Rule Fire Sky

Fire Sky Forecast for Arches, US Southwest

Moab, Utah, United States

Arches pairs freestanding sandstone arches with fins, balanced rocks and distant La Sal peaks, ideal for framed desert views and night-sky silhouettes.

Currently

Real-time conditions

Fiery Red Sky Potential

Low Cloud Cover0%

Mid Cloud Cover5%

High Cloud Cover100%

Aerosol Optical Depth0.1

Sun Elevation40.6° (Daylight)

Upcoming Opportunities

When all conditions match, PhotoWeather marks an opportunity window.

Times shown in America/Denver

Next opportunity

Excellent Fiery Red Sky at Sunrise

Arches

Tomorrow · 07:00–07:28 · 1h window

Medium confidence

63%

🔥Fiery Red Sky Potential77.2%

Low Cloud Cover: 0%

Mid Cloud Cover: 82%

High Cloud Cover: 100%

Aerosol Optical Depth: 0.0

Excellent Fiery Red Sky at Sunrise

Arches

Thu, Sep 10 · 07:00–07:29

🔥Fiery Red Sky Potential:73.8%

Medium

How this forecast is evaluated

See which weather signals PhotoWeather uses to identify Fire Sky conditions across US Southwest. The requirements and hourly values below show how those signals apply at Arches.

Explore Fire Sky conditions across US Southwest →

Recorded match history

Completed PhotoWeather forecast matches recorded for this exact rule at Arches during the last 365 days.

Last 30 days

recorded matching windows · 70% average confidence

Last 90 days

recorded matching windows · 72% average confidence

Last 365 days

recorded matching windows · 72% average confidence

Most frequent recorded start hour

06:00 local time, shared by 31 of 45 matches recorded in the last 365 days.

These figures use completed PhotoWeather MatchEvent records from the previous 365 days only. They describe recorded forecast matches, not observations, climatological probability, or a guarantee of future conditions.

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88-hour requirements breakdown

When available, the detailed table below covers only the stated 88-hour horizon (typically 72–168 hours, depending on available hourly data). Opportunity records above span the next 14 days, so this table does not explain that entire 14-day period.

