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Rule Storm Chaser

Melbourne - Storm Chaser - Australian Coast

Melbourne, Victoria, Australia

Dramatic storm conditions — from atmospheric builds to active thunderstorms

No opportunities right now
Here’s what usually blocks matches

No Storm Chaser opportunities in the next 14 days

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Rule requirements (key thresholds)
Storm Intensity · ≥ 55.0% Cloud Drama Score · ≥ 55.0% CAPE · ≥ 1200.0J/kg Lifted Index · ≤ -2.0°C

Tip: Scroll down to the 72-hour table to see exactly which condition fails hour by hour.

Most common blockers (next 72 hours)
Storm Intensity 100% failing
CAPE 94% failing
Cloud Drama Score 90% failing

Currently

Real-time conditions
Cloud Cover6%
Wind Gusts5.6m/s
Precipitation Chance0%
Air Pressure1002.4hPa
CAPE0
Lifted Index12.2°C
Wind Gusts5.6m/s
Precipitation0.0mm

Upcoming Opportunities

When all conditions match, PhotoWeather marks an opportunity window.

Times shown in Australia/Melbourne

No opportunities in the next 10 days

See the blocker timeline below to understand which conditions are preventing matches.

What this forecast looks for

Plain-language explanation from the rule

This forecast tracks the dramatic storm systems that bring lightning, massive swells, and atmospheric drama to Australia's eastern coastline. We monitor low-pressure systems, lightning activity, and wave heights to predict when Southern Ocean storms will create spectacular—but safe—photography conditions.

Australia's east coast faces the Tasman Sea and Southern Ocean, which generate powerful weather systems year-round. These storms bring towering seas that crash against coastal cliffs, creating explosions of spray. Lightning storms, particularly during summer, offer opportunities for long-exposure captures over harbors and beaches. Winter storms bring the largest swells and most dramatic cloud formations.

What makes Australian coastal storms exceptional:

  • Southern Ocean swells - Winter low-pressure systems generate massive groundswells that pound Victoria and southern NSW
  • Wollongong sea cliffs - Dramatic headlands where storm waves explode against cliffs in spectacular displays
  • Byron Bay lightning - Subtropical storms bring frequent lightning over the iconic lighthouse and beaches
  • Sydney storm drama - The harbour becomes wild during southerly busters and east coast lows

Best storm photography occurs during winter (June-August) when Southern Ocean low-pressure systems bring large swells and dramatic skies. Summer thunderstorms (November-February) offer lightning opportunities over coastal icons. East coast lows—intense low-pressure systems—create the most extreme conditions but pose significant safety risks. Our forecast helps identify approaching storms so you can position safely with proper conditions. Never stand on exposed rocks during large swells.

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72-hour requirements breakdown

