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Rule Storm Chaser

Lorne - Storm Chaser - Australian Coast

Lorne, Victoria, Australia

Dramatic storm conditions — from atmospheric builds to active thunderstorms

No opportunities right now
Here’s what usually blocks matches

No Storm Chaser opportunities in the next 14 days

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Rule requirements (key thresholds)
Storm Intensity · ≥ 55.0% Cloud Drama Score · ≥ 55.0% CAPE · ≥ 1200.0J/kg Lifted Index · ≤ -2.0°C

Tip: Scroll down to the 72-hour table to see exactly which condition fails hour by hour.

Most common blockers (next 72 hours)
Storm Intensity 100% failing
CAPE 100% failing
Cloud Drama Score 94% failing

Currently

Real-time conditions
Cloud Cover0%
Wind Gusts3.1m/s
Precipitation Chance0%
Air Pressure994.2hPa
CAPE0
Lifted Index16.7°C
Wind Gusts3.1m/s
Precipitation0.0mm

Upcoming Opportunities

When all conditions match, PhotoWeather marks an opportunity window.

Times shown in Australia/Melbourne

No opportunities in the next 10 days

See the blocker timeline below to understand which conditions are preventing matches.

What this forecast looks for

Plain-language explanation from the rule

This forecast tracks the dramatic storm systems that bring lightning, massive swells, and atmospheric drama to Australia's eastern coastline. We monitor low-pressure systems, lightning activity, and wave heights to predict when Southern Ocean storms will create spectacular—but safe—photography conditions.

Australia's east coast faces the Tasman Sea and Southern Ocean, which generate powerful weather systems year-round. These storms bring towering seas that crash against coastal cliffs, creating explosions of spray. Lightning storms, particularly during summer, offer opportunities for long-exposure captures over harbors and beaches. Winter storms bring the largest swells and most dramatic cloud formations.

What makes Australian coastal storms exceptional:

  • Southern Ocean swells - Winter low-pressure systems generate massive groundswells that pound Victoria and southern NSW
  • Wollongong sea cliffs - Dramatic headlands where storm waves explode against cliffs in spectacular displays
  • Byron Bay lightning - Subtropical storms bring frequent lightning over the iconic lighthouse and beaches
  • Sydney storm drama - The harbour becomes wild during southerly busters and east coast lows

Best storm photography occurs during winter (June-August) when Southern Ocean low-pressure systems bring large swells and dramatic skies. Summer thunderstorms (November-February) offer lightning opportunities over coastal icons. East coast lows—intense low-pressure systems—create the most extreme conditions but pose significant safety risks. Our forecast helps identify approaching storms so you can position safely with proper conditions. Never stand on exposed rocks during large swells.

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72-hour requirements breakdown

