Rule Morning Frost

Morning Frost Forecast for Blea Tarn, Lake District

Chapel Stile, England, United Kingdom

Blea Tarn frames the Langdale Pikes beyond reeds, water and a distinctive shoreline pine, with reflections strongest during calm, sheltered conditions.

Currently

Real-time conditions

Frost Probability

Soil Temperature12.6°C

Dew Point9.3°C (moderate dew point)

Wind Speed6.5m/s (moderate winds)

Cloud Cover100%

Upcoming Opportunities

When all conditions match, PhotoWeather marks an opportunity window.

Times shown in Europe/London

No opportunities in the next 14 days

See which requirements block the most forecast hours below.

Most common blockers (80-hour forecast)

Frost Probability100% of hours
Wind Speed94% of hours
Time Window88% of hours

How this forecast is evaluated

See which weather signals PhotoWeather uses to identify Morning Frost conditions across Lake District. The requirements and hourly values below show how those signals apply at Blea Tarn.

Explore Morning Frost conditions across Lake District →

Recorded match history

Completed PhotoWeather forecast matches recorded for this exact rule at Blea Tarn during the last 365 days.

Last 30 days

recorded matching windows

Last 90 days

recorded matching windows

Last 365 days

recorded matching windows · 59% average confidence

Only 3 completed matches are recorded in the last 365 days—insufficient history to identify a reliable typical start time or month.

These figures use completed PhotoWeather MatchEvent records from the previous 365 days only. They describe recorded forecast matches, not observations, climatological probability, or a guarantee of future conditions.

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80-hour requirements breakdown

When available, the detailed table below covers only the stated 80-hour horizon (typically 72–168 hours, depending on available hourly data). Opportunity records above span the next 14 days, so this table does not explain that entire 14-day period.

What passed or failed, hour by hour

0matching hours in the next 80 hours

AND logic: all conditions required

Meets requirement

Misses requirement

Time Europe/London	Time Window Sunrise -45m to +90m	Frost Probability ≥ 60.0%	Wind Speed ≤ 1.5m/s
Tue, Aug 25
06:00	✓	0%	1.3m/s
07:00	✓	0%	1.9m/s
08:00	✕	0%	2.5m/s
09:00	✕	0%	2.8m/s
10:00	✕	0%	3.3m/s
11:00	✕	0%	3.7m/s
12:00	✕	0%	5.4m/s
13:00	✕	0%	6m/s
14:00	✕	0%	6.5m/s
15:00	✕	0%	6.5m/s
16:00	✕	0%	6.6m/s
17:00	✕	0%	6.2m/s
18:00	✕	0%	5.8m/s
19:00	✕	0%	5.1m/s
20:00	✕	0%	4.1m/s
21:00	✕	0%	3.4m/s
22:00	✕	0%	2.7m/s
23:00	✕	0%	2.3m/s
Wed, Aug 26
24:00	✕	0%	2.3m/s
01:00	✕	0%	2.2m/s
02:00	✕	0%	2m/s
03:00	✕	0%	2m/s
04:00	✕	0%	2m/s
05:00	✓	0%	2.4m/s
06:00	✓	0%	2.5m/s
07:00	✓	0%	2.5m/s
08:00	✕	0%	2.2m/s
09:00	✕	0%	2.3m/s
10:00	✕	0%	2.6m/s
11:00	✕	0%	3.6m/s
12:00	✕	0%	4.1m/s
13:00	✕	0%	4.1m/s
14:00	✕	0%	3.6m/s
15:00	✕	0%	3.1m/s
16:00	✕	0%	2.4m/s
17:00	✕	0%	2.1m/s
18:00	✕	0%	2.4m/s
19:00	✕	0%	2.4m/s
20:00	✕	0%	2.1m/s
21:00	✕	0%	1.9m/s
22:00	✕	0%	1.5m/s
23:00	✕	0%	1.7m/s
Thu, Aug 27
24:00	✕	0%	1.7m/s
01:00	✕	0%	1.7m/s
02:00	✕	0%	1.8m/s
03:00	✕	0%	1.6m/s
04:00	✕	0%	1.7m/s
05:00	✓	0%	1.8m/s
06:00	✓	0%	1.6m/s
07:00	✓	0%	1.6m/s
08:00	✕	0%	1.6m/s
09:00	✕	0%	1.7m/s
10:00	✕	0%	1.8m/s
11:00	✕	0%	1.8m/s
12:00	✕	0%	1.8m/s
13:00	✕	0%	1.8m/s
14:00	✕	0%	2.1m/s
15:00	✕	0%	1.8m/s
16:00	✕	0%	0.6m/s
17:00	✕	0%	1.4m/s
18:00	✕	0%	2.2m/s
19:00	✕	0%	2.2m/s
20:00	✕	0%	2.3m/s
21:00	✕	0%	2.5m/s
22:00	✕	0%	2.6m/s
23:00	✕	0%	2.6m/s
Fri, Aug 28
24:00	✕	0%	2.7m/s
01:00	✕	0%	2.7m/s
02:00	✕	0%	2.8m/s
03:00	✕	0%	2.8m/s
04:00	✕	0%	2.9m/s
05:00	✓	0%	2.4m/s
06:00	✓	0%	2m/s
07:00	✓	0%	1.5m/s
08:00	✕	0%	1.7m/s
09:00	✕	0%	2m/s
10:00	✕	0%	2.2m/s
11:00	✕	0%	2.2m/s
12:00	✕	0%	2.3m/s
13:00	✕	0%	2.3m/s

