	30%	0%	24134m
20:00	✕	71%	0%	24135m
21:00	✕	34%	0%	24134m
22:00	✕	19%	0%	24134m
23:00	✕	8%	0%	24134m
Mon, Aug 24
24:00	✕	6.8%	0%	24134m
01:00	✕	4.9%	0%	24135m
02:00	✕	5.3%	0%	24135m
03:00	✕	6.2%	0%	24134m
04:00	✕	5%	0%	24134m
05:00	✕	9.4%	0%	24134m
06:00	✓	28%	0%	24134m
07:00	✕	10%	0%	24135m
08:00	✕	32%	0%	24134m
09:00	✕	29%	0%	24135m
10:00	✕	32%	0%	24134m
11:00	✕	31%	0%	24135m
12:00	✕	33%	0%	24134m
13:00	✕	11%	0%	9008m
14:00	✕	13%	0%	24134m
15:00	✕	6.6%	0%	24135m
16:00	✕	9.3%	0%	24134m
17:00	✕	26%	0%	24134m
18:00	✓	0%	0%	24134m
19:00	✓	3%	0%	24134m
20:00	✕	48%	0%	24135m
21:00	✕	0%	0%	24135m
22:00	✕	0%	0%	24135m
23:00	✕	0%	0%	24135m
Tue, Aug 25
24:00	✕	0%	0%	24135m
01:00	✕	0%	0%	24135m
02:00	✕	0%	0%	24135m
03:00	✕	0%	0%	24135m
04:00	✕	0%	0%	24135m
05:00	✕	0%	0%	24135m
06:00	✓	30%	0%	24135m
07:00	✕	0%	0%	24135m
08:00	✕	0%	0%	24135m
09:00	✕	0%	0%	24135m
10:00	✕	0%	0%	24135m

How to read: colored cells show whether each predicate requirement is met; highlighted rows mean the full rule matched (an opportunity).

What does Fiery Red Sky Potential mean?

Inputs that drive the score

This derived score summarizes multiple raw weather signals. The table below shows the supporting inputs hour by hour, so you can see what's pushing the score up or down.