What passed or failed, hour by hour
0matching hours in the next 95 hours
OR logic: one branch per group is enough
Meets requirement
Misses requirement
Time
Australia/Melbourne
Storm Intensity
≥ 55.0%
Cloud Drama Score
≥ 55.0%
CAPE
OR1·B1
≥ 1200.0J/kg
Lifted Index
OR1·B2
≤ -2.0°C
Visibility
≥ 2500.0m
Wind Gusts
≤ 22.0m/s
Sun, Feb 22
06:0012%53%0J/kg6.4°C24135m13m/s
07:000%64%0J/kg4.4°C24134m11m/s
08:000%53%2J/kg2.3°C24135m11m/s
09:000%62%0J/kg3.3°C24135m9.2m/s
10:000%47%10J/kg3°C24135m11m/s
11:0015%45%0J/kg4.6°C24135m11m/s
12:0011%43%0J/kg5.2°C24135m6.2m/s
13:0013%24%10J/kg1.9°C24107m8.1m/s
14:0029%25%17J/kg1.4°C14072m11m/s
15:0023%45%4J/kg1.4°C23839m11m/s
16:0025%45%18J/kg0.6°C22007m12m/s
17:0035%55%66J/kg-0.8°C12319m12m/s
18:0031%65%82J/kg-0.5°C7824m13m/s
19:0035%65%31J/kg-0.1°C4326m8m/s
20:0033%67%12J/kg1.5°C23204m5.5m/s
21:0022%61%1J/kg1.5°C15843m11m/s
22:0020%0%1J/kg2.8°C17983m9.1m/s
23:0040%5.6%1J/kg5°C15895m9.2m/s
Mon, Feb 23
24:000%9.2%1J/kg5.8°C11488m7.9m/s
01:000%14%1J/kg5.4°C24135m7.1m/s
02:0019%15%1J/kg6°C24135m6.1m/s
03:000%15%0J/kg4.8°C24135m4.7m/s
04:000%15%0J/kg6°C24135m4.7m/s
05:0018%14%0J/kg9.9°C24135m5.3m/s
06:000%22%0J/kg12°C24134m5.6m/s
07:000%15%0J/kg14°C24134m5.7m/s
08:0013%12%0J/kg14°C24135m5.2m/s
09:000%9.7%0J/kg15°C24135m4.5m/s
10:000%11%0J/kg15°C24135m3.9m/s
11:000%11%0J/kg15°C24135m3.8m/s
12:000%11%0J/kg14°C24135m3.8m/s
13:000%6%0J/kg14°C24135m3.8m/s
14:0013%4.8%0J/kg13°C24135m4.1m/s
15:000%3.8%0J/kg13°C24134m4m/s
16:000%2.7%0J/kg12°C24135m4m/s
17:0012%3.6%0J/kg12°C24134m4.2m/s
18:000%3.9%0J/kg11°C24135m4.2m/s
19:000%3.9%0J/kg10°C24134m4.5m/s
20:0011%4.2%0J/kg9°C24135m4.9m/s
21:000%3.6%0J/kg7.5°C24134m4.4m/s
22:000%0%0J/kg5°C24134m3.3m/s
23:000%0%0J/kg3.7°C24135m1.8m/s
Tue, Feb 24
24:000%0.2%0J/kg3.7°C24134m1m/s
01:000%2%0J/kg1.7°C24135m1m/s
02:009.8%15%153J/kg-0.4°C24135m0.91m/s
03:000%15%239J/kg-0.6°C24134m1.6m/s
04:000%10%266J/kg-0.3°C24134m1.5m/s
