Rule Storm Chaser

Storm Chaser Forecast for Kansas Flint Hills, US Great Plains

Wichita, Kansas, United States

The Kansas Flint Hills preserve one of North America’s largest remaining expanses of tallgrass prairie because shallow, chert-rich soils over limestone discouraged widespread ploughing, leaving rolling ridgelines largely open. Around Tallgrass Prairie National Preserve and Konza Prairie, limestone benches, lone trees, ranch fences, and black-to-green prescribed-burn patterns provide visible scale beneath spring supercells and broad summer anvils.

Currently

Real-time conditions

Storm Intensity

34%

CAPE1160

Lifted Index-3.8°C

Wind Gusts3.9m/s

Precipitation0.0mm

Upcoming Opportunities

When all conditions match, PhotoWeather marks an opportunity window.

Times shown in America/Chicago

Next opportunity

Weak Storm

Kansas Flint Hills

Tomorrow · 04:00–05:00 · 1h window

Medium confidence

46%

⛈️Storm Intensity41%

CAPE: 614

Lifted Index: -3.5°C

Wind Gusts: 11.1m/s

Precipitation: 0.0mm

Weak Storm at Sunset

Kansas Flint Hills

Tomorrow · 19:00–20:00

⛈️Storm Intensity:44%

Medium

Weak Storm

Kansas Flint Hills

Tomorrow · 22:00–23:00

⛈️Storm Intensity:41%

Medium

Weak Storm

Kansas Flint Hills

Tue, Aug 25 · 07:00–08:00

⛈️Storm Intensity:40%

Low

Weak Storm

Kansas Flint Hills

Tue, Aug 25 · 10:00–11:00

⛈️Storm Intensity:42%

Low

Weak Storm

Kansas Flint Hills

Tue, Aug 25 · 12:00–14:00

⛈️Storm Intensity:40-48%

Low

Weak Storm

Kansas Flint Hills

Tue, Aug 25 · 22:00–23:00

⛈️Storm Intensity:47.7%

Low

+13 more windows in the next 14 days

How this forecast is evaluated

See which weather signals PhotoWeather uses to identify Storm Chaser conditions across US Great Plains. The requirements and hourly values below show how those signals apply at Kansas Flint Hills.

Explore Storm Chaser conditions across US Great Plains →

Recorded match history

Completed PhotoWeather forecast matches recorded for this exact rule at Kansas Flint Hills during the last 365 days.

Last 30 days

recorded matching windows · 53% average confidence

Last 90 days

recorded matching windows · 54% average confidence

Last 365 days

recorded matching windows · 54% average confidence

Most frequent recorded start hour

19:00 local time, shared by 15 of 67 matches recorded in the last 365 days.

Most represented month

August, with 32 of 67 matches recorded in the last 365 days.

These figures use completed PhotoWeather MatchEvent records from the previous 365 days only. They describe recorded forecast matches, not observations, climatological probability, or a guarantee of future conditions.

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85-hour requirements breakdown

When available, the detailed table below covers only the stated 85-hour horizon (typically 72–168 hours, depending on available hourly data). Opportunity records above span the next 14 days, so this table does not explain that entire 14-day period.

What passed or failed, hour by hour

13matching hours in the next 85 hoursJump to next match

AND logic: all conditions required

Meets requirement

Misses requirement

Time America/Chicago	Storm Intensity ≥ 40.0%
Sat, Aug 22
24:00	44%
01:00	50%
02:00	28%
03:00	25%
04:00	31%
05:00	36%
06:00	30%
07:00	53%
08:00	34%
09:00	42%
10:00	51%
11:00	35%
12:00	42%
13:00	52%
14:00	37%
15:00	34%
16:00	37%
17:00	27%
18:00	27%
19:00	35%
20:00	20%
21:00	21%
22:00	31%
23:00	22%
Sun, Aug 23
24:00	23%
01:00	33%
02:00	25%
03:00	31%
04:00	41%
05:00	31%
06:00	31%
07:00	35%
08:00	24%
09:00	24%
10:00	34%
11:00	22%
12:00	27%
13:00	37%
14:00	24%
15:00	24%
16:00	33%
17:00	24%
18:00	26%
19:00	44%
20:00	27%
21:00	28%
22:00	41%
23:00	26%
Mon, Aug 24
24:00	29%
01:00	38%
02:00	25%
03:00	22%
04:00	30%
05:00	21%
06:00	0%
07:00	20%
08:00	0%
09:00	0%
10:00	24%
11:00	18%
12:00	16%
13:00	20%
14:00	16%
15:00	19%
16:00	27%
17:00	24%
18:00	25%
19:00	30%
20:00	26%
21:00	25%
22:00	35%
23:00	25%
Tue, Aug 25
24:00	22%
01:00	24%
02:00	22%
03:00	28%
04:00	34%
05:00	28%
06:00	28%
07:00	40%
08:00	38%
09:00	36%
10:00	42%
11:00	38%
12:00	40%