What passed or failed, hour by hour
0matching hours in the next 95 hours
OR logic: one branch per group is enough
Meets requirement
Misses requirement
Time
Australia/Melbourne
Storm Intensity
≥ 55.0%
Cloud Drama Score
≥ 55.0%
CAPE
OR1·B1
≥ 1200.0J/kg
Lifted Index
OR1·B2
≤ -2.0°C
Visibility
≥ 2500.0m
Wind Gusts
≤ 22.0m/s
Sun, Feb 22
06:000%44%0J/kg3.2°C24135m4.3m/s
07:0013%72%0J/kg1.9°C20912m13m/s
08:0015%65%25J/kg-0.2°C16227m14m/s
09:0017%68%8J/kg0.3°C24135m14m/s
10:0017%57%1J/kg0.3°C24135m15m/s
11:0026%47%0J/kg2°C24135m15m/s
12:0015%45%0J/kg1.6°C24135m15m/s
13:0028%26%5J/kg1.4°C20883m17m/s
14:0039%26%0J/kg1.5°C7889m15m/s
15:0032%45%9J/kg0.7°C8406m14m/s
16:0025%45%25J/kg-0.7°C9115m11m/s
17:0035%55%6J/kg2°C19380m10m/s
18:0018%51%17J/kg2.1°C6905m7.4m/s
19:0018%57%8J/kg1.5°C13261m11m/s
20:0041%38%1J/kg2.6°C23984m9.7m/s
21:0018%31%1J/kg2.3°C24135m9.4m/s
22:0015%15%0J/kg6°C24135m8.9m/s
23:0033%15%0J/kg14°C24134m8m/s
Mon, Feb 23
24:000%15%0J/kg14°C24135m6.7m/s
01:000%11%0J/kg15°C24135m5.7m/s
02:0014%10%0J/kg16°C24135m4.6m/s
03:000%2.2%0J/kg15°C24135m3.9m/s
04:000%1.7%0J/kg16°C24135m3m/s
05:0013%0.7%0J/kg16°C24135m3m/s
06:000%0.5%0J/kg17°C24134m3.1m/s
07:000%7.4%0J/kg17°C24134m2.7m/s
08:0012%7.6%0J/kg18°C24135m3.3m/s
09:000%8.8%0J/kg17°C24135m3.5m/s
10:000%7.6%0J/kg17°C24135m2.7m/s
11:0012%5.8%0J/kg17°C24135m2.5m/s
12:000%4.5%0J/kg17°C24135m2.6m/s
13:000%2.5%0J/kg16°C24135m2.9m/s
14:0013%2.5%0J/kg16°C24135m2.8m/s
15:000%4.5%0J/kg15°C24134m2.9m/s
16:000%4.5%0J/kg14°C24135m2.8m/s
17:0013%5.5%0J/kg14°C24134m3.2m/s
18:000%5.7%0J/kg13°C24135m3.3m/s
19:000%6.5%0J/kg14°C24134m3.5m/s
20:0012%7%0J/kg15°C24135m4.4m/s
21:000%8.4%0J/kg16°C24134m5.2m/s
22:000%0%0J/kg16°C24134m5.6m/s
23:0012%0%0J/kg15°C24135m5.4m/s
Tue, Feb 24
24:000%0%0J/kg13°C24134m4.9m/s
01:000%0.1%0J/kg12°C24135m4m/s
02:0011%0.8%0J/kg11°C24135m3.2m/s
03:000%4.8%0J/kg9.3°C24134m2.6m/s
04:000%14%0J/kg2.8°C24134m2.2m/s
