Rule Morning Frost

Morning Frost Forecast for Aysgarth Falls, Yorkshire Dales

Aysgarth, England, United Kingdom

The River Ure crosses three broad limestone cascades through wooded Wensleydale, with stepped water and dark rock shelves.

Currently

Real-time conditions

Frost Probability

Soil Temperature12.7°C

Dew Point8.4°C (moderate dew point)

Wind Speed0.5m/s (calm conditions)

Cloud Cover38%

Upcoming Opportunities

When all conditions match, PhotoWeather marks an opportunity window.

Times shown in Europe/London

No opportunities in the next 14 days

See which requirements block the most forecast hours below.

Most common blockers (85-hour forecast)

Frost Probability100% of hours
Time Window88% of hours
Wind Speed64% of hours

How this forecast is evaluated

See which weather signals PhotoWeather uses to identify Morning Frost conditions across Yorkshire Dales. The requirements and hourly values below show how those signals apply at Aysgarth Falls.

Explore Morning Frost conditions across Yorkshire Dales →

Recorded match history

Completed PhotoWeather forecast matches recorded for this exact rule at Aysgarth Falls during the last 365 days.

Last 30 days

recorded matching windows

Last 90 days

recorded matching windows

Last 365 days

recorded matching windows

These figures use completed PhotoWeather MatchEvent records from the previous 365 days only. They describe recorded forecast matches, not observations, climatological probability, or a guarantee of future conditions.

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85-hour requirements breakdown

When available, the detailed table below covers only the stated 85-hour horizon (typically 72–168 hours, depending on available hourly data). Opportunity records above span the next 14 days, so this table does not explain that entire 14-day period.

What passed or failed, hour by hour

0matching hours in the next 85 hours

AND logic: all conditions required

Meets requirement

Misses requirement

Time Europe/London	Time Window Sunrise -45m to +90m	Frost Probability ≥ 60.0%	Wind Speed ≤ 1.5m/s
Sat, Aug 22
06:00	✓	0%	0.76m/s
07:00	✓	0%	0.59m/s
08:00	✕	0%	0.4m/s
09:00	✕	0%	0.51m/s
10:00	✕	0%	0.43m/s
11:00	✕	0%	0.49m/s
12:00	✕	0%	1m/s
13:00	✕	0%	0.87m/s
14:00	✕	0%	0.64m/s
15:00	✕	0%	2.7m/s
16:00	✕	0%	3.3m/s
17:00	✕	0%	3m/s
18:00	✕	0%	2.4m/s
19:00	✕	0%	1.8m/s
20:00	✕	0%	0.59m/s
21:00	✕	0%	0.5m/s
22:00	✕	0%	0.29m/s
23:00	✕	0%	0.55m/s
Sun, Aug 23
24:00	✕	0%	0.48m/s
01:00	✕	0%	0.73m/s
02:00	✕	0%	1m/s
03:00	✕	0%	1.4m/s
04:00	✕	0%	1.5m/s
05:00	✓	0%	1.5m/s
06:00	✓	0%	1.5m/s
07:00	✓	0%	1.5m/s
08:00	✕	0%	1.2m/s
09:00	✕	0%	0.96m/s
10:00	✕	0%	0.32m/s
11:00	✕	0%	0.58m/s
12:00	✕	0%	1.5m/s
13:00	✕	0%	1.8m/s
14:00	✕	0%	1.9m/s
15:00	✕	0%	2.1m/s
16:00	✕	0%	2.2m/s
17:00	✕	0%	2.2m/s
18:00	✕	0%	2.6m/s
19:00	✕	0%	3.1m/s
20:00	✕	0%	3.4m/s
21:00	✕	0%	2.6m/s
22:00	✕	0%	1.6m/s
23:00	✕	0%	1.3m/s
Mon, Aug 24
24:00	✕	0%	1.1m/s
01:00	✕	0%	0.87m/s
02:00	✕	0%	1.1m/s
03:00	✕	0%	1.1m/s
04:00	✕	0%	0.94m/s
05:00	✓	0%	0.89m/s
06:00	✓	0%	0.85m/s
07:00	✓	0%	0.94m/s
08:00	✕	0%	1.4m/s
09:00	✕	0%	2.1m/s
10:00	✕	0%	3m/s
11:00	✕	0%	4.4m/s
12:00	✕	0%	4.8m/s
13:00	✕	0%	5m/s
14:00	✕	0%	5.3m/s
15:00	✕	0%	5.4m/s
16:00	✕	0%	6m/s
17:00	✕	0%	6.5m/s
18:00	✕	0%	6.4m/s
19:00	✕	0%	5.9m/s
20:00	✕	0%	5.1m/s
21:00	✕	0%	3.9m/s
22:00	✕	0%	3.7m/s
23:00	✕	0%	3.3m/s
Tue, Aug 25
24:00	✕	0%	3.5m/s
01:00	✕	0%	3.3m/s
02:00	✕	0%	4m/s
03:00	✕	0%	4.8m/s
04:00	✕	0%	5.5m/s
05:00	✓	0%	5.8m/s
06:00	✓	0%	6m/s
07:00	✓	0%	6.3m/s
08:00	✕	0%	6.5m/s
09:00	✕	0%	6.7m/s
10:00	✕	0%	6.9m/s
11:00	✕	0%	6.6m/s
12:00	✕	0%	6.4m/s
13:00	✕	0%	6.2m/s
14:00	✕	0%	5.7m/s
15:00	✕	0%	5.2m/s
16:00	✕	0%	4.7m/s
17:00	✕	0%	4.2m/s
18:00	✕	0%	3.6m/s