05:009.8%14%393J/kg-0.7°C24134m0.5m/s
06:000%27%616J/kg-1.9°C24135m1m/s
07:000%52%605J/kg-1.8°C24135m1.5m/s
08:0016%68%539J/kg-2°C24135m0.8m/s
09:000%100%462J/kg-1.6°C24135m1.8m/s
10:000%43%461J/kg-1.9°C24134m2.6m/s
11:0013%15%399J/kg-2.2°C24135m4.4m/s
12:000%15%332J/kg-1.7°C15793m4.8m/s
13:0021%43%555J/kg-2.4°C13073m6.1m/s
14:0031%35%521J/kg-2.2°C6785m5.7m/s
15:0015%74%438J/kg-1.6°C22902m6.5m/s
16:0019%71%352J/kg-1.6°C10166m4.8m/s
17:0036%57%261J/kg-1.3°C17733m6.7m/s
18:000%38%269J/kg-1.4°C24134m5.8m/s
19:000%67%226J/kg-1.3°C20829m7.3m/s
20:0037%68%122J/kg-1.1°C17382m5.9m/s
21:000%31%96J/kg-0.8°C24135m5.8m/s
22:000%11%283J/kg-1.4°C24134m6.1m/s
23:0018%11%245J/kg-1°C22828m5.8m/s
Wed, Feb 25
24:000%12%52J/kg-0.1°C24134m5m/s
01:000%12%39J/kg0.1°C24135m4.6m/s
02:000%14%20J/kg0.9°C24135m5.4m/s
03:000%15%58J/kg0.8°C24134m5.8m/s
04:000%15%59J/kg1°C24135m5.6m/s
05:000%15%55J/kg1.2°C24135m5.4m/s
06:000%15%13J/kg1.7°C24134m5.9m/s
07:000%47%0J/kg2.7°C24134m6.2m/s
08:000%19%0J/kg3.3°C24134m6.1m/s
09:000%19%0J/kg4°C24134m5.3m/s
10:000%16%0J/kg4.3°C24134m4.9m/s
11:000%33%0J/kg6.5°C24135m5.5m/s
12:000%11%0J/kg7.8°C24135m6.1m/s
13:000%2.5%0J/kg9°C24135m6.7m/s
14:000%1%0J/kg10°C24135m7.3m/s
15:000%1.8%0J/kg9.9°C24135m7.6m/s
16:000%1.8%0J/kg9.5°C24135m7.9m/s
17:000%2.2%0J/kg9.2°C24135m8.1m/s
18:000%5.2%0J/kg9.5°C24135m8.8m/s
19:000%5.2%0J/kg9.9°C24135m9.5m/s
20:000%5.6%0J/kg10°C24135m10m/s
21:000%18%0J/kg9.6°C24135m10m/s
22:000%0%0J/kg8.9°C24135m10m/s
23:000%0%0J/kg8.2°C24135m10m/s
Thu, Feb 26
24:000%0%0J/kg7.9°C24135m8.3m/s
01:000%0%0J/kg7.6°C24135m6.7m/s
02:000%0%0J/kg7.2°C24135m5.1m/s
03:000%0%0.33J/kg5.3°C24135m5.1m/s
04:000%0%0.67J/kg3.4°C24135m5m/s
How to read: colored cells show whether each predicate requirement is met; highlighted rows mean the full rule matched (an opportunity). For OR groups, only one branch is required, so some OR-branch predicates can be ✕ even in a matching hour.

