Rule Morning Frost

Morning Frost Forecast for Derwentwater, Lake District

Penrith, England, United Kingdom

Derwentwater offers wooded islands, jetties and shoreline boulders beneath Catbells and surrounding fells, creating clear foreground-to-ridge compositions.

Currently

Real-time conditions

Frost Probability

Soil Temperature13.9°C

Dew Point11.0°C (moderate dew point)

Wind Speed7.6m/s (moderate winds)

Cloud Cover100%

Upcoming Opportunities

When all conditions match, PhotoWeather marks an opportunity window.

Times shown in Europe/London

No opportunities in the next 14 days

See which requirements block the most forecast hours below.

Most common blockers (79-hour forecast)

Frost Probability100% of hours
Wind Speed89% of hours
Time Window88% of hours

How this forecast is evaluated

See which weather signals PhotoWeather uses to identify Morning Frost conditions across Lake District. The requirements and hourly values below show how those signals apply at Derwentwater.

Explore Morning Frost conditions across Lake District →

Recorded match history

Completed PhotoWeather forecast matches recorded for this exact rule at Derwentwater during the last 365 days.

Last 30 days

recorded matching windows

Last 90 days

recorded matching windows

Last 365 days

recorded matching window · 62% average confidence

Only 1 completed match is recorded in the last 365 days—insufficient history to identify a reliable typical start time or month.

These figures use completed PhotoWeather MatchEvent records from the previous 365 days only. They describe recorded forecast matches, not observations, climatological probability, or a guarantee of future conditions.

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79-hour requirements breakdown

When available, the detailed table below covers only the stated 79-hour horizon (typically 72–168 hours, depending on available hourly data). Opportunity records above span the next 14 days, so this table does not explain that entire 14-day period.

What passed or failed, hour by hour

0matching hours in the next 79 hours

AND logic: all conditions required

Meets requirement

Misses requirement

Time Europe/London	Time Window Sunrise -45m to +90m	Frost Probability ≥ 60.0%	Wind Speed ≤ 1.5m/s
Tue, Aug 18
06:00	✓	0%	4.5m/s
07:00	✓	0%	3.2m/s
08:00	✕	0%	3.8m/s
09:00	✕	0%	4.2m/s
10:00	✕	0%	4.4m/s
11:00	✕	0%	5.6m/s
12:00	✕	0%	8m/s
13:00	✕	0%	6.9m/s
14:00	✕	0%	7.9m/s
15:00	✕	0%	7.6m/s
16:00	✕	0%	7.4m/s
17:00	✕	0%	6.6m/s
18:00	✕	0%	4.6m/s
19:00	✕	0%	3m/s
20:00	✕	0%	2.2m/s
21:00	✕	0%	1.9m/s
22:00	✕	0%	2m/s
23:00	✕	0%	1.8m/s
Wed, Aug 19
24:00	✕	0%	2.7m/s
01:00	✕	0%	2.1m/s
02:00	✕	0%	2.1m/s
03:00	✕	0%	2.2m/s
04:00	✕	0%	2.2m/s
05:00	✓	0%	2m/s
06:00	✓	0%	2.8m/s
07:00	✓	0%	2.4m/s
08:00	✕	0%	2.2m/s
09:00	✕	0%	2.3m/s
10:00	✕	0%	2.4m/s
11:00	✕	0%	3.6m/s
12:00	✕	0%	4.1m/s
13:00	✕	0%	4.5m/s
14:00	✕	0%	5.2m/s
15:00	✕	0%	5.4m/s
16:00	✕	0%	3.1m/s
17:00	✕	0%	2.4m/s
18:00	✕	0%	1.9m/s
19:00	✕	0%	2.1m/s
20:00	✕	0%	1.9m/s
21:00	✕	0%	1.8m/s
22:00	✕	0%	1.7m/s
23:00	✕	0%	1.5m/s
Thu, Aug 20
24:00	✕	0%	1.3m/s
01:00	✕	0%	1m/s
02:00	✕	0%	1.1m/s
03:00	✕	0%	1.2m/s
04:00	✕	0%	2.2m/s
05:00	✓	0%	2.6m/s
06:00	✓	0%	2.8m/s
07:00	✓	0%	3.4m/s
08:00	✕	0%	4.3m/s
09:00	✕	0%	3.7m/s
10:00	✕	0%	4m/s
11:00	✕	0%	3.5m/s
12:00	✕	0%	3.4m/s
13:00	✕	0%	4.3m/s
14:00	✕	0%	3.8m/s
15:00	✕	0%	3.5m/s
16:00	✕	0%	3.6m/s
17:00	✕	0%	3.4m/s
18:00	✕	0%	2.8m/s
19:00	✕	0%	2.3m/s
20:00	✕	0%	2.1m/s
21:00	✕	0%	1.9m/s
22:00	✕	0%	1.7m/s
23:00	✕	0%	1.7m/s
Fri, Aug 21
24:00	✕	0%	1.6m/s
01:00	✕	0%	1.5m/s
02:00	✕	0%	1.5m/s
03:00	✕	0%	1.5m/s
04:00	✕	0%	1.6m/s
05:00	✓	0%	1.7m/s
06:00	✓	0%	1.9m/s
07:00	✓	0%	2.1m/s
08:00	✕	0%	1.8m/s
09:00	✕	0%	1.6m/s
10:00	✕	0%	1.4m/s
11:00	✕	0%	1.3m/s
12:00	✕	0%	1.3m/s

