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Rule Storm Chaser

Melbourne - Storm Chaser - Australian Coast

Melbourne, Victoria, Australia

Dramatic storm conditions — from atmospheric builds to active thunderstorms

No opportunities right now
Here’s what usually blocks matches

No Storm Chaser opportunities in the next 14 days

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Rule requirements (key thresholds)
Storm Intensity · ≥ 55.0% Cloud Drama Score · ≥ 55.0% CAPE · ≥ 1200.0J/kg Lifted Index · ≤ -2.0°C

Tip: Scroll down to the 72-hour table to see exactly which condition fails hour by hour.

Most common blockers (next 72 hours)
Storm Intensity 100% failing
CAPE 100% failing
Cloud Drama Score 83% failing

Currently

Real-time conditions
Cloud Cover0%
Wind Gusts16.3m/s
Precipitation Chance86%
Air Pressure1001.0hPa
CAPE125
Lifted Index-0.8°C
Wind Gusts16.3m/s
Precipitation0.1mm

Upcoming Opportunities

When all conditions match, PhotoWeather marks an opportunity window.

Times shown in Australia/Melbourne

No opportunities in the next 10 days

See the blocker timeline below to understand which conditions are preventing matches.

What this forecast looks for

Plain-language explanation from the rule

This forecast tracks the dramatic storm systems that bring lightning, massive swells, and atmospheric drama to Australia's eastern coastline. We monitor low-pressure systems, lightning activity, and wave heights to predict when Southern Ocean storms will create spectacular—but safe—photography conditions.

Australia's east coast faces the Tasman Sea and Southern Ocean, which generate powerful weather systems year-round. These storms bring towering seas that crash against coastal cliffs, creating explosions of spray. Lightning storms, particularly during summer, offer opportunities for long-exposure captures over harbors and beaches. Winter storms bring the largest swells and most dramatic cloud formations.

What makes Australian coastal storms exceptional:

  • Southern Ocean swells - Winter low-pressure systems generate massive groundswells that pound Victoria and southern NSW
  • Wollongong sea cliffs - Dramatic headlands where storm waves explode against cliffs in spectacular displays
  • Byron Bay lightning - Subtropical storms bring frequent lightning over the iconic lighthouse and beaches
  • Sydney storm drama - The harbour becomes wild during southerly busters and east coast lows

Best storm photography occurs during winter (June-August) when Southern Ocean low-pressure systems bring large swells and dramatic skies. Summer thunderstorms (November-February) offer lightning opportunities over coastal icons. East coast lows—intense low-pressure systems—create the most extreme conditions but pose significant safety risks. Our forecast helps identify approaching storms so you can position safely with proper conditions. Never stand on exposed rocks during large swells.

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72-hour requirements breakdown