What passed or failed, hour by hour

2matching hours in the next 88 hoursJump to next match

AND logic: all conditions required

Meets requirement

Misses requirement

Time America/Denver	Golden Hour Any	Fiery Red Sky Potential ≥ 65.0%	Precipitation Chance ≤ 15.0%	Visibility ≥ 8000.0m
Sun, Sep 6
23:00	✕	7.1%	26%	24134m
Mon, Sep 7
24:00	✕	6.4%	39%	24135m
01:00	✕	25%	1.6%	24134m
02:00	✕	30%	3.3%	24135m
03:00	✕	31%	4.9%	24135m
04:00	✕	32%	3.3%	24135m
05:00	✕	31%	1.6%	24135m
06:00	✓	32%	0%	24135m
07:00	✓	64%	15%	24134m
08:00	✕	35%	7.4%	24134m
09:00	✕	31%	0%	24134m
10:00	✕	31%	0%	24134m
11:00	✕	29%	0%	24134m
12:00	✕	29%	0%	24135m
13:00	✕	29%	0%	24135m
14:00	✕	29%	0%	24135m
15:00	✕	29%	0%	24135m
16:00	✕	33%	0%	24134m
17:00	✕	32%	0%	24135m
18:00	✕	31%	0%	24135m
19:00	✓	29%	0%	24135m
20:00	✕	83%	0%	24135m
21:00	✕	26%	0%	24135m
22:00	✕	28%	0%	24135m
23:00	✕	27%	0%	24134m
Tue, Sep 8
24:00	✕	29%	0%	24134m
01:00	✕	29%	0%	24135m
02:00	✕	31%	0%	24135m
03:00	✕	31%	0%	24135m
04:00	✕	29%	0%	24135m
05:00	✕	29%	0%	24135m
06:00	✓	30%	0%	24135m
07:00	✓	77%	0%	24134m
08:00	✕	27%	0%	24134m
09:00	✕	14%	0%	24135m
10:00	✕	6.4%	0%	24135m
11:00	✕	6.1%	0%	24135m
12:00	✕	6.7%	0%	24134m
13:00	✕	7.5%	0%	24134m
14:00	✕	29%	0%	24135m
15:00	✕	15%	0%	24134m
16:00	✕	7.5%	0%	24134m
17:00	✕	7.8%	0%	24135m
18:00	✕	12%	0%	24135m
19:00	✓	10%	0%	24134m
20:00	✕	34%	0%	24134m
21:00	✕	17%	0%	24134m
22:00	✕	20%	0%	24135m
23:00	✕	19%	0%	24135m
Wed, Sep 9
24:00	✕	18%	0%	24135m
01:00	✕	10%	0%	24134m
02:00	✕	10%	0%	24134m
03:00	✕	9.7%	0%	24134m
04:00	✕	9.9%	0%	24134m
05:00	✕	12%	0%	24134m
06:00	✓	12%	0%	24134m
07:00	✓	28%	0%	24135m
08:00	✕	29%	0%	24134m
09:00	✕	30%	0%	24135m
10:00	✕	28%	0%	24135m
11:00	✕	33%	0%	24134m
12:00	✕	29%	0%	24134m
13:00	✕	31%	0%	24135m
14:00	✕	31%	0%	24135m
15:00	✕	31%	0%	24134m
16:00	✕	30%	0%	24135m
17:00	✕	31%	0%	24135m
18:00	✕	32%	0%	24135m
19:00	✓	32%	0%	24134m
20:00	✕	80%	0%	24135m
21:00	✕	14%	0%	24134m
22:00	✕	13%	0%	24135m
23:00	✕	15%	0%	24134m
Thu, Sep 10
24:00	✕	34%	0%	24134m
01:00	✕	0%	0%	24134m
02:00	✕	0%	0%	24135m
03:00	✕	0%	0%	24135m
04:00	✕	0%	0%	24135m
05:00	✕	0%	0%	24135m
06:00	✓	0%	0%	24135m
07:00	✓	74%	0%	24135m
08:00	✕	0%	0%	24135m
09:00	✕	0%	0%	24135m
10:00	✕	0%	0%	24135m
11:00	✕	0%	0%	24135m
12:00	✕	0%	0%	24135m
13:00	✕	0%	1.6%	24135m
14:00	✕	0%	3.3%	24135m

How to read: colored cells show whether each predicate requirement is met; highlighted rows mean the full rule matched (an opportunity).

What does Fiery Red Sky Potential mean?

Inputs that drive the score

This derived score summarizes multiple raw weather signals. The table below shows the supporting inputs hour by hour, so you can see what's pushing the score up or down.