What does Cloud Drama Score mean?

Inputs that drive the score

This derived score summarizes multiple raw weather signals. The table below shows the supporting inputs hour by hour, so you can see what's pushing the score up or down.

Time
Australia/Melbourne
Air Pressure
hPa
CAPE
J/kg
High Clouds
%
Lifted Index
°C
Low Clouds
%
Mid-Level Clouds
%
Precipitation Chance
%
Rainfall
mm
Relative Humidity
%
Showers
mm
Simulated Reflectivity
dBZ
Solar Elevation
°
Total Cloud Coverage
%
Total Precipitation
mm
Wind Shear 0-3 km
m/s
Wind Shear 0-6 km
m/s
Wind Speed
m/s
Mon, Feb 23 Sunrise 06:58 Sunset 20:09
06:00
1002hPa 0J/kg 0% 12°C 6% 0% 0% 0mm 78% 0mm -20dBZ -12° 6% 0mm - - 2.1m/s
07:00
1003hPa 0J/kg 0% 14°C 2% 0% 0% 0mm 78% 0mm -20dBZ 0.12° 2% 0mm - - 2m/s
08:00
1004hPa 0J/kg 0% 14°C 0% 0% 0% 0mm 74% 0mm -20dBZ 11° 0% 0mm 15m/s 18m/s 2.2m/s
09:00
1005hPa 0J/kg 0% 15°C 0% 0% 0% 0mm 63% 0mm -20dBZ 23° 0% 0mm - - 2.8m/s
10:00
1005hPa 0J/kg 0% 15°C 0% 0% 0% 0mm 54% 0mm -20dBZ 35° 0% 0mm - - 3.1m/s
11:00
1006hPa 0J/kg 0% 15°C 0% 0% 0% 0mm 48% 0mm -20dBZ 46° 0% 0mm 12m/s 18m/s 3.4m/s
12:00
1005hPa 0J/kg 0% 14°C 0% 0% 0% 0mm 42% 0mm -20dBZ 55° 0% 0mm - - 3.5m/s
13:00
1004hPa 0J/kg 0% 14°C 0% 0% 0% 0mm 38% 0mm -20dBZ 61° 0% 0mm - - 3.9m/s
14:00
1004hPa 0J/kg 0% 13°C 0% 0% 0% 0mm 35% 0mm -20dBZ 61° 0% 0mm 11m/s 18m/s 4.3m/s
15:00
1004hPa 0J/kg 0% 13°C 0% 0% 0% 0mm 34% 0mm -20dBZ 56° 0% 0mm - - 4.7m/s
16:00
1003hPa 0J/kg 0% 12°C 0% 0% 0% 0mm 35% 0mm -20dBZ 47° 0% 0mm - - 4.8m/s
17:00
1003hPa 0J/kg 0% 12°C 0% 0% 0% 0mm 37% 0mm -20dBZ 36° 0% 0mm 8.6m/s 16m/s 4.7m/s
18:00
1004hPa 0J/kg 0% 11°C 0% 0% 1% 0mm 40% 0mm -20dBZ 24° 0% 0mm - - 4.4m/s
19:00
1004hPa 0J/kg 0% 10°C 0% 0% 2% 0mm 45% 0mm -20dBZ 13° 0% 0mm - - 4.1m/s
20:00
1004hPa 0J/kg 0% 9°C 0% 0% 3% 0mm 52% 0mm -20dBZ 1.2° 0% 0mm 7.5m/s 15m/s 3.6m/s
21:00
1005hPa 0J/kg 0% 7.5°C 0% 0% 19% 0mm 59% 0mm -20dBZ -11° 0% 0mm - - 2.9m/s
22:00
1005hPa 0J/kg 0% 5°C 0% 0% 34% 0mm 63% 0mm -20dBZ -21° 0% 0mm - - 2.1m/s
23:00
1005hPa 0J/kg 0% 3.7°C 0% 0% 50% 0mm 65% 0mm -20dBZ -30° 0% 0mm 6.7m/s 14m/s 1.2m/s
Tue, Feb 24 Sunrise 06:59 Sunset 20:08
24:00
1005hPa 0J/kg 0% 3.7°C 0% 0% 45% 0mm 67% 0mm -20dBZ -38° 0% 0mm - - 0.55m/s
01:00
1004hPa 0J/kg 0% 1.7°C 0% 0% 40% 0mm 69% 0mm -20dBZ -42° 0% 0mm - - 0.3m/s
02:00
1003hPa 153J/kg 0% -0.4°C 18% 0% 35% 0mm 70% 0mm -20dBZ -42° 18% 0mm 12m/s 13m/s 0.59m/s
03:00
