Rule Morning Frost

Morning Frost Forecast for Derwentwater, Lake District

Penrith, England, United Kingdom

Derwentwater offers wooded islands, jetties and shoreline boulders beneath Catbells and surrounding fells, creating clear foreground-to-ridge compositions.

Currently

Real-time conditions

Frost Probability

Soil Temperature13.1°C

Dew Point9.8°C (moderate dew point)

Wind Speed6.0m/s (moderate winds)

Cloud Cover100%

Upcoming Opportunities

When all conditions match, PhotoWeather marks an opportunity window.

Times shown in Europe/London

No opportunities in the next 14 days

See which requirements block the most forecast hours below.

Most common blockers (79-hour forecast)

Frost Probability100% of hours
Wind Speed92% of hours
Time Window88% of hours

How this forecast is evaluated

See which weather signals PhotoWeather uses to identify Morning Frost conditions across Lake District. The requirements and hourly values below show how those signals apply at Derwentwater.

Explore Morning Frost conditions across Lake District →

Recorded match history

Completed PhotoWeather forecast matches recorded for this exact rule at Derwentwater during the last 365 days.

Last 30 days

recorded matching windows

Last 90 days

recorded matching windows

Last 365 days

recorded matching window · 62% average confidence

Only 1 completed match is recorded in the last 365 days—insufficient history to identify a reliable typical start time or month.

These figures use completed PhotoWeather MatchEvent records from the previous 365 days only. They describe recorded forecast matches, not observations, climatological probability, or a guarantee of future conditions.

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79-hour requirements breakdown

When available, the detailed table below covers only the stated 79-hour horizon (typically 72–168 hours, depending on available hourly data). Opportunity records above span the next 14 days, so this table does not explain that entire 14-day period.

What passed or failed, hour by hour

0matching hours in the next 79 hours

AND logic: all conditions required

Meets requirement

Misses requirement

Time Europe/London	Time Window Sunrise -45m to +90m	Frost Probability ≥ 60.0%	Wind Speed ≤ 1.5m/s
Tue, Aug 25
06:00	✓	0%	2.2m/s
07:00	✓	0%	2.4m/s
08:00	✕	0%	2.4m/s
09:00	✕	0%	2.6m/s
10:00	✕	0%	2.7m/s
11:00	✕	0%	3.2m/s
12:00	✕	0%	5m/s
13:00	✕	0%	6m/s
14:00	✕	0%	6.5m/s
15:00	✕	0%	6m/s
16:00	✕	0%	6.6m/s
17:00	✕	0%	6.2m/s
18:00	✕	0%	5.6m/s
19:00	✕	0%	5.1m/s
20:00	✕	0%	4.7m/s
21:00	✕	0%	4.7m/s
22:00	✕	0%	4.1m/s
23:00	✕	0%	3.6m/s
Wed, Aug 26
24:00	✕	0%	3.2m/s
01:00	✕	0%	3.1m/s
02:00	✕	0%	3.2m/s
03:00	✕	0%	3.1m/s
04:00	✕	0%	2.9m/s
05:00	✓	0%	3.1m/s
06:00	✓	0%	3.1m/s
07:00	✓	0%	3.1m/s
08:00	✕	0%	2.7m/s
09:00	✕	0%	2.5m/s
10:00	✕	0%	2.7m/s
11:00	✕	0%	3.3m/s
12:00	✕	0%	4.9m/s
13:00	✕	0%	5.5m/s
14:00	✕	0%	3.9m/s
15:00	✕	0%	3.7m/s
16:00	✕	0%	3.2m/s
17:00	✕	0%	2.2m/s
18:00	✕	0%	2.1m/s
19:00	✕	0%	2.2m/s
20:00	✕	0%	2.4m/s
21:00	✕	0%	2.4m/s
22:00	✕	0%	2.4m/s
23:00	✕	0%	2.6m/s
Thu, Aug 27
24:00	✕	0%	2.7m/s
01:00	✕	0%	2.5m/s
02:00	✕	0%	2.3m/s
03:00	✕	0%	2.2m/s
04:00	✕	0%	2.1m/s
05:00	✓	0%	2.1m/s
06:00	✓	0%	1.9m/s
07:00	✓	0%	2m/s
08:00	✕	0%	1.9m/s
09:00	✕	0%	1.8m/s
10:00	✕	0%	1.8m/s
11:00	✕	0%	1.8m/s
12:00	✕	0%	1.3m/s
13:00	✕	0%	1.3m/s
14:00	✕	0%	0.56m/s
15:00	✕	0%	0.59m/s
16:00	✕	0%	0.54m/s
17:00	✕	0%	1.8m/s
18:00	✕	0%	2.6m/s
19:00	✕	0%	2.5m/s
20:00	✕	0%	2.5m/s
21:00	✕	0%	2.6m/s
22:00	✕	0%	2.6m/s
23:00	✕	0%	2.6m/s
Fri, Aug 28
24:00	✕	0%	2.7m/s
01:00	✕	0%	2.7m/s
02:00	✕	0%	2.8m/s
03:00	✕	0%	2.8m/s
04:00	✕	0%	2.9m/s
05:00	✓	0%	2.4m/s
06:00	✓	0%	2m/s
07:00	✓	0%	1.5m/s
08:00	✕	0%	1.7m/s
09:00	✕	0%	2m/s
10:00	✕	0%	2.2m/s
11:00	✕	0%	2.2m/s
12:00	✕	0%	2.3m/s

