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Rule Morning Frost

Blea Tarn - Morning Frost - Lake District

Chapel Stile, England, United Kingdom

Frost crystals on calm, cold mornings near sunrise

No opportunities right now
Here’s what usually blocks matches

No Morning Frost opportunities in the next 14 days

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Rule requirements (key thresholds)
Time Window · Sunrise -45m to +90m Frost Probability · ≥ 60.0% Wind Speed · ≤ 1.5m/s

Tip: Scroll down to the 72-hour table to see exactly which condition fails hour by hour.

Most common blockers (next 72 hours)
Frost Probability 100% failing
Wind Speed 94% failing
Time Window 83% failing

Currently

Real-time conditions
Soil Temperature9.8°C
Dew Point9.5°C (moderate dew point)
Wind Speed3.0m/s (calm conditions)
Cloud Cover100%

Upcoming Opportunities

When all conditions match, PhotoWeather marks an opportunity window.

Times shown in Europe/London

No opportunities in the next 10 days

See the blocker timeline below to understand which conditions are preventing matches.

What this forecast looks for

Plain-language explanation from the rule

This forecast tracks the conditions that create the Lake District's enchanting frost photography opportunities. We combine temperature, dewpoint, wind, and humidity data to predict when hoar frost will transform England's most romantic landscapes into glittering winter scenes.

The Lake District's combination of lakes, tarns, and sheltered valleys creates ideal conditions for heavy frost formation. England's naturally high humidity combined with calm, cold nights produces thick hoar frost deposits that coat every surface. The region's intimate scale means frost-covered scenes retain the romantic quality that has drawn artists here for centuries.

What makes the Lake District special for frost photography:

  • Frozen tarns - Small tarns like Tarn Hows freeze solid, creating pristine ice skating scenes
  • Frosted fells - Grasses and bracken on fell sides become forests of ice crystals
  • Lake shore ice - Derwentwater and Windermere develop fascinating ice formations along their shores
  • Romantic compositions - Frost-covered stone walls, bare trees, and winter light evoke Wordsworth's poetry

Tarn Hows becomes a winter jewel when frozen and frost-covered—the small tarn surrounded by frosted woodland creates postcard-perfect scenes. Derwentwater's shores develop intricate ice patterns, particularly in sheltered bays like the view from Friars Crag. Higher tarns like Blea Tarn freeze reliably and hold frost longer, often remaining photogenic well into morning. Frosted bracken on the lower fells catches golden morning light beautifully. The key is arriving at dawn after clear, calm nights—our forecast identifies these conditions and predicts how long frost will persist after sunrise.

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72-hour requirements breakdown