How to read: colored cells show whether each predicate requirement is met; highlighted rows mean the full rule matched (an opportunity).

What does Frost Probability mean?

Inputs that drive the score

This derived score summarizes multiple raw weather signals. The table below shows the supporting inputs hour by hour, so you can see what's pushing the score up or down.

Time Europe/London	Dew Point °C	Surface Temperature °C	Temperature °C	Time Window	Total Cloud Coverage %	Vapor Pressure Deficit kPa
Sat, Aug 22 Sunrise 05:57 Sunset 20:22
21:00 ☾	8.4°C	13°C	11°C	-	38%	0.21kPa
22:00 ☾	7.6°C	12°C	9.7°C	-	35%	0.16kPa
23:00 ☾	7.2°C	12°C	9.1°C	-	36%	0.14kPa
Sun, Aug 23 Sunrise 05:57 Sunset 20:22
24:00 ☾	7.1°C	12°C	9°C	-	36%	0.13kPa
01:00 ☾	7°C	12°C	8.7°C	-	24%	0.13kPa
02:00 ☾	6.7°C	12°C	8.3°C	-	15%	0.11kPa
03:00 ☾	6.6°C	11°C	8.2°C	-	5%	0.11kPa
04:00 ☾	6.2°C	11°C	7.7°C	-	10%	0.1kPa
05:00 ☾	5.9°C	11°C	7.6°C	-	5%	0.11kPa
06:00	5.6°C	11°C	7.4°C	-	5%	0.12kPa
07:00	6.3°C	10°C	8.4°C	-	6%	0.14kPa
08:00	7.6°C	10°C	11°C	-	10%	0.25kPa
09:00	8°C	11°C	13°C	-	5%	0.39kPa
10:00	7.9°C	11°C	14°C	-	5%	0.58kPa
11:00	7.1°C	12°C	16°C	-	5%	0.79kPa
12:00	6.3°C	12°C	17°C	-	5%	0.97kPa
13:00	5.9°C	13°C	18°C	-	5%	1.1kPa
14:00	5.7°C	13°C	18°C	-	5%	1.2kPa
15:00	5.6°C	14°C	18°C	-	23%	1.2kPa
16:00	5.6°C	14°C	19°C	-	16%	1.2kPa
17:00	5.6°C	14°C	18°C	-	29%	1.2kPa
18:00	5.9°C	14°C	18°C	-	46%	1.1kPa
19:00	7.2°C	15°C	16°C	-	53%	0.82kPa
20:00	6.2°C	14°C	13°C	-	86%	0.59kPa
21:00 ☾	5.6°C	14°C	11°C	-	100%	0.43kPa
22:00 ☾	5.9°C	14°C	10°C	-	100%	0.3kPa
23:00 ☾	6.1°C	14°C	9.5°C	-	89%	0.25kPa
Mon, Aug 24 Sunrise 05:59 Sunset 20:20
24:00 ☾	5.9°C	13°C	8.9°C	-	45%	0.21kPa
01:00 ☾	5.5°C	13°C	8.5°C	-	30%	0.2kPa
02:00 ☾	5.5°C	13°C	8.4°C	-	7%	0.2kPa
03:00 ☾	5.3°C	12°C	8°C	-	5%	0.18kPa
04:00 ☾	5.3°C	12°C	7.8°C	-	13%	0.17kPa
05:00 ☾	5.4°C	12°C	7.7°C	-	50%	0.15kPa
06:00 ☾	5.6°C	11°C	7.6°C	-	76%	0.14kPa
07:00	6.7°C	11°C	8.8°C	-	52%	0.15kPa
08:00	8°C	11°C	11°C	-	76%	0.27kPa
09:00	8.5°C	11°C	13°C	-	33%	0.41kPa
10:00	8.3°C	12°C	15°C	-	20%	0.6kPa
11:00	7.4°C	12°C	16°C	-	5%	0.78kPa
