Rule Storm Chaser

Storm Chaser Forecast for Byron Bay, Australian Coast

Byron Bay, New South Wales, Australia

Byron Bay's headland curves around surf beaches below Cape Byron Lighthouse, with rocky coves and the eastern horizon anchoring sunrise frames.

Currently

Real-time conditions

Storm Intensity

CAPE6

Lifted Index5.9°C

Wind Gusts3.3m/s

Precipitation0.0mm

Upcoming Opportunities

When all conditions match, PhotoWeather marks an opportunity window.

Times shown in Australia/Sydney

No opportunities in the next 14 days

See which requirements block the most forecast hours below.

Most common blockers (95-hour forecast)

Storm Intensity100% of hours

How this forecast is evaluated

See which weather signals PhotoWeather uses to identify Storm Chaser conditions across Australian Coast. The requirements and hourly values below show how those signals apply at Byron Bay.

Explore Storm Chaser conditions across Australian Coast →

Recorded match history

Completed PhotoWeather forecast matches recorded for this exact rule at Byron Bay during the last 365 days.

Last 30 days

recorded matching windows · 53% average confidence

Last 90 days

recorded matching windows · 53% average confidence

Last 365 days

recorded matching windows · 53% average confidence

Most frequent recorded start hour

16:00 local time, shared by 5 of 22 matches recorded in the last 365 days.

Most represented month

July, with 19 of 22 matches recorded in the last 365 days.

These figures use completed PhotoWeather MatchEvent records from the previous 365 days only. They describe recorded forecast matches, not observations, climatological probability, or a guarantee of future conditions.

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95-hour requirements breakdown

When available, the detailed table below covers only the stated 95-hour horizon (typically 72–168 hours, depending on available hourly data). Opportunity records above span the next 14 days, so this table does not explain that entire 14-day period.

What passed or failed, hour by hour

0matching hours in the next 95 hours

AND logic: all conditions required

Meets requirement

Misses requirement

Time Australia/Sydney	Storm Intensity ≥ 40.0%
Mon, Aug 17
17:00	11%
18:00	11%
19:00	16%
20:00	12%
21:00	15%
22:00	18%
23:00	13%
Tue, Aug 18
24:00	13%
01:00	14%
02:00	13%
03:00	14%
04:00	20%
05:00	17%
06:00	15%
07:00	17%
08:00	17%
09:00	17%
10:00	19%
11:00	12%
12:00	10%
13:00	0%
14:00	0%
15:00	9%
16:00	13%
17:00	9%
18:00	7%
19:00	9%
20:00	7%
21:00	7%
22:00	11%
23:00	4%
Wed, Aug 19
24:00	0%
01:00	0%
02:00	7%
03:00	10%
04:00	17%
05:00	11%
06:00	11%
07:00	10%
08:00	13%
09:00	13%
10:00	15%
11:00	17%
12:00	18%
13:00	19%
14:00	18%
15:00	16%
16:00	19%
17:00	9%
18:00	16%
19:00	18%
20:00	18%
21:00	16%
22:00	18%
23:00	10%
Thu, Aug 20
24:00	12%
01:00	15%
02:00	14%
03:00	13%
04:00	16%
05:00	13%
06:00	14%
07:00	15%
08:00	11%
09:00	13%
10:00	15%
11:00	8%
12:00	6.9%
13:00	10%
14:00	0%
15:00	0%
16:00	0%
17:00	0%
18:00	0%
19:00	0%
20:00	0%
21:00	0%
22:00	0%
23:00	0%
Fri, Aug 21
24:00	0%
01:00	0%
02:00	0%
03:00	0%
04:00	0%
05:00	0%
06:00	0%
07:00	0%
08:00	0%
09:00	0%
10:00	0%
11:00	0%
12:00	0%
13:00	0%
14:00	0%
15:00	0%

How to read: colored cells show whether each predicate requirement is met; highlighted rows mean the full rule matched (an opportunity).

What does Storm Intensity mean?

Inputs that drive the score

This derived score summarizes multiple raw weather signals. The table below shows the supporting inputs hour by hour, so you can see what's pushing the score up or down.

