Rule Storm Chaser

Storm Chaser Forecast for Kansas Flint Hills, US Great Plains

Wichita, Kansas, United States

The Kansas Flint Hills preserve one of North America’s largest remaining expanses of tallgrass prairie because shallow, chert-rich soils over limestone discouraged widespread ploughing, leaving rolling ridgelines largely open. Around Tallgrass Prairie National Preserve and Konza Prairie, limestone benches, lone trees, ranch fences, and black-to-green prescribed-burn patterns provide visible scale beneath spring supercells and broad summer anvils.

Currently

Real-time conditions

Storm Intensity

43%

CAPE147

Lifted Index-2.1°C

Wind Gusts13.3m/s

Precipitation0.8mm

Upcoming Opportunities

When all conditions match, PhotoWeather marks an opportunity window.

Times shown in America/Chicago

Next opportunity

Weak Storm

Kansas Flint Hills

Today · 23:00–24:00 · 1h window

Medium confidence

51%

⛈️Storm Intensity42.7%

CAPE: 147

Lifted Index: -2.1°C

Wind Gusts: 13.3m/s

Precipitation: 0.8mm

Weak Storm

Kansas Flint Hills

Tomorrow · 19:00–20:00

⛈️Storm Intensity:41%

Medium

Weak Storm

Kansas Flint Hills

Sun, Aug 16 · 16:00–19:00

⛈️Storm Intensity:41-45%

Low

Weak Storm at Sunset

Kansas Flint Hills

Sun, Aug 16 · 19:00–21:00

⛈️Storm Intensity:44-47%

Low

Weak Storm

Kansas Flint Hills

Sun, Aug 16 · 21:00–24:00

⛈️Storm Intensity:40-47%

Low

Weak Storm

Kansas Flint Hills

Mon, Aug 17 · 01:00–02:00

⛈️Storm Intensity:41%

Low

Weak Storm

Kansas Flint Hills

Mon, Aug 17 · 04:00–05:00

⛈️Storm Intensity:51.7%

Medium

+3 more windows in the next 14 days

How this forecast is evaluated

See which weather signals PhotoWeather uses to identify Storm Chaser conditions across US Great Plains. The requirements and hourly values below show how those signals apply at Kansas Flint Hills.

Explore Storm Chaser conditions across US Great Plains →

Recorded match history

Completed PhotoWeather forecast matches recorded for this exact rule at Kansas Flint Hills during the last 365 days.

Last 30 days

recorded matching windows · 53% average confidence

Last 90 days

recorded matching windows · 54% average confidence

Last 365 days

recorded matching windows · 55% average confidence

Most frequent recorded start hour

19:00 local time, shared by 13 of 55 matches recorded in the last 365 days.

Most represented month

July, with 29 of 55 matches recorded in the last 365 days.

These figures use completed PhotoWeather MatchEvent records from the previous 365 days only. They describe recorded forecast matches, not observations, climatological probability, or a guarantee of future conditions.

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95-hour requirements breakdown

When available, the detailed table below covers only the stated 95-hour horizon (typically 72–168 hours, depending on available hourly data). Opportunity records above span the next 14 days, so this table does not explain that entire 14-day period.

What passed or failed, hour by hour

9matching hours in the next 95 hoursJump to next match

AND logic: all conditions required

Meets requirement

Misses requirement

Time America/Chicago	Storm Intensity ≥ 40.0%
Wed, Aug 12
23:00	25%
Thu, Aug 13
24:00	25%
01:00	29%
02:00	22%
03:00	25%
04:00	31%
05:00	28%
06:00	25%
07:00	29%
08:00	34%
09:00	33%
10:00	27%
11:00	24%
12:00	33%
13:00	34%
14:00	30%
15:00	30%
16:00	31%
17:00	34%
18:00	27%
19:00	41%
20:00	35%
21:00	27%
22:00	33%
23:00	43%
Fri, Aug 14
24:00	25%
01:00	32%
02:00	26%
03:00	27%
04:00	29%
05:00	27%
06:00	24%
07:00	24%
08:00	22%
09:00	24%
10:00	23%
11:00	24%
12:00	24%
13:00	31%
14:00	30%
15:00	31%
16:00	33%
17:00	34%
18:00	38%
19:00	41%
20:00	35%
21:00	33%
22:00	22%
23:00	16%
Sat, Aug 15
24:00	16%
01:00	22%
02:00	17%
03:00	17%
04:00	21%
05:00	0%
06:00	0%
07:00	0%
08:00	14%
09:00	16%
10:00	23%
11:00	21%
12:00	21%
13:00	21%
14:00	0%
15:00	0%
16:00	0%
17:00	0%
18:00	0%
19:00	15%
20:00	0%
21:00	0%
22:00	16%
23:00	17%
Sun, Aug 16
24:00	21%
01:00	27%
02:00	17%
03:00	0%
04:00	25%
05:00	16%
06:00	0%
07:00	29%
08:00	24%
09:00	27%
10:00	36%
11:00	34%
12:00	34%
13:00	39%
14:00	35%
15:00	36%
16:00	42%
17:00	41%
18:00	45%
19:00	47%
20:00	44%
21:00	42%