12:00	6.8°C	12°C	17°C	-	5%	0.93kPa
13:00	6.4°C	13°C	18°C	-	5%	1.1kPa
14:00	6.5°C	13°C	19°C	-	5%	1.2kPa
15:00	6.7°C	14°C	19°C	-	22%	1.2kPa
16:00	6.9°C	14°C	19°C	-	93%	1.2kPa
17:00	7.3°C	14°C	18°C	-	100%	1.1kPa
18:00	8°C	14°C	17°C	-	100%	0.86kPa
19:00	8.2°C	14°C	15°C	-	100%	0.63kPa
20:00	8.7°C	14°C	13°C	-	100%	0.39kPa
21:00 ☾	9.3°C	14°C	11°C	-	100%	0.15kPa
22:00 ☾	9.8°C	14°C	10°C	-	52%	0.05kPa
23:00 ☾	9.8°C	14°C	10°C	-	76%	0.02kPa
Tue, Aug 25 Sunrise 06:01 Sunset 20:18
24:00 ☾	10°C	13°C	10°C	-	100%	0.01kPa
01:00 ☾	11°C	13°C	11°C	-	100%	0.03kPa
02:00 ☾	11°C	13°C	12°C	-	97%	0.11kPa
03:00 ☾	11°C	13°C	13°C	-	95%	0.2kPa
04:00 ☾	11°C	12°C	14°C	-	92%	0.31kPa
05:00 ☾	11°C	13°C	15°C	-	67%	0.48kPa
06:00 ☾	10°C	13°C	17°C	-	41%	0.68kPa
07:00	9.3°C	13°C	18°C	-	16%	0.92kPa
08:00	9.6°C	14°C	18°C	-	25%	0.89kPa
09:00	9.9°C	14°C	18°C	-	34%	0.86kPa
10:00	10°C	14°C	18°C	-	44%	0.83kPa
11:00	11°C	14°C	17°C	-	62%	0.65kPa
12:00	11°C	14°C	16°C	-	81%	0.49kPa
13:00	11°C	14°C	15°C	-	100%	0.35kPa
14:00	12°C	14°C	14°C	-	100%	0.24kPa
15:00	12°C	14°C	14°C	-	100%	0.13kPa
16:00	13°C	14°C	13°C	-	100%	0.03kPa
17:00	13°C	14°C	13°C	-	100%	0.03kPa
18:00	13°C	14°C	13°C	-	100%	0.03kPa
19:00	13°C	14°C	13°C	-	100%	0.03kPa
20:00	13°C	14°C	13°C	-	100%	0.03kPa

How to read: these inputs help produce the derived score; they are not requirements by themselves.

How this forecast is made

Opportunities are threshold-based signals: PhotoWeather checks whether forecast conditions match the rules for a photography scenario. They are planning guidance, not guarantees. Forecasts can change as new model runs arrive, and confidence generally decreases farther into the forecast horizon, so recheck conditions before travelling.

The weather forecast foundation comes through Open-Meteo , which aggregates models from weather agencies. PhotoWeather applies condition-specific thresholds and derived calculations; not every condition uses every model or data input.

How opportunities work → Weather data sources →

Forecast generated

Aug 22, 2026, 7:11 PM UTC

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