Rule Morning Frost

Morning Frost Forecast for Buttermere, Lake District

Workington, England, United Kingdom

Buttermere frames a narrow reflective lake between steep fells, with shoreline trees, scree fans and Fleetwith Pike forming strong symmetrical layers.

Currently

Real-time conditions

Frost Probability

Soil Temperature9725.9°C

Dew Point10.9°C (moderate dew point)

Wind Speed2.6m/s (calm conditions)

Cloud Cover100%

Upcoming Opportunities

When all conditions match, PhotoWeather marks an opportunity window.

Times shown in Europe/London

No opportunities in the next 14 days

See which requirements block the most forecast hours below.

Most common blockers (79-hour forecast)

Frost Probability100% of hours
Wind Speed100% of hours
Time Window88% of hours

How this forecast is evaluated

See which weather signals PhotoWeather uses to identify Morning Frost conditions across Lake District. The requirements and hourly values below show how those signals apply at Buttermere.

Explore Morning Frost conditions across Lake District →

Recorded match history

Completed PhotoWeather forecast matches recorded for this exact rule at Buttermere during the last 365 days.

Last 30 days

recorded matching windows

Last 90 days

recorded matching windows

Last 365 days

recorded matching windows

These figures use completed PhotoWeather MatchEvent records from the previous 365 days only. They describe recorded forecast matches, not observations, climatological probability, or a guarantee of future conditions.

Create your own Morning Frost alerts

Get notified when these conditions match at your own locations.

Get this template

79-hour requirements breakdown

When available, the detailed table below covers only the stated 79-hour horizon (typically 72–168 hours, depending on available hourly data). Opportunity records above span the next 14 days, so this table does not explain that entire 14-day period.

What passed or failed, hour by hour

0matching hours in the next 79 hours

AND logic: all conditions required

Meets requirement

Misses requirement

Time Europe/London	Time Window Sunrise -45m to +90m	Frost Probability ≥ 60.0%	Wind Speed ≤ 1.5m/s
Tue, Aug 25
06:00	✓	0%	5.1m/s
07:00	✓	0%	5.6m/s
08:00	✕	0%	5.7m/s
09:00	✕	0%	6m/s
10:00	✕	0%	5.9m/s
11:00	✕	0%	5.1m/s
12:00	✕	0%	3.7m/s
13:00	✕	0%	2.5m/s
14:00	✕	0%	2.3m/s
15:00	✕	0%	2.6m/s
16:00	✕	0%	2.6m/s
17:00	✕	0%	4.1m/s
18:00	✕	0%	4.2m/s
19:00	✕	0%	5m/s
20:00	✕	0%	6.1m/s
21:00	✕	0%	7.5m/s
22:00	✕	0%	7.7m/s
23:00	✕	0%	7.6m/s
Wed, Aug 26
24:00	✕	0%	8m/s
01:00	✕	0%	7.2m/s
02:00	✕	0%	6.8m/s
03:00	✕	0%	7m/s
04:00	✕	0%	7.4m/s
05:00	✓	0%	7.9m/s
06:00	✓	0%	7.9m/s
07:00	✓	0%	7.7m/s
08:00	✕	0%	7.4m/s
09:00	✕	0%	6.9m/s
10:00	✕	0%	6.4m/s
11:00	✕	0%	5.4m/s
12:00	✕	0%	6.1m/s
13:00	✕	0%	6.2m/s
14:00	✕	0%	5.7m/s
15:00	✕	0%	5.6m/s
16:00	✕	0%	5.2m/s
17:00	✕	0%	5.5m/s
18:00	✕	0%	4.7m/s
19:00	✕	0%	4.4m/s
20:00	✕	0%	4.5m/s
21:00	✕	0%	5.3m/s
22:00	✕	0%	5.9m/s
23:00	✕	0%	6.4m/s
Thu, Aug 27
24:00	✕	0%	6.4m/s
01:00	✕	0%	6.4m/s
02:00	✕	0%	6.3m/s
03:00	✕	0%	5.3m/s
04:00	✕	0%	5.3m/s
05:00	✓	0%	5.5m/s
06:00	✓	0%	5.6m/s
07:00	✓	0%	6.4m/s
08:00	✕	0%	6.2m/s
09:00	✕	0%	6.3m/s
10:00	✕	0%	6.4m/s
11:00	✕	0%	6.6m/s
12:00	✕	0%	5.5m/s
13:00	✕	0%	3.5m/s
14:00	✕	0%	1.8m/s
15:00	✕	0%	3.2m/s
16:00	✕	0%	5.5m/s
17:00	✕	0%	2.6m/s
18:00	✕	0%	2.4m/s
19:00	✕	0%	3.1m/s
20:00	✕	0%	3.1m/s
21:00	✕	0%	3.2m/s
22:00	✕	0%	3.2m/s
23:00	✕	0%	4m/s
Fri, Aug 28
24:00	✕	0%	4.7m/s
01:00	✕	0%	5.5m/s
02:00	✕	0%	4.7m/s
03:00	✕	0%	3.9m/s
04:00	✕	0%	3.1m/s
05:00	✓	0%	3.1m/s
06:00	✓	0%	3m/s
07:00	✓	0%	2.9m/s
08:00	✕	0%	2.9m/s
09:00	✕	0%	2.8m/s
10:00	✕	0%	2.7m/s
11:00	✕	0%	3.1m/s
12:00	✕	0%	3.5m/s