What passed or failed, hour by hour
0matching hours in the next 95 hours
OR logic: one branch per group is enough
Meets requirement
Misses requirement
Time
Australia/Melbourne
Storm Intensity
≥ 55.0%
Cloud Drama Score
≥ 55.0%
CAPE
OR1·B1
≥ 1200.0J/kg
Lifted Index
OR1·B2
≤ -2.0°C
Visibility
≥ 2500.0m
Wind Gusts
≤ 22.0m/s
Wed, Apr 8
11:000%25%0J/kg12°C24135m1m/s
12:000%50%0J/kg11°C24134m1.6m/s
13:000%56%0J/kg11°C24135m2.6m/s
14:000%48%0J/kg9.5°C24134m3.4m/s
15:000%42%0J/kg8.8°C24134m2.7m/s
16:0015%51%0J/kg9.1°C24135m2.7m/s
17:000%48%0J/kg8.5°C24135m2.7m/s
18:000%61%0J/kg11°C24134m3m/s
19:000%26%0J/kg10°C24135m2.8m/s
20:000%15%0J/kg7.8°C24134m8.9m/s
21:000%13%0J/kg5.1°C24135m9.5m/s
22:000%14%0J/kg3.3°C24134m10m/s
23:000%11%0J/kg2.7°C24135m11m/s
Thu, Apr 9
24:0011%14%0J/kg2.4°C24134m12m/s
01:0024%15%24J/kg1.7°C24135m13m/s
02:0011%13%19J/kg1.7°C24135m15m/s
03:0013%13%25J/kg1.7°C24134m15m/s
04:0024%15%39J/kg1.1°C24135m15m/s
05:0013%14%74J/kg0.4°C24135m16m/s
06:0013%96%66J/kg0.7°C24134m17m/s
07:0029%71%65J/kg0.6°C24134m17m/s
08:0013%46%153J/kg-0.7°C24135m18m/s
09:0015%45%79J/kg-0.4°C24135m18m/s
10:0030%29%138J/kg-1°C24135m17m/s
11:0017%28%125J/kg-0.8°C13519m16m/s
12:0014%53%133J/kg-1°C23427m16m/s
13:0028%74%167J/kg-1.3°C24135m14m/s
14:0014%58%196J/kg-1.4°C24135m17m/s
15:0015%75%122J/kg-1.2°C24134m18m/s
16:0035%87%74J/kg-0.3°C24134m18m/s
17:0017%70%99J/kg0°C24134m17m/s
18:0017%76%108J/kg-1°C24135m18m/s
19:0041%0%79J/kg-0.5°C12365m17m/s
20:0025%0%81J/kg-0.5°C15066m16m/s
21:0027%0%87J/kg-0.8°C24135m20m/s
22:0038%1.2%89J/kg-1.2°C24135m17m/s
23:0013%7.2%75J/kg-0.6°C24135m16m/s
Fri, Apr 10
24:0015%15%59J/kg-0.2°C24134m17m/s
01:0034%15%0J/kg2.3°C24135m18m/s
02:0015%13%0J/kg3.7°C24134m16m/s
03:0015%15%4J/kg4°C24134m16m/s
04:0033%7.5%14J/kg4.2°C24135m15m/s
05:000%2.2%8J/kg5.8°C20192m9m/s
06:000%32%25J/kg7°C24134m8.5m/s
07:0019%33%15J/kg8.8°C24134m7.6m/s
08:000%54%24J/kg9.9°C24135m7.3m/s