1003hPa 239J/kg 0% -0.6°C 75% 0% 34% 0mm 70% 0mm -13dBZ -38° 75% 0mm - - 1.1m/s
04:00
1003hPa 266J/kg 0% -0.3°C 5% 0% 32% 0mm 69% 0.01mm -5.3dBZ -31° 5% 0mm - - 1.1m/s
05:00
1002hPa 393J/kg 0% -0.7°C 10% 2% 31% 0mm 70% 0.01mm 2dBZ -22° 10% 0mm 12m/s 12m/s 0.46m/s
06:00
1002hPa 616J/kg 0% -1.9°C 8% 0% 48% 0mm 69% 0mm -5.3dBZ -12° 8% 0mm - - 0.8m/s
07:00
1003hPa 605J/kg 0% -1.8°C 79% 0% 66% 0mm 69% 0mm -13dBZ -0.11° 79% 0mm - - 1.1m/s
08:00
1003hPa 539J/kg 0% -2°C 52% 0% 83% 0mm 65% 0.08mm -20dBZ 11° 52% 0.06mm 11m/s 12m/s 0.46m/s
09:00
1003hPa 462J/kg 2% -1.6°C 45% 25% 88% 0mm 61% 0mm -20dBZ 23° 45% 0.19mm - - 0.57m/s
10:00
1003hPa 461J/kg 3% -1.9°C 16% 7% 93% 0mm 55% 0.04mm -20dBZ 35° 16% 0.25mm - - 0.95m/s
11:00
1003hPa 399J/kg 5% -2.2°C 0% 0% 98% 0.01mm 49% 0.09mm -20dBZ 45° 5% 0.38mm 11m/s 11m/s 0.47m/s
12:00
1002hPa 332J/kg 0% -1.7°C 0% 1% 95% 0mm 48% 0.33mm -4.5dBZ 55° 1% 0.38mm - - 1.5m/s
13:00
1002hPa 555J/kg 0% -2.4°C 24% 13% 93% 0mm 52% 0.56mm 11dBZ 61° 24% 0.81mm - - 2.9m/s
14:00
1002hPa 521J/kg 0% -2.2°C 74% 6% 90% 0mm 64% 1.4mm 26dBZ 61° 74% 1.8mm 8.4m/s 9.7m/s 3.8m/s
15:00
1001hPa 438J/kg 0% -1.6°C 57% 29% 92% 0mm 70% 0.15mm 26dBZ 56° 57% 2.8mm - - 3.9m/s
16:00
1001hPa 352J/kg 0% -1.6°C 71% 44% 94% 0.25mm 75% 0.93mm 26dBZ 47° 71% 4mm - - 2.7m/s
17:00
1001hPa 261J/kg 0% -1.3°C 88% 54% 96% 0.46mm 84% 0.07mm 25dBZ 36° 89% 5.7mm 18m/s 15m/s 3.6m/s
18:00
1003hPa 269J/kg 0% -1.4°C 90% 0% 85% 0mm 83% 0mm 24dBZ 24° 90% 0.13mm - - 3.5m/s
19:00
1003hPa 226J/kg 0% -1.3°C 42% 7% 75% 0.03mm 82% 0.44mm 23dBZ 12° 42% 0.19mm - - 4m/s
20:00
1004hPa 122J/kg 0% -1.1°C 90% 18% 64% 0.04mm 85% 2mm 21dBZ 0.97° 90% 1.3mm 16m/s 19m/s 3.2m/s
21:00
1006hPa 96J/kg 0% -0.8°C 100% 0% 66% 0.1mm 84% 0.03mm 18dBZ -11° 100% 1.5mm - - 3.4m/s
22:00
1006hPa 283J/kg 0% -1.4°C 94% 0% 67% 0mm 86% 0.03mm 14dBZ -21° 94% 1.6mm - - 3.5m/s
23:00
1006hPa 245J/kg 0% -1°C 100% 0% 68% 0mm 85% 0.09mm 10dBZ -31° 100% 1.6mm 19m/s 23m/s 3.3m/s
Wed, Feb 25 Sunrise 07:00 Sunset 20:06
24:00
1007hPa 52J/kg 0% -0.1°C 100% 0% 50% 0mm 85% 0.04mm 1.1dBZ -38° 100% 0.13mm - - 2.5m/s
01:00
1007hPa 39J/kg 0% 0.1°C 100% 0% 31% 0mm 85% 0.02mm -8dBZ -42° 100% 0.19mm - - 2.3m/s
02:00
1007hPa 20J/kg 0% 0.9°C 100% 0% 13% 0mm 86% 0.05mm -17dBZ -42° 100% 0.19mm 18m/s 23m/s 2.9m/s
03:00
1007hPa 58J/kg 0% 0.8°C 70% 0% 16% 0mm 87% 0.07mm -18dBZ -39° 70% 0.25mm - - 3.3m/s
04:00
