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Rule Morning Frost

Wast Water - Morning Frost - Lake District

Wasdale Head, England, United Kingdom

Frost crystals on calm, cold mornings near sunrise

No opportunities right now
Here’s what usually blocks matches

No Morning Frost opportunities in the next 14 days

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Rule requirements (key thresholds)
Time Window · Sunrise -45m to +90m Frost Probability · ≥ 60.0% Wind Speed · ≤ 1.5m/s

Tip: Scroll down to the 72-hour table to see exactly which condition fails hour by hour.

Most common blockers (next 72 hours)
Frost Probability 100% failing
Time Window 88% failing
Wind Speed 47% failing

Currently

Real-time conditions
Soil Temperature16.1°C
Dew Point17.1°C (high dew point)
Wind Speed2.3m/s (calm conditions)
Cloud Cover0%

Upcoming Opportunities

When all conditions match, PhotoWeather marks an opportunity window.

Times shown in Europe/London

No opportunities in the next 10 days

See the blocker timeline below to understand which conditions are preventing matches.

What this forecast looks for

Plain-language explanation from the rule

This forecast tracks the conditions that create the Lake District's enchanting frost photography opportunities. We combine temperature, dewpoint, wind, and humidity data to predict when hoar frost will transform England's most romantic landscapes into glittering winter scenes.

The Lake District's combination of lakes, tarns, and sheltered valleys creates ideal conditions for heavy frost formation. England's naturally high humidity combined with calm, cold nights produces thick hoar frost deposits that coat every surface. The region's intimate scale means frost-covered scenes retain the romantic quality that has drawn artists here for centuries.

What makes the Lake District special for frost photography:

  • Frozen tarns - Small tarns like Tarn Hows freeze solid, creating pristine ice skating scenes
  • Frosted fells - Grasses and bracken on fell sides become forests of ice crystals
  • Lake shore ice - Derwentwater and Windermere develop fascinating ice formations along their shores
  • Romantic compositions - Frost-covered stone walls, bare trees, and winter light evoke Wordsworth's poetry

Tarn Hows becomes a winter jewel when frozen and frost-covered—the small tarn surrounded by frosted woodland creates postcard-perfect scenes. Derwentwater's shores develop intricate ice patterns, particularly in sheltered bays like the view from Friars Crag. Higher tarns like Blea Tarn freeze reliably and hold frost longer, often remaining photogenic well into morning. Frosted bracken on the lower fells catches golden morning light beautifully. The key is arriving at dawn after clear, calm nights—our forecast identifies these conditions and predicts how long frost will persist after sunrise.

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72-hour requirements breakdown

What passed or failed, hour by hour
0matching hours in the next 80 hours
AND logic: all conditions required
Meets requirement
Misses requirement
Time
Europe/London
Time Window
Sunrise -45m to +90m
Frost Probability
≥ 60.0%
Wind Speed
≤ 1.5m/s
Wed, Jul 8
05:000%1.1m/s
06:000%1.1m/s
07:000%1.1m/s
08:000%1.3m/s
09:000%1.6m/s
10:000%1.9m/s
11:000%2m/s
12:000%1.9m/s
13:000%2.1m/s
14:000%2.3m/s
15:000%2.3m/s
16:000%2.3m/s
17:000%2m/s
18:000%1.7m/s
19:000%1.3m/s
20:000%1.4m/s
21:000%0.96m/s
22:000%0.9m/s
23:000%0.93m/s
Thu, Jul 9
24:000%0.77m/s
01:000%0.71m/s
02:000%0.61m/s
03:000%0.36m/s
04:000%0.24m/s
05:000%0.52m/s
06:000%0.79m/s
07:000%0.87m/s
08:000%1.2m/s
09:000%1.4m/s
10:000%1.9m/s
11:000%2m/s
12:000%2.1m/s
13:000%2.2m/s
14:000%2.2m/s
15:000%2.1m/s
16:000%2.1m/s
17:000%2.1m/s
18:000%1.8m/s
19:000%1.5m/s
20:000%1.3m/s
21:000%1.1m/s
22:000%1.1m/s
23:000%1.1m/s
Fri, Jul 10
24:000%1.3m/s
01:000%1.6m/s
02:000%1.5m/s
03:000%1.4m/s
04:000%1.4m/s
05:000%1.4m/s
06:000%1.4m/s
07:000%0.78m/s
08:000%0.69m/s
09:000%0.88m/s
10:000%0.74m/s
11:000%0.76m/s
12:000%1.1m/s
13:000%1.1m/s
14:000%1.3m/s
15:000%1.2m/s
16:000%1.4m/s
17:000%1.9m/s
18:000%2.1m/s
19:000%2.3m/s
20:000%2.5m/s
21:000%2.7m/s
22:000%2.9m/s
23:000%2.7m/s
Sat, Jul 11
24:000%2.5m/s
01:000%2.3m/s
02:000%1.9m/s
03:000%1.5m/s
04:000%1.1m/s
05:000%1.4m/s
06:000%1.8m/s
07:000%2.1m/s
08:000%2.5m/s
09:000%2.9m/s
10:000%3.3m/s
11:000%3.2m/s
12:000%3.1m/s
How to read: colored cells show whether each predicate requirement is met; highlighted rows mean the full rule matched (an opportunity).

What does Frost Probability mean?

Inputs that drive the score

This derived score summarizes multiple raw weather signals. The table below shows the supporting inputs hour by hour, so you can see what's pushing the score up or down.