09:000%39%36J/kg10°C24134m10m/s
10:0020%37%25J/kg11°C24135m12m/s
11:000%27%23J/kg11°C24134m11m/s
12:000%25%38J/kg10°C24134m11m/s
13:0018%29%20J/kg11°C24135m12m/s
14:000%33%29J/kg11°C24134m12m/s
15:000%33%42J/kg10°C24134m10m/s
16:0016%36%44J/kg11°C24135m11m/s
17:000%35%39J/kg11°C24134m12m/s
18:0011%31%41J/kg10°C24134m13m/s
19:0018%6.3%25J/kg10°C24135m12m/s
20:000%6.7%44J/kg9.9°C15163m10m/s
21:0019%2.1%51J/kg10°C13291m10m/s
22:0030%3.5%52J/kg11°C15933m10m/s
23:000%9.6%33J/kg13°C24134m10m/s
Sat, Apr 11
24:000%15%8J/kg13°C24134m8.5m/s
01:0018%13%6J/kg10°C24134m8.6m/s
02:000%3.2%0J/kg9.2°C24134m8.8m/s
03:000%5.5%3J/kg7.5°C24135m8.5m/s
04:0015%2.6%0J/kg6.6°C24135m8.8m/s
05:000%4.6%0J/kg7.4°C24135m8.8m/s
06:000%17%0J/kg7°C24134m8.9m/s
07:0014%29%0J/kg7°C24135m9.2m/s
08:000%32%0J/kg6.1°C24134m9.7m/s
09:000%55%0J/kg6°C24135m10m/s
10:0014%47%7J/kg5.2°C24134m9.9m/s
11:000%21%12J/kg5.1°C24134m9.7m/s
12:000%28%12J/kg6.2°C24134m10m/s
13:0013%33%49J/kg6.6°C24135m10m/s
14:000%59%56J/kg9.2°C17334m11m/s
15:000%81%53J/kg9.1°C19388m12m/s
16:0019%72%37J/kg9.1°C23268m12m/s
17:0014%86%42J/kg9.4°C22412m13m/s
18:000%97%47J/kg9.7°C21556m15m/s
19:0019%0%52J/kg10°C20699m16m/s
20:000%0%55J/kg9.9°C18269m16m/s
21:000%0%58J/kg9.7°C15838m16m/s
22:0031%0%61J/kg9.4°C13407m15m/s
23:0016%0%63J/kg9.3°C14127m15m/s
Sun, Apr 12
24:000%0%66J/kg9.2°C14846m15m/s
01:0018%0%68J/kg9.1°C15565m14m/s
02:0015%0%60J/kg8.8°C17304m14m/s
03:0015%0%53J/kg8.5°C19043m14m/s
04:0026%0%45J/kg8.2°C20782m14m/s
05:0014%0%45J/kg8.3°C21899m14m/s
06:0014%26%45J/kg8.4°C23017m13m/s
07:0016%31%45J/kg8.6°C24135m13m/s
08:000%29%45J/kg9.1°C24135m13m/s
09:000%29%45J/kg9.6°C24135m13m/s
How to read: colored cells show whether each predicate requirement is met; highlighted rows mean the full rule matched (an opportunity). For OR groups, only one branch is required, so some OR-branch predicates can be ✕ even in a matching hour.

