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Rule Northern Lights

Valdez - Northern Lights - Alaska

Valdez, Alaska, United States

Northern Lights photography conditions - combines aurora activity levels with clear skies and proper darkness for optimal viewing.

Currently

Real-time conditions
Kp IndexKp 3 (Quiet)
Sun Elevation32.7° (Daylight)
Cloud Cover94%

Upcoming Opportunities

When all conditions match, PhotoWeather marks an opportunity window.

Times shown in America/Anchorage
aurora weather icon
Next opportunity
Good Chance of Aurora
Valdez
Thu, Apr 30 · 24:00–04:00 · 4h window
Low confidence
22%
🌌Aurora Quality63.2-65.8%
Kp Index: Kp 5 (Minor Storm)
Sun Elevation: -13.5° (Astronomical twilight)
Cloud Cover: 5%
aurora weather icon
Fair Chance of Aurora at Dawn
Valdez
Thu, Apr 30 · 04:00–05:00
🌌Aurora Quality:55.3%
Low

What this forecast looks for

Plain-language explanation from the rule

This forecast answers the question every aurora photographer asks: "Can I actually see the aurora tonight?" Unlike simple Kp forecasts, we combine NOAA's OVATION aurora model with real-time cloud cover, visibility, and darkness data to predict true viewing conditions.

Alaska's interior sits directly under the auroral oval, making it one of the world's most reliable aurora viewing destinations. Fairbanks, in particular, experiences aurora activity on roughly 240 nights per year—more than almost anywhere else accessible by road.

What makes Alaska special for aurora photography:

  • Auroral oval position - Fairbanks sits at the ideal 65°N latitude, directly under the oval's typical position
  • Extreme darkness - Winter nights can last 18+ hours, maximizing viewing opportunities
  • Dramatic foregrounds - Snow-covered mountains, frozen rivers, and boreal forests create stunning compositions
  • Research heritage - The University of Alaska Fairbanks Geophysical Institute provides world-class aurora forecasting

Best conditions typically occur September through March, with peak activity during the equinox months. The interior's continental climate means clearer skies than coastal areas, though temperatures can plunge well below -30°C. Dress accordingly and keep camera batteries warm.

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72-hour requirements breakdown

What passed or failed, hour by hour
0matching hours in the next 95 hours
AND logic: all conditions required
Meets requirement
Misses requirement
Time
America/Anchorage
Aurora Quality
≥ 50.0%
Solar Elevation
≤ -8.0°
Aurora Activity
≥ 50.0%
Total Cloud Coverage
≤ 30.0%
Visibility
≥ 8000.0m
Mon, Apr 20
11:000%32°15%97%261m
12:000%37°15%93%390m
13:000%40°11%76%2358m
14:000%41°11%94%3188m
15:000%39°11%97%681m
16:000%35°20%95%284m
17:000%29°20%100%369m
18:000%23°21%100%237m
19:000%16°37%97%1492m
20:000%8.6°39%88%1811m
21:000%1.8°38%91%330m
22:000%-4.7°29%95%222m
23:000%-10°23%90%1459m
Tue, Apr 21
24:000%-14°23%87%2081m
01:000%-16°21%63%4519m
02:000%-17°29%72%10793m
03:000%-15°34%75%8955m
04:000%-12°59%80%4950m
05:000%-7.3°61%95%219m
06:000%-1.2°60%94%192m
07:000%5.4°34%92%219m
08:000%12°32%93%228m
09:000%20°27%93%291m
10:000%27°14%93%287m
11:000%33°14%94%592m
12:000%37°14%93%871m
13:000%40°0%92%1448m
14:000%41°0%83%3007m
15:000%39°0%77%5611m
16:000%35°11%78%8536m
17:000%30°11%77%3305m
18:000%23°11%73%2829m
19:000%16°0%70%3452m
20:000%8.8°0%73%3552m
21:000%2.1°0%90%9807m
22:000%-4.4°0%100%9989m
23:000%-9.8°0%100%3647m
Wed, Apr 22
24:000%-14°0%100%2078m
01:000%-16°0%100%3270m
02:000%-17°0%96%2011m
03:000%-15°0%83%2498m
04:000%-12°0%74%3683m
05:000%-7°0%100%7728m
06:000%-0.83°0%100%10787m
07:000%5.7°0%100%16929m
08:000%13°0%100%20421m
09:000%20°0%100%9489m
10:000%27°0%100%17385m
11:000%33°0%100%18081m
12:000%38°0%100%2587m
13:000%41°0%100%284m
14:000%41°0%98%225m
15:000%39°0%100%155m
16:000%35°0%100%152m
17:000%30°0%99%131m
18:000%23°0%100%122m
19:000%16°0%99%108m
20:000%9.1°0%100%102m
21:000%2.4°0%100%96m
22:000%-4.1°0%100%86m
23:000%-9.5°0%100%78m
Thu, Apr 23
24:000%-13°0%100%73m
01:000%-16°0%100%69m
02:000%-16°0%100%64m
03:000%-15°0%100%67m
04:000%-11°0%100%71m
05:000%-6.7°0%100%79m
06:000%-0.39°0%100%87m
07:000%0%100%80m
08:000%13°0%100%105m
09:000%20°0%100%81m
10:000%27°0%100%92m
11:000%33°0%100%87m
12:000%38°0%100%73m
13:000%41°0%100%66m
14:000%42°0%100%55m
15:000%40°0%100%48m
16:000%36°15%100%45m
17:000%30°15%100%42m
18:000%24°15%100%39m
19:000%17°15%100%36m
20:000%9.4°15%100%37m
21:000%2.6°15%100%37m
22:000%-3.9°15%100%38m
23:000%-9.2°15%100%37m
Fri, Apr 24
24:000%-13°15%100%36m
01:000%-15°15%100%35m
02:000%-16°15%100%31m
03:000%-14°15%100%26m
04:000%-11°15%100%22m
05:000%-6.3°15%100%23m
06:000%0.07°15%100%25m
07:000%6.4°15%100%26m
08:000%13°15%100%27m
09:000%21°15%100%28m
How to read: colored cells show whether each predicate requirement is met; highlighted rows mean the full rule matched (an opportunity).

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