Rule Morning Frost

Morning Frost Forecast for Podere Belvedere, Tuscany

San Quirico d'Orcia, Tuscany, Italy

Podere Belvedere sits among cypresses above folded Val d'Orcia fields, with the farmhouse anchoring layered views toward distant ridges.

Currently

Real-time conditions

Frost Probability

Soil Temperature27.1°C

Dew Point11.2°C (moderate dew point)

Wind Speed3.5m/s (calm conditions)

Cloud Cover46%

Upcoming Opportunities

When all conditions match, PhotoWeather marks an opportunity window.

Times shown in Europe/Rome

No opportunities in the next 14 days

See which requirements block the most forecast hours below.

Most common blockers (79-hour forecast)

Frost Probability100% of hours
Time Window88% of hours
Wind Speed78% of hours

How this forecast is evaluated

See which weather signals PhotoWeather uses to identify Morning Frost conditions across Tuscany. The requirements and hourly values below show how those signals apply at Podere Belvedere.

Explore Morning Frost conditions across Tuscany →

Recorded match history

Completed PhotoWeather forecast matches recorded for this exact rule at Podere Belvedere during the last 365 days.

Last 30 days

recorded matching windows

Last 90 days

recorded matching windows

Last 365 days

recorded matching windows · 67% average confidence

Most frequent recorded start hour

06:00 local time, shared by 20 of 56 matches recorded in the last 365 days.

Most represented month

January, with 41 of 56 matches recorded in the last 365 days.

These figures use completed PhotoWeather MatchEvent records from the previous 365 days only. They describe recorded forecast matches, not observations, climatological probability, or a guarantee of future conditions.

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79-hour requirements breakdown

When available, the detailed table below covers only the stated 79-hour horizon (typically 72–168 hours, depending on available hourly data). Opportunity records above span the next 14 days, so this table does not explain that entire 14-day period.

What passed or failed, hour by hour

0matching hours in the next 79 hours

AND logic: all conditions required

Meets requirement

Misses requirement

Time Europe/Rome	Time Window Sunrise -45m to +90m	Frost Probability ≥ 60.0%	Wind Speed ≤ 1.5m/s
Tue, Aug 18
07:00	✓	0%	1.7m/s
08:00	✕	0%	1.8m/s
09:00	✕	0%	1.5m/s
10:00	✕	0%	2m/s
11:00	✕	0%	2.1m/s
12:00	✕	0%	1.6m/s
13:00	✕	0%	2.6m/s
14:00	✕	0%	3.2m/s
15:00	✕	0%	3.7m/s
16:00	✕	0%	3.5m/s
17:00	✕	0%	4.3m/s
18:00	✕	0%	5.4m/s
19:00	✕	0%	4.4m/s
20:00	✕	0%	3.5m/s
21:00	✕	0%	2.2m/s
22:00	✕	0%	1.6m/s
23:00	✕	0%	1.5m/s
Wed, Aug 19
24:00	✕	0%	1.8m/s
01:00	✕	0%	1.3m/s
02:00	✕	0%	1.1m/s
03:00	✕	0%	0.92m/s
04:00	✕	0%	0.86m/s
05:00	✓	0%	0.98m/s
06:00	✓	0%	0.89m/s
07:00	✓	0%	0.95m/s
08:00	✕	0%	0.41m/s
09:00	✕	0%	0.94m/s
10:00	✕	0%	1.9m/s
11:00	✕	0%	2.4m/s
12:00	✕	0%	3m/s
13:00	✕	0%	3.5m/s
14:00	✕	0%	4.4m/s
15:00	✕	0%	5.5m/s
16:00	✕	0%	5.5m/s
17:00	✕	0%	5.5m/s
18:00	✕	0%	5.5m/s
19:00	✕	0%	5.2m/s
20:00	✕	0%	4.8m/s
21:00	✕	0%	3.4m/s
22:00	✕	0%	2.3m/s
23:00	✕	0%	2m/s
Thu, Aug 20
24:00	✕	0%	1.7m/s
01:00	✕	0%	1.7m/s
02:00	✕	0%	1.5m/s
03:00	✕	0%	1.3m/s
04:00	✕	0%	1.2m/s
05:00	✓	0%	1.3m/s
06:00	✓	0%	1.5m/s
07:00	✓	0%	2m/s
08:00	✕	0%	1.4m/s
09:00	✕	0%	0.6m/s
10:00	✕	0%	1.4m/s
11:00	✕	0%	1.4m/s
12:00	✕	0%	2.4m/s
13:00	✕	0%	3.7m/s
14:00	✕	0%	5.6m/s
15:00	✕	0%	5.7m/s
16:00	✕	0%	6.2m/s
17:00	✕	0%	6.6m/s
18:00	✕	0%	6m/s
19:00	✕	0%	4.6m/s
20:00	✕	0%	3.7m/s
21:00	✕	0%	3.1m/s
22:00	✕	0%	2.5m/s
23:00	✕	0%	1.8m/s
Fri, Aug 21
24:00	✕	0%	1.8m/s
01:00	✕	0%	1.8m/s
02:00	✕	0%	1.7m/s
03:00	✕	0%	2.2m/s
04:00	✕	0%	2.7m/s
05:00	✓	0%	3.2m/s
06:00	✓	0%	3.1m/s
07:00	✓	0%	3m/s
08:00	✕	0%	2.9m/s
09:00	✕	0%	4m/s
10:00	✕	0%	5.2m/s
11:00	✕	0%	6.4m/s
12:00	✕	0%	5.8m/s
13:00	✕	0%	5.1m/s