What does Cloud Drama Score mean?

Inputs that drive the score

This derived score summarizes multiple raw weather signals. The table below shows the supporting inputs hour by hour, so you can see what's pushing the score up or down.

Time
Australia/Melbourne
Air Pressure
hPa
CAPE
J/kg
High Clouds
%
Lifted Index
°C
Low Clouds
%
Mid-Level Clouds
%
Precipitation Chance
%
Rainfall
mm
Relative Humidity
%
Showers
mm
Simulated Reflectivity
dBZ
Solar Elevation
°
Total Cloud Coverage
%
Total Precipitation
mm
Wind Shear 0-3 km
m/s
Wind Shear 0-6 km
m/s
Wind Speed
m/s
Thu, Apr 9 Sunrise 06:42 Sunset 18:01
11:00
1001hPa 125J/kg 0% -0.8°C 0% 0% 86% 0mm 53% 0.48mm -20dBZ 41° 0% 0.13mm - - 8.5m/s
12:00
1001hPa 133J/kg 0% -1°C 0% 70% 93% 0mm 54% 0.19mm -20dBZ 44° 70% 0.56mm - - 7.4m/s
13:00
1000hPa 167J/kg 0% -1.3°C 27% 13% 99% 0mm 48% 0mm -20dBZ 44° 28% 0.63mm 18m/s 16m/s 7.4m/s
14:00
999hPa 196J/kg 100% -1.4°C 16% 100% 100% 0mm 45% 0mm -3.7dBZ 39° 100% 0.63mm - - 7.6m/s
15:00
998hPa 122J/kg 11% -1.2°C 33% 100% 100% 0.01mm 50% 0mm 13dBZ 32° 100% 0.69mm - - 7.9m/s
16:00
998hPa 74J/kg 56% -0.3°C 48% 100% 100% 0mm 56% 0.04mm 29dBZ 22° 100% 0.75mm 17m/s 23m/s 6.8m/s
17:00
998hPa 99J/kg 100% 0°C 100% 100% 98% 0.05mm 66% 0mm 27dBZ 11° 100% 0.25mm - - 6.5m/s
18:00
996hPa 108J/kg 100% -1°C 10% 100% 96% 0mm 66% 0.04mm 25dBZ 0.14° 100% 0.31mm - - 6.8m/s
19:00
997hPa 79J/kg 100% -0.5°C 40% 100% 93% 0.01mm 68% 0.54mm 23dBZ -12° 100% 0.75mm 17m/s 17m/s 6.7m/s
20:00
996hPa 81J/kg 100% -0.5°C 96% 100% 95% 0mm 65% 0.47mm 23dBZ -24° 100% 1.1mm - - 6.9m/s
21:00
997hPa 87J/kg 100% -0.8°C 83% 47% 97% 0mm 59% 0.06mm 22dBZ -35° 100% 1.3mm - - 7.8m/s
22:00
996hPa 89J/kg 100% -1.2°C 49% 100% 99% 0mm 57% 0.01mm 22dBZ -46° 100% 1.4mm 15m/s 24m/s 6.7m/s
23:00
996hPa 75J/kg 100% -0.6°C 52% 100% 97% 0mm 56% 0.02mm 8.1dBZ -55° 100% 0mm - - 6.4m/s
Fri, Apr 10 Sunrise 06:42 Sunset 18:01
24:00
996hPa 59J/kg 100% -0.2°C 3% 0% 94% 0mm 61% 0mm -6dBZ -60° 100% 0.13mm - - 6m/s
01:00
996hPa 0J/kg 0% 2.3°C 0% 0% 92% 0mm 56% 0mm -20dBZ -59° 0% 0.13mm 16m/s 26m/s 6m/s
02:00
996hPa 0J/kg 0% 3.7°C 0% 0% 93% 0mm 53% 0mm -9.3dBZ -53° 0% 0.13mm - - 5.7m/s
03:00
996hPa 4J/kg 0% 4°C 89% 0% 94% 0mm 56% 0mm 1.4dBZ -43° 89% 0.13mm - - 5.6m/s
04:00
997hPa 14J/kg 0% 4.2°C 100% 0% 95% 0.2mm 58% 0.02mm 12dBZ -32° 100% 0.25mm 17m/s 33m/s 5.8m/s
05:00
999hPa 8J/kg 0% 5.8°C 100% 0% 70% 0.43mm 78% 0.01mm 4dBZ -21° 100% 0.5mm - - 5.9m/s
06:00
1000hPa 25J/kg 0% 7°C 98% 0% 46% 0.02mm 73% 0mm -4.2dBZ -9° 98% 0.63mm - - 4.4m/s