How to read: colored cells show whether each predicate requirement is met; highlighted rows mean the full rule matched (an opportunity).

What does Storm Intensity mean?

Inputs that drive the score

This derived score summarizes multiple raw weather signals. The table below shows the supporting inputs hour by hour, so you can see what's pushing the score up or down.

Time America/Chicago	Air Pressure hPa	CAPE J/kg	Convective Precip Fraction fraction	Lifted Index °C	Precipitation Chance %	Rainfall mm	Showers mm	Simulated Reflectivity dBZ	Total Precipitation mm	Visibility m	Wind Gusts m/s	Wind Shear 0-3 km m/s	Wind Shear 0-6 km m/s	Wind Speed m/s
Sat, Aug 22 Sunrise 06:51 Sunset 20:12
15:00	968hPa	1160J/kg	0fraction	-3.8°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24135m	3.9m/s	-	-	3.9m/s
16:00	968hPa	884J/kg	0fraction	-2.8°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24135m	3.4m/s	11m/s	22m/s	3.5m/s
17:00	967hPa	733J/kg	0fraction	-2.2°C	13%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24134m	3.5m/s	-	-	3.5m/s
18:00	967hPa	645J/kg	0fraction	-2.1°C	26%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24134m	3.9m/s	-	-	3.9m/s
19:00 ☾	966hPa	534J/kg	0fraction	-2.1°C	39%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24134m	5.2m/s	13m/s	20m/s	4.4m/s
20:00 ☾	966hPa	359J/kg	0fraction	-1.2°C	39%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24134m	8.1m/s	-	-	3.8m/s
21:00 ☾	967hPa	257J/kg	0fraction	-0.7°C	39%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24134m	9.1m/s	-	-	3.7m/s
22:00 ☾	968hPa	135J/kg	0fraction	-0.9°C	39%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24134m	9.2m/s	15m/s	23m/s	3.7m/s
23:00 ☾	969hPa	90J/kg	0fraction	-1.2°C	45%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24134m	9.9m/s	-	-	3.7m/s
Sun, Aug 23 Sunrise 06:52 Sunset 20:11
24:00 ☾	969hPa	164J/kg	0fraction	-1.8°C	50%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24135m	12m/s	-	-	5m/s
01:00 ☾	969hPa	321J/kg	0fraction	-1.7°C	56%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24135m	12m/s	13m/s	24m/s	5m/s
02:00 ☾	969hPa	465J/kg	0fraction	-2.1°C	54%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24135m	12m/s	-	-	5m/s
03:00 ☾	968hPa	591J/kg	0fraction	-3.5°C	52%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24134m	11m/s	-	-	4.5m/s
04:00 ☾	968hPa	614J/kg	0fraction	-3.5°C	50%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24134m	11m/s	11m/s	20m/s	4.7m/s
05:00 ☾	968hPa	672J/kg	0fraction	-3.8°C	46%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24134m	11m/s	-	-	4.4m/s
06:00 ☾	968hPa	659J/kg	0fraction	-3.3°C	42%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24135m	11m/s	-	-	3.9m/s
07:00	968hPa	457J/kg	0fraction	-3.3°C	38%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24135m	11m/s	17m/s	22m/s	4.3m/s
08:00	969hPa	301J/kg	0fraction	-2°C	28%	0mm	0mm	-16dBZ	0mm	24135m	10m/s	-	-	3.9m/s
09:00	969hPa	183J/kg	0fraction	-2.1°C	19%	0mm	0mm	-11dBZ	0mm	24134m	11m/s	-	-	5.2m/s
10:00	969hPa	181J/kg	0fraction	-2°C	9%	0mm	0mm	-7.2dBZ	0mm	24135m	9.2m/s	13m/s	16m/s	5.8m/s
11:00	969hPa	130J/kg	0.33fraction	-1.8°C	6%	0mm	0mm	-8dBZ	0mm	24135m	7.9m/s	-	-	5.7m/s
12:00	969hPa	133J/kg	0.67fraction	-2.2°C	3%	0mm	0mm	-8.8dBZ	0mm	24134m	7.6m/s	-	-	6m/s
13:00	967hPa	134J/kg	1fraction	-3.3°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-9.5dBZ	0mm	24135m	7.9m/s	16m/s	26m/s	4.9m/s
