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Rule Morning Frost

Derwentwater - Morning Frost - Lake District

Penrith, England, United Kingdom

Frost crystals on calm, cold mornings near sunrise

No opportunities right now
Here’s what usually blocks matches

No Morning Frost opportunities in the next 14 days

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Rule requirements (key thresholds)
Time Window · Sunrise -45m to +90m Frost Probability · ≥ 60.0% Wind Speed · ≤ 1.5m/s

Tip: Scroll down to the 72-hour table to see exactly which condition fails hour by hour.

Most common blockers (next 72 hours)
Frost Probability 100% failing
Time Window 88% failing
Wind Speed 60% failing

Currently

Real-time conditions
Soil Temperature16.2°C
Dew Point18.1°C (high dew point)
Wind Speed3.6m/s (calm conditions)
Cloud Cover26%

Upcoming Opportunities

When all conditions match, PhotoWeather marks an opportunity window.

Times shown in Europe/London

No opportunities in the next 10 days

See the blocker timeline below to understand which conditions are preventing matches.

What this forecast looks for

Plain-language explanation from the rule

This forecast tracks the conditions that create the Lake District's enchanting frost photography opportunities. We combine temperature, dewpoint, wind, and humidity data to predict when hoar frost will transform England's most romantic landscapes into glittering winter scenes.

The Lake District's combination of lakes, tarns, and sheltered valleys creates ideal conditions for heavy frost formation. England's naturally high humidity combined with calm, cold nights produces thick hoar frost deposits that coat every surface. The region's intimate scale means frost-covered scenes retain the romantic quality that has drawn artists here for centuries.

What makes the Lake District special for frost photography:

  • Frozen tarns - Small tarns like Tarn Hows freeze solid, creating pristine ice skating scenes
  • Frosted fells - Grasses and bracken on fell sides become forests of ice crystals
  • Lake shore ice - Derwentwater and Windermere develop fascinating ice formations along their shores
  • Romantic compositions - Frost-covered stone walls, bare trees, and winter light evoke Wordsworth's poetry

Tarn Hows becomes a winter jewel when frozen and frost-covered—the small tarn surrounded by frosted woodland creates postcard-perfect scenes. Derwentwater's shores develop intricate ice patterns, particularly in sheltered bays like the view from Friars Crag. Higher tarns like Blea Tarn freeze reliably and hold frost longer, often remaining photogenic well into morning. Frosted bracken on the lower fells catches golden morning light beautifully. The key is arriving at dawn after clear, calm nights—our forecast identifies these conditions and predicts how long frost will persist after sunrise.

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72-hour requirements breakdown

What passed or failed, hour by hour
0matching hours in the next 95 hours
AND logic: all conditions required
Meets requirement
Misses requirement
Time
Europe/London
Time Window
Sunrise -45m to +90m
Frost Probability
≥ 60.0%
Wind Speed
≤ 1.5m/s
Tue, Jul 7
14:000%3.3m/s
15:000%5.4m/s
16:000%4.3m/s
17:000%3.5m/s
18:000%5m/s
19:000%4.3m/s
20:000%2.9m/s
21:000%2.6m/s
22:000%1.9m/s
23:000%1.5m/s
Wed, Jul 8
24:000%1.6m/s
01:000%1.3m/s
02:000%1.3m/s
03:000%1.2m/s
04:000%1.2m/s
05:000%1.1m/s
06:000%1.2m/s
07:000%1.2m/s
08:000%1.5m/s
09:000%2.2m/s
10:000%2.4m/s
11:000%2.9m/s
12:000%3.4m/s
13:000%3.6m/s
14:000%3.4m/s
15:000%3.6m/s
16:000%3.7m/s
17:000%3.5m/s
18:000%2.8m/s
19:000%2m/s
20:000%1.6m/s
21:000%1.2m/s
22:000%0.7m/s
23:000%0.36m/s
Thu, Jul 9
24:000%0.42m/s
01:000%0.91m/s
02:000%1.1m/s
03:000%1.1m/s
04:000%1.7m/s
05:000%2m/s
06:000%2.1m/s
07:000%1.7m/s
08:000%1.1m/s
09:000%0.8m/s
10:000%1.2m/s
11:000%1.8m/s
12:000%2m/s
13:000%2.7m/s
14:000%3.7m/s
15:000%3.8m/s
16:000%3.7m/s
17:000%3.4m/s
18:000%2.9m/s
19:000%2.4m/s
20:000%2m/s
21:000%2.1m/s
22:000%1.6m/s
23:000%0.89m/s
Fri, Jul 10
24:000%0.77m/s
01:000%0.67m/s
02:000%0.45m/s
03:000%0.53m/s
04:000%0.52m/s
05:000%1.1m/s
06:000%1.1m/s
07:000%1m/s
08:000%0.49m/s
09:000%0.87m/s
10:000%0.74m/s
11:000%0.96m/s
12:000%0.91m/s
13:000%1m/s
14:000%1.1m/s
15:000%0.93m/s
16:000%1.5m/s
17:000%2.4m/s
18:000%3.2m/s
19:000%3.3m/s
20:000%2.7m/s
21:000%2m/s
22:000%1.3m/s
23:000%1.5m/s
Sat, Jul 11
24:000%1.7m/s
01:000%1.9m/s
02:000%1.8m/s
03:000%1.7m/s
04:000%1.5m/s
05:000%1.8m/s
06:000%2m/s
07:000%2.2m/s
08:000%2.3m/s
09:000%2.4m/s
10:000%2.5m/s
11:000%2.5m/s
12:000%2.5m/s
How to read: colored cells show whether each predicate requirement is met; highlighted rows mean the full rule matched (an opportunity).