05:009.8%15%11J/kg0.7°C24134m1.4m/s
06:000%15%127J/kg-0.4°C24135m1.1m/s
07:000%43%91J/kg-0.3°C24135m1.3m/s
08:000%41%223J/kg-1.4°C24135m1.1m/s
09:000%97%245J/kg-1.4°C22639m1.8m/s
10:000%50%305J/kg-1.9°C24134m2.6m/s
11:0012%51%213J/kg-1.1°C22833m2.1m/s
12:000%33%36J/kg-0.3°C24134m2.7m/s
13:000%32%3J/kg-0.1°C24135m3.8m/s
14:0014%24%0J/kg1.2°C23173m2.1m/s
15:000%38%0J/kg1°C24135m3.4m/s
16:000%44%10J/kg0.7°C24135m4.7m/s
17:0016%57%145J/kg-0.6°C19419m7.5m/s
18:000%50%46J/kg-0.2°C24134m7.9m/s
19:000%50%13J/kg0.4°C24134m7.4m/s
20:0015%67%0J/kg1.6°C24135m8.2m/s
21:000%37%0J/kg5°C24135m7.5m/s
22:000%15%0J/kg6.5°C24134m6.8m/s
23:0016%15%0J/kg6.3°C24135m6.4m/s
Wed, Feb 25
24:000%15%0J/kg6.2°C24134m6.9m/s
01:000%15%0J/kg5.8°C24135m7.3m/s
02:0018%13%0J/kg5.7°C24135m7.2m/s
03:000%7.7%0J/kg4.9°C24134m5.5m/s
04:000%5.8%0J/kg6.5°C24135m5.4m/s
05:0015%6.9%0J/kg8.9°C24135m5.8m/s
06:000%8%0J/kg11°C24134m6.6m/s
07:000%39%0J/kg12°C24134m7.1m/s
08:0017%45%3J/kg11°C24134m7m/s
09:000%55%13J/kg9.8°C24134m6.2m/s
10:000%29%24J/kg9.8°C24108m6.4m/s
11:0016%24%17J/kg11°C24067m6.4m/s
12:000%28%11J/kg12°C24090m6.8m/s
13:000%30%5.7J/kg13°C24112m7.3m/s
14:0013%2.5%0J/kg14°C24135m7.7m/s
15:000%21%0.33J/kg14°C24135m7.9m/s
16:000%30%0.67J/kg14°C24135m8.1m/s
17:0015%36%1J/kg13°C24135m8.2m/s
18:000%43%0.67J/kg12°C24135m7.1m/s
19:000%36%0.33J/kg11°C24135m6m/s
20:0011%22%0J/kg9.7°C24135m4.9m/s
21:000%40%2.3J/kg8.7°C24135m6m/s
22:000%0%4.7J/kg7.6°C24135m7.1m/s
23:0015%0%7J/kg6.5°C24135m8.3m/s
Thu, Feb 26
24:000%0%12J/kg6.4°C22449m8.8m/s
01:000%0%17J/kg6.3°C20762m9.3m/s
02:0018%0%22J/kg6.1°C19076m9.8m/s
03:000%0%22J/kg6.3°C20762m9.5m/s
04:000%0%21J/kg6.5°C22448m9.1m/s
How to read: colored cells show whether each predicate requirement is met; highlighted rows mean the full rule matched (an opportunity). For OR groups, only one branch is required, so some OR-branch predicates can be ✕ even in a matching hour.