14:00	966hPa	64J/kg	0.67fraction	-1.5°C	6%	0mm	0mm	-4.7dBZ	0mm	24134m	8.1m/s	-	-	5.8m/s
15:00	966hPa	114J/kg	0.33fraction	-2.3°C	12%	0mm	0mm	0.1dBZ	0mm	24134m	8.1m/s	-	-	4.8m/s
16:00	966hPa	213J/kg	0fraction	-3.2°C	18%	0mm	0mm	4.9dBZ	0mm	24134m	6.3m/s	22m/s	37m/s	3.9m/s
17:00	965hPa	387J/kg	0fraction	-3.8°C	18%	0mm	0.33mm	-3.4dBZ	0.19mm	13233m	5.3m/s	-	-	3.5m/s
18:00	964hPa	480J/kg	0fraction	-2.6°C	17%	0mm	0mm	-12dBZ	0.25mm	24134m	6.8m/s	-	-	5.8m/s
19:00 ☾	963hPa	563J/kg	0fraction	-2.4°C	17%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0.25mm	24134m	9.7m/s	28m/s	26m/s	6.8m/s
20:00 ☾	963hPa	495J/kg	0fraction	-2.4°C	28%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24134m	13m/s	-	-	6.7m/s
21:00 ☾	963hPa	487J/kg	0fraction	-2.1°C	39%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24134m	14m/s	-	-	6.7m/s
22:00 ☾	964hPa	475J/kg	0fraction	-2.1°C	50%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24135m	15m/s	33m/s	32m/s	6.5m/s
23:00 ☾	964hPa	271J/kg	0fraction	-1.5°C	50%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24134m	15m/s	-	-	7.4m/s
Mon, Aug 24 Sunrise 06:53 Sunset 20:09
24:00 ☾	964hPa	314J/kg	0fraction	-2.1°C	50%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24134m	16m/s	-	-	6.4m/s
01:00 ☾	964hPa	265J/kg	0fraction	-0.5°C	50%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24134m	16m/s	35m/s	33m/s	6.6m/s
02:00 ☾	964hPa	248J/kg	0fraction	-1.1°C	33%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24134m	15m/s	-	-	6.3m/s
03:00 ☾	963hPa	202J/kg	0fraction	-1°C	17%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24135m	13m/s	-	-	5.2m/s
04:00 ☾	962hPa	218J/kg	0fraction	-1.4°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24135m	11m/s	23m/s	19m/s	4.8m/s
05:00 ☾	962hPa	163J/kg	0fraction	-0.4°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24134m	9.4m/s	-	-	4.1m/s
06:00 ☾	962hPa	95J/kg	0fraction	0.6°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24134m	9m/s	-	-	4.3m/s
07:00	962hPa	79J/kg	0fraction	0.2°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24134m	11m/s	18m/s	20m/s	4.7m/s
08:00	963hPa	43J/kg	0fraction	0.2°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24134m	8.7m/s	-	-	4.4m/s
09:00	963hPa	25J/kg	0fraction	0°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24135m	7.4m/s	-	-	5.6m/s
10:00	964hPa	54J/kg	0fraction	-0.3°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24134m	4.5m/s	10m/s	14m/s	4m/s
11:00	964hPa	130J/kg	0fraction	-0.6°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24135m	3.1m/s	-	-	3m/s
12:00	963hPa	175J/kg	0fraction	-0.9°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24134m	2.8m/s	-	-	2.8m/s
13:00	963hPa	208J/kg	0fraction	-1.1°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24135m	1.9m/s	7.9m/s	15m/s	2m/s
14:00	963hPa	232J/kg	0fraction	-1.6°C	5%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24134m	1.8m/s	-	-	1.9m/s
15:00	962hPa	426J/kg	0fraction	-2.1°C	10%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24134m	2m/s	-	-	2.1m/s
16:00	962hPa	584J/kg	0fraction	-2.6°C	15%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24134m	1.4m/s	7.8m/s	9m/s	1.5m/s
17:00	961hPa	709J/kg	0fraction	-3.1°C	27%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24135m	1.3m/s	-	-	0.88m/s
18:00	961hPa	781J/kg	0fraction	-3.5°C	38%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24134m	1.8m/s	-	-	1.4m/s