What passed or failed, hour by hour
0matching hours in the next 95 hours
AND logic: all conditions required
Meets requirement
Misses requirement
Time
Europe/London
Time Window
Sunrise -45m to +90m
Frost Probability
≥ 60.0%
Wind Speed
≤ 1.5m/s
Sun, Jun 7
03:000%2.2m/s
04:000%2.6m/s
05:000%3m/s
06:000%2.8m/s
07:000%3.5m/s
08:000%4.8m/s
09:000%5.2m/s
10:000%5.1m/s
11:000%5.6m/s
12:000%6.7m/s
13:000%10m/s
14:000%11m/s
15:000%7.5m/s
16:000%5.4m/s
17:000%6.4m/s
18:000%6.6m/s
19:000%7m/s
20:000%6.8m/s
21:000%6.5m/s
22:000%6.6m/s
23:000%6.8m/s
Mon, Jun 8
24:000%6.9m/s
01:000%6.2m/s
02:000%6.5m/s
03:000%3m/s
04:000%1.9m/s
05:000%2.1m/s
06:000%2.1m/s
07:000%2m/s
08:000%2.4m/s
09:000%2.4m/s
10:000%3m/s
11:000%5.3m/s
12:000%5.8m/s
13:000%5.7m/s
14:000%6.2m/s
15:000%6.4m/s
16:000%5.8m/s
17:000%5.3m/s
18:000%5.5m/s
19:000%4m/s
20:000%2.7m/s
21:000%2.6m/s
22:000%2.5m/s
23:000%2.4m/s
Tue, Jun 9
24:000%2.5m/s
01:000%2.4m/s
02:000%2.3m/s
03:000%2.4m/s
04:000%2.7m/s
05:000%3.5m/s
06:000%3.3m/s
07:000%3.6m/s
08:000%4.6m/s
09:000%6.7m/s
10:000%6.7m/s
11:000%4.3m/s
12:000%6.4m/s
13:000%8.5m/s
14:000%8.6m/s
15:000%8.7m/s
16:000%9.5m/s
17:000%8.8m/s
18:000%7.5m/s
19:000%5.8m/s
20:000%3.5m/s
21:000%1.7m/s
22:000%1.5m/s
23:000%1.5m/s
Wed, Jun 10
24:000%1.6m/s
01:000%1.7m/s
02:000%1.9m/s
03:000%1.7m/s
04:000%1.6m/s
05:001.4%1.5m/s
06:001.8%1.4m/s
07:002.1%1.6m/s
08:001.6%1.9m/s
09:002%1.7m/s
10:002.8%4.4m/s
11:001.7%3.9m/s
12:000%5.4m/s
13:000%6.6m/s
14:000%5m/s
15:000%3.3m/s
16:000%1.7m/s
17:000%1.6m/s
18:000%1.5m/s
19:000%1.5m/s
20:000%1.8m/s
21:001.2%2.1m/s
22:001.2%2.4m/s
23:001.2%2.6m/s
Thu, Jun 11
24:001%2.9m/s
01:001%3.1m/s
How to read: colored cells show whether each predicate requirement is met; highlighted rows mean the full rule matched (an opportunity).

What does Frost Probability mean?

Inputs that drive the score

This derived score summarizes multiple raw weather signals. The table below shows the supporting inputs hour by hour, so you can see what's pushing the score up or down.

