Rule Morning Frost

Morning Frost Forecast for Kiruna, Swedish Lapland

Kiruna, Norrbotten, Sweden

Kiruna sits amid low mountains, boreal forest, and mine-shaped terrain, with open country beyond town providing dark skies and winter forms.

Currently

Real-time conditions

Frost Probability

Soil Temperature11.0°C

Dew Point7.2°C (moderate dew point)

Wind Speed6.6m/s (moderate winds)

Cloud Cover96%

Upcoming Opportunities

When all conditions match, PhotoWeather marks an opportunity window.

Times shown in Europe/Stockholm

No opportunities in the next 14 days

See which requirements block the most forecast hours below.

Most common blockers (75-hour forecast)

Frost Probability100% of hours
Time Window86% of hours
Wind Speed74% of hours

How this forecast is evaluated

See which weather signals PhotoWeather uses to identify Morning Frost conditions across Swedish Lapland. The requirements and hourly values below show how those signals apply at Kiruna.

Explore Morning Frost conditions across Swedish Lapland →

Recorded match history

Completed PhotoWeather forecast matches recorded for this exact rule at Kiruna during the last 365 days.

Last 30 days

recorded matching windows

Last 90 days

recorded matching windows

Last 365 days

recorded matching windows · 67% average confidence

Most frequent recorded start hour

09:00 local time, shared by 4 of 16 matches recorded in the last 365 days.

Most represented month

February, with 12 of 16 matches recorded in the last 365 days.

These figures use completed PhotoWeather MatchEvent records from the previous 365 days only. They describe recorded forecast matches, not observations, climatological probability, or a guarantee of future conditions.

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75-hour requirements breakdown

When available, the detailed table below covers only the stated 75-hour horizon (typically 72–168 hours, depending on available hourly data). Opportunity records above span the next 14 days, so this table does not explain that entire 14-day period.

What passed or failed, hour by hour

0matching hours in the next 75 hours

AND logic: all conditions required

Meets requirement

Misses requirement

Time Europe/Stockholm	Time Window Sunrise -45m to +90m	Frost Probability ≥ 60.0%	Wind Speed ≤ 1.5m/s
Tue, Aug 25
06:00	✓	0%	4.4m/s
07:00	✕	0%	5m/s
08:00	✕	0%	6.1m/s
09:00	✕	0%	5.3m/s
10:00	✕	0%	6.6m/s
11:00	✕	0%	7m/s
12:00	✕	0%	6.6m/s
13:00	✕	0%	6m/s
14:00	✕	0%	5.3m/s
15:00	✕	0%	4.9m/s
16:00	✕	0%	4.9m/s
17:00	✕	0%	5m/s
18:00	✕	0%	4.7m/s
19:00	✕	0%	4.3m/s
20:00	✕	0%	4.1m/s
21:00	✕	0%	3.9m/s
22:00	✕	0%	3.2m/s
23:00	✕	0%	2.6m/s
Wed, Aug 26
24:00	✕	0%	2.2m/s
01:00	✕	0%	2m/s
02:00	✕	0%	1.7m/s
03:00	✓	0%	1.2m/s
04:00	✓	0%	0.98m/s
05:00	✓	0%	0.45m/s
06:00	✓	0%	0.31m/s
07:00	✕	0%	0.42m/s
08:00	✕	0%	1.3m/s
09:00	✕	0%	2m/s
10:00	✕	0%	2m/s
11:00	✕	0%	1.3m/s
12:00	✕	0%	0.92m/s
13:00	✕	0%	1.5m/s
14:00	✕	0%	2.3m/s
15:00	✕	0%	2.5m/s
16:00	✕	0%	2.1m/s
17:00	✕	0%	1m/s
18:00	✕	0%	0.67m/s
19:00	✕	0%	2.8m/s
20:00	✕	0%	3.3m/s
21:00	✕	0%	2.8m/s
22:00	✕	0%	2.5m/s
23:00	✕	0%	2.4m/s
Thu, Aug 27
24:00	✕	0%	2.3m/s
01:00	✕	0%	2.2m/s
02:00	✕	0%	2m/s
03:00	✕	0%	1.5m/s
04:00	✓	0%	1.1m/s
05:00	✓	0%	1m/s
06:00	✓	0%	1.1m/s
07:00	✕	0%	1m/s
08:00	✕	0%	1.5m/s
09:00	✕	0%	2.1m/s
10:00	✕	0%	2.3m/s
11:00	✕	0%	2.6m/s
12:00	✕	0%	2.5m/s
13:00	✕	0%	2.3m/s
14:00	✕	0%	1.7m/s
15:00	✕	0%	1.5m/s
16:00	✕	0%	1.6m/s
17:00	✕	0%	2.1m/s
18:00	✕	0%	2.7m/s
19:00	✕	0%	3.2m/s
20:00	✕	0%	1.7m/s
21:00	✕	0%	1.6m/s
22:00	✕	0%	1.5m/s
23:00	✕	0%	1.3m/s
Fri, Aug 28
24:00	✕	0%	1.5m/s
01:00	✕	0%	1.6m/s
02:00	✕	0%	1.7m/s
03:00	✕	0%	2.3m/s
04:00	✓	0%	2.8m/s
05:00	✓	0%	3.3m/s
06:00	✓	0%	3.6m/s
07:00	✕	0%	3.9m/s
08:00	✕	0%	4.2m/s