Time
Europe/London
Dew Point
°C
Surface Temperature
°C
Temperature
°C
Time Window
Total Cloud Coverage
%
Vapor Pressure Deficit
kPa
Wed, Jul 8 Sunrise 04:49 Sunset 21:46
15:00
17°C 16°C 22°C - 0% 0.66kPa
16:00
17°C 16°C 22°C - 0% 0.69kPa
17:00
16°C 17°C 21°C - 31% 0.7kPa
18:00
16°C 17°C 21°C - 62% 0.69kPa
19:00
16°C 17°C 20°C - 79% 0.62kPa
20:00
17°C 17°C 19°C - 5% 0.38kPa
21:00
14°C 17°C 17°C - 12% 0.33kPa
22:00
12°C 17°C 15°C - 13% 0.29kPa
23:00
12°C 16°C 15°C - 96% 0.3kPa
Thu, Jul 9 Sunrise 04:49 Sunset 21:46
24:00
11°C 16°C 14°C - 5% 0.33kPa
01:00
11°C 16°C 14°C - 0% 0.31kPa
02:00
11°C 16°C 14°C - 0% 0.31kPa
03:00
10°C 15°C 14°C - 0% 0.3kPa
04:00
10°C 15°C 14°C - 0% 0.29kPa
05:00
11°C 15°C 13°C - 5% 0.27kPa
06:00
12°C 15°C 14°C - 0% 0.29kPa
07:00
13°C 15°C 17°C - 0% 0.35kPa
08:00
14°C 15°C 18°C - 0% 0.41kPa
09:00
15°C 15°C 19°C - 0% 0.46kPa
10:00
16°C 15°C 20°C - 9% 0.49kPa
11:00
16°C 15°C 20°C - 14% 0.56kPa
12:00
16°C 16°C 21°C - 0% 0.64kPa
13:00
16°C 16°C 21°C - 0% 0.72kPa
14:00
16°C 16°C 22°C - 1% 0.78kPa
15:00
16°C 17°C 22°C - 1% 0.8kPa
16:00
16°C 17°C 22°C - 23% 0.79kPa
17:00
16°C 17°C 21°C - 100% 0.75kPa
18:00
16°C 17°C 21°C - 78% 0.65kPa
19:00
16°C 17°C 20°C - 100% 0.56kPa
20:00
17°C 17°C 19°C - 100% 0.32kPa
21:00
15°C 17°C 17°C - 86% 0.24kPa
22:00
14°C 17°C 16°C - 100% 0.22kPa
23:00
13°C 17°C 15°C - 100% 0.27kPa
Fri, Jul 10 Sunrise 04:50 Sunset 21:45
24:00
12°C 17°C 15°C - 95% 0.31kPa
01:00
12°C 16°C 15°C - 4% 0.3kPa
02:00
12°C 16°C 15°C - 0% 0.28kPa
03:00
12°C 16°C 15°C - 43% 0.26kPa
04:00
12°C 16°C 15°C - 89% 0.27kPa
05:00
12°C 15°C 15°C - 100% 0.29kPa
06:00
13°C 15°C 16°C - 99% 0.33kPa
07:00
15°C 15°C 18°C - 73% 0.39kPa
08:00
15°C 16°C 19°C - 90% 0.56kPa
09:00
16°C 16°C 21°C - 77% 0.68kPa
10:00
16°C 16°C 22°C - 12% 0.81kPa
11:00
17°C 16°C 23°C - 64% 0.93kPa
12:00
17°C 17°C 24°C - 11% 1kPa
13:00
17°C 17°C 24°C - 55% 1.1kPa
14:00
17°C 18°C 25°C - 5% 1.1kPa
15:00
17°C 18°C 25°C - 42% 1.2kPa
16:00
18°C 18°C 25°C - 31% 1.2kPa
17:00
18°C 18°C 25°C - 94% 1kPa
18:00
18°C 19°C 24°C - 100% 0.84kPa
19:00
19°C 19°C 23°C - 81% 0.54kPa
20:00
18°C 18°C 21°C - 87% 0.37kPa
21:00
17°C 18°C 19°C - 94% 0.23kPa
22:00
16°C 18°C 17°C - 100% 0.12kPa
23:00
16°C 18°C 17°C - 100% 0.12kPa
Sat, Jul 11 Sunrise 04:51 Sunset 21:44
24:00
16°C 17°C 17°C - 100% 0.12kPa
01:00
16°C 17°C 17°C - 100% 0.12kPa
02:00
17°C 17°C 18°C - 100% 0.2kPa
03:00
17°C 17°C 19°C - 99% 0.28kPa
04:00
17°C 17°C 20°C - 99% 0.38kPa
05:00
17°C 18°C 20°C - 99% 0.41kPa
06:00
17°C 18°C 21°C - 100% 0.44kPa
07:00
17°C 18°C 21°C - 100% 0.46kPa
08:00
18°C 18°C 21°C - 100% 0.44kPa
09:00
18°C 18°C 21°C - 100% 0.42kPa
10:00
18°C 18°C 21°C - 100% 0.4kPa
11:00
18°C 18°C 20°C - 69% 0.38kPa
12:00
18°C 19°C 20°C - 39% 0.36kPa
13:00
18°C 19°C 20°C - 8% 0.34kPa
14:00
17°C 18°C 19°C - 6% 0.27kPa
How to read: these inputs help produce the derived score; they are not requirements by themselves.

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