How to read: colored cells show whether each predicate requirement is met; highlighted rows mean the full rule matched (an opportunity).

What does Storm Intensity mean?

Inputs that drive the score

This derived score summarizes multiple raw weather signals. The table below shows the supporting inputs hour by hour, so you can see what's pushing the score up or down.

Time America/Chicago	Air Pressure hPa	CAPE J/kg	Convective Precip Fraction fraction	Lifted Index °C	Precipitation Chance %	Rainfall mm	Showers mm	Simulated Reflectivity dBZ	Total Precipitation mm	Visibility m	Wind Gusts m/s	Wind Shear 0-3 km m/s	Wind Shear 0-6 km m/s	Wind Speed m/s
Thu, Aug 13 Sunrise 06:44 Sunset 20:22
23:00 ☾	960hPa	147J/kg	0.16fraction	-2.1°C	32%	0mm	1.4mm	-20dBZ	0.75mm	10297m	13m/s	-	-	5.6m/s
Fri, Aug 14 Sunrise 06:44 Sunset 20:22
24:00 ☾	961hPa	17J/kg	0.32fraction	-0.8°C	41%	0mm	0.01mm	-20dBZ	1.4mm	24135m	7.2m/s	-	-	3m/s
01:00 ☾	961hPa	72J/kg	0.49fraction	-1.3°C	49%	0mm	0.28mm	-20dBZ	1.6mm	20814m	8.7m/s	5.7m/s	11m/s	3m/s
02:00 ☾	961hPa	170J/kg	0.32fraction	-1.7°C	40%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0.19mm	24134m	13m/s	-	-	4.6m/s
03:00 ☾	961hPa	263J/kg	0.16fraction	-2.9°C	31%	0.01mm	0.09mm	-20dBZ	0.44mm	24134m	13m/s	-	-	5.2m/s
04:00 ☾	962hPa	394J/kg	0fraction	-2.3°C	22%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0.5mm	24135m	14m/s	7.1m/s	9m/s	4.4m/s
05:00 ☾	962hPa	424J/kg	0fraction	-2.3°C	22%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0.56mm	24134m	14m/s	-	-	4.6m/s
06:00 ☾	962hPa	83J/kg	0fraction	-1.1°C	22%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0.56mm	24135m	12m/s	-	-	4.8m/s
07:00	963hPa	119J/kg	0fraction	-0.8°C	22%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0.56mm	24135m	12m/s	3.8m/s	3.4m/s	5.1m/s
08:00	963hPa	278J/kg	0fraction	-1.3°C	15%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24135m	12m/s	-	-	5.3m/s
09:00	964hPa	84J/kg	0fraction	-0.7°C	7%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24135m	13m/s	-	-	6.7m/s
10:00	964hPa	108J/kg	0fraction	-1.6°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24134m	11m/s	4.7m/s	3.8m/s	7.7m/s
11:00	964hPa	218J/kg	0fraction	-2.1°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24134m	9.7m/s	-	-	7.5m/s
12:00	964hPa	399J/kg	0fraction	-2.4°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24135m	9.6m/s	-	-	7.4m/s
13:00	964hPa	539J/kg	0fraction	-3°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24134m	9.7m/s	1.4m/s	6.9m/s	7.6m/s
14:00	963hPa	649J/kg	0fraction	-3.4°C	23%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24134m	9.7m/s	-	-	7.7m/s
15:00	963hPa	657J/kg	0fraction	-2.8°C	46%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24134m	10m/s	-	-	7.8m/s
16:00	963hPa	639J/kg	0fraction	-2.7°C	69%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24134m	10m/s	3.4m/s	4.6m/s	7.9m/s
17:00	962hPa	627J/kg	0.33fraction	-2.9°C	75%	0mm	0mm	-15dBZ	0mm	24135m	9.9m/s	-	-	7.8m/s
18:00	962hPa	523J/kg	0.67fraction	-2.6°C	80%	0mm	0mm	-10dBZ	0mm	24135m	9.5m/s	-	-	7.7m/s
19:00 ☾	962hPa	384J/kg	1fraction	-2.2°C	86%	0mm	0mm	-5.5dBZ	0.19mm	24135m	8.9m/s	6.5m/s	12m/s	5.7m/s
20:00 ☾	964hPa	264J/kg	0.67fraction	-2.6°C	65%	0mm	0mm	-10dBZ	0mm	24135m	16m/s	-	-	12m/s
21:00 ☾	964hPa	255J/kg	0.33fraction	-2.1°C	44%	0mm	0mm	-15dBZ	0.06mm	24134m	18m/s	-	-	10m/s
22:00 ☾	964hPa	181J/kg	0fraction	-1.6°C	23%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0.06mm	24134m	6.6m/s	7.1m/s	6.9m/s	3m/s
23:00 ☾	965hPa	88J/kg	0fraction	-1.8°C	28%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0.06mm	24135m	4.7m/s	-	-	2.4m/s