How to read: colored cells show whether each predicate requirement is met; highlighted rows mean the full rule matched (an opportunity).

What does Frost Probability mean?

Inputs that drive the score

This derived score summarizes multiple raw weather signals. The table below shows the supporting inputs hour by hour, so you can see what's pushing the score up or down.

Time Europe/London	Dew Point °C	Surface Temperature °C	Temperature °C	Time Window	Total Cloud Coverage %	Vapor Pressure Deficit kPa
Tue, Aug 18 Sunrise 05:54 Sunset 20:37
15:00	11°C	14°C	15°C	-	100%	0.35kPa
16:00	11°C	14°C	14°C	-	100%	0.35kPa
17:00	11°C	14°C	14°C	-	92%	0.35kPa
18:00	11°C	14°C	14°C	-	92%	0.32kPa
19:00	11°C	14°C	14°C	-	100%	0.28kPa
20:00	11°C	14°C	13°C	-	100%	0.22kPa
21:00 ☾	11°C	14°C	12°C	-	100%	0.15kPa
22:00 ☾	11°C	14°C	12°C	-	100%	0.11kPa
23:00 ☾	11°C	13°C	12°C	-	100%	0.14kPa
Wed, Aug 19 Sunrise 05:54 Sunset 20:37
24:00 ☾	11°C	13°C	12°C	-	100%	0.13kPa
01:00 ☾	11°C	13°C	12°C	-	100%	0.1kPa
02:00 ☾	11°C	13°C	11°C	-	98%	0.05kPa
03:00 ☾	11°C	13°C	11°C	-	84%	0.07kPa
04:00 ☾	10°C	13°C	11°C	-	78%	0.07kPa
05:00 ☾	9.8°C	13°C	11°C	-	99%	0.06kPa
06:00	9.4°C	13°C	11°C	-	100%	0.14kPa
07:00	9.6°C	12°C	11°C	-	96%	0.12kPa
08:00	9.6°C	12°C	11°C	-	54%	0.15kPa
09:00	9.3°C	12°C	12°C	-	74%	0.23kPa
10:00	9.2°C	12°C	13°C	-	45%	0.3kPa
11:00	9.1°C	13°C	13°C	-	67%	0.38kPa
12:00	9°C	13°C	13°C	-	44%	0.37kPa
13:00	9.3°C	13°C	14°C	-	20%	0.47kPa
14:00	9.6°C	13°C	15°C	-	29%	0.49kPa
15:00	11°C	13°C	14°C	-	94%	0.31kPa
16:00	11°C	13°C	13°C	-	85%	0.18kPa
17:00	11°C	13°C	13°C	-	96%	0.18kPa
18:00	11°C	13°C	13°C	-	100%	0.17kPa
19:00	12°C	13°C	13°C	-	100%	0.1kPa
20:00	11°C	13°C	12°C	-	100%	0.08kPa
21:00 ☾	11°C	13°C	12°C	-	100%	0.08kPa
22:00 ☾	11°C	13°C	12°C	-	100%	0.07kPa
23:00 ☾	11°C	13°C	12°C	-	100%	0.06kPa
Thu, Aug 20 Sunrise 05:56 Sunset 20:35
24:00 ☾	11°C	13°C	12°C	-	100%	0.05kPa
01:00 ☾	11°C	13°C	12°C	-	100%	0.04kPa
02:00 ☾	11°C	13°C	11°C	-	100%	0.03kPa
03:00 ☾	11°C	13°C	12°C	-	100%	0.03kPa
04:00 ☾	11°C	12°C	11°C	-	100%	0.03kPa
05:00 ☾	11°C	12°C	11°C	-	100%	0.03kPa
06:00	11°C	12°C	11°C	-	100%	0.03kPa