Time Australia/Sydney	Air Pressure hPa	CAPE J/kg	Convective Precip Fraction fraction	Lifted Index °C	Precipitation Chance %	Rainfall mm	Showers mm	Simulated Reflectivity dBZ	Total Precipitation mm	Visibility m	Wind Gusts m/s	Wind Shear 0-3 km m/s	Wind Shear 0-6 km m/s	Wind Speed m/s
Tue, Aug 18 Sunrise 06:15 Sunset 17:24
18:00 ☾	1023hPa	6J/kg	0fraction	5.9°C	77%	0mm	0.01mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24135m	3.3m/s	-	-	1.5m/s
19:00 ☾	1024hPa	14J/kg	0fraction	6.3°C	74%	0mm	0.01mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24135m	1m/s	6.4m/s	13m/s	1.1m/s
20:00 ☾	1025hPa	15J/kg	0fraction	6.8°C	77%	0mm	0.01mm	-15dBZ	0mm	24135m	1m/s	-	-	1m/s
21:00 ☾	1025hPa	19J/kg	0fraction	6.3°C	79%	0mm	0.04mm	-11dBZ	0.06mm	24134m	1.8m/s	-	-	1.2m/s
22:00 ☾	1025hPa	37J/kg	0fraction	5.6°C	82%	0mm	0.03mm	-6.1dBZ	0.06mm	24135m	1.9m/s	6.4m/s	13m/s	1.2m/s
23:00 ☾	1025hPa	21J/kg	0.12fraction	6.2°C	62%	0.01mm	0mm	-10dBZ	0mm	24134m	1.1m/s	-	-	0.95m/s
Wed, Aug 19 Sunrise 06:15 Sunset 17:24
24:00 ☾	1024hPa	25J/kg	0.24fraction	5.8°C	42%	0mm	0mm	-14dBZ	0mm	24135m	1m/s	-	-	1.1m/s
01:00 ☾	1024hPa	30J/kg	0.37fraction	4.7°C	22%	0mm	0.01mm	-19dBZ	0mm	24135m	1.6m/s	7.3m/s	13m/s	1.1m/s
02:00 ☾	1024hPa	24J/kg	0.56fraction	4.1°C	42%	0mm	0.1mm	-19dBZ	0.06mm	24134m	1.2m/s	-	-	1.2m/s
03:00 ☾	1023hPa	28J/kg	0.75fraction	3.4°C	62%	0mm	0.06mm	-20dBZ	0.19mm	24135m	1.7m/s	-	-	1.2m/s
04:00 ☾	1023hPa	31J/kg	0.94fraction	3.4°C	82%	0mm	0.02mm	-20dBZ	0.19mm	24135m	2.5m/s	7m/s	12m/s	1.5m/s
05:00 ☾	1024hPa	30J/kg	0.96fraction	3.2°C	79%	0mm	0.01mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24134m	2.4m/s	-	-	1.7m/s
06:00 ☾	1024hPa	29J/kg	0.98fraction	3.1°C	77%	0mm	0.02mm	-20dBZ	0.06mm	24134m	3.7m/s	-	-	1.7m/s
07:00 ☾	1024hPa	30J/kg	1fraction	3.1°C	74%	0mm	0.02mm	-20dBZ	0.06mm	24134m	3.9m/s	4.9m/s	9.7m/s	1.6m/s
08:00 ☾	1025hPa	30J/kg	1fraction	3.1°C	79%	0mm	0.05mm	-20dBZ	0.13mm	24135m	3.4m/s	-	-	1.6m/s
09:00 ☾	1025hPa	18J/kg	1fraction	3.1°C	85%	0mm	0.14mm	-19dBZ	0.31mm	24134m	3.3m/s	-	-	1.7m/s
10:00	1025hPa	45J/kg	1fraction	2.4°C	90%	0mm	0.36mm	-19dBZ	0.69mm	14927m	2.8m/s	1.4m/s	8.9m/s	1.7m/s
11:00	1024hPa	62J/kg	1fraction	1.9°C	73%	0mm	0.91mm	-7dBZ	0.63mm	10659m	2.6m/s	-	-	1.7m/s
12:00	1023hPa	85J/kg	1fraction	1.5°C	56%	0mm	0.86mm	5dBZ	1.4mm	8887m	2.1m/s	-	-	1.4m/s
13:00	1022hPa	84J/kg	1fraction	1.4°C	39%	0.01mm	0.72mm	17dBZ	2.2mm	9604m	2.2m/s	1.3m/s	7.5m/s	1.2m/s
14:00	1022hPa	71J/kg	0.84fraction	1.8°C	46%	0mm	0.49mm	18dBZ	2.8mm	14413m	2.5m/s	-	-	1m/s
15:00	1021hPa	70J/kg	0.69fraction	2°C	54%	0mm	0.46mm	18dBZ	3.3mm	15095m	2.8m/s	-	-	1.1m/s
16:00	1021hPa	59J/kg	0.53fraction	2.3°C	62%	0mm	0.49mm	19dBZ	3.8mm	12622m	2.4m/s	2.3m/s	8.7m/s	1.1m/s
17:00	1021hPa	50J/kg	0.44fraction	2.5°C	62%	0mm	0.45mm	5.8dBZ	0.5mm	22843m	1.2m/s	-	-	1.1m/s
18:00 ☾	1022hPa	56J/kg	0.36fraction	2.5°C	63%	0mm	0.8mm	-7.1dBZ	1mm	8940m	0.91m/s	-	-	0.88m/s
19:00 ☾	1022hPa	62J/kg	0.28fraction	2.6°C	64%	0mm	0.86mm	-20dBZ	1.7mm	9724m	1m/s	1.2m/s	8.2m/s	1.1m/s
20:00 ☾	1023hPa	69J/kg	0.39fraction	2.6°C	66%	0mm	0.71mm	-20dBZ	2.6mm	22059m	1.1m/s	-	-	1.2m/s
21:00 ☾	1023hPa	59J/kg	0.51fraction	2.3°C	69%	0mm	0.44mm	-20dBZ	3.3mm	22704m	1.1m/s	-	-	1.1m/s