What does Cloud Drama Score mean?

Inputs that drive the score

This derived score summarizes multiple raw weather signals. The table below shows the supporting inputs hour by hour, so you can see what's pushing the score up or down.

Time
Australia/Melbourne
Air Pressure
hPa
CAPE
J/kg
High Clouds
%
Lifted Index
°C
Low Clouds
%
Mid-Level Clouds
%
Precipitation Chance
%
Rainfall
mm
Relative Humidity
%
Showers
mm
Simulated Reflectivity
dBZ
Solar Elevation
°
Total Cloud Coverage
%
Total Precipitation
mm
Wind Shear 0-3 km
m/s
Wind Shear 0-6 km
m/s
Wind Speed
m/s
Mon, Feb 23 Sunrise 07:01 Sunset 20:14
06:00
994hPa 0J/kg 0% 17°C 0% 0% 0% 0mm 81% 0mm -20dBZ -12° 0% 0mm - - 2.1m/s
07:00
995hPa 0J/kg 0% 17°C 0% 0% 0% 0mm 79% 0mm -20dBZ -0.69° 0% 0mm - - 1.9m/s
08:00
996hPa 0J/kg 0% 18°C 0% 0% 0% 0mm 75% 0mm -20dBZ 11° 0% 0mm 12m/s 20m/s 2m/s
09:00
997hPa 0J/kg 0% 17°C 0% 0% 0% 0mm 65% 0mm -20dBZ 22° 0% 0mm - - 2m/s
10:00
997hPa 0J/kg 0% 17°C 0% 0% 0% 0mm 57% 0mm -20dBZ 34° 0% 0mm - - 2.5m/s
11:00
997hPa 0J/kg 0% 17°C 0% 0% 0% 0mm 54% 0mm -20dBZ 45° 0% 0mm 11m/s 19m/s 2.9m/s
12:00
997hPa 0J/kg 0% 17°C 0% 0% 0% 0mm 54% 0mm -20dBZ 54° 0% 0mm - - 3.4m/s
13:00
997hPa 0J/kg 0% 16°C 0% 0% 0% 0mm 55% 0mm -20dBZ 60° 0% 0mm - - 3.5m/s
14:00
997hPa 0J/kg 0% 16°C 0% 0% 0% 0mm 56% 0mm -20dBZ 61° 0% 0mm 11m/s 16m/s 3.5m/s
15:00
997hPa 0J/kg 0% 15°C 0% 0% 0% 0mm 56% 0mm -20dBZ 56° 0% 0mm - - 3.5m/s
16:00
996hPa 0J/kg 0% 14°C 0% 0% 0% 0mm 57% 0mm -20dBZ 47° 0% 0mm - - 3.4m/s
17:00
996hPa 0J/kg 0% 14°C 0% 0% 0% 0mm 58% 0mm -20dBZ 37° 0% 0mm 11m/s 15m/s 3.4m/s
18:00
996hPa 0J/kg 0% 13°C 0% 0% 0% 0mm 59% 0mm -20dBZ 25° 0% 0mm - - 3m/s
19:00
996hPa 0J/kg 0% 14°C 0% 0% 0% 0mm 62% 0mm -20dBZ 13° 0% 0mm - - 2.7m/s
20:00
997hPa 0J/kg 0% 15°C 0% 0% 0% 0mm 66% 0mm -20dBZ 0% 0mm 11m/s 17m/s 2.6m/s
21:00
997hPa 0J/kg 0% 16°C 0% 0% 0% 0mm 68% 0mm -20dBZ -9.5° 0% 0mm - - 3m/s
22:00
997hPa 0J/kg 0% 16°C 0% 0% 0% 0mm 69% 0mm -20dBZ -20° 0% 0mm - - 3.2m/s
23:00
997hPa 0J/kg 0% 15°C 0% 0% 0% 0mm 73% 0mm -20dBZ -29° 0% 0mm 12m/s 18m/s 2.9m/s
Tue, Feb 24 Sunrise 07:02 Sunset 20:13
24:00
997hPa 0J/kg 0% 13°C 0% 0% 23% 0mm 78% 0mm -20dBZ -37° 0% 0mm - - 2.7m/s
01:00
997hPa 0J/kg 0% 12°C 7% 0% 47% 0mm 82% 0mm -20dBZ -41° 7% 0mm - - 2.3m/s
02:00
995hPa 0J/kg 0% 11°C 7% 0% 70% 0mm 84% 0mm -20dBZ -41° 7% 0mm 10m/s 16m/s 2m/s
03:00