07:00	10°C	12°C	11°C	-	100%	0.06kPa
08:00	9°C	12°C	10°C	-	100%	0.09kPa
09:00	9.1°C	12°C	10°C	-	100%	0.09kPa
10:00	9°C	12°C	10°C	-	100%	0.08kPa
11:00	8.6°C	12°C	9.6°C	-	100%	0.08kPa
12:00	8.2°C	12°C	10°C	-	100%	0.13kPa
13:00	8.5°C	12°C	12°C	-	69%	0.32kPa
14:00	8.3°C	12°C	14°C	-	88%	0.47kPa
15:00	8.4°C	12°C	13°C	-	100%	0.41kPa
16:00	8.7°C	12°C	13°C	-	72%	0.38kPa
17:00	8.3°C	12°C	14°C	-	66%	0.47kPa
18:00	8.1°C	13°C	14°C	-	78%	0.5kPa
19:00	8.8°C	13°C	13°C	-	73%	0.37kPa
20:00	7.2°C	12°C	11°C	-	77%	0.29kPa
21:00 ☾	5.6°C	11°C	8.7°C	-	81%	0.22kPa
22:00 ☾	4°C	10°C	6.5°C	-	85%	0.16kPa
23:00 ☾	4.4°C	10°C	7.1°C	-	90%	0.17kPa
Fri, Aug 21 Sunrise 05:57 Sunset 20:32
24:00 ☾	4.9°C	9.9°C	7.7°C	-	95%	0.18kPa
01:00 ☾	5.4°C	9.8°C	8.2°C	-	100%	0.19kPa
02:00 ☾	5.6°C	9.8°C	9°C	-	94%	0.24kPa
03:00 ☾	5.7°C	9.8°C	9.8°C	-	87%	0.29kPa
04:00 ☾	5.8°C	9.9°C	11°C	-	80%	0.35kPa
05:00 ☾	5.8°C	10°C	12°C	-	76%	0.44kPa
06:00	5.7°C	10°C	13°C	-	72%	0.54kPa
07:00	5.5°C	11°C	14°C	-	68%	0.65kPa
08:00	5.7°C	11°C	14°C	-	65%	0.67kPa
09:00	6°C	11°C	14°C	-	62%	0.69kPa
10:00	6.2°C	11°C	15°C	-	59%	0.71kPa
11:00	7°C	12°C	14°C	-	72%	0.55kPa
12:00	7.7°C	12°C	13°C	-	86%	0.41kPa
13:00	8.1°C	12°C	12°C	-	100%	0.29kPa
14:00	7.8°C	12°C	11°C	-	94%	0.26kPa

How to read: these inputs help produce the derived score; they are not requirements by themselves.

How this forecast is made

Opportunities are threshold-based signals: PhotoWeather checks whether forecast conditions match the rules for a photography scenario. They are planning guidance, not guarantees. Forecasts can change as new model runs arrive, and confidence generally decreases farther into the forecast horizon, so recheck conditions before travelling.

The weather forecast foundation comes through Open-Meteo , which aggregates models from weather agencies. PhotoWeather applies condition-specific thresholds and derived calculations; not every condition uses every model or data input.

How opportunities work → Weather data sources →

Forecast generated

Aug 18, 2026, 1:22 PM UTC

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