22:00 ☾	1023hPa	51J/kg	0.62fraction	2.5°C	72%	0mm	0.46mm	-20dBZ	3.7mm	15641m	1.1m/s	3.2m/s	6.8m/s	1.2m/s
23:00 ☾	1023hPa	35J/kg	0.75fraction	2.5°C	61%	0mm	0.34mm	-20dBZ	0.25mm	15808m	1.2m/s	-	-	1.3m/s
Thu, Aug 20 Sunrise 06:14 Sunset 17:24
24:00 ☾	1022hPa	19J/kg	0.87fraction	2.5°C	50%	0mm	0.26mm	-20dBZ	0.44mm	5377m	1.9m/s	-	-	1.3m/s
01:00 ☾	1022hPa	21J/kg	1fraction	2.5°C	39%	0mm	0.32mm	-20dBZ	0.69mm	3537m	2.6m/s	6.7m/s	7.1m/s	1.6m/s
02:00 ☾	1022hPa	18J/kg	0.87fraction	2.5°C	46%	0.03mm	0.08mm	-20dBZ	0.81mm	3464m	3.1m/s	-	-	1.7m/s
03:00 ☾	1021hPa	7J/kg	0.74fraction	2.6°C	54%	0.01mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0.94mm	3661m	3.6m/s	-	-	1.6m/s
04:00 ☾	1022hPa	9J/kg	0.61fraction	2.4°C	62%	0mm	0.01mm	-20dBZ	0.94mm	3493m	3.9m/s	4m/s	7.2m/s	1.8m/s
05:00 ☾	1022hPa	6J/kg	0.74fraction	2.3°C	64%	0mm	0.03mm	-20dBZ	0mm	3378m	3.4m/s	-	-	1.5m/s
06:00 ☾	1022hPa	11J/kg	0.87fraction	2.1°C	66%	0mm	0.03mm	-20dBZ	0.06mm	3386m	2.7m/s	-	-	1.4m/s
07:00 ☾	1023hPa	17J/kg	1fraction	2.1°C	69%	0mm	0.04mm	-20dBZ	0.06mm	3413m	2.6m/s	2.2m/s	8.2m/s	1.4m/s
08:00 ☾	1023hPa	21J/kg	0.93fraction	2.2°C	74%	0.02mm	0.07mm	-8.9dBZ	0.13mm	24135m	2.8m/s	-	-	1.4m/s
09:00 ☾	1023hPa	26J/kg	0.87fraction	2.5°C	79%	0.06mm	0.1mm	2.2dBZ	0.25mm	18727m	2.8m/s	-	-	1.4m/s
10:00	1023hPa	25J/kg	0.8fraction	3.2°C	84%	0.01mm	0.15mm	13dBZ	0.38mm	24068m	2.6m/s	3.5m/s	9.9m/s	1.2m/s
11:00	1022hPa	23J/kg	0.73fraction	3°C	56%	0mm	0.17mm	11dBZ	0.13mm	22840m	1.7m/s	-	-	0.76m/s
12:00	1021hPa	41J/kg	0.65fraction	2.5°C	28%	0mm	0.52mm	9.6dBZ	0.38mm	21761m	1.2m/s	-	-	0.73m/s
13:00	1020hPa	55J/kg	0.57fraction	2.3°C	0%	0mm	0.11mm	7.8dBZ	0.69mm	24134m	2m/s	5.3m/s	12m/s	0.99m/s
14:00	1020hPa	44J/kg	0.39fraction	2.4°C	0%	0mm	0.12mm	-0.82dBZ	0.88mm	22994m	2.6m/s	-	-	1.5m/s
15:00	1019hPa	15J/kg	0.21fraction	3.3°C	0%	0mm	0.04mm	-9.4dBZ	0.94mm	23846m	2.7m/s	-	-	1.5m/s
16:00	1019hPa	18J/kg	0.02fraction	3.1°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-18dBZ	0.94mm	24135m	3m/s	6m/s	11m/s	1.7m/s
17:00	1019hPa	19J/kg	0.01fraction	3.2°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-19dBZ	0mm	24134m	2.5m/s	-	-	1.5m/s
18:00 ☾	1020hPa	12J/kg	0.01fraction	3.1°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-19dBZ	0mm	24134m	1.4m/s	-	-	1.6m/s
19:00 ☾	1020hPa	24J/kg	0fraction	3.6°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24135m	3.5m/s	11m/s	12m/s	1.7m/s
20:00 ☾	1020hPa	21J/kg	0fraction	3.8°C	17%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24135m	1.4m/s	-	-	1.4m/s
21:00 ☾	1020hPa	8J/kg	0fraction	4.2°C	33%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24135m	1.3m/s	-	-	1.5m/s
22:00 ☾	1020hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	4.3°C	50%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24135m	1.3m/s	9.3m/s	15m/s	1.4m/s
23:00 ☾	1019hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	5°C	33%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24135m	1.4m/s	-	-	1.3m/s
Fri, Aug 21 Sunrise 06:13 Sunset 17:25
24:00 ☾	1018hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	5.7°C	17%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24135m	1.5m/s	-	-	1.2m/s
