Rule Morning Frost

Morning Frost Forecast for Luleå, Swedish Lapland

Luleå, Norrbotten, Sweden

Luleå’s low Baltic archipelago freezes into ice routes and snow-covered islands, contrasting harbour structures with an unusually flat Arctic seascape.

Currently

Real-time conditions

Frost Probability

Soil Temperature9725.9°C

Dew Point9.9°C (moderate dew point)

Wind Speed3.5m/s (calm conditions)

Cloud Cover84%

Upcoming Opportunities

When all conditions match, PhotoWeather marks an opportunity window.

Times shown in Europe/Stockholm

No opportunities in the next 14 days

See which requirements block the most forecast hours below.

Most common blockers (74-hour forecast)

Frost Probability100% of hours
Wind Speed99% of hours
Time Window88% of hours

How this forecast is evaluated

See which weather signals PhotoWeather uses to identify Morning Frost conditions across Swedish Lapland. The requirements and hourly values below show how those signals apply at Luleå.

Explore Morning Frost conditions across Swedish Lapland →

Recorded match history

Completed PhotoWeather forecast matches recorded for this exact rule at Luleå during the last 365 days.

Last 30 days

recorded matching windows

Last 90 days

recorded matching windows

Last 365 days

recorded matching windows · 70% average confidence

Most represented month

February, with 7 of 12 matches recorded in the last 365 days.

These figures use completed PhotoWeather MatchEvent records from the previous 365 days only. They describe recorded forecast matches, not observations, climatological probability, or a guarantee of future conditions.

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74-hour requirements breakdown

When available, the detailed table below covers only the stated 74-hour horizon (typically 72–168 hours, depending on available hourly data). Opportunity records above span the next 14 days, so this table does not explain that entire 14-day period.

What passed or failed, hour by hour

0matching hours in the next 74 hours

AND logic: all conditions required

Meets requirement

Misses requirement

Time Europe/Stockholm	Time Window Sunrise -45m to +90m	Frost Probability ≥ 60.0%	Wind Speed ≤ 1.5m/s
Tue, Aug 25
06:00	✓	0%	4.1m/s
07:00	✕	0%	4.1m/s
08:00	✕	0%	4.1m/s
09:00	✕	0%	3.7m/s
10:00	✕	0%	3.5m/s
11:00	✕	0%	3m/s
12:00	✕	0%	2.6m/s
13:00	✕	0%	1.7m/s
14:00	✕	0%	1.2m/s
15:00	✕	0%	1.5m/s
16:00	✕	0%	2.4m/s
17:00	✕	0%	2.4m/s
18:00	✕	0%	3.2m/s
19:00	✕	0%	3.3m/s
20:00	✕	0%	3.3m/s
21:00	✕	0%	4.8m/s
22:00	✕	0%	5.1m/s
23:00	✕	0%	5.2m/s
Wed, Aug 26
24:00	✕	0%	5.5m/s
01:00	✕	0%	5.4m/s
02:00	✕	0%	5.1m/s
03:00	✕	0%	4.8m/s
04:00	✓	0%	4.6m/s
05:00	✓	0%	4.6m/s
06:00	✓	0%	4.5m/s
07:00	✕	0%	3.9m/s
08:00	✕	0%	3.5m/s
09:00	✕	0%	3.4m/s
10:00	✕	0%	3.9m/s
11:00	✕	0%	3.6m/s
12:00	✕	0%	2.7m/s
13:00	✕	0%	2.1m/s
14:00	✕	0%	1.9m/s
15:00	✕	0%	1.9m/s
16:00	✕	0%	2.2m/s
17:00	✕	0%	2.6m/s
18:00	✕	0%	2.7m/s
19:00	✕	0%	3.3m/s
20:00	✕	0%	3.5m/s
21:00	✕	0%	3.6m/s
22:00	✕	0%	3.3m/s
23:00	✕	0%	3.4m/s
Thu, Aug 27
24:00	✕	0%	3.9m/s
01:00	✕	0%	3.7m/s
02:00	✕	0%	3.2m/s
03:00	✕	0%	3m/s
04:00	✓	0%	2.9m/s
05:00	✓	0%	3m/s
06:00	✓	0%	3.2m/s
07:00	✕	0%	3.9m/s
08:00	✕	0%	4.5m/s
09:00	✕	0%	4.5m/s
10:00	✕	0%	4.8m/s
11:00	✕	0%	5.1m/s
12:00	✕	0%	5.4m/s
13:00	✕	0%	5.4m/s
14:00	✕	0%	5.3m/s
15:00	✕	0%	4.6m/s
16:00	✕	0%	3.8m/s
17:00	✕	0%	3.1m/s
18:00	✕	0%	2.9m/s
19:00	✕	0%	2.8m/s
20:00	✕	0%	2.6m/s
21:00	✕	0%	2.5m/s
22:00	✕	0%	2.5m/s
23:00	✕	0%	2.5m/s
Fri, Aug 28
24:00	✕	0%	2.6m/s
01:00	✕	0%	2.7m/s
02:00	✕	0%	2.7m/s
03:00	✕	0%	3.3m/s
04:00	✓	0%	3.8m/s
05:00	✓	0%	4.4m/s
06:00	✓	0%	4.6m/s
07:00	✕	0%	4.8m/s