How to read: colored cells show whether each predicate requirement is met; highlighted rows mean the full rule matched (an opportunity).

What does Frost Probability mean?

Inputs that drive the score

This derived score summarizes multiple raw weather signals. The table below shows the supporting inputs hour by hour, so you can see what's pushing the score up or down.

Time Europe/Stockholm	Dew Point °C	Surface Temperature °C	Temperature °C	Time Window	Total Cloud Coverage %	Vapor Pressure Deficit kPa
Tue, Aug 25 Sunrise 04:39 Sunset 20:39
10:00	7.2°C	11°C	14°C	-	96%	0.61kPa
11:00	7°C	11°C	14°C	-	100%	0.63kPa
12:00	6.9°C	11°C	14°C	-	99%	0.62kPa
13:00	6.8°C	12°C	15°C	-	95%	0.68kPa
14:00	6.6°C	12°C	15°C	-	86%	0.71kPa
15:00	6.5°C	12°C	15°C	-	76%	0.7kPa
16:00	6.4°C	12°C	14°C	-	99%	0.65kPa
17:00	6.9°C	12°C	13°C	-	97%	0.53kPa
18:00	7.1°C	12°C	12°C	-	98%	0.43kPa
19:00	7.1°C	12°C	12°C	-	100%	0.4kPa
20:00	6.9°C	12°C	11°C	-	100%	0.34kPa
21:00 ☾	6.4°C	12°C	10°C	-	100%	0.28kPa
22:00 ☾	6.2°C	12°C	9.7°C	-	100%	0.26kPa
23:00 ☾	6°C	11°C	8.9°C	-	100%	0.21kPa
Wed, Aug 26 Sunrise 04:39 Sunset 20:39
24:00 ☾	5.6°C	11°C	8.4°C	-	92%	0.19kPa
01:00 ☾	5.4°C	11°C	8°C	-	98%	0.18kPa
02:00 ☾	5°C	10°C	7.4°C	-	100%	0.16kPa
03:00 ☾	4.9°C	9.9°C	7.2°C	-	100%	0.15kPa
04:00 ☾	5.9°C	9.7°C	8.4°C	-	100%	0.18kPa
05:00	6.1°C	9.5°C	8.9°C	-	100%	0.2kPa
06:00	6.5°C	9.4°C	9.2°C	-	100%	0.2kPa
07:00	6.6°C	9.3°C	10°C	-	100%	0.27kPa
08:00	6.4°C	9.4°C	11°C	-	100%	0.34kPa
09:00	6.3°C	9.6°C	11°C	-	79%	0.37kPa
10:00	6.4°C	9.9°C	12°C	-	83%	0.41kPa
11:00	6.3°C	10°C	12°C	-	62%	0.47kPa
12:00	6.1°C	11°C	13°C	-	65%	0.55kPa
13:00	6.1°C	11°C	14°C	-	88%	0.61kPa
14:00	6.3°C	11°C	14°C	-	98%	0.61kPa
15:00	6.4°C	12°C	14°C	-	92%	0.62kPa
16:00	6.2°C	12°C	15°C	-	78%	0.71kPa
17:00	5.6°C	12°C	15°C	-	53%	0.78kPa
18:00	6.4°C	12°C	15°C	-	44%	0.7kPa
19:00	8.1°C	12°C	13°C	-	96%	0.39kPa
20:00	7.6°C	12°C	11°C	-	100%	0.24kPa
21:00 ☾	7.2°C	12°C	9.3°C	-	98%	0.16kPa
22:00 ☾	7°C	11°C	9.1°C	-	77%	0.16kPa
23:00 ☾	6.5°C	11°C	8.4°C	-	43%	0.14kPa
Thu, Aug 27 Sunrise 04:43 Sunset 20:35
24:00 ☾	6°C	11°C	7.5°C	-	16%	0.11kPa
01:00 ☾	5.6°C	10°C	7°C	-	59%	0.09kPa