07:00
1000hPa 15J/kg 0% 8.8°C 100% 0% 22% 0mm 70% 0mm -12dBZ 2.9° 100% 0.63mm 21m/s 40m/s 3m/s
08:00
1001hPa 24J/kg 0% 9.9°C 50% 0% 38% 0mm 66% 0mm -15dBZ 14° 50% 0.63mm - - 2.9m/s
09:00
1000hPa 36J/kg 0% 10°C 94% 0% 53% 0mm 53% 0.02mm -17dBZ 25° 94% 0.69mm - - 3.7m/s
10:00
1000hPa 25J/kg 0% 11°C 99% 0% 69% 0mm 41% 0mm -20dBZ 34° 99% 0.69mm 21m/s 37m/s 4.5m/s
11:00
1000hPa 23J/kg 0% 11°C 100% 0% 70% 0mm 40% 0mm -7.1dBZ 41° 100% 0mm - - 5.6m/s
12:00
1000hPa 38J/kg 0% 10°C 99% 0% 71% 0mm 43% 0.01mm 5.8dBZ 44° 99% 0mm - - 5.4m/s
13:00
999hPa 20J/kg 0% 11°C 100% 0% 72% 0mm 38% 0mm 19dBZ 43° 100% 0mm 4.3m/s 32m/s 5.7m/s
14:00
999hPa 29J/kg 0% 11°C 100% 0% 76% 0mm 41% 0mm 15dBZ 39° 100% 0mm - - 4.6m/s
15:00
999hPa 42J/kg 0% 10°C 94% 0% 81% 0mm 46% 0.05mm 12dBZ 31° 94% 0mm - - 5.1m/s
16:00
999hPa 44J/kg 0% 11°C 100% 0% 86% 0mm 44% 0mm 8.6dBZ 22° 100% 0.06mm 8.9m/s 32m/s 5.1m/s
17:00
999hPa 39J/kg 0% 11°C 100% 0% 72% 0mm 42% 0mm 1.3dBZ 11° 100% 0mm - - 4.7m/s
18:00
1000hPa 41J/kg 0% 10°C 100% 0% 59% 0mm 45% 0.02mm -6dBZ -0.21° 100% 0mm - - 4.5m/s
19:00
1000hPa 25J/kg 0% 10°C 100% 2% 46% 0mm 53% 0.05mm -13dBZ -12° 100% 0.19mm 8.4m/s 31m/s 4.9m/s
20:00
1001hPa 44J/kg 2% 9.9°C 97% 0% 50% 0.02mm 58% 0.41mm 0.61dBZ -24° 97% 0.38mm - - 4.8m/s
21:00
1002hPa 51J/kg 0% 10°C 96% 0% 54% 0.11mm 67% 0.51mm 14dBZ -36° 96% 0.88mm - - 5.1m/s
22:00
1003hPa 52J/kg 0% 11°C 100% 0% 57% 0.15mm 74% 0.33mm 28dBZ -46° 100% 1.4mm 9.1m/s 32m/s 5.1m/s
23:00
1003hPa 33J/kg 0% 13°C 100% 0% 38% 0mm 73% 0.05mm 22dBZ -55° 100% 0.31mm - - 4.4m/s
Sat, Apr 11 Sunrise 06:42 Sunset 18:00
24:00
1003hPa 8J/kg 0% 13°C 100% 0% 19% 0mm 68% 0.02mm 17dBZ -60° 100% 0.31mm - - 3.9m/s
01:00
1002hPa 6J/kg 0% 10°C 5% 0% 0% 0mm 68% 0mm 11dBZ -59° 5% 0.31mm 6.8m/s 30m/s 3.6m/s
02:00
1002hPa 0J/kg 0% 9.2°C 3% 0% 13% 0mm 68% 0mm 9.7dBZ -53° 3% 0.31mm - - 3.5m/s
03:00
1002hPa 3J/kg 0% 7.5°C 5% 0% 26% 0mm 68% 0mm 8.8dBZ -44° 5% 0.31mm - - 3.3m/s
04:00
1002hPa 0J/kg 0% 6.6°C 4% 0% 39% 0mm 66% 0mm 7.8dBZ -33° 4% 0.31mm 6.9m/s 20m/s 3.4m/s
05:00
1002hPa 0J/kg 0% 7.4°C 5% 0% 47% 0mm 65% 0mm -1.4dBZ -21° 5% 0mm - - 3.3m/s
06:00
1002hPa 0J/kg 0% 7°C 5% 0% 56% 0mm 63% 0mm -11dBZ -9.2° 5% 0mm - - 3.4m/s
07:00
1002hPa 0J/kg 0% 7°C 5% 0% 64% 0mm 63% 0mm -20dBZ 2.8° 5% 0mm 9.8m/s 20m/s 3.7m/s
08:00
1003hPa 0J/kg 0% 6.1°C 5% 0% 73% 0mm 59% 0mm -9.8dBZ 14° 5% 0mm - - 4.2m/s
09:00
1003hPa 0J/kg 0% 6°C 17% 0% 81% 0mm 52% 0mm 0.47dBZ 24° 17% 0mm - - 5.2m/s
10:00