How to read: colored cells show whether each predicate requirement is met; highlighted rows mean the full rule matched (an opportunity).

What does Frost Probability mean?

Inputs that drive the score

This derived score summarizes multiple raw weather signals. The table below shows the supporting inputs hour by hour, so you can see what's pushing the score up or down.

Time Europe/London	Dew Point °C	Surface Temperature °C	Temperature °C	Time Window	Total Cloud Coverage %	Vapor Pressure Deficit kPa
Tue, Aug 25 Sunrise 06:07 Sunset 20:20
15:00	9.3°C	13°C	18°C	-	100%	0.87kPa
16:00	9.6°C	13°C	18°C	-	100%	0.8kPa
17:00	10°C	13°C	17°C	-	82%	0.72kPa
18:00	11°C	13°C	16°C	-	42%	0.58kPa
19:00	10°C	13°C	15°C	-	51%	0.5kPa
20:00	9.8°C	13°C	14°C	-	83%	0.35kPa
21:00 ☾	10°C	13°C	12°C	-	90%	0.17kPa
22:00 ☾	9.7°C	13°C	11°C	-	71%	0.1kPa
23:00 ☾	9.7°C	13°C	10°C	-	100%	0.06kPa
Wed, Aug 26 Sunrise 06:07 Sunset 20:20
24:00 ☾	11°C	13°C	11°C	-	100%	0.07kPa
01:00 ☾	11°C	13°C	12°C	-	100%	0.1kPa
02:00 ☾	10°C	12°C	11°C	-	46%	0.08kPa
03:00 ☾	9.4°C	12°C	10°C	-	95%	0.06kPa
04:00 ☾	9.7°C	12°C	10°C	-	100%	0.07kPa
05:00 ☾	9.8°C	12°C	11°C	-	100%	0.06kPa
06:00 ☾	10°C	12°C	11°C	-	100%	0.05kPa
07:00	11°C	12°C	12°C	-	100%	0.05kPa
08:00	12°C	12°C	13°C	-	100%	0.14kPa
09:00	13°C	12°C	15°C	-	100%	0.3kPa
10:00	13°C	12°C	16°C	-	100%	0.36kPa
11:00	14°C	12°C	16°C	-	100%	0.28kPa
12:00	14°C	12°C	15°C	-	100%	0.14kPa
13:00	14°C	13°C	15°C	-	100%	0.11kPa
14:00	14°C	13°C	15°C	-	100%	0.09kPa
15:00	14°C	13°C	15°C	-	100%	0.1kPa
16:00	14°C	13°C	15°C	-	100%	0.12kPa
17:00	14°C	13°C	15°C	-	100%	0.07kPa
18:00	14°C	13°C	15°C	-	100%	0.08kPa
19:00	14°C	13°C	15°C	-	100%	0.08kPa
20:00	14°C	13°C	15°C	-	94%	0.1kPa
21:00 ☾	13°C	13°C	14°C	-	99%	0.1kPa
22:00 ☾	13°C	13°C	14°C	-	91%	0.09kPa
23:00 ☾	12°C	13°C	13°C	-	80%	0.07kPa
Thu, Aug 27 Sunrise 06:08 Sunset 20:17
24:00 ☾	12°C	13°C	12°C	-	53%	0.06kPa
01:00 ☾	12°C	13°C	12°C	-	13%	0.06kPa
02:00 ☾	12°C	13°C	12°C	-	6%	0.05kPa
03:00 ☾	11°C	13°C	12°C	-	6%	0.05kPa
04:00 ☾	11°C	12°C	12°C	-	55%	0.06kPa
05:00 ☾	11°C	12°C	12°C	-	100%	0.07kPa
06:00 ☾	11°C	12°C	12°C	-	100%	0.07kPa