1007hPa 59J/kg 0% 1°C 75% 0% 19% 0mm 85% 0.01mm -19dBZ -32° 75% 0.31mm - - 3m/s
05:00
1007hPa 55J/kg 0% 1.2°C 96% 0% 22% 0mm 81% 0mm -20dBZ -23° 96% 0.31mm 17m/s 20m/s 3.1m/s
06:00
1008hPa 13J/kg 0% 1.7°C 70% 0% 15% 0mm 75% 0mm -20dBZ -12° 70% 0mm - - 3.3m/s
07:00
1009hPa 0J/kg 0% 2.7°C 18% 0% 7% 0mm 73% 0mm -20dBZ -0.43° 18% 0mm - - 3m/s
08:00
1010hPa 0J/kg 0% 3.3°C 1% 0% 0% 0mm 71% 0mm -20dBZ 11° 1% 0mm 17m/s 20m/s 3.1m/s
09:00
1010hPa 0J/kg 0% 4°C 8% 0% 0% 0mm 65% 0mm -12dBZ 23° 8% 0mm - - 3.8m/s
10:00
1010hPa 0J/kg 0% 4.3°C 8% 0% 0% 0mm 58% 0mm -3.9dBZ 34° 8% 0mm - - 3.7m/s
11:00
1010hPa 0J/kg 0% 6.5°C 20% 0% 0% 0mm 53% 0mm 4.1dBZ 45° 20% 0mm 15m/s 20m/s 4.5m/s
12:00
1013hPa 0J/kg 0% 7.8°C 13% 0% 0% 0mm 58% 0mm -3.9dBZ 54° 13% 0mm - - 5.3m/s
13:00
1016hPa 0J/kg 0% 9°C 7% 0% 0% 0mm 62% 0mm -12dBZ 60° 7% 0mm - - 6.2m/s
14:00
1019hPa 0J/kg 0% 10°C 0% 0% 0% 0mm 67% 0mm -20dBZ 61° 0% 0mm 14m/s 23m/s 7m/s
15:00
1019hPa 0J/kg 0% 9.9°C 0% 0% 0% 0mm 69% 0mm -20dBZ 55° 0% 0mm - - 6.7m/s
16:00
1019hPa 0J/kg 0% 9.5°C 0% 0% 0% 0mm 70% 0mm -20dBZ 46° 0% 0mm - - 6.5m/s
17:00
1019hPa 0J/kg 0% 9.2°C 0% 0% 0% 0mm 72% 0mm -20dBZ 35° 0% 0mm 9.4m/s 22m/s 6.2m/s
18:00
1019hPa 0J/kg 0% 9.5°C 0% 0% 0% 0mm 74% 0mm -20dBZ 24° 0% 0mm - - 6.2m/s
19:00
1018hPa 0J/kg 0% 9.9°C 0% 0% 0% 0mm 76% 0mm -20dBZ 12° 0% 0mm - - 6.2m/s
20:00
1018hPa 0J/kg 0% 10°C 0% 0% 0% 0mm 78% 0mm -20dBZ 0.74° 0% 0mm 9m/s 19m/s 6.2m/s
21:00
1017hPa 0J/kg 0% 9.6°C 15% 0% 0% 0.01mm 80% 0mm -20dBZ -11° 15% 0mm - - 6.2m/s
22:00
1017hPa 0J/kg 0% 8.9°C 30% 0% 0% 0.02mm 82% 0mm -20dBZ -22° 30% 0mm - - 6.3m/s
23:00
1017hPa 0J/kg 0% 8.2°C 45% 0% 0% 0.03mm 84% 0mm -20dBZ -31° 45% 0mm 13m/s 23m/s 6.4m/s
Thu, Feb 26 Sunrise 07:01 Sunset 20:05
24:00
1017hPa 0J/kg 0% 7.9°C 31% 0% 0% 0.02mm 84% 0mm -20dBZ -38° 31% 0.02mm - - 5.4m/s
01:00
1018hPa 0J/kg 0% 7.6°C 17% 0% 0% 0.01mm 85% 0mm -20dBZ -43° 17% 0.04mm - - 4.4m/s
02:00
1018hPa 0J/kg 0% 7.2°C 2% 0% 0% 0mm 85% 0mm -20dBZ -43° 2% 0.06mm 15m/s 24m/s 3.4m/s
03:00
1018hPa 0.33J/kg 0% 5.3°C 32% 0% 0% 0mm 79% 0mm -16dBZ -39° 32% 0.06mm - - 3.6m/s
04:00
1018hPa 0.67J/kg 0% 3.4°C 62% 0% 0% 0mm 73% 0mm -12dBZ -32° 62% 0.06mm - - 3.8m/s
05:00
1018hPa 1J/kg 0% 1.5°C 92% 0% 0% 0mm 67% 0mm -7.4dBZ -23° 92% 0.06mm 15m/s 23m/s 4m/s
How to read: these inputs help produce the derived score; they are not requirements by themselves.

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