How to read: colored cells show whether each predicate requirement is met; highlighted rows mean the full rule matched (an opportunity).

What does Frost Probability mean?

Inputs that drive the score

This derived score summarizes multiple raw weather signals. The table below shows the supporting inputs hour by hour, so you can see what's pushing the score up or down.

Time Europe/London	Dew Point °C	Surface Temperature °C	Temperature °C	Time Window	Total Cloud Coverage %	Vapor Pressure Deficit kPa
Tue, Aug 25 Sunrise 06:07 Sunset 20:21
15:00	9.8°C	13°C	18°C	-	100%	0.8kPa
16:00	10°C	13°C	18°C	-	100%	0.8kPa
17:00	11°C	14°C	17°C	-	87%	0.69kPa
18:00	11°C	14°C	17°C	-	60%	0.58kPa
19:00	10°C	14°C	15°C	-	49%	0.5kPa
20:00	9.7°C	14°C	14°C	-	76%	0.43kPa
21:00 ☾	10°C	14°C	13°C	-	88%	0.31kPa
22:00 ☾	10°C	14°C	13°C	-	96%	0.22kPa
23:00 ☾	10°C	14°C	12°C	-	100%	0.18kPa
Wed, Aug 26 Sunrise 06:07 Sunset 20:21
24:00 ☾	10°C	13°C	12°C	-	100%	0.12kPa
01:00 ☾	11°C	13°C	12°C	-	98%	0.09kPa
02:00 ☾	10°C	13°C	11°C	-	59%	0.09kPa
03:00 ☾	9.8°C	13°C	11°C	-	97%	0.09kPa
04:00 ☾	9.7°C	13°C	11°C	-	100%	0.11kPa
05:00 ☾	9.8°C	13°C	11°C	-	100%	0.11kPa
06:00 ☾	10°C	12°C	12°C	-	100%	0.12kPa
07:00	11°C	12°C	12°C	-	100%	0.13kPa
08:00	12°C	12°C	14°C	-	100%	0.2kPa
09:00	13°C	13°C	16°C	-	100%	0.37kPa
10:00	13°C	13°C	17°C	-	100%	0.49kPa
11:00	13°C	13°C	17°C	-	100%	0.39kPa
12:00	13°C	13°C	16°C	-	100%	0.24kPa
13:00	13°C	13°C	15°C	-	100%	0.19kPa
14:00	14°C	13°C	15°C	-	100%	0.16kPa
15:00	14°C	13°C	15°C	-	100%	0.14kPa
16:00	14°C	13°C	15°C	-	100%	0.17kPa
17:00	14°C	13°C	15°C	-	100%	0.11kPa
18:00	14°C	14°C	15°C	-	100%	0.1kPa
19:00	15°C	14°C	16°C	-	100%	0.12kPa
20:00	14°C	14°C	15°C	-	93%	0.11kPa
21:00 ☾	14°C	14°C	15°C	-	88%	0.12kPa
22:00 ☾	13°C	14°C	14°C	-	97%	0.11kPa
23:00 ☾	12°C	14°C	13°C	-	95%	0.09kPa
Thu, Aug 27 Sunrise 06:08 Sunset 20:18
24:00 ☾	12°C	14°C	13°C	-	95%	0.09kPa
01:00 ☾	12°C	13°C	13°C	-	7%	0.08kPa
02:00 ☾	12°C	13°C	13°C	-	4%	0.08kPa
03:00 ☾	12°C	13°C	13°C	-	5%	0.09kPa
04:00 ☾	12°C	13°C	13°C	-	38%	0.11kPa
05:00 ☾	12°C	13°C	13°C	-	100%	0.13kPa
06:00 ☾	12°C	13°C	13°C	-	100%	0.14kPa