What does Frost Probability mean?

Inputs that drive the score

This derived score summarizes multiple raw weather signals. The table below shows the supporting inputs hour by hour, so you can see what's pushing the score up or down.

Time
Europe/London
Dew Point
°C
Surface Temperature
°C
Temperature
°C
Time Window
Total Cloud Coverage
%
Vapor Pressure Deficit
kPa
Wed, Jul 8 Sunrise 04:45 Sunset 21:45
15:00
18°C 16°C 24°C - 26% 0.84kPa
16:00
18°C 16°C 23°C - 30% 0.77kPa
17:00
17°C 17°C 22°C - 38% 0.71kPa
18:00
16°C 17°C 21°C - 36% 0.66kPa
19:00
16°C 17°C 21°C - 27% 0.59kPa
20:00
17°C 17°C 20°C - 26% 0.35kPa
21:00
16°C 17°C 17°C - 5% 0.18kPa
22:00
14°C 17°C 15°C - 12% 0.14kPa
23:00
14°C 16°C 15°C - 33% 0.12kPa
Thu, Jul 9 Sunrise 04:45 Sunset 21:45
24:00
13°C 16°C 14°C - 99% 0.11kPa
01:00
13°C 16°C 14°C - 40% 0.1kPa
02:00
13°C 16°C 14°C - 0% 0.1kPa
03:00
12°C 16°C 13°C - 0% 0.1kPa
04:00
12°C 16°C 13°C - 0% 0.09kPa
05:00
12°C 16°C 13°C - 1% 0.1kPa
06:00
13°C 15°C 14°C - 0% 0.12kPa
07:00
14°C 15°C 16°C - 0% 0.21kPa
08:00
14°C 15°C 17°C - 0% 0.37kPa
09:00
15°C 15°C 19°C - 0% 0.52kPa
10:00
15°C 16°C 20°C - 1% 0.63kPa
11:00
16°C 16°C 21°C - 19% 0.71kPa
12:00
16°C 16°C 22°C - 0% 0.86kPa
13:00
16°C 16°C 23°C - 0% 1kPa
14:00
16°C 16°C 23°C - 0% 1kPa
15:00
16°C 17°C 23°C - 2% 0.96kPa
16:00
16°C 17°C 23°C - 18% 0.9kPa
17:00
16°C 17°C 22°C - 96% 0.86kPa
18:00
16°C 17°C 21°C - 81% 0.78kPa
19:00
16°C 17°C 20°C - 99% 0.59kPa
20:00
17°C 17°C 19°C - 100% 0.34kPa
21:00
15°C 17°C 17°C - 100% 0.22kPa
22:00
14°C 17°C 15°C - 100% 0.16kPa
23:00
13°C 17°C 15°C - 68% 0.19kPa
Fri, Jul 10 Sunrise 04:47 Sunset 21:44
24:00
12°C 17°C 14°C - 100% 0.2kPa
01:00
12°C 17°C 14°C - 74% 0.21kPa
02:00
12°C 16°C 14°C - 0% 0.21kPa
03:00
12°C 16°C 14°C - 1% 0.21kPa
04:00
12°C 16°C 14°C - 54% 0.2kPa
05:00
12°C 16°C 14°C - 100% 0.2kPa
06:00
13°C 16°C 15°C - 100% 0.24kPa
07:00
14°C 16°C 17°C - 100% 0.34kPa
08:00
15°C 16°C 19°C - 99% 0.46kPa
09:00
16°C 16°C 20°C - 99% 0.63kPa
10:00
16°C 16°C 22°C - 13% 0.83kPa
11:00
17°C 16°C 24°C - 65% 1.1kPa
12:00
17°C 17°C 25°C - 50% 1.2kPa
13:00
17°C 17°C 25°C - 33% 1.3kPa
14:00
17°C 17°C 26°C - 7% 1.4kPa
15:00
17°C 17°C 26°C - 12% 1.5kPa
16:00
17°C 18°C 26°C - 10% 1.5kPa
17:00
17°C 18°C 26°C - 93% 1.4kPa
18:00
18°C 18°C 25°C - 100% 1.1kPa
19:00
19°C 18°C 23°C - 100% 0.65kPa
20:00
18°C 18°C 21°C - 100% 0.44kPa
21:00
16°C 18°C 18°C - 100% 0.27kPa
22:00
15°C 18°C 16°C - 100% 0.14kPa
23:00
15°C 17°C 16°C - 100% 0.13kPa
Sat, Jul 11 Sunrise 04:48 Sunset 21:43
24:00
15°C 17°C 16°C - 100% 0.12kPa
01:00
15°C 17°C 16°C - 100% 0.11kPa
02:00
15°C 17°C 16°C - 100% 0.15kPa
03:00
15°C 17°C 17°C - 99% 0.19kPa
04:00
16°C 17°C 18°C - 98% 0.24kPa
05:00
16°C 17°C 18°C - 99% 0.32kPa
06:00
16°C 17°C 19°C - 100% 0.4kPa
07:00
16°C 17°C 20°C - 100% 0.49kPa
08:00
16°C 17°C 19°C - 100% 0.43kPa
09:00
16°C 17°C 19°C - 100% 0.37kPa
10:00
15°C 17°C 18°C - 100% 0.31kPa
11:00
15°C 17°C 18°C - 84% 0.29kPa
12:00
15°C 17°C 17°C - 67% 0.26kPa
13:00
15°C 17°C 17°C - 51% 0.24kPa
14:00
14°C 17°C 16°C - 52% 0.18kPa
How to read: these inputs help produce the derived score; they are not requirements by themselves.

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