Time America/Denver	Aerosol Optical Depth (550nm)	Clear Sky Probability (Ensemble) %	Cloud Cover Uncertainty (Ensemble) %	Dust AOD (550nm)	Golden Hour	High Clouds %	Low Clouds %	Mid-Level Clouds %	RH @ 700 hPa %	Smoke AOD (550nm)	Solar Elevation °	Sunshine Duration seconds
Mon, Sep 7 Sunrise 06:53 Sunset 19:38
16:00	0.07	12%	27%	0.001	-	100%	0%	5%	47%	0.009	41°	3600seconds
17:00	0.06	12%	27%	0.001	-	100%	0%	4%	45%	0.008	30°	3600seconds
18:00 ☾	0.06	11%	26%	0.001	-	100%	0%	2%	44%	0.008	18°	3600seconds
19:00 ☾	0.06	9%	25%	0.001	-	100%	0%	5%	44%	0.007	6.8°	0seconds
20:00 ☾	0.05	7%	24%	0.001	-	100%	0%	3%	45%	0.007	-4.9°	0seconds
21:00 ☾	0.05	5%	23%	0.001	-	100%	0%	1%	45%	0.006	-16°	0seconds
22:00 ☾	0.05	4%	21%	0.001	-	100%	0%	5%	44%	0.006	-27°	0seconds
23:00 ☾	0.05	2%	18%	0.001	-	100%	0%	53%	44%	0.006	-36°	0seconds
Tue, Sep 8 Sunrise 06:53 Sunset 19:36
24:00 ☾	0.05	1%	16%	0.001	-	100%	0%	13%	43%	0.006	-42°	0seconds
01:00 ☾	0.04	2%	18%	0.001	-	100%	0%	5%	44%	0.005	-46°	0seconds
02:00 ☾	0.04	3%	19%	0.001	-	100%	0%	2%	46%	0.005	-45°	0seconds
03:00 ☾	0.04	4%	21%	0.001	-	100%	0%	4%	47%	0.005	-40°	0seconds
04:00 ☾	0.04	4%	21%	0.001	-	100%	0%	0%	43%	0.005	-32°	0seconds
05:00 ☾	0.03	4%	21%	0.001	-	100%	0%	4%	38%	0.005	-22°	0seconds
06:00 ☾	0.03	4%	21%	0.001	-	100%	0%	27%	33%	0.005	-11°	0seconds
07:00	0.03	13%	26%	0.001	-	100%	0%	82%	33%	0.005	0.81°	0seconds
08:00	0.03	23%	30%	0.001	-	21%	0%	8%	32%	0.005	12°	0seconds
09:00	0.03	32%	35%	0.001	-	55%	0%	0%	32%	0.005	24°	0seconds
10:00	0.03	37%	32%	0.001	-	17%	0%	0%	36%	0.005	35°	3600seconds
11:00	0.03	43%	29%	0.001	-	1%	0%	0%	40%	0.005	45°	3600seconds
12:00	0.04	48%	26%	0.001	-	4%	0%	0%	44%	0.005	53°	3600seconds
13:00	0.04	59%	26%	0.001	-	12%	0%	0%	41%	0.005	57°	3600seconds
14:00	0.04	69%	25%	0.001	-	8%	0%	0%	38%	0.005	55°	3600seconds
15:00	0.04	80%	25%	0.001	-	7%	0%	0%	36%	0.006	49°	3600seconds
16:00	0.04	79%	25%	0.001	-	5%	0%	0%	34%	0.006	40°	3600seconds
17:00	0.03	79%	24%	0.001	-	5%	0%	0%	32%	0.006	30°	3600seconds
18:00 ☾	0.03	78%	24%	0.001	-	6%	0%	0%	30%	0.005	18°	3600seconds
19:00 ☾	-	78%	25%	-	-	6%	0%	0%	29%	-	6.5°	3600seconds
20:00 ☾	-	77%	27%	-	-	11%	0%	0%	28%	-	-5.2°	0seconds
21:00 ☾	-	77%	28%	-	-	15%	0%	0%	26%	-	-16°	0seconds
22:00 ☾	-	77%	26%	-	-	12%	0%	0%	26%	-	-27°	0seconds
23:00 ☾	-	77%	25%	-	-	5%	0%	0%	26%	-	-36°	0seconds
Wed, Sep 9 Sunrise 06:54 Sunset 19:35
24:00 ☾	-	77%	23%	-	-	21%	0%	0%	26%	-	-43°	0seconds
01:00 ☾	-	81%	22%	-	-	6%	0%	0%	27%	-	-46°	0seconds
02:00 ☾	-	84%	20%	-	-	4%	0%	0%	28%	-	-45°	0seconds
03:00 ☾	-	88%	19%	-	-	10%	0%	0%	29%	-	-40°	0seconds
04:00 ☾	-	90%	17%	-	-	5%	0%	0%	29%	-	-32°	0seconds
05:00 ☾	-	91%	14%	-	-	5%	0%	0%	30%	-	-22°	0seconds