07:00	12°C	12°C	13°C	-	84%	0.08kPa
08:00	13°C	12°C	15°C	-	100%	0.13kPa
09:00	14°C	12°C	16°C	-	100%	0.24kPa
10:00	14°C	13°C	18°C	-	100%	0.36kPa
11:00	15°C	13°C	18°C	-	100%	0.44kPa
12:00	15°C	13°C	19°C	-	100%	0.43kPa
13:00	15°C	14°C	19°C	-	100%	0.44kPa
14:00	15°C	14°C	19°C	-	100%	0.45kPa
15:00	15°C	14°C	17°C	-	100%	0.25kPa
16:00	15°C	14°C	16°C	-	100%	0.1kPa
17:00	15°C	14°C	15°C	-	100%	0.05kPa
18:00	15°C	14°C	15°C	-	100%	0.04kPa
19:00	15°C	14°C	15°C	-	100%	0.02kPa
20:00	14°C	14°C	15°C	-	100%	0.02kPa
21:00 ☾	14°C	14°C	14°C	-	100%	0.01kPa
22:00 ☾	14°C	14°C	14°C	-	100%	0.01kPa
23:00 ☾	14°C	14°C	14°C	-	100%	0.01kPa
Fri, Aug 28 Sunrise 06:10 Sunset 20:15
24:00 ☾	14°C	14°C	14°C	-	100%	0.01kPa
01:00 ☾	14°C	14°C	14°C	-	100%	0.01kPa
02:00 ☾	14°C	14°C	14°C	-	100%	0.02kPa
03:00 ☾	14°C	14°C	14°C	-	100%	0.03kPa
04:00 ☾	14°C	14°C	14°C	-	100%	0.03kPa
05:00 ☾	14°C	14°C	14°C	-	100%	0.04kPa
06:00 ☾	14°C	14°C	14°C	-	100%	0.04kPa
07:00	14°C	14°C	15°C	-	100%	0.05kPa
08:00	14°C	14°C	15°C	-	92%	0.11kPa
09:00	14°C	14°C	16°C	-	84%	0.18kPa
10:00	14°C	14°C	16°C	-	76%	0.26kPa
11:00	14°C	14°C	16°C	-	80%	0.22kPa
12:00	14°C	14°C	16°C	-	84%	0.18kPa
13:00	14°C	14°C	15°C	-	89%	0.15kPa
14:00	14°C	14°C	15°C	-	86%	0.1kPa

How to read: these inputs help produce the derived score; they are not requirements by themselves.

How this forecast is made

Opportunities are threshold-based signals: PhotoWeather checks whether forecast conditions match the rules for a photography scenario. They are planning guidance, not guarantees. Forecasts can change as new model runs arrive, and confidence generally decreases farther into the forecast horizon, so recheck conditions before travelling.

The weather forecast foundation comes through Open-Meteo , which aggregates models from weather agencies. PhotoWeather applies condition-specific thresholds and derived calculations; not every condition uses every model or data input.

How opportunities work → Weather data sources →

Forecast generated

Aug 25, 2026, 1:33 PM UTC

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