19:00 ☾	961hPa	808J/kg	0fraction	-3.6°C	50%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24134m	2.7m/s	7.3m/s	12m/s	2m/s
20:00 ☾	963hPa	758J/kg	0fraction	-3.6°C	41%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24134m	3.9m/s	-	-	2.3m/s
21:00 ☾	964hPa	708J/kg	0fraction	-3.5°C	31%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24134m	5.1m/s	-	-	2.7m/s
22:00 ☾	965hPa	658J/kg	0fraction	-3.5°C	22%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24135m	6.2m/s	9.1m/s	15m/s	3.1m/s
23:00 ☾	965hPa	585J/kg	0fraction	-2.6°C	25%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24135m	4.8m/s	-	-	2.6m/s
Tue, Aug 25 Sunrise 06:53 Sunset 20:08
24:00 ☾	966hPa	513J/kg	0fraction	-1.8°C	27%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24135m	3.4m/s	-	-	2.1m/s
01:00 ☾	966hPa	440J/kg	0fraction	-0.94°C	30%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24135m	2m/s	15m/s	20m/s	1.6m/s
02:00 ☾	966hPa	510J/kg	0fraction	-1.6°C	37%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24135m	3.2m/s	-	-	2.5m/s
03:00 ☾	966hPa	581J/kg	0fraction	-2.2°C	43%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24135m	4.3m/s	-	-	3.3m/s
04:00 ☾	966hPa	651J/kg	0fraction	-2.8°C	50%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24135m	5.4m/s	12m/s	14m/s	4.1m/s
05:00 ☾	966hPa	811J/kg	0fraction	-3.2°C	50%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24135m	5.5m/s	-	-	4.4m/s
06:00 ☾	966hPa	972J/kg	0fraction	-3.7°C	50%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24135m	5.5m/s	-	-	4.7m/s
07:00	966hPa	1132J/kg	0fraction	-4.1°C	50%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24135m	5.5m/s	7m/s	9.7m/s	5m/s
08:00	965hPa	1142J/kg	0fraction	-4.5°C	50%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24135m	4.1m/s	-	-	3.9m/s
09:00	965hPa	1151J/kg	0fraction	-4.8°C	50%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24135m	2.7m/s	-	-	2.8m/s
10:00	965hPa	1161J/kg	0fraction	-5.2°C	50%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24135m	1.2m/s	6.9m/s	16m/s	1.7m/s
11:00	965hPa	1136J/kg	0fraction	-4.9°C	67%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24135m	2.3m/s	-	-	2.2m/s
12:00	964hPa	1112J/kg	0fraction	-4.6°C	83%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24135m	3.3m/s	-	-	2.7m/s
13:00	964hPa	1087J/kg	0fraction	-4.3°C	100%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24135m	4.3m/s	8.9m/s	14m/s	3.3m/s
14:00	964hPa	1050J/kg	0fraction	-3.8°C	76%	0mm	0mm	-17dBZ	0mm	24135m	6m/s	-	-	3.4m/s

How to read: these inputs help produce the derived score; they are not requirements by themselves.

How this forecast is made

Opportunities are threshold-based signals: PhotoWeather checks whether forecast conditions match the rules for a photography scenario. They are planning guidance, not guarantees. Forecasts can change as new model runs arrive, and confidence generally decreases farther into the forecast horizon, so recheck conditions before travelling.

The weather forecast foundation comes through Open-Meteo , which aggregates models from weather agencies. PhotoWeather applies condition-specific thresholds and derived calculations; not every condition uses every model or data input.

How opportunities work → Weather data sources →

Forecast generated

Aug 22, 2026, 7:11 PM UTC

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