06:00 ☾	-	93%	12%	-	-	5%	0%	0%	30%	-	-11°	0seconds
07:00	-	92%	15%	-	-	5%	0%	0%	30%	-	0.66°	0seconds
08:00	-	91%	17%	-	-	14%	0%	0%	29%	-	12°	0seconds
09:00	-	90%	20%	-	-	20%	0%	0%	29%	-	24°	0seconds
10:00	-	87%	21%	-	-	40%	0%	0%	29%	-	35°	3600seconds
11:00	-	85%	22%	-	-	70%	0%	0%	29%	-	45°	3600seconds
12:00	-	82%	23%	-	-	82%	0%	0%	29%	-	52°	3600seconds
13:00	-	69%	28%	-	-	97%	0%	0%	28%	-	56°	3600seconds
14:00	-	56%	32%	-	-	100%	0%	0%	28%	-	55°	3600seconds
15:00	-	43%	37%	-	-	100%	0%	5%	27%	-	49°	3600seconds
16:00	-	39%	35%	-	-	100%	0%	5%	26%	-	40°	3600seconds
17:00	-	34%	34%	-	-	100%	0%	5%	25%	-	29°	3600seconds
18:00 ☾	-	30%	32%	-	-	93%	0%	1%	24%	-	18°	3600seconds
19:00 ☾	-	29%	34%	-	-	99%	0%	0%	24%	-	6.2°	0seconds
20:00 ☾	-	29%	36%	-	-	98%	0%	0%	24%	-	-5.5°	0seconds
21:00 ☾	-	28%	38%	-	-	72%	0%	0%	24%	-	-17°	0seconds
22:00 ☾	-	28%	36%	-	-	68%	0%	0%	24%	-	-27°	0seconds
23:00 ☾	-	29%	33%	-	-	8%	0%	0%	25%	-	-36°	0seconds
Thu, Sep 10 Sunrise 06:55 Sunset 19:33
24:00 ☾	-	29%	31%	-	-	5%	0%	0%	26%	-	-43°	0seconds
01:00 ☾	-	45%	30%	-	-	37%	0%	0%	26%	-	-46°	0seconds
02:00 ☾	-	60%	29%	-	-	68%	0%	0%	25%	-	-45°	0seconds
03:00 ☾	-	76%	28%	-	-	100%	0%	0%	25%	-	-40°	0seconds
04:00 ☾	-	76%	28%	-	-	68%	0%	2%	25%	-	-32°	1200seconds
05:00 ☾	-	75%	29%	-	-	37%	0%	3%	25%	-	-22°	2400seconds
06:00 ☾	-	75%	29%	-	-	5%	0%	5%	24%	-	-11°	3600seconds
07:00	-	69%	30%	-	-	5%	0%	32%	24%	-	0.51°	3600seconds
08:00	-	64%	31%	-	-	5%	0%	59%	24%	-	12°	3600seconds
09:00	-	58%	32%	-	-	5%	0%	86%	24%	-	23°	3600seconds
10:00	-	57%	30%	-	-	6%	0%	60%	25%	-	34°	3600seconds
11:00	-	57%	28%	-	-	7%	0%	34%	26%	-	44°	3600seconds
12:00	-	56%	26%	-	-	8%	0%	9%	27%	-	52°	3600seconds
13:00	-	54%	29%	-	-	13%	0%	7%	27%	-	56°	2400seconds
14:00	-	53%	31%	-	-	17%	0%	6%	27%	-	55°	1200seconds
15:00	-	51%	34%	-	-	22%	0%	5%	27%	-	49°	0seconds

How to read: these inputs help produce the derived score; they are not requirements by themselves.

How this forecast is made

Opportunities are threshold-based signals: PhotoWeather checks whether forecast conditions match the rules for a photography scenario. They are planning guidance, not guarantees. Forecasts can change as new model runs arrive, and confidence generally decreases farther into the forecast horizon, so recheck conditions before travelling.

The weather forecast foundation comes through Open-Meteo , which aggregates models from weather agencies. PhotoWeather applies condition-specific thresholds and derived calculations; not every condition uses every model or data input.

How opportunities work → Weather data sources →

Forecast generated

Sep 7, 2026, 9:52 PM UTC

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