How to read: colored cells show whether each predicate requirement is met; highlighted rows mean the full rule matched (an opportunity).

What does Frost Probability mean?

Inputs that drive the score

This derived score summarizes multiple raw weather signals. The table below shows the supporting inputs hour by hour, so you can see what's pushing the score up or down.

Time Europe/Stockholm	Dew Point °C	Surface Temperature °C	Temperature °C	Time Window	Total Cloud Coverage %	Vapor Pressure Deficit kPa
Tue, Aug 25 Sunrise 04:45 Sunset 20:18
10:00	9.9°C	9726°C	15°C	-	84%	0.5kPa
11:00	9.9°C	9726°C	16°C	-	95%	0.6kPa
12:00	9.9°C	9726°C	17°C	-	59%	0.7kPa
13:00	10°C	9726°C	17°C	-	21%	0.75kPa
14:00	11°C	9726°C	18°C	-	5%	0.74kPa
15:00	10°C	9726°C	18°C	-	21%	0.76kPa
16:00	11°C	9726°C	17°C	-	64%	0.68kPa
17:00	11°C	9726°C	16°C	-	51%	0.59kPa
18:00	11°C	9726°C	16°C	-	96%	0.56kPa
19:00	11°C	9726°C	16°C	-	100%	0.49kPa
20:00	11°C	9726°C	16°C	-	100%	0.49kPa
21:00 ☾	10°C	9726°C	16°C	-	83%	0.53kPa
22:00 ☾	10°C	9726°C	15°C	-	41%	0.46kPa
23:00 ☾	9.9°C	9726°C	14°C	-	44%	0.41kPa
Wed, Aug 26 Sunrise 04:45 Sunset 20:18
24:00 ☾	9.8°C	9726°C	14°C	-	12%	0.41kPa
01:00 ☾	9.5°C	9726°C	13°C	-	5%	0.32kPa
02:00 ☾	9.2°C	9726°C	12°C	-	5%	0.26kPa
03:00 ☾	8.9°C	9726°C	12°C	-	5%	0.24kPa
04:00 ☾	8.6°C	9726°C	12°C	-	5%	0.24kPa
05:00	8.5°C	9726°C	11°C	-	79%	0.24kPa
06:00	8.6°C	9726°C	12°C	-	83%	0.26kPa
07:00	8.7°C	9726°C	12°C	-	62%	0.32kPa
08:00	8.4°C	9726°C	13°C	-	84%	0.4kPa
09:00	8°C	9726°C	14°C	-	100%	0.5kPa
10:00	8°C	9726°C	14°C	-	100%	0.55kPa
11:00	8.3°C	9726°C	15°C	-	85%	0.56kPa
12:00	8.3°C	9726°C	15°C	-	95%	0.59kPa
13:00	8.3°C	9726°C	15°C	-	19%	0.61kPa
14:00	8°C	9726°C	15°C	-	36%	0.65kPa
15:00	7.7°C	9726°C	15°C	-	11%	0.66kPa
16:00	7.7°C	9726°C	15°C	-	46%	0.66kPa
17:00	8.3°C	9726°C	15°C	-	79%	0.59kPa
18:00	8.5°C	9726°C	15°C	-	95%	0.55kPa
19:00	8.6°C	9726°C	15°C	-	99%	0.54kPa
20:00	8.8°C	9726°C	14°C	-	100%	0.51kPa
21:00 ☾	9.1°C	9726°C	14°C	-	100%	0.48kPa
22:00 ☾	9.4°C	9726°C	14°C	-	100%	0.44kPa
23:00 ☾	9.9°C	9726°C	14°C	-	100%	0.39kPa
Thu, Aug 27 Sunrise 04:49 Sunset 20:15
24:00 ☾	10°C	9726°C	14°C	-	100%	0.36kPa