994hPa 0J/kg 0% 9.3°C 5% 0% 53% 0mm 86% 0mm -10dBZ -38° 5% 0mm - - 1.5m/s
04:00
994hPa 0J/kg 0% 2.8°C 2% 0% 36% 0mm 87% 0mm -0.6dBZ -31° 2% 0mm - - 1.1m/s
05:00
994hPa 11J/kg 0% 0.7°C 9% 0% 18% 0mm 88% 0mm 9.1dBZ -23° 9% 0mm 15m/s 14m/s 0.62m/s
06:00
994hPa 127J/kg 0% -0.4°C 100% 0% 33% 0mm 88% 0mm 13dBZ -12° 100% 0mm - - 0.63m/s
07:00
994hPa 91J/kg 0% -0.3°C 11% 0% 48% 0mm 83% 0mm 17dBZ -0.95° 11% 0mm - - 0.89m/s
08:00
994hPa 223J/kg 0% -1.4°C 13% 0% 62% 0mm 78% 0mm 21dBZ 10° 13% 0mm 8.8m/s 9.4m/s 0.74m/s
09:00
994hPa 245J/kg 0% -1.4°C 58% 15% 65% 0mm 71% 0.07mm 19dBZ 22° 58% 0.06mm - - 1.2m/s
10:00
994hPa 305J/kg 0% -1.9°C 73% 0% 68% 0mm 65% 0mm 17dBZ 34° 73% 0.13mm - - 1.2m/s
11:00
994hPa 213J/kg 0% -1.1°C 96% 97% 71% 0mm 68% 0.07mm 15dBZ 44° 97% 0.31mm 10m/s 11m/s 0.54m/s
12:00
995hPa 36J/kg 0% -0.3°C 14% 0% 62% 0mm 72% 0mm 9dBZ 54° 14% 0.06mm - - 1.3m/s
13:00
994hPa 3J/kg 0% -0.1°C 100% 2% 53% 0mm 53% 0.09mm 2.7dBZ 60° 100% 0.19mm - - 0.82m/s
14:00
994hPa 0J/kg 0% 1.2°C 95% 0% 44% 0mm 72% 0.13mm -3.6dBZ 61° 95% 0.31mm 17m/s 17m/s 1.6m/s
15:00
994hPa 0J/kg 0% 1°C 72% 4% 48% 0mm 73% 0mm 1.4dBZ 56° 72% 0.38mm - - 3.2m/s
16:00
994hPa 10J/kg 0% 0.7°C 79% 0% 51% 0mm 68% 0mm 6.5dBZ 47° 79% 0.38mm - - 3.8m/s
17:00
994hPa 145J/kg 0% -0.6°C 66% 94% 54% 0mm 67% 0.19mm 11dBZ 36° 100% 0.5mm 15m/s 18m/s 5.3m/s
18:00
995hPa 46J/kg 0% -0.2°C 18% 0% 53% 0mm 75% 0mm 1dBZ 25° 18% 0mm - - 4.9m/s
19:00
996hPa 13J/kg 0% 0.4°C 19% 0% 51% 0mm 80% 0mm -9.4dBZ 13° 19% 0mm - - 5.3m/s
20:00
997hPa 0J/kg 0% 1.6°C 64% 0% 50% 0mm 84% 0mm -20dBZ 1.8° 64% 0mm 18m/s 24m/s 5.5m/s
21:00
998hPa 0J/kg 0% 5°C 100% 0% 50% 0mm 82% 0mm -20dBZ -9.8° 100% 0mm - - 4.4m/s
22:00
999hPa 0J/kg 0% 6.5°C 84% 0% 50% 0.01mm 80% 0mm -20dBZ -20° 84% 0mm - - 4m/s
23:00
999hPa 0J/kg 0% 6.3°C 62% 0% 50% 0mm 80% 0mm -20dBZ -30° 62% 0mm 18m/s 25m/s 3.7m/s
Wed, Feb 25 Sunrise 07:03 Sunset 20:11
24:00
999hPa 0J/kg 0% 6.2°C 1% 0% 41% 0mm 78% 0mm -20dBZ -37° 1% 0mm - - 4m/s
01:00
999hPa 0J/kg 0% 5.8°C 4% 0% 33% 0mm 76% 0mm -20dBZ -41° 4% 0mm - - 4.1m/s
02:00
999hPa 0J/kg 0% 5.7°C 0% 0% 24% 0mm 76% 0mm -20dBZ -42° 0% 0mm 17m/s 26m/s 4m/s
03:00
999hPa 0J/kg 0% 4.9°C 0% 0% 44% 0mm 78% 0mm -20dBZ -38° 0% 0mm - - 3.2m/s
04:00
999hPa 0J/kg 0% 6.5°C 0% 0% 63% 0mm 80% 0mm -20dBZ -32° 0% 0mm - - 3.2m/s
05:00
1000hPa 0J/kg 0% 8.9°C 0% 0% 82% 0mm 82% 0mm -20dBZ -23° 0% 0mm 15m/s 22m/s 3.3m/s