Time
Europe/London
Dew Point
°C
Surface Temperature
°C
Temperature
°C
Time Window
Total Cloud Coverage
%
Vapor Pressure Deficit
kPa
Mon, Jun 8 Sunrise 04:39 Sunset 21:43
03:00
9.5°C 9.8°C 9.7°C - 100% 0.02kPa
04:00
8.5°C 9.9°C 9.1°C - 100% 0.05kPa
05:00
8°C 9.8°C 8.5°C - 100% 0.04kPa
06:00
7.7°C 9.7°C 8.2°C - 100% 0.03kPa
07:00
7.5°C 9.6°C 8.5°C - 70% 0.08kPa
08:00
6.4°C 9.6°C 9.2°C - 100% 0.2kPa
09:00
6°C 9.6°C 9.5°C - 25% 0.26kPa
10:00
6°C 9.7°C 10°C - 14% 0.32kPa
11:00
6°C 9.8°C 11°C - 9% 0.36kPa
12:00
5.4°C 9.9°C 11°C - 5% 0.4kPa
13:00
4.9°C 10°C 11°C - 5% 0.46kPa
14:00
4.5°C 10°C 11°C - 5% 0.47kPa
15:00
4.8°C 10°C 11°C - 5% 0.46kPa
16:00
4.9°C 10°C 11°C - 5% 0.46kPa
17:00
5.1°C 10°C 11°C - 5% 0.43kPa
18:00
5.8°C 10°C 10°C - 5% 0.34kPa
19:00
6.1°C 10°C 9.8°C - 6% 0.27kPa
20:00
6.5°C 10°C 9.3°C - 5% 0.2kPa
21:00
6.1°C 10°C 7.6°C - 59% 0.11kPa
22:00
5.3°C 10°C 6.4°C - 93% 0.06kPa
23:00
5.2°C 9.7°C 6.2°C - 65% 0.06kPa
Tue, Jun 9 Sunrise 04:39 Sunset 21:43
24:00
5.3°C 9.6°C 6.4°C - 76% 0.07kPa
01:00
5.1°C 9.4°C 6°C - 52% 0.06kPa
02:00
5.2°C 9.2°C 5.9°C - 77% 0.04kPa
03:00
5.2°C 9.1°C 5.6°C - 100% 0.03kPa
04:00
6°C 8.9°C 7°C - 100% 0.07kPa
05:00
5.9°C 8.8°C 7.2°C - 30% 0.09kPa
06:00
5.4°C 8.8°C 6.5°C - 36% 0.07kPa
07:00
5.6°C 8.7°C 7.2°C - 27% 0.1kPa
08:00
5.9°C 8.7°C 7.9°C - 85% 0.14kPa
09:00
6.3°C 8.7°C 7.9°C - 100% 0.11kPa
10:00
5.7°C 8.5°C 7.7°C - 100% 0.14kPa
11:00
6°C 8.6°C 7.2°C - 100% 0.08kPa
12:00
6.6°C 8.5°C 7.8°C - 97% 0.08kPa
13:00
7.2°C 8.6°C 8.8°C - 100% 0.12kPa
14:00
7.3°C 8.6°C 8.9°C - 97% 0.12kPa
15:00
7.5°C 8.6°C 9.1°C - 22% 0.12kPa
16:00
6.9°C 8.7°C 10°C - 4% 0.24kPa
17:00
6.2°C 8.8°C 10°C - 5% 0.32kPa
18:00
6°C 8.9°C 10°C - 9% 0.32kPa
19:00
6.2°C 9°C 9.9°C - 5% 0.27kPa
20:00
5.8°C 9°C 9°C - 100% 0.23kPa
21:00
5.1°C 8.9°C 7.4°C - 99% 0.15kPa
22:00
4.6°C 8.8°C 6.2°C - 100% 0.1kPa
23:00
4.5°C 8.6°C 5.9°C - 99% 0.09kPa
Wed, Jun 10 Sunrise 04:38 Sunset 21:44
24:00
4.7°C 8.5°C 6.2°C - 91% 0.09kPa
01:00
4.8°C 8.3°C 5.9°C - 98% 0.07kPa
02:00
5.4°C 8.2°C 6.6°C - 100% 0.08kPa
03:00
5.9°C 8.2°C 6.6°C - 100% 0.04kPa
04:00
6°C 8.1°C 6.6°C - 100% 0.04kPa
05:00
5.6°C 8°C 6.4°C - 100% 0.05kPa
06:00
5.6°C 8°C 6.7°C - 100% 0.07kPa
07:00
5.5°C 7.9°C 7.3°C - 100% 0.12kPa
08:00
5.7°C 7.9°C 7.2°C - 100% 0.09kPa
09:00
5.7°C 7.9°C 7.3°C - 77% 0.11kPa
10:00
5.7°C 8°C 8.8°C - 100% 0.21kPa
11:00
5.8°C 8°C 8.1°C - 99% 0.16kPa
12:00
6.1°C 8.1°C 9.2°C - 98% 0.22kPa
13:00
6.7°C 8.2°C 10°C - 99% 0.24kPa
14:00
6.2°C 8.4°C 8.7°C - 68% 0.18kPa
15:00
5.7°C 8.6°C 7.5°C - 36% 0.12kPa
16:00
5.1°C 8.8°C 6.2°C - 5% 0.07kPa
17:00
4.9°C 8.6°C 5.9°C - 37% 0.06kPa
18:00
4.6°C 8.4°C 5.5°C - 68% 0.06kPa
19:00
4.3°C 8.2°C 5.2°C - 100% 0.05kPa
20:00
4.5°C 8°C 5.3°C - 100% 0.05kPa
21:00
4.7°C 7.9°C 5.5°C - 100% 0.05kPa
22:00
4.9°C 7.8°C 5.6°C - 100% 0.05kPa
23:00
5.6°C 7.7°C 6.3°C - 100% 0.04kPa
Thu, Jun 11 Sunrise 04:38 Sunset 21:45
24:00
6.4°C 7.6°C 6.9°C - 100% 0.03kPa
01:00
7.2°C 7.6°C 7.5°C - 100% 0.02kPa
02:00
7.6°C 7.6°C 7.8°C - 100% 0.02kPa
How to read: these inputs help produce the derived score; they are not requirements by themselves.

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