How to read: colored cells show whether each predicate requirement is met; highlighted rows mean the full rule matched (an opportunity).

What does Frost Probability mean?

Inputs that drive the score

This derived score summarizes multiple raw weather signals. The table below shows the supporting inputs hour by hour, so you can see what's pushing the score up or down.

Time Europe/Rome	Dew Point °C	Surface Temperature °C	Temperature °C	Time Window	Total Cloud Coverage %	Vapor Pressure Deficit kPa
Tue, Aug 18 Sunrise 06:22 Sunset 20:11
16:00	11°C	27°C	34°C	-	46%	3.9kPa
17:00	13°C	27°C	33°C	-	53%	3.4kPa
18:00	16°C	28°C	31°C	-	99%	2.6kPa
19:00	17°C	28°C	29°C	-	93%	2kPa
20:00	17°C	28°C	25°C	-	92%	1.3kPa
21:00 ☾	16°C	27°C	24°C	-	5%	1.1kPa
22:00 ☾	16°C	27°C	23°C	-	74%	0.93kPa
23:00 ☾	16°C	27°C	22°C	-	47%	0.83kPa
Wed, Aug 19 Sunrise 06:22 Sunset 20:11
24:00 ☾	16°C	26°C	22°C	-	87%	0.76kPa
01:00 ☾	16°C	26°C	22°C	-	98%	0.74kPa
02:00 ☾	16°C	26°C	21°C	-	100%	0.75kPa
03:00 ☾	16°C	25°C	21°C	-	28%	0.74kPa
04:00 ☾	15°C	25°C	21°C	-	6%	0.71kPa
05:00 ☾	15°C	24°C	20°C	-	99%	0.72kPa
06:00 ☾	14°C	24°C	20°C	-	100%	0.78kPa
07:00	14°C	24°C	21°C	-	100%	0.9kPa
08:00	14°C	24°C	24°C	-	59%	1.3kPa
09:00	14°C	24°C	26°C	-	39%	1.9kPa
10:00	14°C	24°C	28°C	-	97%	2.3kPa
11:00	14°C	25°C	30°C	-	100%	2.8kPa
12:00	13°C	25°C	32°C	-	100%	3.2kPa
13:00	13°C	26°C	33°C	-	79%	3.6kPa
14:00	14°C	27°C	34°C	-	100%	3.8kPa
15:00	14°C	27°C	34°C	-	65%	3.6kPa
16:00	15°C	28°C	33°C	-	88%	3.4kPa
17:00	15°C	28°C	32°C	-	78%	3.1kPa
18:00	16°C	28°C	31°C	-	30%	2.6kPa
19:00	19°C	28°C	28°C	-	100%	1.7kPa
20:00	20°C	28°C	25°C	-	100%	0.85kPa
21:00 ☾	20°C	28°C	23°C	-	79%	0.49kPa
22:00 ☾	20°C	27°C	22°C	-	86%	0.25kPa
23:00 ☾	20°C	27°C	21°C	-	63%	0.19kPa
Thu, Aug 20 Sunrise 06:23 Sunset 20:09
24:00 ☾	20°C	26°C	21°C	-	64%	0.15kPa
01:00 ☾	21°C	26°C	21°C	-	96%	0.13kPa
02:00 ☾	21°C	26°C	21°C	-	65%	0.13kPa
03:00 ☾	21°C	25°C	21°C	-	6%	0.12kPa
04:00 ☾	20°C	25°C	21°C	-	5%	0.12kPa
05:00 ☾	20°C	25°C	21°C	-	5%	0.12kPa
06:00 ☾	20°C	25°C	21°C	-	4%	0.12kPa