06:00
1000hPa 0J/kg 0% 11°C 1% 0% 55% 0mm 84% 0mm -9.9dBZ -13° 1% 0mm - - 3.6m/s
07:00
1001hPa 0J/kg 0% 12°C 12% 0% 27% 0mm 85% 0mm 0.17dBZ -1.2° 12% 0mm - - 3.7m/s
08:00
1002hPa 3J/kg 0% 11°C 16% 0% 0% 0mm 81% 0mm 10dBZ 10° 16% 0mm 14m/s 21m/s 3.9m/s
09:00
1002hPa 13J/kg 0% 9.8°C 38% 0% 0% 0mm 78% 0.02mm 9.7dBZ 22° 38% 0mm - - 4.5m/s
10:00
1003hPa 24J/kg 0% 9.8°C 91% 0% 0% 0mm 80% 0.12mm 9.1dBZ 33° 91% 0.13mm - - 5.3m/s
11:00
1003hPa 17J/kg 0% 11°C 100% 0% 0% 0mm 82% 0.11mm 8.4dBZ 44° 100% 0.19mm 12m/s 23m/s 5.2m/s
12:00
1003hPa 11J/kg 0% 12°C 67% 0% 0% 0mm 79% 0.07mm -1dBZ 53° 67% 0.13mm - - 5.1m/s
13:00
1003hPa 5.7J/kg 0% 13°C 34% 0% 0% 0mm 76% 0.04mm -11dBZ 59° 34% 0.06mm - - 4.9m/s
14:00
1003hPa 0J/kg 0% 14°C 1% 0% 0% 0mm 73% 0mm -20dBZ 60° 1% 0mm 8.6m/s 21m/s 4.7m/s
15:00
1003hPa 0.33J/kg 0% 14°C 16% 0% 0% 0mm 74% 0mm -20dBZ 55° 16% 0mm - - 4.9m/s
16:00
1004hPa 0.67J/kg 0% 14°C 32% 0% 0% 0mm 75% 0mm -20dBZ 47° 32% 0mm - - 5.1m/s
17:00
1004hPa 1J/kg 0% 13°C 47% 0% 0% 0mm 76% 0mm -20dBZ 36° 47% 0mm 9.7m/s 20m/s 5.2m/s
18:00
1003hPa 0.67J/kg 0% 12°C 35% 0% 3% 0mm 78% 0mm -20dBZ 25° 35% 0mm - - 4.3m/s
19:00
1003hPa 0.33J/kg 0% 11°C 23% 0% 6% 0mm 79% 0mm -20dBZ 13° 23% 0mm - - 3.5m/s
20:00
1002hPa 0J/kg 0% 9.7°C 11% 0% 8% 0mm 80% 0mm -20dBZ 1.5° 11% 0mm 9m/s 17m/s 2.6m/s
21:00
1002hPa 2.3J/kg 0% 8.7°C 41% 0% 19% 0.02mm 83% 0mm -20dBZ -10° 41% 0mm - - 3.1m/s
22:00
1002hPa 4.7J/kg 0% 7.6°C 70% 0% 29% 0.04mm 86% 0mm -20dBZ -21° 70% 0mm - - 3.6m/s
23:00
1001hPa 7J/kg 0% 6.5°C 100% 0% 39% 0.06mm 90% 0mm -20dBZ -30° 100% 0mm 11m/s 18m/s 4.1m/s
Thu, Feb 26 Sunrise 07:04 Sunset 20:10
24:00
1002hPa 12J/kg 0% 6.4°C 100% 0% 39% 0.05mm 91% 0.02mm -20dBZ -37° 100% 0.1mm - - 4.9m/s
01:00
1002hPa 17J/kg 0% 6.3°C 100% 0% 39% 0.05mm 92% 0.05mm -20dBZ -42° 100% 0.21mm - - 5.7m/s
02:00
1002hPa 22J/kg 0% 6.1°C 100% 0% 39% 0.04mm 93% 0.07mm -20dBZ -42° 100% 0.31mm 11m/s 18m/s 6.5m/s
03:00
1002hPa 22J/kg 0% 6.3°C 100% 0% 45% 0.04mm 91% 0.06mm -10dBZ -39° 100% 0.42mm - - 6.2m/s
04:00
1002hPa 21J/kg 1% 6.5°C 99% 0% 50% 0.05mm 89% 0.04mm -0.73dBZ -32° 99% 0.52mm - - 6m/s
05:00
1003hPa 21J/kg 1% 6.7°C 99% 0% 56% 0.05mm 87% 0.03mm 8.9dBZ -23° 99% 0.63mm 15m/s 21m/s 5.7m/s
How to read: these inputs help produce the derived score; they are not requirements by themselves.

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