02:00 ☾	5.1°C	9.9°C	6.4°C	-	62%	0.08kPa
03:00 ☾	5°C	9.5°C	6°C	-	45%	0.06kPa
04:00 ☾	4.5°C	9.1°C	5.1°C	-	19%	0.04kPa
05:00	4.3°C	8.7°C	4.7°C	-	30%	0.02kPa
06:00	5.5°C	8.4°C	6°C	-	37%	0.03kPa
07:00	6.6°C	8.4°C	7.5°C	-	48%	0.06kPa
08:00	6.8°C	8.5°C	8.2°C	-	69%	0.11kPa
09:00	7°C	8.7°C	8.9°C	-	97%	0.14kPa
10:00	6.8°C	8.9°C	9.4°C	-	100%	0.19kPa
11:00	6.8°C	9°C	9.6°C	-	100%	0.21kPa
12:00	6.9°C	9.1°C	9.9°C	-	100%	0.23kPa
13:00	7°C	9.3°C	10°C	-	100%	0.25kPa
14:00	7.1°C	9.4°C	11°C	-	100%	0.28kPa
15:00	7.2°C	9.6°C	11°C	-	100%	0.31kPa
16:00	7.2°C	9.8°C	12°C	-	86%	0.34kPa
17:00	7.5°C	9.9°C	12°C	-	78%	0.34kPa
18:00	7.8°C	10°C	12°C	-	73%	0.33kPa
19:00	8.3°C	10°C	11°C	-	55%	0.25kPa
20:00	7°C	9.9°C	8.4°C	-	37%	0.1kPa
21:00 ☾	6.2°C	9.3°C	7.4°C	-	27%	0.08kPa
22:00 ☾	5.4°C	8.7°C	6.4°C	-	17%	0.06kPa
23:00 ☾	4.6°C	8.2°C	5.4°C	-	7%	0.05kPa
Fri, Aug 28 Sunrise 04:47 Sunset 20:31
24:00 ☾	5.8°C	8.1°C	6.9°C	-	20%	0.07kPa
01:00 ☾	6.9°C	8.1°C	8.5°C	-	33%	0.11kPa
02:00 ☾	8.1°C	8.1°C	10°C	-	45%	0.15kPa
03:00 ☾	8.5°C	8.4°C	11°C	-	64%	0.22kPa
04:00 ☾	8.9°C	8.8°C	13°C	-	82%	0.31kPa
05:00	9.2°C	9.2°C	14°C	-	100%	0.41kPa
06:00	9.4°C	9.6°C	14°C	-	77%	0.46kPa
07:00	9.5°C	10°C	15°C	-	54%	0.51kPa
08:00	9.6°C	10°C	16°C	-	32%	0.57kPa
09:00	9.7°C	11°C	16°C	-	47%	0.61kPa

How to read: these inputs help produce the derived score; they are not requirements by themselves.

How this forecast is made

Opportunities are threshold-based signals: PhotoWeather checks whether forecast conditions match the rules for a photography scenario. They are planning guidance, not guarantees. Forecasts can change as new model runs arrive, and confidence generally decreases farther into the forecast horizon, so recheck conditions before travelling.

The weather forecast foundation comes through Open-Meteo , which aggregates models from weather agencies. PhotoWeather applies condition-specific thresholds and derived calculations; not every condition uses every model or data input.

How opportunities work → Weather data sources →

Forecast generated

Aug 25, 2026, 7:29 AM UTC

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