Sat, Aug 15 Sunrise 06:45 Sunset 20:21
24:00 ☾	966hPa	33J/kg	0fraction	-1°C	33%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0.06mm	24134m	4.4m/s	-	-	2.7m/s
01:00 ☾	967hPa	5J/kg	0fraction	-0.4°C	39%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0.06mm	24134m	5.5m/s	9.8m/s	11m/s	3.7m/s
02:00 ☾	967hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	-0.3°C	42%	0mm	0.01mm	-20dBZ	0.06mm	24134m	4.5m/s	-	-	2.8m/s
03:00 ☾	967hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	-0.1°C	46%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0.06mm	24135m	3.9m/s	-	-	2.8m/s
04:00 ☾	967hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	-0.1°C	50%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0.06mm	24135m	3.8m/s	10m/s	8.1m/s	2.7m/s
05:00 ☾	967hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	1.1°C	50%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0.06mm	24135m	4.1m/s	-	-	2.5m/s
06:00 ☾	967hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	3.2°C	50%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0.06mm	24134m	7.7m/s	-	-	3.1m/s
07:00	967hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	3.2°C	50%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0.06mm	24134m	10m/s	12m/s	9.6m/s	3.5m/s
08:00	967hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	1.2°C	33%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24135m	14m/s	-	-	4.6m/s
09:00	968hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	0.1°C	17%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24134m	13m/s	-	-	5.9m/s
10:00	968hPa	71J/kg	0fraction	-1.1°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24135m	11m/s	5.6m/s	4.3m/s	6.6m/s
11:00	968hPa	157J/kg	0fraction	-1.7°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24135m	9.8m/s	-	-	6.9m/s
12:00	968hPa	16J/kg	0fraction	-0.5°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24135m	9.2m/s	-	-	6.9m/s
13:00	967hPa	80J/kg	0fraction	-0.8°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24135m	7.7m/s	1.6m/s	5.6m/s	6.8m/s
14:00	967hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	0.3°C	17%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24134m	7.2m/s	-	-	6.6m/s
15:00	966hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	0.5°C	33%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24135m	7.3m/s	-	-	6.3m/s
16:00	966hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	0.7°C	50%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24134m	7.3m/s	2m/s	6.5m/s	5.9m/s
17:00	965hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	0.8°C	40%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24135m	7.2m/s	-	-	6.3m/s
18:00	965hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	1.2°C	31%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24135m	7.1m/s	-	-	6.5m/s
19:00 ☾	965hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	1.1°C	21%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24134m	6.6m/s	3.5m/s	12m/s	5.8m/s
20:00 ☾	965hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	1°C	18%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24135m	4.3m/s	-	-	0.89m/s
21:00 ☾	966hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	1.5°C	15%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24134m	9.7m/s	-	-	5.3m/s
22:00 ☾	966hPa	10J/kg	0fraction	0.7°C	12%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24135m	9.3m/s	7m/s	11m/s	4.1m/s
23:00 ☾	966hPa	109J/kg	0fraction	-0.7°C	42%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24134m	5.2m/s	-	-	2.9m/s
Sun, Aug 16 Sunrise 06:46 Sunset 20:20
