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Rule Northern Lights

Girdwood - Northern Lights - Alaska

Girdwood, Alaska, United States

Northern Lights photography conditions - combines aurora activity levels with clear skies and proper darkness for optimal viewing.

Currently

Real-time conditions
Kp IndexKp 3 (Quiet)
Sun Elevation31.7° (Daylight)
Cloud Cover37%

Upcoming Opportunities

When all conditions match, PhotoWeather marks an opportunity window.

Times shown in America/Anchorage
aurora weather icon
Next opportunity
Good Chance of Aurora
Girdwood
Wed, Apr 29 · 24:00–04:00 · 4h window
Low confidence
19%
🌌Aurora Quality52.9-62.1%
Kp Index: Kp 5 (Minor Storm)
Sun Elevation: -13.3° (Astronomical twilight)
Cloud Cover: 10%
aurora weather icon
Fair Chance of Aurora at Dawn
Girdwood
Wed, Apr 29 · 04:00–05:00
🌌Aurora Quality:59.3%
Low
aurora weather icon
Good Chance of Aurora
Girdwood
Thu, Apr 30 · 24:00–04:00
🌌Aurora Quality:52-65.3%
Low
aurora weather icon
Fair Chance of Aurora at Dawn
Girdwood
Thu, Apr 30 · 04:00–05:00
🌌Aurora Quality:58.2%
Low

What this forecast looks for

Plain-language explanation from the rule

This forecast answers the question every aurora photographer asks: "Can I actually see the aurora tonight?" Unlike simple Kp forecasts, we combine NOAA's OVATION aurora model with real-time cloud cover, visibility, and darkness data to predict true viewing conditions.

Alaska's interior sits directly under the auroral oval, making it one of the world's most reliable aurora viewing destinations. Fairbanks, in particular, experiences aurora activity on roughly 240 nights per year—more than almost anywhere else accessible by road.

What makes Alaska special for aurora photography:

  • Auroral oval position - Fairbanks sits at the ideal 65°N latitude, directly under the oval's typical position
  • Extreme darkness - Winter nights can last 18+ hours, maximizing viewing opportunities
  • Dramatic foregrounds - Snow-covered mountains, frozen rivers, and boreal forests create stunning compositions
  • Research heritage - The University of Alaska Fairbanks Geophysical Institute provides world-class aurora forecasting

Best conditions typically occur September through March, with peak activity during the equinox months. The interior's continental climate means clearer skies than coastal areas, though temperatures can plunge well below -30°C. Dress accordingly and keep camera batteries warm.

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72-hour requirements breakdown

What passed or failed, hour by hour
2matching hours in the next 95 hoursJump to next match
AND logic: all conditions required
Meets requirement
Misses requirement
Time
America/Anchorage
Aurora Quality
≥ 50.0%
Solar Elevation
≤ -8.0°
Aurora Activity
≥ 50.0%
Total Cloud Coverage
≤ 30.0%
Visibility
≥ 8000.0m
Mon, Apr 20
11:000%31°15%100%20302m
12:000%36°15%100%2685m
13:000%40°0%100%611m
14:000%41°11%100%455m
15:000%39°11%100%299m
16:000%36°20%100%233m
17:000%31°20%100%822m
18:000%24°20%96%10066m
19:000%17°35%68%21568m
20:000%9.9°37%53%12167m
21:000%36%20%21816m
22:000%-3.7°27%20%21093m
23:0016%-9.3°20%35%20984m
Tue, Apr 21
24:0039%-14°21%6.1%24135m
01:0043%-16°20%2.1%24135m
02:0046%-17°28%1%24134m
03:0049%-16°33%0.9%24135m
04:0070%-13°58%0.1%24135m
05:0059%-8.5°60%0.1%24134m
06:000%-2.6°59%1.8%24134m
07:000%4.1°33%2%24134m
08:000%11°31%4.9%24134m
09:000%18°27%5%24135m
10:000%25°14%5%24134m
11:000%32°14%37%24134m
12:000%37°14%17%24134m
13:000%40°0%70%24134m
14:000%41°0%72%24134m
15:000%40°0%40%24135m
16:000%36°11%68%24134m
17:000%31°11%37%24135m
18:000%24°11%40%24134m
19:000%17°0%54%24135m
20:000%10°0%79%24134m
21:000%3.2°0%69%24135m
22:000%-3.4°0%99%24134m
23:000%-9°0%66%24134m
Wed, Apr 22
24:000%-13°0%44%24134m
01:000%-16°0%33%24135m
02:000%-17°0%55%24134m
03:000%-16°0%91%24134m
04:000%-13°0%100%24135m
05:000%-8.1°0%100%5301m
06:000%-2.3°0%100%797m
07:000%4.4°0%100%884m
08:000%11°0%100%1430m
09:000%19°0%100%13214m
10:000%26°0%100%2063m
11:000%32°0%100%3155m
12:000%37°0%100%2584m
13:000%40°0%99%1572m
14:000%42°0%100%962m
15:000%40°0%100%716m
16:000%36°0%100%1483m
17:000%31°0%100%9985m
18:000%25°0%100%21655m
19:000%18°0%100%21325m
20:000%10°0%100%20154m
21:000%3.5°0%100%11527m
22:000%-3.1°0%100%1835m
23:000%-8.7°0%100%1122m
Thu, Apr 23
24:000%-13°0%100%918m
01:000%-16°0%100%1199m
02:000%-16°0%100%895m
03:000%-15°0%100%754m
04:000%-12°0%100%280m
05:000%-7.8°0%100%117m
06:000%-1.9°0%100%95m
07:000%4.7°0%100%100m
08:000%12°0%100%100m
09:000%19°0%100%180m
10:000%26°0%100%238m
11:000%32°0%100%144m
12:000%37°0%100%85m
13:000%41°0%100%52m
14:000%42°0%100%53m
15:000%40°0%100%56m
16:000%37°15%100%73m
17:000%31°15%100%77m
18:000%25°15%100%82m
19:000%18°15%100%86m
20:000%11°15%100%111m
21:000%3.8°15%100%137m
22:000%-2.8°15%100%162m
23:000%-8.4°15%100%158m
Fri, Apr 24
24:000%-13°15%100%155m
01:000%-15°15%100%151m
02:000%-16°15%95%197m
03:000%-15°15%90%242m
04:000%-12°15%85%287m
05:000%-7.5°15%89%214m
06:000%-1.6°15%93%142m
07:000%15%97%69m
08:000%12°15%97%75m
09:000%19°15%98%81m
How to read: colored cells show whether each predicate requirement is met; highlighted rows mean the full rule matched (an opportunity).

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