How to read: colored cells show whether each predicate requirement is met; highlighted rows mean the full rule matched (an opportunity).

What does Frost Probability mean?

Inputs that drive the score

This derived score summarizes multiple raw weather signals. The table below shows the supporting inputs hour by hour, so you can see what's pushing the score up or down.

Time Europe/London	Dew Point °C	Surface Temperature °C	Temperature °C	Time Window	Total Cloud Coverage %	Vapor Pressure Deficit kPa
Tue, Aug 25 Sunrise 06:08 Sunset 20:22
15:00	11°C	9726°C	19°C	-	100%	0.88kPa
16:00	12°C	9726°C	19°C	-	100%	0.9kPa
17:00	12°C	9726°C	20°C	-	100%	0.96kPa
18:00	12°C	9726°C	20°C	-	85%	0.84kPa
19:00	13°C	9726°C	19°C	-	58%	0.73kPa
20:00	12°C	9726°C	18°C	-	88%	0.58kPa
21:00 ☾	12°C	9726°C	16°C	-	97%	0.43kPa
22:00 ☾	11°C	9726°C	15°C	-	86%	0.37kPa
23:00 ☾	12°C	9726°C	15°C	-	100%	0.32kPa
Wed, Aug 26 Sunrise 06:08 Sunset 20:22
24:00 ☾	12°C	9726°C	15°C	-	100%	0.25kPa
01:00 ☾	12°C	9726°C	15°C	-	100%	0.26kPa
02:00 ☾	12°C	9726°C	15°C	-	85%	0.25kPa
03:00 ☾	12°C	9726°C	15°C	-	97%	0.24kPa
04:00 ☾	12°C	9726°C	15°C	-	89%	0.25kPa
05:00 ☾	12°C	9726°C	15°C	-	100%	0.24kPa
06:00 ☾	12°C	9726°C	15°C	-	100%	0.22kPa
07:00	13°C	9726°C	15°C	-	100%	0.23kPa
08:00	13°C	9726°C	16°C	-	100%	0.28kPa
09:00	14°C	9726°C	17°C	-	100%	0.36kPa
10:00	14°C	9726°C	18°C	-	100%	0.52kPa
11:00	14°C	9726°C	19°C	-	100%	0.62kPa
12:00	14°C	9726°C	19°C	-	100%	0.59kPa
13:00	15°C	9726°C	18°C	-	100%	0.38kPa
14:00	15°C	9726°C	18°C	-	100%	0.35kPa
15:00	15°C	9726°C	17°C	-	100%	0.29kPa
16:00	15°C	9726°C	17°C	-	100%	0.26kPa
17:00	15°C	9726°C	18°C	-	100%	0.29kPa
18:00	16°C	9726°C	17°C	-	100%	0.21kPa
19:00	16°C	9726°C	17°C	-	100%	0.21kPa
20:00	16°C	9726°C	17°C	-	100%	0.17kPa
21:00 ☾	15°C	9726°C	17°C	-	98%	0.16kPa
22:00 ☾	15°C	9726°C	16°C	-	100%	0.18kPa
23:00 ☾	14°C	9726°C	16°C	-	81%	0.18kPa
Thu, Aug 27 Sunrise 06:10 Sunset 20:20
24:00 ☾	14°C	9726°C	16°C	-	91%	0.2kPa
01:00 ☾	14°C	9726°C	16°C	-	61%	0.2kPa
02:00 ☾	14°C	9726°C	16°C	-	5%	0.2kPa
03:00 ☾	14°C	9726°C	16°C	-	5%	0.2kPa
04:00 ☾	14°C	9726°C	15°C	-	5%	0.2kPa
05:00 ☾	14°C	9726°C	15°C	-	69%	0.2kPa
06:00 ☾	14°C	9726°C	15°C	-	100%	0.2kPa