24:00 ☾	966hPa	53J/kg	0fraction	-0.3°C	71%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24134m	5.5m/s	-	-	3.3m/s
01:00 ☾	967hPa	87J/kg	0fraction	-0.2°C	100%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24134m	4.5m/s	9.4m/s	13m/s	2.7m/s
02:00 ☾	967hPa	188J/kg	0fraction	0.1°C	67%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24134m	2.5m/s	-	-	1.8m/s
03:00 ☾	966hPa	114J/kg	0fraction	0.1°C	33%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24134m	1.4m/s	-	-	1.3m/s
04:00 ☾	967hPa	108J/kg	0fraction	-0.2°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24134m	2.2m/s	18m/s	17m/s	1.2m/s
05:00 ☾	967hPa	178J/kg	0fraction	-0.6°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24135m	3.3m/s	-	-	2.3m/s
06:00 ☾	967hPa	99J/kg	0fraction	0°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24135m	5.6m/s	-	-	3.6m/s
07:00	968hPa	195J/kg	0fraction	-0.6°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24135m	6.7m/s	16m/s	15m/s	3.7m/s
08:00	968hPa	534J/kg	0fraction	-1.6°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24135m	5.9m/s	-	-	3.6m/s
09:00	968hPa	873J/kg	0fraction	-2.7°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24135m	5m/s	-	-	3.5m/s
10:00	969hPa	1212J/kg	0fraction	-3.7°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24135m	4.2m/s	9.6m/s	8.7m/s	3.4m/s
11:00	968hPa	1160J/kg	0fraction	-3.7°C	17%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24135m	4m/s	-	-	3.6m/s
12:00	968hPa	1108J/kg	0fraction	-3.6°C	33%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24135m	3.8m/s	-	-	3.8m/s
13:00	968hPa	1056J/kg	0fraction	-3.6°C	50%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24135m	3.6m/s	10m/s	7.4m/s	4m/s
14:00	968hPa	1156J/kg	0fraction	-3.7°C	40%	0mm	0.08mm	-20dBZ	0.06mm	24135m	5.1m/s	-	-	4m/s
15:00	968hPa	1255J/kg	0fraction	-3.8°C	31%	0mm	0.15mm	-20dBZ	0.13mm	24135m	6.5m/s	-	-	3.9m/s
16:00	969hPa	1355J/kg	0fraction	-3.9°C	21%	0mm	0.23mm	-20dBZ	0.19mm	24135m	8m/s	13m/s	7.7m/s	3.9m/s
17:00	969hPa	1293J/kg	0fraction	-4.4°C	31%	0mm	0.15mm	-20dBZ	0.63mm	24135m	8.3m/s	-	-	4.2m/s
18:00	970hPa	1230J/kg	0fraction	-4.9°C	41%	0mm	0.08mm	-20dBZ	1.1mm	24135m	8.6m/s	-	-	4.5m/s
19:00 ☾	971hPa	1168J/kg	0fraction	-5.4°C	51%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	1.5mm	24135m	8.9m/s	13m/s	9.8m/s	4.7m/s
20:00 ☾	970hPa	1163J/kg	0.33fraction	-5.2°C	42%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	1mm	24135m	8.7m/s	-	-	4.7m/s
21:00 ☾	970hPa	1158J/kg	0.67fraction	-5°C	33%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0.5mm	24135m	8.5m/s	-	-	4.6m/s
22:00 ☾	970hPa	1153J/kg	1fraction	-4.9°C	24%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24135m	8.3m/s	13m/s	13m/s	4.5m/s

How to read: these inputs help produce the derived score; they are not requirements by themselves.

How this forecast is made

Opportunities are threshold-based signals: PhotoWeather checks whether forecast conditions match the rules for a photography scenario. They are planning guidance, not guarantees. Forecasts can change as new model runs arrive, and confidence generally decreases farther into the forecast horizon, so recheck conditions before travelling.

The weather forecast foundation comes through Open-Meteo , which aggregates models from weather agencies. PhotoWeather applies condition-specific thresholds and derived calculations; not every condition uses every model or data input.

How opportunities work → Weather data sources →

Forecast generated

Aug 14, 2026, 3:18 AM UTC

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