1002hPa 7J/kg 0% 5.2°C 72% 0% 90% 0mm 44% 0mm 11dBZ 33° 72% 0mm 9.1m/s 20m/s 5.2m/s
11:00
1001hPa 12J/kg 0% 5.1°C 100% 0% 84% 0mm 39% 0mm 13dBZ 40° 100% 0mm - - 5.4m/s
12:00
1001hPa 12J/kg 0% 6.2°C 100% 0% 78% 0mm 39% 0.02mm 15dBZ 44° 100% 0mm - - 4.7m/s
13:00
1000hPa 49J/kg 0% 6.6°C 100% 0% 72% 0mm 42% 0.05mm 17dBZ 43° 100% 0.06mm 9.4m/s 15m/s 4.5m/s
14:00
999hPa 56J/kg 0% 9.2°C 97% 93% 78% 0mm 41% 0.33mm 16dBZ 38° 97% 0.13mm - - 5.8m/s
15:00
999hPa 53J/kg 0% 9.1°C 74% 66% 84% 0mm 48% 0.27mm 15dBZ 31° 78% 0.5mm - - 5.9m/s
16:00
999hPa 37J/kg 0% 9.1°C 91% 65% 90% 0mm 50% 0.2mm 14dBZ 21° 91% 0.75mm 5.9m/s 23m/s 6m/s
17:00
1002hPa 42J/kg 0% 9.4°C 73% 43% 83% 0mm 57% 0.2mm 14dBZ 11° 73% 0.67mm - - 7.8m/s
18:00
1005hPa 47J/kg 0% 9.7°C 55% 22% 76% 0mm 64% 0.2mm 14dBZ -0.63° 55% 0.58mm - - 9.7m/s
19:00
1008hPa 52J/kg 0% 10°C 37% 0% 69% 0mm 71% 0.2mm 15dBZ -13° 37% 0.5mm 4.3m/s 27m/s 11m/s
20:00
1008hPa 55J/kg 0% 9.9°C 58% 0% 76% 0mm 71% 0.28mm 15dBZ -25° 58% 0.71mm - - 12m/s
21:00
1008hPa 58J/kg 0% 9.7°C 79% 0% 83% 0mm 71% 0.35mm 14dBZ -36° 79% 0.92mm - - 12m/s
22:00
1008hPa 61J/kg 0% 9.4°C 100% 0% 90% 0mm 72% 0.43mm 14dBZ -47° 100% 1.1mm 6.6m/s 21m/s 12m/s
23:00
1008hPa 63J/kg 0% 9.3°C 89% 0% 86% 0.003mm 72% 0.37mm 15dBZ -55° 89% 1mm - - 11m/s
Sun, Apr 12 Sunrise 06:43 Sunset 17:59
24:00
1008hPa 66J/kg 0% 9.2°C 78% 0% 81% 0.007mm 72% 0.32mm 16dBZ -60° 78% 0.96mm - - 11m/s
01:00
1009hPa 68J/kg 0% 9.1°C 67% 0% 76% 0.01mm 72% 0.26mm 16dBZ -59° 67% 0.88mm 8.7m/s 17m/s 11m/s
02:00
1009hPa 60J/kg 0% 8.8°C 75% 0% 81% 0.05mm 71% 0.21mm 18dBZ -53° 75% 1.2mm - - 11m/s
03:00
1010hPa 53J/kg 0% 8.5°C 83% 0% 85% 0.1mm 69% 0.17mm 19dBZ -44° 83% 1.5mm - - 11m/s
04:00
1010hPa 45J/kg 0% 8.2°C 90% 0% 90% 0.14mm 67% 0.12mm 21dBZ -33° 90% 1.8mm 6m/s 17m/s 11m/s
05:00
1010hPa 45J/kg 0% 8.3°C 93% 0% 89% 0.11mm 64% 0.11mm 19dBZ -21° 93% 1.4mm - - 11m/s
06:00
1010hPa 45J/kg 0% 8.4°C 96% 0% 89% 0.09mm 60% 0.09mm 17dBZ -9.3° 96% 1.1mm - - 11m/s
07:00
1010hPa 45J/kg 0% 8.6°C 99% 0% 88% 0.06mm 56% 0.08mm 15dBZ 2.6° 99% 0.75mm 8.3m/s 19m/s 10m/s
08:00
1011hPa 45J/kg 0% 9.1°C 100% 0% 91% 0.05mm 57% 0.06mm 15dBZ 14° 100% 0.83mm - - 10m/s
09:00
1011hPa 45J/kg 0% 9.6°C 100% 0% 93% 0.05mm 58% 0.03mm 16dBZ 24° 100% 0.92mm - - 11m/s
10:00
1011hPa 45J/kg 0% 10°C 100% 0% 95% 0.04mm 59% 0.01mm 16dBZ 33° 100% 1mm 6.4m/s 16m/s 11m/s
How to read: these inputs help produce the derived score; they are not requirements by themselves.

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