07:00	14°C	9726°C	15°C	-	45%	0.19kPa
08:00	14°C	9726°C	16°C	-	100%	0.2kPa
09:00	15°C	9726°C	16°C	-	100%	0.22kPa
10:00	15°C	9726°C	17°C	-	100%	0.26kPa
11:00	16°C	9726°C	18°C	-	100%	0.33kPa
12:00	16°C	9726°C	19°C	-	100%	0.35kPa
13:00	16°C	9726°C	18°C	-	100%	0.28kPa
14:00	16°C	9726°C	19°C	-	100%	0.31kPa
15:00	16°C	9726°C	18°C	-	100%	0.32kPa
16:00	16°C	9726°C	17°C	-	100%	0.14kPa
17:00	16°C	9726°C	17°C	-	100%	0.1kPa
18:00	16°C	9726°C	17°C	-	100%	0.09kPa
19:00	16°C	9726°C	17°C	-	100%	0.07kPa
20:00	16°C	6489°C	16°C	-	100%	0.06kPa
21:00 ☾	15°C	3252°C	16°C	-	100%	0.04kPa
22:00 ☾	15°C	15°C	15°C	-	100%	0.03kPa
23:00 ☾	15°C	15°C	15°C	-	100%	0.04kPa
Fri, Aug 28 Sunrise 06:12 Sunset 20:17
24:00 ☾	15°C	15°C	15°C	-	100%	0.04kPa
01:00 ☾	15°C	15°C	15°C	-	100%	0.05kPa
02:00 ☾	15°C	15°C	15°C	-	100%	0.04kPa
03:00 ☾	15°C	15°C	15°C	-	100%	0.04kPa
04:00 ☾	15°C	15°C	15°C	-	100%	0.04kPa
05:00 ☾	15°C	15°C	15°C	-	100%	0.05kPa
06:00 ☾	15°C	15°C	15°C	-	100%	0.07kPa
07:00	15°C	15°C	15°C	-	100%	0.08kPa
08:00	15°C	15°C	16°C	-	99%	0.1kPa
09:00	15°C	15°C	16°C	-	98%	0.12kPa
10:00	15°C	15°C	16°C	-	97%	0.14kPa
11:00	15°C	15°C	16°C	-	98%	0.13kPa
12:00	15°C	15°C	16°C	-	99%	0.12kPa
13:00	15°C	15°C	16°C	-	100%	0.11kPa
14:00	15°C	15°C	16°C	-	100%	0.11kPa

How to read: these inputs help produce the derived score; they are not requirements by themselves.

How this forecast is made

Opportunities are threshold-based signals: PhotoWeather checks whether forecast conditions match the rules for a photography scenario. They are planning guidance, not guarantees. Forecasts can change as new model runs arrive, and confidence generally decreases farther into the forecast horizon, so recheck conditions before travelling.

The weather forecast foundation comes through Open-Meteo , which aggregates models from weather agencies. PhotoWeather applies condition-specific thresholds and derived calculations; not every condition uses every model or data input.

How opportunities work → Weather data sources →

Forecast generated

Aug 25, 2026, 1:33 PM UTC

Get Notified of Opportunities

Create your own custom alerts for this location and more.

Create Free Account