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Rule Morning Frost

Grasmere - Morning Frost - Lake District

Ambleside, England, United Kingdom

Frost crystals on calm, cold mornings near sunrise

No opportunities right now
Here’s what usually blocks matches

No Morning Frost opportunities in the next 14 days

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Rule requirements (key thresholds)
Time Window · Sunrise -45m to +90m Frost Probability · ≥ 60.0% Wind Speed · ≤ 1.5m/s

Tip: Scroll down to the 72-hour table to see exactly which condition fails hour by hour.

Most common blockers (next 72 hours)
Frost Probability 100% failing
Wind Speed 99% failing
Time Window 85% failing

Currently

Real-time conditions
Soil Temperature4.9°C
Dew Point4.6°C (low dew point)
Wind Speed12.0m/s (moderate winds)
Cloud Cover100%

Upcoming Opportunities

When all conditions match, PhotoWeather marks an opportunity window.

Times shown in Europe/London

No opportunities in the next 10 days

See the blocker timeline below to understand which conditions are preventing matches.

What this forecast looks for

Plain-language explanation from the rule

This forecast tracks the conditions that create the Lake District's enchanting frost photography opportunities. We combine temperature, dewpoint, wind, and humidity data to predict when hoar frost will transform England's most romantic landscapes into glittering winter scenes.

The Lake District's combination of lakes, tarns, and sheltered valleys creates ideal conditions for heavy frost formation. England's naturally high humidity combined with calm, cold nights produces thick hoar frost deposits that coat every surface. The region's intimate scale means frost-covered scenes retain the romantic quality that has drawn artists here for centuries.

What makes the Lake District special for frost photography:

  • Frozen tarns - Small tarns like Tarn Hows freeze solid, creating pristine ice skating scenes
  • Frosted fells - Grasses and bracken on fell sides become forests of ice crystals
  • Lake shore ice - Derwentwater and Windermere develop fascinating ice formations along their shores
  • Romantic compositions - Frost-covered stone walls, bare trees, and winter light evoke Wordsworth's poetry

Tarn Hows becomes a winter jewel when frozen and frost-covered—the small tarn surrounded by frosted woodland creates postcard-perfect scenes. Derwentwater's shores develop intricate ice patterns, particularly in sheltered bays like the view from Friars Crag. Higher tarns like Blea Tarn freeze reliably and hold frost longer, often remaining photogenic well into morning. Frosted bracken on the lower fells catches golden morning light beautifully. The key is arriving at dawn after clear, calm nights—our forecast identifies these conditions and predicts how long frost will persist after sunrise.

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72-hour requirements breakdown