01:00 ☾	10°C	9726°C	14°C	-	97%	0.32kPa
02:00 ☾	10°C	9726°C	13°C	-	96%	0.31kPa
03:00 ☾	9.6°C	9726°C	13°C	-	82%	0.33kPa
04:00 ☾	9.4°C	9726°C	13°C	-	69%	0.33kPa
05:00	9.8°C	9726°C	13°C	-	78%	0.31kPa
06:00	10°C	9726°C	13°C	-	100%	0.3kPa
07:00	10°C	9726°C	14°C	-	100%	0.3kPa
08:00	11°C	9726°C	14°C	-	100%	0.29kPa
09:00	11°C	9726°C	14°C	-	100%	0.28kPa
10:00	11°C	9726°C	14°C	-	100%	0.27kPa
11:00	11°C	9726°C	14°C	-	93%	0.31kPa
12:00	11°C	9726°C	15°C	-	99%	0.35kPa
13:00	11°C	9726°C	15°C	-	93%	0.36kPa
14:00	11°C	9726°C	15°C	-	100%	0.36kPa
15:00	11°C	6488°C	14°C	-	100%	0.32kPa
16:00	11°C	3251°C	14°C	-	99%	0.27kPa
17:00	11°C	13°C	14°C	-	99%	0.23kPa
18:00	11°C	13°C	13°C	-	94%	0.21kPa
19:00	11°C	13°C	13°C	-	89%	0.19kPa
20:00	10°C	13°C	12°C	-	84%	0.17kPa
21:00 ☾	10°C	13°C	12°C	-	89%	0.16kPa
22:00 ☾	10°C	13°C	12°C	-	93%	0.16kPa
23:00 ☾	10°C	12°C	12°C	-	98%	0.15kPa
Fri, Aug 28 Sunrise 04:52 Sunset 20:11
24:00 ☾	10°C	12°C	12°C	-	98%	0.19kPa
01:00 ☾	11°C	12°C	13°C	-	99%	0.22kPa
02:00 ☾	11°C	12°C	14°C	-	100%	0.27kPa
03:00 ☾	11°C	13°C	15°C	-	100%	0.34kPa
04:00 ☾	11°C	13°C	16°C	-	100%	0.43kPa
05:00	11°C	13°C	16°C	-	100%	0.52kPa
06:00	12°C	13°C	17°C	-	91%	0.56kPa
07:00	12°C	13°C	17°C	-	81%	0.59kPa
08:00	12°C	13°C	18°C	-	72%	0.64kPa
09:00	12°C	14°C	17°C	-	50%	0.54kPa

How to read: these inputs help produce the derived score; they are not requirements by themselves.

How this forecast is made

Opportunities are threshold-based signals: PhotoWeather checks whether forecast conditions match the rules for a photography scenario. They are planning guidance, not guarantees. Forecasts can change as new model runs arrive, and confidence generally decreases farther into the forecast horizon, so recheck conditions before travelling.

The weather forecast foundation comes through Open-Meteo , which aggregates models from weather agencies. PhotoWeather applies condition-specific thresholds and derived calculations; not every condition uses every model or data input.

How opportunities work → Weather data sources →

Forecast generated

Aug 25, 2026, 7:29 AM UTC

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