07:00	20°C	24°C	21°C	-	6%	0.15kPa
08:00	20°C	24°C	24°C	-	5%	0.5kPa
09:00	20°C	24°C	26°C	-	5%	1kPa
10:00	19°C	25°C	28°C	-	3%	1.6kPa
11:00	18°C	25°C	30°C	-	100%	2.2kPa
12:00	17°C	26°C	32°C	-	92%	2.8kPa
13:00	17°C	26°C	33°C	-	5%	3.2kPa
14:00	17°C	27°C	34°C	-	98%	3.4kPa
15:00	17°C	28°C	34°C	-	100%	3.4kPa
16:00	17°C	28°C	33°C	-	62%	3.1kPa
17:00	17°C	28°C	31°C	-	26%	2.6kPa
18:00	17°C	28°C	29°C	-	94%	2kPa
19:00	19°C	28°C	27°C	-	82%	1.4kPa
20:00	19°C	28°C	25°C	-	31%	1kPa
21:00 ☾	20°C	27°C	24°C	-	54%	0.69kPa
22:00 ☾	20°C	26°C	23°C	-	77%	0.4kPa
23:00 ☾	20°C	25°C	21°C	-	100%	0.17kPa
Fri, Aug 21 Sunrise 06:24 Sunset 20:08
24:00 ☾	20°C	25°C	22°C	-	72%	0.23kPa
01:00 ☾	21°C	24°C	23°C	-	44%	0.3kPa
02:00 ☾	21°C	24°C	23°C	-	16%	0.37kPa
03:00 ☾	21°C	24°C	24°C	-	40%	0.54kPa
04:00 ☾	21°C	24°C	25°C	-	64%	0.72kPa
05:00 ☾	21°C	25°C	26°C	-	88%	0.92kPa
06:00 ☾	21°C	25°C	26°C	-	79%	0.88kPa
07:00	21°C	25°C	26°C	-	70%	0.83kPa
08:00	21°C	25°C	25°C	-	60%	0.78kPa
09:00	20°C	25°C	26°C	-	73%	1.1kPa
10:00	18°C	25°C	27°C	-	86%	1.6kPa
11:00	16°C	26°C	28°C	-	99%	2kPa
12:00	17°C	26°C	27°C	-	67%	1.5kPa
13:00	18°C	26°C	25°C	-	34%	1.1kPa
14:00	18°C	26°C	24°C	-	2%	0.8kPa
15:00	19°C	25°C	23°C	-	2%	0.61kPa

How to read: these inputs help produce the derived score; they are not requirements by themselves.

How this forecast is made

Opportunities are threshold-based signals: PhotoWeather checks whether forecast conditions match the rules for a photography scenario. They are planning guidance, not guarantees. Forecasts can change as new model runs arrive, and confidence generally decreases farther into the forecast horizon, so recheck conditions before travelling.

The weather forecast foundation comes through Open-Meteo , which aggregates models from weather agencies. PhotoWeather applies condition-specific thresholds and derived calculations; not every condition uses every model or data input.

How opportunities work → Weather data sources →

Forecast generated

Aug 18, 2026, 1:29 PM UTC

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