What passed or failed, hour by hour
0matching hours in the next 95 hours
AND logic: all conditions required
Meets requirement
Misses requirement
Time
Europe/London
Time Window
Sunrise -45m to +90m
Frost Probability
≥ 60.0%
Wind Speed
≤ 1.5m/s
Wed, Mar 11
07:007%9.2m/s
08:0012%9.7m/s
09:0015%10m/s
10:0015%11m/s
11:0025%11m/s
12:0033%11m/s
13:0033%10m/s
14:0038%9.5m/s
15:0033%8.9m/s
16:0033%7.8m/s
17:0014%8m/s
18:0015%8m/s
19:0014%7.7m/s
20:0025%7.6m/s
21:0014%8.5m/s
22:0014%8.8m/s
23:0011%8m/s
Thu, Mar 12
24:0011%8.5m/s
01:007%8.7m/s
02:007%9.2m/s
03:007%10m/s
04:007%10m/s
05:007%11m/s
06:007%12m/s
07:0011%12m/s
08:007%11m/s
09:007%11m/s
10:007%13m/s
11:007%14m/s
12:007%15m/s
13:007%15m/s
14:000.6%17m/s
15:001.3%11m/s
16:0011%13m/s
17:0013%5m/s
18:0014%5.7m/s
19:0011%6.6m/s
20:009%4.7m/s
21:0011%3.5m/s
22:0011%8.8m/s
23:0011%10m/s
Fri, Mar 13
24:0011%11m/s
01:0016%9.6m/s
02:0031%9.8m/s
03:0028%10m/s
04:0024%10m/s
05:0024%11m/s
06:0017%10m/s
07:0027%9.9m/s
08:0020%9.8m/s
09:0016%8.9m/s
10:0016%10m/s
11:0020%9.1m/s
12:0016%5.7m/s
13:0017%5.6m/s
14:0024%7.8m/s
15:0038%8.2m/s
16:0034%7.7m/s
17:0030%7m/s
18:0033%5.3m/s
19:0039%2.8m/s
20:0041%2.2m/s
21:0029%2.2m/s
22:0026%2.2m/s
23:0026%2.3m/s
Sat, Mar 14
24:0037%1.7m/s
01:0025%1.7m/s
02:0029%1.8m/s
03:0026%2.1m/s
04:0026%2.1m/s
05:0026%2.1m/s
06:0029%1.9m/s
07:0026%1.9m/s
08:0041%2m/s
09:0046%3.5m/s
10:0042%5.1m/s
11:0040%6.6m/s
12:0037%6.8m/s
13:0034%5m/s
14:0024%3.2m/s
15:0024%1.5m/s
16:0024%1.6m/s
17:0022%1.8m/s
18:0022%2m/s
19:0022%2.1m/s
20:0022%2.2m/s
21:0037%2.3m/s
22:0037%2.7m/s
23:0035%3m/s
Sun, Mar 15
24:0035%3.3m/s
01:0035%4.1m/s
02:0033%5m/s
03:0031%5.8m/s
04:0031%6.1m/s
05:0031%6.4m/s
How to read: colored cells show whether each predicate requirement is met; highlighted rows mean the full rule matched (an opportunity).

What does Frost Probability mean?

Inputs that drive the score

This derived score summarizes multiple raw weather signals. The table below shows the supporting inputs hour by hour, so you can see what's pushing the score up or down.