07:00	12°C	13°C	14°C	-	59%	0.15kPa
08:00	14°C	13°C	16°C	-	100%	0.22kPa
09:00	15°C	13°C	17°C	-	100%	0.34kPa
10:00	15°C	13°C	19°C	-	100%	0.47kPa
11:00	15°C	14°C	20°C	-	100%	0.61kPa
12:00	15°C	14°C	19°C	-	100%	0.57kPa
13:00	15°C	15°C	19°C	-	100%	0.53kPa
14:00	15°C	15°C	19°C	-	100%	0.48kPa
15:00	15°C	15°C	18°C	-	100%	0.32kPa
16:00	15°C	15°C	16°C	-	100%	0.12kPa
17:00	15°C	15°C	16°C	-	100%	0.07kPa
18:00	15°C	15°C	15°C	-	100%	0.03kPa
19:00	15°C	15°C	15°C	-	100%	0.02kPa
20:00	15°C	14°C	15°C	-	100%	0.02kPa
21:00 ☾	14°C	14°C	14°C	-	100%	0.01kPa
22:00 ☾	14°C	14°C	14°C	-	100%	0.01kPa
23:00 ☾	14°C	14°C	14°C	-	100%	0.01kPa
Fri, Aug 28 Sunrise 06:10 Sunset 20:16
24:00 ☾	14°C	14°C	14°C	-	100%	0.01kPa
01:00 ☾	14°C	14°C	14°C	-	100%	0.01kPa
02:00 ☾	14°C	14°C	14°C	-	100%	0.02kPa
03:00 ☾	14°C	14°C	14°C	-	100%	0.03kPa
04:00 ☾	14°C	14°C	14°C	-	100%	0.03kPa
05:00 ☾	14°C	14°C	14°C	-	100%	0.04kPa
06:00 ☾	14°C	14°C	14°C	-	100%	0.04kPa
07:00	14°C	14°C	15°C	-	100%	0.05kPa
08:00	14°C	14°C	15°C	-	92%	0.11kPa
09:00	14°C	14°C	16°C	-	84%	0.18kPa
10:00	14°C	14°C	16°C	-	76%	0.26kPa
11:00	14°C	14°C	16°C	-	80%	0.22kPa
12:00	14°C	14°C	16°C	-	84%	0.18kPa
13:00	14°C	14°C	15°C	-	89%	0.15kPa
14:00	14°C	14°C	15°C	-	86%	0.1kPa

How to read: these inputs help produce the derived score; they are not requirements by themselves.

How this forecast is made

Opportunities are threshold-based signals: PhotoWeather checks whether forecast conditions match the rules for a photography scenario. They are planning guidance, not guarantees. Forecasts can change as new model runs arrive, and confidence generally decreases farther into the forecast horizon, so recheck conditions before travelling.

The weather forecast foundation comes through Open-Meteo , which aggregates models from weather agencies. PhotoWeather applies condition-specific thresholds and derived calculations; not every condition uses every model or data input.

How opportunities work → Weather data sources →

Forecast generated

Aug 25, 2026, 1:33 PM UTC

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