01:00 ☾	1017hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	6.4°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24135m	1.5m/s	8.3m/s	14m/s	1.1m/s
02:00 ☾	1017hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	6.1°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24135m	1.9m/s	-	-	1.4m/s
03:00 ☾	1017hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	5.7°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24135m	2.3m/s	-	-	1.7m/s
04:00 ☾	1017hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	5.4°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24135m	2.7m/s	7.6m/s	15m/s	1.9m/s
05:00 ☾	1016hPa	0.67J/kg	0fraction	4.7°C	7%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24135m	2.9m/s	-	-	2.4m/s
06:00 ☾	1015hPa	1.3J/kg	0fraction	4.1°C	15%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24135m	3.1m/s	-	-	2.8m/s
07:00 ☾	1014hPa	2J/kg	0fraction	3.5°C	22%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24135m	3.3m/s	10m/s	13m/s	3.2m/s
08:00 ☾	1014hPa	1.3J/kg	0fraction	3.3°C	20%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24135m	3.5m/s	-	-	3m/s
09:00 ☾	1013hPa	0.67J/kg	0fraction	3.1°C	19%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24135m	3.8m/s	-	-	2.8m/s
10:00	1013hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	2.9°C	17%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24135m	4.1m/s	7.9m/s	11m/s	2.6m/s
11:00	1013hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	3.4°C	11%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24135m	4.1m/s	-	-	2.2m/s
12:00	1014hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	3.9°C	6%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24135m	4m/s	-	-	1.9m/s
13:00	1014hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	4.3°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24135m	4m/s	6.6m/s	9.2m/s	1.5m/s
14:00	1015hPa	0.67J/kg	0fraction	4.3°C	7%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24135m	4m/s	-	-	1.6m/s
15:00	1015hPa	1.3J/kg	0fraction	4.3°C	15%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24135m	4m/s	-	-	1.6m/s
16:00	1015hPa	2J/kg	0fraction	4.3°C	22%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24135m	4.1m/s	8.4m/s	10m/s	1.6m/s
17:00	1015hPa	3J/kg	0fraction	4.4°C	15%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24135m	3.3m/s	-	-	1.5m/s

How to read: these inputs help produce the derived score; they are not requirements by themselves.

How this forecast is made

Opportunities are threshold-based signals: PhotoWeather checks whether forecast conditions match the rules for a photography scenario. They are planning guidance, not guarantees. Forecasts can change as new model runs arrive, and confidence generally decreases farther into the forecast horizon, so recheck conditions before travelling.

The weather forecast foundation comes through Open-Meteo , which aggregates models from weather agencies. PhotoWeather applies condition-specific thresholds and derived calculations; not every condition uses every model or data input.

How opportunities work → Weather data sources →

Forecast generated

Aug 18, 2026, 7:12 AM UTC

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