Time
Europe/London
Dew Point
°C
Surface Temperature
°C
Temperature
°C
Time Window
Total Cloud Coverage
%
Vapor Pressure Deficit
kPa
Thu, Mar 12 Sunrise 06:34 Sunset 18:09
07:00
4.6°C 4.9°C 5.6°C - 100% 0.06kPa
08:00
5°C 5°C 5.6°C - 100% 0.04kPa
09:00
5.8°C 5.1°C 6.3°C - 100% 0.03kPa
10:00
6.3°C 5.2°C 6.9°C - 100% 0.04kPa
11:00
6.9°C 5.4°C 7.5°C - 100% 0.04kPa
12:00
7.3°C 5.6°C 7.9°C - 100% 0.04kPa
13:00
7.5°C 5.9°C 8.1°C - 100% 0.04kPa
14:00
7.7°C 6.1°C 8.4°C - 100% 0.05kPa
15:00
2.9°C 6.1°C 5.4°C - 100% 0.14kPa
16:00
4.3°C 6°C 5.8°C - 100% 0.09kPa
17:00
2.6°C 5.9°C 4.4°C - 100% 0.1kPa
18:00
1.6°C 5.7°C 4.2°C - 100% 0.14kPa
19:00
2°C 5.4°C 3.4°C - 100% 0.07kPa
20:00
2.1°C 5.2°C 2.6°C - 100% 0.02kPa
21:00
1.8°C 5°C 2°C - 100% 0.01kPa
22:00
0.8°C 4.8°C 2.2°C - 100% 0.07kPa
23:00
-0.3°C 4.5°C 1.8°C - 100% 0.1kPa
Fri, Mar 13 Sunrise 06:32 Sunset 18:11
24:00
-1.2°C 4.2°C 1.2°C - 100% 0.1kPa
01:00
-2.2°C 3.9°C 0.69°C - 100% 0.12kPa
02:00
-2.9°C 3.7°C 0.3°C - 35% 0.13kPa
03:00
-3.4°C 3.6°C -0.1°C - 57% 0.13kPa
04:00
-3.2°C 3.6°C -0.09°C - 89% 0.12kPa
05:00
-3.2°C 3.3°C 0.05°C - 97% 0.13kPa
06:00
-3.2°C 3.2°C -0.29°C - 64% 0.12kPa
07:00
-3.3°C 3.2°C -0.3°C - 10% 0.12kPa
08:00
-2.1°C 3°C 0.24°C - 86% 0.1kPa
09:00
0.2°C 2.9°C 0.58°C - 100% 0.02kPa
10:00
0.1°C 2.8°C 0.91°C - 100% 0.04kPa
11:00
0.2°C 2.8°C 1.6°C - 100% 0.06kPa
12:00
1.4°C 2.7°C 1.9°C - 100% 0.02kPa
13:00
1.6°C 2.7°C 2.6°C - 75% 0.05kPa
14:00
2°C 2.8°C 3.7°C - 46% 0.09kPa
15:00
1.9°C 2.9°C 4.1°C - 5% 0.12kPa
16:00
1.3°C 2.9°C 3.8°C - 15% 0.13kPa
17:00
0.6°C 3°C 3.1°C - 29% 0.13kPa
18:00
0.3°C 2.9°C 2.3°C - 16% 0.1kPa
19:00
-0.3°C 2.7°C 1.4°C - 6% 0.07kPa
20:00
-0.4°C 2.7°C 0.79°C - 5% 0.05kPa
21:00
-0.3°C 2.7°C 0.58°C - 31% 0.04kPa
22:00
-0.1°C 2.6°C 0.69°C - 50% 0.04kPa
23:00
0.4°C 2.5°C 1.3°C - 43% 0.04kPa
Sat, Mar 14 Sunrise 06:29 Sunset 18:13
24:00
-0.1°C 2.4°C 0.64°C - 9% 0.03kPa
01:00
-0.5°C 2.4°C 0.16°C - 74% 0.03kPa
02:00
-0.4°C 2.4°C 0.13°C - 27% 0.02kPa
03:00
-0.5°C 2.4°C 0.04°C - 40% 0.02kPa
04:00
-0.5°C 2.4°C 0.04°C - 43% 0.02kPa
05:00
-0.6°C 2.4°C -0.09°C - 41% 0.02kPa
06:00
-0.8°C 2.4°C -0.23°C - 39% 0.02kPa
07:00
-1°C 2.4°C -0.16°C - 41% 0.04kPa
08:00
-0.2°C 2.3°C 1.5°C - 7% 0.08kPa
09:00
-0.1°C 2.3°C 3.3°C - 14% 0.17kPa
10:00
-0.2°C 2.3°C 4.1°C - 59% 0.22kPa
11:00
0°C 2.3°C 4.5°C - 41% 0.23kPa
12:00
0.3°C 2.3°C 4.8°C - 63% 0.24kPa
13:00
0.7°C 2.3°C 3.8°C - 74% 0.16kPa
14:00
1°C 2.3°C 2.8°C - 86% 0.09kPa
15:00
1.2°C 2.2°C 1.7°C - 97% 0.02kPa
16:00
1.2°C 2.2°C 1.7°C - 96% 0.03kPa
17:00
1.2°C 2.2°C 1.8°C - 96% 0.03kPa
18:00
1.1°C 2.2°C 1.8°C - 95% 0.03kPa
19:00
0.9°C 2.1°C 1.5°C - 92% 0.03kPa
20:00
0.6°C 2°C 1.2°C - 90% 0.03kPa
21:00
0.3°C 1.9°C 0.87°C - 87% 0.02kPa
22:00
0.5°C 1.8°C 0.87°C - 87% 0.02kPa
23:00
0.6°C 1.7°C 0.87°C - 87% 0.01kPa
Sun, Mar 15 Sunrise 06:27 Sunset 18:15
24:00
0.7°C 1.7°C 0.86°C - 88% 0.01kPa
01:00
1.1°C 1.7°C 1.3°C - 92% 0.01kPa
02:00
1.5°C 1.7°C 1.8°C - 96% 0.01kPa
03:00
2°C 1.7°C 2.3°C - 100% 0.02kPa
04:00
2.6°C 1.7°C 3°C - 100% 0.02kPa
05:00
3.3°C 1.7°C 3.7°C - 100% 0.02kPa
06:00
4°C 1.6°C 4.4°C - 100% 0.03kPa
How to read: these inputs help produce the derived score; they are not requirements by themselves.

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