Time America/Los_Angeles	Aerosol Optical Depth (550nm)	Clear Sky Probability (Ensemble) %	Cloud Cover Uncertainty (Ensemble) %	Dust AOD (550nm)	Golden Hour	High Clouds %	Low Clouds %	Mid-Level Clouds %	RH @ 700 hPa %	Smoke AOD (550nm)	Solar Elevation °	Sunshine Duration seconds
Sat, Aug 22 Sunrise 06:22 Sunset 19:33
12:00	0.14	99%	4%	0.005	-	0%	14%	0%	41%	0.03	64°	3600seconds
13:00	0.14	100%	3%	0.005	-	0%	8%	0%	40%	0.03	68°	3600seconds
14:00	0.13	100%	1%	0.005	-	0%	1%	0%	39%	0.03	63°	3600seconds
15:00	0.12	100%	1%	0.005	-	0%	0%	0%	38%	0.03	54°	3600seconds
16:00	0.11	100%	2%	0.005	-	0%	0%	0%	36%	0.02	43°	3600seconds
17:00 ☾	0.1	100%	2%	0.005	-	0%	0%	0%	35%	0.02	31°	3600seconds
18:00 ☾	0.09	100%	1%	0.005	-	0%	0%	0%	33%	0.02	18°	3600seconds
19:00 ☾	0.09	100%	1%	0.005	-	0%	0%	0%	30%	0.02	6.1°	3600seconds
20:00 ☾	0.08	100%	0%	0.005	-	0%	0%	0%	28%	0.02	-6°	3600seconds
21:00 ☾	0.08	100%	0%	0.005	-	0%	0%	0%	26%	0.02	-18°	0seconds
22:00 ☾	0.08	100%	0%	0.005	-	0%	0%	0%	24%	0.02	-28°	0seconds
23:00 ☾	0.08	100%	0%	0.005	-	0%	0%	0%	22%	0.02	-37°	0seconds
Sun, Aug 23 Sunrise 06:22 Sunset 19:32
24:00 ☾	0.08	100%	0%	0.005	-	0%	0%	0%	19%	0.02	-43°	0seconds
01:00 ☾	0.09	100%	0%	0.005	-	0%	0%	0%	17%	0.02	-45°	0seconds
02:00 ☾	0.09	100%	0%	0.005	-	0%	0%	0%	15%	0.02	-42°	0seconds
03:00 ☾	0.09	100%	0%	0.005	-	0%	0%	0%	15%	0.03	-36°	0seconds
04:00 ☾	0.1	100%	0%	0.005	-	0%	0%	0%	15%	0.03	-27°	0seconds
05:00 ☾	0.1	100%	0%	0.004	-	0%	0%	0%	16%	0.03	-17°	0seconds
06:00 ☾	0.11	100%	0%	0.004	-	0%	0%	0%	16%	0.03	-5.3°	0seconds
07:00	0.11	100%	0%	0.004	-	0%	0%	0%	17%	0.03	6.9°	0seconds
08:00	0.12	100%	0%	0.004	-	0%	0%	0%	18%	0.03	19°	0seconds
09:00	0.12	100%	0%	0.004	-	0%	0%	0%	18%	0.03	32°	0seconds
10:00	0.12	100%	1%	0.004	-	0%	0%	0%	18%	0.03	44°	3600seconds
11:00	0.12	100%	1%	0.004	-	0%	0%	0%	19%	0.03	55°	3600seconds
12:00	0.11	99%	4%	0.004	-	5%	0%	3%	21%	0.03	64°	3600seconds
13:00	0.11	97%	7%	0.004	-	3%	0%	0%	23%	0.03	67°	3600seconds
14:00	0.11	96%	10%	0.004	-	0%	0%	0%	25%	0.03	63°	3600seconds
15:00	0.1	91%	13%	0.004	-	1%	0%	0%	26%	0.03	54°	3600seconds
16:00	0.1	86%	15%	0.004	-	44%	0%	0%	26%	0.02	43°	3600seconds
17:00 ☾	0.1	81%	18%	0.004	-	75%	0%	0%	26%	0.02	31°	3600seconds
18:00 ☾	-	70%	23%	-	-	100%	0%	0%	27%	-	18°	3600seconds
19:00 ☾	-	59%	27%	-	-	88%	0%	0%	27%	-	5.9°	3600seconds
20:00 ☾	-	48%	32%	-	-	27%	0%	9%	28%	-	-6.3°	3600seconds
21:00 ☾	-	51%	29%	-	-	6%	0%	33%	30%	-	-18°	0seconds
22:00 ☾	-	55%	25%	-	-	12%	0%	53%	32%	-	-28°	0seconds
23:00 ☾	-	58%	22%	-	-	0%	0%	5%	34%	-	-37°	0seconds
Mon, Aug 24 Sunrise 06:23 Sunset 19:30
24:00 ☾	-	67%	22%	-	-	0%	0%	2%	33%	-	-43°	0seconds
01:00 ☾	-	76%	21%	-	-	0%	0%	0%	32%	-	-45°	0seconds
02:00 ☾	-	85%	21%	-	-	4%	0%	0%	31%	-	-43°	0seconds
03:00 ☾	-	84%	21%	-	-	5%	0%	0%	32%	-	-36°	0seconds
04:00 ☾	-	83%	22%	-	-	0%	0%	0%	32%	-	-28°	0seconds
05:00 ☾	-	82%	22%	-	-	2%	0%	0%	32%	-	-17°	0seconds
06:00 ☾	-	82%	21%	-	-	6%	0%	0%	34%	-	-5.4°	0seconds
07:00	-	81%	21%	-	-	6%	0%	2%	36%	-	6.8°	0seconds
08:00	-	81%	20%	-	-	96%	0%	0%	38%	-	19°	0seconds
09:00	-	83%	19%	-	-	100%	0%	0%	38%	-	31°	0seconds
10:00	-	84%	19%	-	-	83%	0%	1%	39%	-	43°	3600seconds
11:00	-	86%	18%	-	-	100%	0%	0%	40%	-	55°	3600seconds
12:00	-	84%	19%	-	-	57%	0%	0%	39%	-	63°	3600seconds
13:00	-	82%	21%	-	-	5%	15%	0%	39%	-	67°	3600seconds
14:00	-	80%	22%	-	-	5%	0%	0%	38%	-	63°	3600seconds
15:00	-	81%	21%	-	-	3%	0%	5%	38%	-	54°	3600seconds
16:00	-	82%	20%	-	-	5%	0%	5%	39%	-	42°	3600seconds
17:00 ☾	-	83%	19%	-	-	10%	0%	4%	39%	-	30°	3600seconds
18:00 ☾	-	86%	17%	-	-	40%	0%	4%	39%	-	18°	2400seconds
19:00 ☾	-	89%	15%	-	-	70%	0%	3%	38%	-	5.6°	1200seconds
20:00 ☾	-	92%	13%	-	-	100%	0%	3%	38%	-	-6.6°	0seconds
21:00 ☾	-	90%	14%	-	-	84%	0%	2%	39%	-	-18°	0seconds
22:00 ☾	-	89%	14%	-	-	67%	0%	1%	41%	-	-29°	0seconds
23:00 ☾	-	87%	15%	-	-	51%	0%	0%	42%	-	-37°	0seconds
Tue, Aug 25 Sunrise 06:24 Sunset 19:29
24:00 ☾	-	78%	22%	-	-	54%	0%	0%	44%	-	-43°	0seconds
01:00 ☾	-	69%	28%	-	-	58%	0%	0%	46%	-	-45°	0seconds
02:00 ☾	-	60%	35%	-	-	61%	0%	0%	48%	-	-43°	0seconds
03:00 ☾	-	57%	34%	-	-	46%	0%	0%	48%	-	-37°	1200seconds
04:00 ☾	-	54%	33%	-	-	30%	0%	0%	48%	-	-28°	2400seconds
05:00 ☾	-	51%	32%	-	-	15%	0%	0%	49%	-	-17°	3600seconds
06:00 ☾	-	46%	34%	-	-	10%	0%	0%	50%	-	-5.6°	3600seconds
07:00	-	41%	35%	-	-	5%	0%	0%	52%	-	6.6°	3600seconds
08:00	-	36%	37%	-	-	0%	0%	0%	53%	-	19°	3600seconds
09:00	-	40%	34%	-	-	0%	0%	0%	53%	-	31°	3600seconds
10:00	-	43%	32%	-	-	0%	0%	0%	54%	-	43°	3600seconds
11:00	-	47%	29%	-	-	0%	0%	0%	54%	-	54°	3600seconds

How to read: these inputs help produce the derived score; they are not requirements by themselves.

How this forecast is made

Opportunities are threshold-based signals: PhotoWeather checks whether forecast conditions match the rules for a photography scenario. They are planning guidance, not guarantees. Forecasts can change as new model runs arrive, and confidence generally decreases farther into the forecast horizon, so recheck conditions before travelling.

The weather forecast foundation comes through Open-Meteo , which aggregates models from weather agencies. PhotoWeather applies condition-specific thresholds and derived calculations; not every condition uses every model or data input.

How opportunities work → Weather data sources →

Forecast generated

Aug 22, 2026, 6:56 PM UTC

Get Notified of Opportunities

Create your own custom alerts for this location and more.

Create Free Account